scholarly journals Toward Estimating Climatic Trends in SST. Part I: Methods of Measurement

2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 464-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth C. Kent ◽  
Peter K. Taylor

Abstract To assess climatic changes in sea surface temperature (SST), changes in the measurement method with time and the effect of these changes on the mean SST must be quantified. Observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) have been analyzed for the period from 1970 to 1997 using both SST measurement metadata contained within the dataset and a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) catalog of observing ships. The WMO metadata were particularly important in identifying engine-intake SSTs during the 1970s, but increased method identification over the entire period. There are strong regional variations in the preferred SST measurement method, with engine-intake SST most common in the Pacific and bucket SST preferred by countries bordering the Atlantic. The number of engine-intake SSTs increases over time and becomes more numerous than buckets by the early 1980s. There are significant differences between SST observations made by different methods. The rounding of reports is more common for engine-intake SST than for either bucket or hull sensor SST, which degrades its quality. Significant time-varying biases exist between SST derived from buckets and from engine intakes. The SST difference has a strong seasonal signal with bucket SST being relatively cold in winter, probably resulting from heat loss from the buckets, and warm in summer, probably resulting from solar warming or the sampling of a shallow warm layer. There is also a long-term trend with engine-intake SST being relatively warm in the early period but with a small annual mean difference between the two methods by 1990.

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 2069-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. B. Gudadze ◽  
G. G. Didebulidze ◽  
L. N. Lomidze ◽  
G. Sh. Javakhishvili ◽  
M. A. Marsagishvili ◽  
...  

Abstract. Long-term observations of total nightglow intensity of the atomic oxygen red 630.0 nm line at Abastumani (41.75° N, 42.82° E) in 1957–1993 and measurements of the ionosphere F2 layer parameters from the Tbilisi ionosphere station (41.65° N, 44.75° E) in 1963–1986 have been analyzed. It is shown that a decrease in the long-term trend of the mean annual red 630.0 nm line intensity from the pre-midnight value (+0.770±1.045 R/year) to its minimum negative value (−1.080±0.670 R/year) at the midnight/after midnight is a possible result of the observed lowering of the peak height of the ionosphere F2 layer electron density hmF2 (−0.455±0.343 km/year). A theoretical simulation is carried out using a simple Chapman-type layer (damping in time) for the height distribution of the F2 layer electron density. The estimated values of the lowering in the hmF2, the increase in the red line intensity at pre-midnight and its decrease at midnight/after midnight are close to their observational ones, when a negative trend in the total neutral density of the upper atmosphere and an increase in the mean northward wind (or its possible consequence – a decrease in the southward one) are assumed.


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 35-36
Author(s):  
Sandra Tong ◽  
Robert P. Numerof ◽  
Jane Datangel ◽  
Esteban Masuda

Introduction: Fostamatinib is an oral, potent inhibitor of spleen tyrosine kinase (SYK) with proven efficacy and a manageable safety profile for the treatment of ITP. SYK is situated in an intracellular signaling pathway upstream of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK). Long-term safety data on fostamatinib at various dosing regimens (up to 150 mg BID) has been collected in >4000 patients with ITP, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and other autoimmune, allergic and neoplastic disorders. The safety and tolerability of fostamatinib were consistent across different patient populations (apart from disease specific events). We present a summary analysis of the fostamatinib safety data from the ITP and RA studies. Methods: Fostamatinib safety data from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 studies and the long-term, open-label, extension (OLE) study in ITP were pooled and are based on a starting dose of 200 mg/day, which was increased to 300 mg/day after 4 weeks in 88% of patients. Fostamatinib safety data from 13 phase 2/3 studies in RA were pooled and are based on a dosing regimen of 100-150 mg/day (n=1232) or 200-300 mg/day (n=2205). Results: The pooled data set for ITP included 146 patients; 60% were female, and the median age was 53 years (range 20-88). The mean duration of fostamatinib treatment was 19 months (range <1-62 months), representing 229 patient exposure years. Adverse events (AEs) were reported in 87% of patients, and 63% were mild to moderate. Serious AEs were reported in 31% of patients. The incidence of diarrhea, hypertension, alanine aminotransferase increase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) increase was evaluated in 58 patients who received fostamatinib for ≥1 year. This enabled a comparison of the incidence of these AEs in quartiles over the first year to assess the cumulative effects of fostamatinib. The AEs were reported with decreasing frequency during the second, third, and fourth quarters of fostamatinib treatment compared with the first quarter of the initial year of treatment in the 58 patients (see Figure 1). In the same 58 patients, the use of rescue therapy decreased while median platelet counts increased each quarter of the first year. The pooled data set for RA included 3437 patients who received fostamatinib; 83% were female, and the median age was 54 (range 18 -87). The mean duration of treatment was 18 months (range <1-81) representing 5134 patient exposure years. AEs were reported in 86% of RA patients and were mild to moderate in 73% of RA patients. Serious AEs occurred in 14%. In the placebo-controlled RA studies, 2414 patients received fostamatinib with 823 patient exposure years and 1169 received placebo with 367 patient exposure years. Despite a two-fold (125%) increase in exposure with fostamatinib vs placebo (823 vs 367 patient exposure years), there was only a 26% increase in AEs with fostamatinib vs placebo (68% vs 54%). The most common events in the ITP and RA studies were diarrhea (36% and 24%), hypertension (22% and 19%) and nausea (19% and 8%), apart from disease-related AEs. Epistaxis (19% and 0.5%), petechiae (15% and 0.3%), contusion (12% and 2%), and fatigue (10% and 2%) are associated with ITP and were uncommon in the RA population. Rheumatoid arthritis was reported as an AE in 9% of patients with RA and in none with ITP. Some AEs may be dose-related, and one-third of the RA patients were on lower dosages (100-150 mg/day) than were generally given in the ITP trials (200-300 mg/day). Conclusions: Fostamatinib has been evaluated in >4000 patients across different disease populations. Fostamatinib has a consistent and manageable safety profile. No new safety signals and no cumulative toxicity were observed with up to 81 months (6.8 years) of continuous treatment. Figure 1 Disclosures Tong: Rigel: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Numerof:Rigel: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Datangel:Rigel: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Masuda:Rigel: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company.


2007 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
N B Gudadze ◽  
G G Didebulidze ◽  
G Sh. Javakhishvili ◽  
M G Shepherd ◽  
M V Vardosanidze

The long-term data set of total nightglow intensity of the oxygen red 630.0~nm line observed at Abastumani (41.8°N, 42.8°E) between 1957–1993 is investigated. The long-term trend and characteristic variations in solar radiation during an 11 year cycle of the red-line intensity are different after astronomical twilight (premidnight) and at midnight. The amplitude of deviation of the red-line intensity from its mean value at solar maximum and (or) minimum phase is greatest after astronomical twilight and decreases toward midnight. The long-term trend of these variations changes from its value about 0.74 R/year premidnight to its minimum negative value of about –1.92 R/year at and after midnight. This behavior of the long-term trend is considered as a possible result of an increase in electron density below the peak height (hmF2) of the ionospheric F2 layer and lowering of the height hmF2 after midnight predicted by the TIME-GCM model on the assumption of an increase in density of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. The third-order regression equation (with different solar activity indices) is considered to be convenient for describing long-term variations in the mean annual red-line intensity.PACS Nos.: 94.10.Rk, 94.20.Ji, 92.60.Vb


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 8643-8650 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Connor ◽  
T. Mooney ◽  
G. E. Nedoluha ◽  
J. W. Barrett ◽  
A. Parrish ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a re-analysis of upper stratospheric ClO measurements from the ground-based millimeter-wave instrument from January 1992 to February 2012. These measurements are made as part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) from Mauna Kea, Hawaii, (19.8° N, 204.5° E). Here, we use daytime and nighttime measurements together to form a day–night spectrum, from which the difference in the day and night profiles is retrieved. These results are then compared to the day–night difference profiles from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments. We also compare them to our previous analyses of the same data, in which we retrieved the daytime ClO profile. The major focus will be on comparing the year-to-year and long-term changes in ClO derived by the two analysis methods, and comparing these results to the long-term changes reported by others. We conclude that the re-analyzed data set has less short-term variability and exhibits a more constant long-term trend that is more consistent with other observations. Data from 1995 to 2012 indicate a linear decline of mid-stratospheric ClO of 0.64 ± 0.15% yr−1 (2σ).


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 4895-4907 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bigi ◽  
G. Ghermandi

Abstract. The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil–Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal–Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the observed drop in atmospheric PM10, or if the low drop in particulate emissions is indeed due to the uncertainty in the emission inventory data for this species.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihretab G. Ghebrezgabher ◽  
Taibao Yang ◽  
Xuemei Yang

Climate change due to global warming is a world concern, particularly in Africa. In this study, precipitation and temperature variables are taken as a proxy to assess and quantify the long-term climate change and drought in the Horn of Africa (HOA) (1930–2014). We adapted a simple linear regression and interpolation to analyze, respectively, the trend and spatial distribution of the mean annual precipitation and temperature. In addition, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied to evaluate the drought condition of the HOA. The results revealed that statistically the trend of precipitation decreased insignificantly; the trend of temperature was observed to drop very significantly between 1930 and 1969, but it was dramatically elevated very significantly from 1970 to 2014. The SPEI showed that the HOA experienced from mild to moderate drought throughout the study period with severe to extreme drought in some regions, particularly in 1943, 1984, 1991, and 2009. The drought was a very serious environmental problem in the HOA in the last 85 years. Thus, an immediate action is required to tackle drought and hence poverty and famine in the HOA.


2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Parker ◽  
Clifford Ollier

AbstractOver the past decades, detailed surveys of the Pacific Ocean atoll islands show no sign of drowning because of accelerated sea-level rise. Data reveal that no atoll lost land area, 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, and only 11.4% of islands contracted. The Pacific Atolls are not being inundated because the sea level is rising much less than was thought. The average relative rate of rise and acceleration of the 29 long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of Japan, Oceania and West Coast of North America, are both negative, −0.02139 mm yr−1and −0.00007 mm yr−2respectively. Since the start of the 1900s, the sea levels of the Pacific Ocean have been remarkably stable.


Ocean Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 829-837 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Yan ◽  
J. Zhu ◽  
C. A. S. Tanajura

Abstract. An ocean data assimilation system was developed for the Pacific–Indian oceans with the aim of assimilating altimetry data, sea surface temperature, and in situ measurements from Argo (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography), XBT (expendable bathythermographs), CTD (conductivity temperature depth), and TAO (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean). The altimetry data assimilation requires the addition of the mean dynamic topography to the altimetric sea level anomaly to match the model sea surface height. The mean dynamic topography is usually computed from the model long-term mean sea surface height, and is also available from gravimetric satellite data. In this study, the impact of different mean dynamic topographies on the sea level anomaly assimilation is examined. Results show that impacts of the mean dynamic topography cannot be neglected. The mean dynamic topography from the model long-term mean sea surface height without assimilating in situ observations results in worsened subsurface temperature and salinity estimates. Even if all available observations including in situ measurements, sea surface temperature measurements, and altimetry data are assimilated, the estimates are still not improved. This proves the significant impact of the MDT (mean dynamic topography) on the analysis system, as the other types of observations do not compensate for the shortcoming due to the altimetry data assimilation. The gravimeter-based mean dynamic topography results in a good estimate compared with that of the experiment without assimilation. The mean dynamic topography computed from the model long-term mean sea surface height after assimilating in situ observations presents better results.


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