scholarly journals A Multiscale Evaluation of Multisensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates in the Russian River Basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janice L. Bytheway ◽  
Mimi Hughes ◽  
Kelly Mahoney ◽  
Robert Cifelli
Keyword(s):  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Unique Challenge ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Variable Nature ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Russian River ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The Russian River in northern California is an important hydrological resource that typically depends on a few significant precipitation events per year, often associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), to maintain its annual water supply. Because of the highly variable nature of annual precipitation in the region, accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are necessary to drive hydrologic models and inform water management decisions. The basin’s location and complex terrain present a unique challenge to QPEs, with sparse in situ observations and mountains that inhibit remote sensing by ground radars. Gridded multisensor QPE datasets can fill in the gaps but are susceptible to both the errors and uncertainties from the ingested datasets and uncertainties due to interpolation methods. In this study a dense network of independently operated rain gauges is used to evaluate gridded QPE from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) during 44 precipitation events occurring during the 2015/16 and 2016/17 wet seasons (October–March). The MRMS QPE products matched the gauge estimates of precipitation reasonably well in approximately half the cases but failed to capture the spatial distribution and intensity of the rainfall in the remaining cases. ERA-Interim reanalysis data suggest that the differences in performance are related to synoptic-scale patterns and AR landfall location. These synoptic-scale differences produce different rainfall distributions and influence basin-scale winds, potentially creating regions of small-scale precipitation enhancement or suppression. Data from four profiling radars indicated that a larger fraction of the precipitation in poorly captured events occurred as shallow stratiform rain unobserved by radar.

Scale Dependent Analytical Investigation of the Dynamic State Index Concerning the Quasi-Geostrophic Theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annette Müller ◽  
Peter Névir ◽  
Rupert Klein
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Investigation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Dynamic State ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Flow Equations ◽  
State Index ◽  
Precipitation Modeling ◽  
Original Index

Abstract The Dynamic State Index (DSI) is a scalar diagnostic field that quantifies local deviations from a steady and adiabatic wind solution and thus indicates non-stationarity aswell as diabaticity. The DSI-concept has originally been developed through the Energy-Vorticity Theory based on the full compressible flow equations without regard to the characteristic scale-dependence of many atmospheric processes. But such scaledependent information is often of importance, and particularly so in the context of precipitation modeling: Small scale convective events are often organized in storms, clusters up to “Großwetterlagen” on the synoptic scale. Therefore, a DSI index for the quasi-geostrophic model is developed using (i) the Energy-Vorticity Theory and (ii) showing that it is asymptotically consistent with the original index for the primitive equations. In the last part, using meteorological reanalysis data it is demonstrated on a case study that both indices capture systematically different scale-dependent precipitation information. A spin-off of the asymptotic analysis is a novel non-equilibrium time scale combining potential vorticity and the DSI indices.

scholarly journals Spatial Bias in Medium-Range Forecasts of Heavy Precipitation in the Sacramento River Basin: Implications for Water Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1405-1423
Author(s):  
Zachary P. Brodeur ◽  
Scott Steinschneider
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Sacramento River ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Range Forecasts

AbstractForecasts of heavy precipitation delivered by atmospheric rivers (ARs) are becoming increasingly important for both flood control and water supply management in reservoirs across California. This study examines the hypothesis that medium-range forecasts of heavy precipitation at the basin scale exhibit recurrent spatial biases that are driven by mesoscale and synoptic-scale features of associated AR events. This hypothesis is tested for heavy precipitation events in the Sacramento River basin using 36 years of NCEP medium-range reforecasts from 1984 to 2019. For each event we cluster precipitation forecast error across western North America for lead times ranging from 1 to 15 days. Integrated vapor transport (IVT), 500-hPa geopotential heights, and landfall characteristics of ARs are composited across clusters and lead times to diagnose the causes of precipitation forecast biases. We investigate the temporal evolution of forecast error to characterize its persistence across lead times, and explore the accuracy of forecasted IVT anomalies across different domains of the North American west coast during heavy precipitation events in the Sacramento basin. Our results identify recurrent spatial patterns of precipitation forecast error consistent with errors of forecasted synoptic-scale features, especially at long (5–15 days) leads. Moreover, we find evidence that forecasts of AR landfalls well outside of the latitudinal bounds of the Sacramento basin precede heavy precipitation events within the basin. These results suggest the potential for using medium-range forecasts of large-scale climate features across the Pacific–North American sector, rather than just local forecasts of basin-scale precipitation, when designing forecast-informed reservoir operations.

scholarly journals Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates over the Arctic Ocean and Its Peripheral Seas from Reanalyses

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8441-8462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linette N. Boisvert ◽  
Melinda A. Webster ◽  
Alek A. Petty ◽  
Thorsten Markus ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the “new Arctic”). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

scholarly journals Improving Multisensor Precipitation Estimation via Adaptive Conditional Bias–Penalized Merging of Rain Gauge Data and Remotely Sensed Quantitative Precipitation Estimates

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 2347-2365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Jozaghi ◽  
Mohammad Nabatian ◽  
Seongjin Noh ◽  
Dong-Jun Seo ◽  
Lin Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Computational Cost ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Radar Satellite ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimates

Abstract We describe and evaluate adaptive conditional bias–penalized cokriging (CBPCK) for improved multisensor precipitation estimation using rain gauge data and remotely sensed quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE). The remotely sensed QPEs used are radar-only and radar–satellite-fused estimates. For comparative evaluation, true validation is carried out over the continental United States (CONUS) for 13–30 September 2015 and 7–9 October 2016. The hourly gauge data, radar-only QPE, and satellite QPE used are from the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System, Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System, and Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval (SCaMPR), respectively. For radar–satellite fusion, conditional bias–penalized Fisher estimation is used. The reference merging technique compared is ordinary cokriging (OCK) used in the National Weather Service Multisensor Precipitation Estimator. It is shown that, beyond the reduction due to mean field bias (MFB) correction, both OCK and adaptive CBPCK additionally reduce the unconditional root-mean-square error (RMSE) of radar-only QPE by 9%–16% over the CONUS for the two periods, and that adaptive CBPCK is superior to OCK for estimation of hourly amounts exceeding 1 mm. When fused with the MFB-corrected radar QPE, the MFB-corrected SCaMPR QPE for September 2015 reduces the unconditional RMSE of the MFB-corrected radar by 4% and 6% over the entire and western half of the CONUS, respectively, but is inferior to the MFB-corrected radar for estimation of hourly amounts exceeding 7 mm. Adaptive CBPCK should hence be favored over OCK for estimation of significant amounts of precipitation despite larger computational cost, and the SCaMPR QPE should be used selectively in multisensor QPE.

scholarly journals Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream–aquifer exchanges

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 4531-4545 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zhu ◽  
C. L. Winter ◽  
Z. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Effective Conductivity ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Effective Parameters ◽  
Aquifer Systems ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Local Grid

Abstract. Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream–aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream–aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW (Modular Three-dimensional Finite-difference Groundwater Flow Model) simulation environment, and the PEST (parameter estimation) tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop lognormally distributed conductivity (K) fields on local grid scales. Stream–aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer–stream exchanges. Since surface water–groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Sediment transport modifications induced by submerged artificial reef systems: a case study for the Gulf of Venice

2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Bonaldo ◽  
Alvise Benetazzo ◽  
Andrea Bergamasco ◽  
Francesco Falcieri ◽  
Sandro Carniel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Coastal Zone Management ◽  
Artificial Reef ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Zone Management ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Scale Modelling ◽  
Maritime Spatial Planning

AbstractThe shallow, gently sloping, sandy-silty seabed of the Venetian coast (Italy) is studded by a number of outcropping rocky systems of different size encouraging the development of peculiar zoobenthic biocenoses with considerably higher biodiversity indexes compared to neighbouring areas. In order to protect and enhance the growth of settling communities, artificial monolithic reefs were deployed close to the most important formations, providing further nesting sites and mechanical hindrance to illegal trawl fishing.In this framework, a multi-step and multi-scale numerical modelling activity was carried out to predict the perturbations induced by the presence of artificial structures on sediment transport over the outcroppings and their implications on turbidity and water quality. After having characterized wave and current circulation climate at the sub-basin scale over a reference year, a set of small scale simulations was carried out to describe the effects of a single monolith under different geometries and hydrodynamic forcings, encompassing the conditions likely occurring at the study sites. A dedicated tool was then developed to compose the information contained in the small-scale database into realistic deployment configurations, and applied in four protected outcroppings identified as test sites. With reference to these cases, under current meteomarine climate the application highlighted a small and localised increase in suspended sediment concentration, suggesting that the implemented deployment strategy is not likely to produce harmful effects on turbidity close to the outcroppings.In a broader context, the activity is oriented at the tuning of a flexible instrument for supporting the decision-making process in benthic environments of outstanding environmental relevance, especially in the Integrated Coastal Zone Management or Maritime Spatial Planning applications. The dissemination of sub-basin scale modelling results via the THREDDS Data Server, together with an user-friendly software for composing single-monolith runs and a graphical interface for exploring the available data, significantly improves the quantitative information collection and sharing among scientists, stakeholders and policy-makers.

scholarly journals Detecting Beam Blockage in Radar-Based Precipitation Estimates

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (7) ◽  
pp. 1407-1422 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Brent McRoberts ◽  
John W. Nielsen-Gammon
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Transmitted Beam ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Low Pass ◽  
Prerequisite Knowledge ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimates

AbstractGridded radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are potentially ideal inputs for hydrological modeling and monitoring because of their high spatiotemporal resolution. Beam blockage is a common type of bias in radar QPEs related to the blockage of the radar beam by an obstruction, such as topography or tall buildings. This leads to a diminishment in the power of the transmitted beam beyond the range of obstruction and a systematic underestimation of reflectivity return to the radar site. A new spatial analysis technique for objectively identifying regions in which precipitation estimates are contaminated by beam blockage was developed. The methodology requires only a long-term precipitation climatology with no prerequisite knowledge of topography or known obstructions needed. For each radar domain, the QPEs are normalized by climatology and a low-pass Fourier series fit captures the expected precipitation as a function of azimuth angle. Beam blockage signatures are identified as radially coherent regions with normalized values that are systematically lower than the Fourier fit. Precipitation estimates sufficiently affected by beam blockage can be replaced by values estimated using neighboring unblocked estimates. The methodology is applied to the correction of the National Weather Service radar-based QPE dataset, whose estimates originate from the NEXRAD network in the central and eastern United States. The methodology is flexible enough to be useful for most radar installations and geographical regions with at least a few years of data.

Recurrent Rossby wave packets and persistent extreme weather

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mubashshir Ali ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Matthias Röthlisberger
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Wet Spells

<p>Upper-level synoptic-scale Rossby wave packets are well-known to affect surface weather. When these Rossby wave packets occur repeatedly in the same phase at a specific location, they can result in persistent hot, cold, dry, and wet conditions. The repeated and in-phase occurrence of Rossby wave packets is termed as recurrent synoptic-scale Rossby wave packets (RRWPs). RRWPs result from multiple transient synoptic-scale wave packets amplifying in the same geographical region over several weeks.</p><p>Our climatological analyses using reanalysis data have shown that RRWPs can significantly modulate the persistence of hot, cold, dry, and wet spells in several regions in the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere.  RRWPs can both shorten or extend hot, cold, and dry spell durations. The spatial patterns of statistically significant links between RRWPs and spell durations are distinct for the type of the spell (hot, cold, dry, or wet) and the season (MJJASO or NDJFMA). In the Northern Hemisphere, the spatial patterns where RRWPs either extend or shorten the spell durations are wave-like. In the Southern Hemisphere, the spatial patterns are either wave-like (hot and cold spells) or latitudinally banded (dry and wet spells).</p><p>Furthermore, we explore the atmospheric drivers behind RRWP events. This includes both the background flow and potential wave-triggers such as the Madden Julian Oscillation or blocking. For 100 events of intense Rossby wave recurrence in the Atlantic, the background flow, the intensity of tropical convection, and the occurrence of blocking are studied using flow composites.</p>

scholarly journals Contributions of equatorial planetary waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 QBO disruption

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min-Jee Kang ◽  
Hye-Yeong Chun
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Negative Wave ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Convective Gravity Waves

Abstract. In January 2020, unexpected easterly winds developed in the downward-propagating westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase. This event corresponds to the second QBO disruption in history, and it occurred four years after the first disruption that occurred in 2015/16. According to several previous studies, strong midlatitude Rossby waves propagating from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the SH winter likely initiated the disruption; nevertheless, the wave forcing that finally led to the disruption has not been investigated. In this study, we examine the role of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs) in the 2019/20 QBO disruption using MERRA-2 global reanalysis data. In June–September 2019, unusually strong Rossby wave forcing originating from the SH decelerated the westerly QBO at 0°–5° N at ~50 hPa. In October–November 2019, vertically (horizontally) propagating Rossby waves and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves began to increase (decrease). From December 2019, contribution of the MRG wave forcing to the zonal wind deceleration was the largest, followed by the Rossby wave forcing originating from the Northern Hemisphere and the equatorial troposphere. In January 2020, CGWs provided 11 % of the total negative wave forcing at ~43 hPa. Inertia–gravity (IG) waves exhibited a moderate contribution to the negative forcing throughout. Although the zonal-mean precipitation was not significantly larger than the climatology, convectively coupled equatorial wave activities were increased during the 2019/20 disruption. As in the 2015/16 QBO disruption, the increased barotropic instability at the QBO edges generated more MRG waves at 70–90 hPa, and westerly anomalies in the upper troposphere allowed more westward IG waves and CGWs to propagate to the stratosphere. Combining the 2015/16 and 2019/20 disruption cases, Rossby waves and MRG waves can be considered the key factors inducing QBO disruption.

scholarly journals Meridional energy transport extremes and the general circulation of NH mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerio Lembo ◽  
Federico Fabiano ◽  
Vera Melinda Galfi ◽  
Rune Graversen ◽  
Valerio Lucarini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Height Fields ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

Abstract. The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated with the dynamics of the atmosphere at multiple scales, from planetary to synoptic. We use ERA5 reanalysis data to perform a wavenumber decomposition of meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during winter and summer. We then relate extreme transport events to atmospheric circulation anomalies and dominant weather regimes, identified by clustering 500 hPa geopotential height fields. In general, planetary-scale waves determine the strength and meridional position of the synoptic-scale baroclinic activity with their phase and amplitude, but important differences emerge between seasons. During winter, large wavenumbers (k = 2 − 3) are key drivers of the meridional energy transport extremes, and planetary and synoptic-scale transport extremes virtually never co-occur. In summer, extremes are associated with higher wavenumbers (k = 4 − 6), identified as synoptic-scale motions. We link these waves and the transport extremes to recent results on exceptionally strong and persistent co-occurring summertime heat waves across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. We show that these events are typical, in terms of dominant regime patterns associated with extremely strong meridional energy transports.

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