scholarly journals The Tornadic Supercell on the Kanto Plain on 6 May 2012: Polarimetric Radar and Surface Data Assimilation with EnKF and Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (9) ◽  
pp. 3133-3157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Yokota ◽  
Hiromu Seko ◽  
Masaru Kunii ◽  
Hiroshi Yamauchi ◽  
Hiroshi Niino
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Spatial Density ◽  
Low Level

A tornadic supercell and associated low-level mesocyclone (LMC) observed on the Kanto Plain, Japan, on 6 May 2012 were predicted with a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model with a horizontal resolution of 350 m through assimilation of surface meteorological data (horizontal wind, temperature, and relative humidity) of high spatial density and C-band Doppler radar data (radial velocity and rainwater estimated from reflectivity and specific differential phase) with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter. With assimilation of both surface and radar data, a strong LMC was successfully predicted near the path of the actual tornado. When either surface or radar data were not assimilated, however, the LMC was not predicted. Therefore, both surface and radar data were essential for successful LMC forecasts. The factors controlling the strength of the predicted LMC, defined as a low-level maximum vertical vorticity, were clarified by an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis (ESA), which is a new approach for analyzing LMC intensification. The ESA showed that the strength of the LMC was sensitive to low-level convergence forward of the storm and to low-level relative humidity in the rear of the storm. Therefore, the correction of these low-level variables by assimilation of dense observations was found to be particularly important for forecasting and monitoring the LMC in the present case.

scholarly journals A numerical study of cell merger over Cuba – Part I: implementation of the ARPS/MM5 models

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 2781-2792 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Pozo ◽  
I. Borrajero ◽  
J. C. Marín ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Initial Boundary ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Maximum Reflectivity ◽  
Radar Echoes ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Made In

Abstract. On 21 July 2001 a number of severe storms developed over the region of Camaguey, Cuba, which were observed by radar. A numerical simulation was performed in order to realistically reproduce the development of the storms observed that day. The mesoscale model MM5 was used to determine the initial, boundary and update conditions for the storm-scale simulation with the model ARPS. Changes to the source code of ARPS were made in order to assimilate the output from the MM5 as input data and a new land-use file with a 1-km horizontal resolution for the Cuban territory was created. A case representing the merger between cells at different stages of development was correctly reproduced by the simulation and is in good agreement with radar observations. The state of development of each cell, the time when the merger occurred, starting from the formation of clouds, the propagation motion of the cells and the increase in precipitation, due to the growth of the area after the merger, were correctly reproduced. Simulated clouds matched the main characteristics of the observed radar echoes, though in some cases, reflectivity tops and horizontal areas were overestimated. Maximum reflectivity values and the heights where these maximum values were located were in good agreement with radar data, particularly when the model reflectivity was calculated without including the snow. The MM5/ARPS configuration introduced in this study, improved sensibly the ability to simulate convective systems, thereby enhancing the local forecasting of convection in the region.

Analysis of the Evolution of a Meiyu Frontal Rainstorm Based on Doppler Radar Data Assimilation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongli Li ◽  
Yang Hu ◽  
Zhimin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Sufficient Energy ◽  
Study Results

<p>During the Meiyu period, floods are prone to occur in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River due to the highly concentrated and heavy rainfall, which caused huge life and economic losses. Based on numerical simulation by assimilating Doppler radar, radiosonde, and surface meteorological observations, the evolution mechanism for the initiation, development and decaying of a Meiyu frontal rainstorm that occurred from 4th to 5th July 2014 is analyzed in this study. Results show that the numerical experiment can well reproduce the temporal variability of heavy precipitation and successfully simulate accumulative precipitation and its evolution over the key rainstorm area. The simulated “rainbelt training” is consistent with observed “echo training” on both spatial structure and temporal evolution. The convective cells in the mesoscale convective belt propagated from southwest to northeast across the key rainstorm area, leading to large accumulative precipitation and rainstorm in this area. There existed convective instability in lower levels above the key rainstorm area, while strong ascending motion developed during period of heavy rainfall. Combined with abundant water vapor supply, the above condition was favorable for the formation and development of heavy rainfall. The Low level jet (LLJ) provided sufficient energy for the rainstorm system, and the low-level convergence intensified, which was an important reason for the maintenance of precipitation system and its eventual intensification to rainstorm. At its mature stage, the rainstorm system demonstrated vertically tilted structure with strong ascending motion in the key rainstorm area, which was favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall. In the decaying stage, unstable energy decreased, and the rainstorm no longer had sufficient energy to sustain. The rapid weakening of LLJ resulted in smaller energy supply to the convective system, and the stratification tended to be stable in the middle and lower levels. The ascending motion weakened correspondingly, which made it hard for the convective system to maintain.</p>

scholarly journals U.S. West Coast Surface Heat Fluxes, Wind Stress, and Wind Stress Curl from a Mesoscale Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (11) ◽  
pp. 3202-3216 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Haack ◽  
S. D. Burk ◽  
R. M. Hodur
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Wind Stress Curl ◽  
Low Level

Abstract Monthly averages of numerical model fields are beneficial for depicting patterns in surface forcing such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, wind stress, and wind stress curl over data-sparse ocean regions. Grid resolutions less than 10 km provide the necessary mesoscale detail to characterize the impact of a complex coastline and coastal topography. In the present study a high-resolution mesoscale model is employed to reveal patterns in low-level winds, temperature, relative humidity, sea surface temperature as well as surface fluxes, over the eastern Pacific and along the U.S. west coast. Hourly output from successive 12-h forecasts are averaged to obtain monthly mean patterns from each season of 1999. The averages yield information on interactions between the ocean and the overlying atmosphere and on the influence of coastal terrain forcing in addition to their month-to-month variability. The spring to summer transition is characterized by a dramatic shift in near-surface winds, temperature, and relative humidity as offshore regions of large upward surface fluxes diminish and an alongshore coastal flux gradient forms. Embedded within this gradient, and the imprint of strong summertime topographic forcing, are small-scale fluctuations that vary in concert with local changes in sea surface temperature. Potential feedbacks between the low-level wind, sea surface temperature, and the wind stress curl are explored in the coastal regime and offshore waters. In all seasons, offshore extensions of colder coastal waters impose a marked influence on low-level conditions by locally enhancing stability and reducing the wind speed, while buoy measurements along the coast indicate that sea surface temperatures and wind speeds tend to be negatively correlated.

scholarly journals Real-Time Detection and Filtering of Chaff Clutter from Single-Polarization Doppler Radar Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 873-895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Hyun Kim ◽  
Sungshin Kim ◽  
Hye-Young Han ◽  
Bok-Haeng Heo ◽  
Cheol-Hwan You
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Weather Radar ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Control Procedure ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Single Polarization

Abstract In countries with frequent aerial military exercises, chaff particles that are routinely spread by military aircraft represent significant noise sources for ground-based weather radar observation. In this study, a cost-effective procedure is proposed for identifying and removing chaff echoes from single-polarization Doppler radar readings in order to enhance the reliability of observed meteorological data. The proposed quality control procedure is based on three steps: 1) spatial and temporal clustering of decomposed radar image elements, 2) extraction of the clusters’ static and time-evolution characteristics, and 3) real-time identification and removal (or censoring) of target echoes from radar data. Simulation experiments based on this procedure were conducted on site-specific ground-echo-removed weather radar data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), from which three-dimensional (3D) reflectivity echoes covering hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of South Korean territory within an altitude range of 0.25–10 km were retrieved. The algorithm identified and removed chaff clutter from the South Korean data with a novel decision support system at an 81% accuracy level under typical cases in which chaff and weather clusters were isolated from one another with no overlapping areas.

An Approach of Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation and Its Assessment with the Inland QPF of Typhoon Rusa (2002) at Landfall

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingnong Xiao ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo ◽  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee ◽  
Dale M. Barker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Warm Rain Process ◽  
Reflectivity Data

Abstract A radar reflectivity data assimilation scheme was developed within the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. The model total water mixing ratio was used as a control variable. A warm-rain process, its linear, and its adjoint were incorporated into the system to partition the moisture and hydrometeor increments. The observation operator for radar reflectivity was developed and incorporated into the 3DVAR. With a single reflectivity observation, the multivariate structures of the analysis increments that included cloud water and rainwater mixing ratio increments were examined. Using the onshore Doppler radar data from Jindo, South Korea, the capability of the radar reflectivity assimilation for the landfalling Typhoon Rusa (2002) was assessed. Verifications of inland quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) of Typhoon Rusa (2002) showed positive impacts of assimilating radar reflectivity data on the short-range QPF.

Improved Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone in China Based on Assimilation of Radar Radial Winds with New Super-Observation Processing

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 2523-2539
Author(s):  
Jianing Feng ◽  
Yihong Duan ◽  
Qilin Wan ◽  
Hao Hu ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Previous Method ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis work explores the impact of assimilating radial winds from the Chinese coastal Doppler radar on track, intensity, and quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in a numerical weather prediction model, focusing mainly on two aspects: 1) developing a new coastal radar super-observation (SO) processing method, namely, an evenly spaced thinning method (ESTM) that is fit for landfalling TCs, and 2) evaluating the performance of the radar radial wind data assimilation in QPFs of landfalling TCs with multiple TC cases. Compared to a previous method of generating SOs (i.e., the radially spaced thinning method), in which the density of SOs is equal within the radial space of a radar scanning volume, the SOs created by ESTM are almost evenly distributed in the horizontal grids of the model background, resulting in more observations located in the TC inner-core region being involved in SOs. The use of SOs from ESTM leads to more cyclonic wind innovation, and larger analysis increments of height and horizontal wind in the lower level in an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation experiment with TC Mujigae (2015). Overall, forecasts of a TC’s landfalling position, intensity, and QPF are improved by radar data assimilation for all cases, including Mujigae and the other eight TCs that made landfall on the Chinese mainland in 2017. Specifically, through assimilation, TC landing position error and intensity error are reduced by 33% and 25%, respectively. The mean equitable threat score of extreme rainfall [>80 mm (3 h)−1] forecasts is doubled on average over all cases.

scholarly journals Evolution of a Cold Front Encountering Steep Quasi-2D Terrain: Coordinated Aircraft Observations on 8–9 December 2001 during IMPROVE-2

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 3559-3579 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. A. Bond ◽  
B. F. Smull ◽  
M. T. Stoelinga ◽  
C. P. Woods ◽  
A. Haase
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
State University ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Research Aircraft

Abstract Research aircraft observations from the 8–9 December 2001 case of the second phase of the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Operational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-2) describe the evolution of a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) during its eastward advance from the Pacific coastline to a point 200 km inland over the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. This analysis has two objectives: first, to illustrate the rapid weakening of the circulation associated with a landfalling WCFR and the relationship of these changes to terrain-induced airflow modifications, and second, to quantify the degree to which this weakening impacted cloud microphysical properties such as liquid water content, ice particle concentrations, and precipitation rate. The kinematic structure of the WCFR is detailed using Doppler radar observations from a NOAA P-3 aircraft, while some concomitant cloud microphysical properties are documented using flight-level measurements from the University of Washington Convair-580 aircraft. An accompanying the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) control simulation (nested to a horizontal resolution of 4 km over the IMPROVE-2 domain) provides a mesosynoptic context and thermodynamic information to complement the aircraft observations. To the authors’ knowledge, this case study represents the most complete documentation obtained to date of the rapid modifications that may occur when a frontal rainband progresses from coastal waters into a region of prominent terrain.

scholarly journals The Role of Observed Environmental Conditions and Precipitation Evolution in the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010)

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (6) ◽  
pp. 2207-2223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Susca-Lopata ◽  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Edward J. Zipser ◽  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Wind Retrievals

Abstract An investigation into the possible causes of the rapid intensification (RI) of Hurricane Earl (2010) is carried out using a combination of global analyses, aircraft Doppler radar data, and observations from passive microwave satellites and a long-range lightning network. Results point to an important series of events leading to, and just after, the onset of RI, all of which occur despite moderate (7–12 m s−1) vertical wind shear present. Beginning with an initially vertically misaligned vortex, observations indicate that asymmetric deep convection, initially left of shear but not distinctly up- or downshear, rotates into more decisively upshear regions. Following this convective rotation, the vortex becomes aligned and precipitation symmetry increases. The potential contributions to intensification from each of these structural changes are discussed. The radial distribution of intense convection relative to the radius of maximum wind (RMW; determined from Doppler wind retrievals) is estimated from microwave and lightning data. Results indicate that intense convection is preferentially located within the upper-level (8 km) RMW during RI, lending further support to the notion that intense convection within the RMW promotes tropical cyclone intensification. The distribution relative to the low-level RMW is more ambiguous, with intense convection preferentially located just outside of the low-level RMW at times when the upper-level RMW is much greater than the low-level RMW.

scholarly journals Relationships between Extreme Rain Rates and Convective Intensities from the Perspectives of TRMM and WSR-88D Radars

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (6) ◽  
pp. 1353-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandria Gingrey ◽  
Adam Varble ◽  
Edward Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Differential Phase ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Freezing Level ◽  
Trmm Pr ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Rates ◽  
Differential Reflectivity

AbstractTRMM PR 2A25, version 7 (V7), retrievals of reflectivity Z and rainfall rate R are compared with WSR-88D dual-polarimetric S-band radar data for 28 radars over the southeastern United States after matching their horizontal resolution and sampling. TRMM Ku-band measurements are converted to S-band approximations to more directly compare reflectivity estimates. Rain rates are approximated from WSR-88D data using the CSU–hydrometeor identification rainfall optimization (HIDRO) algorithm. Tropics-wide TRMM retrievals confirm previous findings of a low overlap fraction between extreme convective intensity, as approximated by the maximum 40-dBZ height, and extreme near-surface rain rates. WSR-88D data also confirm this low overlap but show that it is likely higher than TRMM PR retrievals indicate. For maximum 40-dBZ echo heights that extend above the freezing level, mean WSR-88D reflectivities at low levels are approximately 2 dB higher than TRMM PR reflectivities. Higher WSR-88D-retrieved rain rates for a given low-level reflectivity combine with these higher low-level reflectivities for a given maximum 40-dBZ height to produce rain rates that are approximately double those retrieved by the TRMM PR for maximum 40-dBZ heights that extend above the freezing level. TRMM PR path-integrated attenuation, and WSR-88D specific differential phase, differential reflectivity, and hail fraction indicate that the TRMM PR 2A25 V7 algorithm is possibly misidentifying low–midlevel hail and/or graupel as greater attenuating liquid, or vice versa. This misidentification, coupled with underestimation of path-integrated attenuation caused by nonuniform beamfilling and higher rain rates produced by specific differential phase (KDP)–R than Z–R relationships, results in low-biased 2A25 V7 rain rates in intense convection.

Quadrant Distribution of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Kinematics in Relation to Environmental Shear

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 2713-2732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer C. DeHart ◽  
Robert A. Houze ◽  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Strong Convection ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Airborne Doppler Radar ◽  
The Vertical Distribution ◽  
Left Quadrant

Abstract Airborne Doppler radar data collected in tropical cyclones by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D aircraft over an 8-yr period (2003–10) are used to statistically analyze the vertical structure of tropical cyclone eyewalls with reference to the deep-layer shear. Convective evolution within the inner core conforms to patterns shown by previous studies: convection initiates downshear right, intensifies downshear left, and weakens upshear. Analysis of the vertical distribution of radar reflectivity and vertical air motion indicates the development of upper-level downdrafts in conjunction with strong convection downshear left and a maximum in frequency upshear left. Intense updrafts and downdrafts both conform to the shear asymmetry pattern. While strong updrafts occur in the eyewall, intense downdrafts show far more radial variability, particularly in the upshear-left quadrant, though they concentrate along the eyewall edges. Strong updrafts are collocated with low-level inflow and upper-level outflow superimposed on the background flow. In contrast, strong downdrafts occur in association with low-level outflow and upper-level inflow.

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