Abstract P053: Increment And Stabilization Of Diabetes Prevalence In The Province Of Quebec, Canada: A Combination Of Lower Mortality And Incidence In Older Adults Only
Introduction: In the last decade, an increase in the prevalence and a reduction in the incidence of diabetes have been observed in many countries including Canada. Yet, some Canadian provinces depicted an elevation in incidence rates among younger age groups. Our objective was to document these trends in the province of Quebec from fiscal years 2001 to 2017. Hypothesis: Prevalence is increasing because of raising incidence in individuals aged <50 years. Methods: Prevalence, incidence and all-cause mortality among cases of diabetes ≥20 years were assessed using the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System (n=6,551,045 in 2017). Estimations were age-standardized or stratified by 10-year age groups. Results: In 2017, the crude prevalence and incidence of diabetes were 9.9% [99% confidence interval: 9.9-10.0] (n=651,370) and 6.0 per 1,000 inhabitants [5.9-6.0] (n=35,355), respectively. Between 2001 and 2017, the age-standardized prevalence increased by 43% (6.3% [6.3-6.3] to 9.0% [9.0-9.1]), while age-standardized incidence decreased by 29% (8.3 per 1,000 [8.2-8.4] to 5.9 per 1,000 [5.9-6.0]). In every age group, the prevalence increased steadily with progressive stabilization from 2011 and onward, except for the 60-69 years old group who depicted a reduction from 2012 to 2017. Incidence remained stable among <50 years old, while it decreased for ≥50 years (-26%, -33%, -36% for 50-59, 60-69 and ≥70 years old, respectively) (Figure 1). Age-standardized mortality among adults with diabetes decreased by 24% (20.7 per 1,000 [20.1-21.3] to 15.8 per 1,000 [15.4-16.3]). Mortality rates decreased by 27% among the 40-49 years old, with greater reductions in older age groups (-28%, -35%, -34% in the 50-59, 60-69 and ≥70 years, respectively). Conclusions: The rise and stabilization of diabetes prevalence could be due to a reduction in incidence in patients aged ≥50 years and mortality among all age groups. Prevention of diabetes should be a priority among individuals aged <50 years as diabetes incidence is not decreasing.