Unpacking Presidential Satisfaction: Preliminary Insights from Survey Data on the Bottom Poor in Metro Manila

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Tristan A. Canare ◽  
Ronald U. Mendoza ◽  
Jurel K. Yap ◽  
Leonardo M. Jaminola ◽  
Gabrielle Ann S. Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Low Income ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
Voting Age ◽  
Survey Results

Abstract Measures of presidential satisfaction have long been in the public’s attention, but the factors that drive them have brought about much discussion. As a contribution to the literature, this study empirically examines presidential approval data in the Philippines using a unique survey of 1200 low-income voting age residents of Metro Manila. Using individual-level data, this study unpacks the possible factors underpinning survey results on citizens’ satisfaction with leadership in the Philippines. While accounting for the personal circumstances of the respondents, this study finds evidence of bandwagoning among survey respondents; and partial evidence of personal economic conditions and disinformation possibly linked to presidential satisfaction. The findings here suggest there should be more caution in interpreting presidential satisfaction indicators.

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Martin Vinæs Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Economic Vote ◽  
The Government

AbstractDoes the importance of the economy change during a government's time in office? Governments arguably become more responsible for current economic conditions as their tenure progresses. This might lead voters to hold experienced governments more accountable for economic conditions. However, voters also accumulate information about governments' competence over time. If voters are Bayesian learners, then this growing stock of information should crowd out the importance of current economic conditions. This article explores these divergent predictions about the relationship between tenure and the economic vote using three datasets. First, using country-level data from a diverse set of elections, the study finds that support for more experienced governments is less dependent on economic growth. Secondly, using individual-level data from sixty election surveys covering ten countries, the article shows that voters' perceptions of the economy have a greater impact on government support when the government is inexperienced. Finally, the article examines a municipal reform in Denmark that assigned some voters to new local incumbents and finds that these voters responded more strongly to the local economy. In conclusion, all three studies point in the same direction: economic voting decreases with time in office.

Economic Inequality and Social Entrepreneurship

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (6) ◽  
pp. 1150-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saurav Pathak ◽  
Etayankara Muralidharan
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Social Entrepreneurship ◽  
Economic Inequality ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Income Mobility ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data

This article explores the extent to which income inequality and income mobility—both considered indicators of economic inequality and conditions of formal regulatory institutions (government activism)—facilitate or constrain the emergence of social entrepreneurship. Using 77,983 individual-level responses obtained from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey of 26 countries, and supplementing with country-level data obtained from the Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum, our results from multilevel analyses demonstrate that country-level income inequality increases the likelihood of individual-level engagement in social entrepreneurship, while income mobility decreases this likelihood. Further, income mobility negatively moderates the influence of income inequality on social entrepreneurship, such that the condition of low income mobility and high income inequality is a stronger predictor of social entrepreneurship. We discuss implications and limitations of our study, and we suggest avenues for future research.

See No Evil: Heterogeneity in Public Perceptions of Corruption

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya V. Tverdova
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
System Level ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
The Government ◽  
Situation Économique ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
People’S Perceptions

Abstract.This paper investigates how people form perceptions about corruption. By combining survey data with system-level indicators in 30 countries, the author first explores the relationship between elite and mass evaluations of corruption. Furthermore, the author tests a series of hypotheses pertaining to how individual-level factors, such as political allegiances, personal economic conditions and education may influence people's perceptions. The findings reveal that mass assessments of corruption track closely those of the elites. In addition, more economically fortunate individuals and those who supported the government in the previous election tend to be less critical of corruption. The effect of education is contingent on a country's level of corruption. Specifically, more educated citizens in “cleaner” countries do not see as much corruption as their less educated counterparts. However, this difference is substantively modest.Résumé.Cet article étudie la façon dont le public établit sa perception de la corruption. En utilisant conjointement les informations données par les enquêtes d'opinion et par les indicateurs de pointage de 30 pays, l'auteur va d'abord explorer les évaluations de la corruption des élites et celles de la masse populaire. De plus, l'auteur va tester une série d'hypothèses concernant la façon dont la perception du public est influencée par des facteurs personnels, l'appartenance politique par exemple, ou par la situation économique personnelle ou l'éducation. Les résultats révèlent que les jugements de la masse sur la corruption suivent de près ceux des élites. De plus, les individus plus fortunés ou ceux qui ont voté pour le gouvernement aux dernières élections ont tendance à se montrer moins critiques au sujet de la corruption. L'effet de l'éducation est aléatoire quant au niveau de corruption d' un pays. En particulier, dans les pays considérés comme les plus « propres », les citoyens plus éduqués constatent moins la corruption que ceux qui sont moins éduqués. La différence cependant est extrêmement modeste.

scholarly journals Accessibility Analysis of the South Commuter Railway Project of the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jiang ◽  
◽  
Liming Chen ◽  
Eugenia Go ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Urban Transport ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
The South ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
Labor Market Matching ◽  
Improve Access

This brief outlines findings on how the 54.6 km South Commuter Railway (SCR) to be built between Metro Manila and Laguna province in the Philippines is expected to improve access to jobs. A quantitative analysis estimates that residents of cities and municipalities with an SCR station will be able to reach an average of 300,000 extra jobs within a 1-hour commute—an increase of 15.3% in the south and 8.5% in Metro Manila. This could lead to better labor market matching, higher income for workers and more job opportunities for low-income households. The study contributes to efforts to quantify the wider economic benefits of infrastructure projects, especially efficient urban transport systems.

scholarly journals Representativeness of individual-level data in COVID-19 phone surveys: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0258877
Author(s):  
Joshua Brubaker ◽  
Talip Kilic ◽  
Philip Wollburg
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sampling Weights ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Phone Survey ◽  
General Adult Population ◽  
Household Heads

The COVID-19 pandemic has created urgent demand for timely data, leading to a surge in mobile phone surveys for tracking the impacts of and responses to the pandemic. Using data from national phone surveys implemented in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda during the pandemic and the pre-COVID-19 national face-to-face surveys that served as the sampling frames for the phone surveys, this paper documents selection the biases in individual-level analyses based on phone survey data. In most cases, individual-level data are available only for phone survey respondents, who we find are more likely to be household heads or their spouses and non-farm enterprise owners, and on average, are older and better educated vis-a-vis the general adult population. These differences are the result of uneven access to mobile phones in the population and the way that phone survey respondents are selected. To improve the representativeness of individual-level analysis using phone survey data, we recalibrate the phone survey sampling weights based on propensity score adjustments that are derived from a model of an individual’s likelihood of being interviewed as a function of individual- and household-level attributes. We find that reweighting improves the representativeness of the estimates for phone survey respondents, moving them closer to those of the general adult population. This holds for both women and men and for a range of demographic, education, and labor market outcomes. However, reweighting increases the variance of the estimates and, in most cases, fails to overcome selection biases. This indicates limitations to deriving representative individual-level estimates from phone survey data. Obtaining reliable data on men and women through future phone surveys will require random selection of adult interviewees within sampled households.

scholarly journals Alternative Legacies of Authoritarianism: Pro-dictator Bias in Ideology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghoon Kim-Leffingwell
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Party Strength

How does an authoritarian past shape voters’ left-right orientation? Recent studies investigate “anti-dictator bias” in political ideology, where citizens in a former right-wing (left-wing) dictatorship may display a leftist (rightist) bias in their ideological self-identification. In this paper, I provide evidence for a “pro-dictator bias” where citizens hold ideological positions corresponding to those of the dictator depending on their experiences during and after transition. In countries with negotiated transitions and stronger former ruling parties, these successors could continue mobilizing the popular base of the former dictatorship with inherited advantages from the past and by invoking nostalgia through consistent reference to previous authoritarian achievements. I test this hypothesis with variables measuring successor party strength and the type of regime transition by combining individual-level survey data and country-level data. The findings emphasize the role of post-transition features in shaping alternative legacies on voter attitudes in former authoritarian societies.

Access to Information and Other Correlates of Vote Buying and Selling Behaviour: Insights from Philippine Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 026010792110346
Author(s):  
Tristan Canare ◽  
Ronald U. Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Vote Buying ◽  
Political Behaviour ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Metro Manila

Access to information is a key factor influencing political behaviour and decisions. Recent studies on vote buying and selling have tried to unpack the possible drivers behind this phenomenon; yet, few studies have empirically examined the role of different sources of information. This study contributes to the nascent literature in this area by turning to a unique dataset from a survey of low-income voters in Metro Manila, the Philippines. It empirically examined the relationship between access to information and vote selling behaviour by low-income voters. It also studied other correlates of vote selling and the possible factors linked to receiving an offer. The results suggest that the quantity of information has no significant relationship with the likelihood of accepting the offer and voting for the candidate for whom the offer was made. However, the quality of information does matter. In particular, access to sources of ‘good quality information’ is negatively associated with completing the vote selling transaction (i.e., accepting the offer and voting for the candidate). This study also found evidence that when money is used for vote buying, it appears to be targeted at those with greater needs, confirming the literature that vote buying activities tend to be well targeted at poor and low-income communities. Unsurprisingly, vote buying offers are more likely in areas where elections are closely contested, and they are also more likely in socially cohesive communities. Our findings also suggest that vote buying may not necessarily be effective in the sense that it encourages only few voters to change their candidate preference. This coheres with earlier studies suggesting that vote buying and selling merely caps a longstanding patron–client relationship between politicians and low-income voters. JEL: D72, D91, K49

‘Make the Economy Scream’? Economic, Ideological and Social Determinants of Support for Salvador Allende in Chile, 1970–3

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
PATRICIO NAVIA ◽  
RODRIGO OSORIO
Keyword(s):  
Social Class ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Salvador Allende ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Popular Unity ◽  
Municipal Level

AbstractWith polling and municipal level data, we analyse the determinants of Salvador Allende's presidential election victory in 1970 and the change in political and electoral support for his government (1970–3). Support for Allende is explained by ideology more than by social class, socio-demographic variables or the economic performance of the country. Allende won in 1970 as an opposition candidate when the outgoing Frei administration enjoyed high approval and the country was experiencing favourable economic conditions. In 1973, when Allende had 49.7% approval, ideology remained the strongest determinant of presidential approval. Economic variables and social class are less important in explaining electoral support for Allende and for his Popular Unity coalition.

The Structural Determinants of Fear of Crime: An Analysis Using Census and Crime Survey Data from England and Wales

1994 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hale ◽  
Pat Pack ◽  
John Salked
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Structural Determinants ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Neighbourhood Level ◽  
British Crime Survey ◽  
Neighbourhood Structure

The research presented in this article develops the explanation of fear of crime beyond that which concentrates upon the characteristics and attributes of individuals to consider structural or neighbourhood level determinants. After reviewing the theoretical arguments for such an approach, an empirical model which combines neighbourhood level data constructed from the 1981 British Census with individual level data from the 1984 British Crime Survey is presented. The results support the contention that neighbourhood structure is an important factor when discussing fear of crime.

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