scholarly journals Pooled cohort equations heart failure risk score predicts cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander C. Razavi ◽  
Kaitlin S. Potts ◽  
Tanika N. Kelly ◽  
Jiang He ◽  
Camilo Fernandez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Nationally Representative

scholarly journals External assessment of the EUROMACS right-sided heart failure risk score

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirak Shah ◽  
Thomas Murray ◽  
Jessica Schultz ◽  
Ranjit John ◽  
Cindy M. Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Right Ventricular ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Pressure Ratio ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Right Atrial ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
External Assessment ◽  
Failure Risk

AbstractThe EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score was developed to predict right ventricular failure (RVF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. The predictive ability of the EUROMACS score has not been tested in other cohorts. We performed a single center analysis of a continuous-flow (CF) LVAD cohort (n = 254) where we calculated EUROMACS risk scores and assessed for right ventricular heart failure after LVAD implantation. Thirty-nine percent of patients (100/254) had post-operative RVF, of which 9% (23/254) required prolonged inotropic support and 5% (12/254) required RVAD placement. For patients who developed RVF after LVAD implantation, there was a 45% increase in the hazards of death on LVAD support (HR 1.45, 95% CI 0.98–2.2, p = 0.066). Two variables in the EUROMACS score (Hemoglobin and Right Atrial Pressure to Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure ratio) were not predictive of RVF in our cohort. Overall, the EUROMACS score had poor external discrimination in our cohort with area under the curve of 58% (95% CI 52–66%). Further work is necessary to enhance our ability to predict RVF after LVAD implantation.

Advanced cardiometabolic & inflammatory markers for prediction of cardiovascular disease and cancer

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Radenkovic ◽  
S.C Chawla ◽  
G Botta ◽  
A Boli ◽  
M.B Banach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Risk Function ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Training Set ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Uk

Abstract   The two leading causes of mortality worldwide are cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The annual total cost of CVD and cancer is an estimated $844.4 billion in the US and is projected to double by 2030. Thus, there has been an increased shift to preventive medicine to improve health outcomes and development of risk scores, which allow early identification of individuals at risk to target personalised interventions and prevent disease. Our aim was to define a Risk Score R(x) which, given the baseline characteristics of a given individual, outputs the relative risk for composite CVD, cancer incidence and all-cause mortality. A non-linear model was used to calculate risk scores based on the participants of the UK Biobank (= 502548). The model used parameters including patient characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity), baseline conditions, lifestyle factors of diet and physical activity, blood pressure, metabolic markers and advanced lipid variables, including ApoA and ApoB and lipoprotein(a), as input. The risk score was defined by normalising the risk function by a fixed value, the average risk of the training set. To fit the non-linear model >400,000 participants were used as training set and >45,000 participants were used as test set for validation. The exponent of risk function was represented as a multilayer neural network. This allowed capturing interdependent behaviour of covariates, training a single model for all outcomes, and preserving heterogeneity of the groups, which is in contrast to CoxPH models which are traditionally used in risk scores and require homogeneous groups. The model was trained over 60 epochs and predictive performance was determined by the C-index with standard errors and confidence intervals estimated with bootstrap sampling. By inputing the variables described, one can obtain personalised hazard ratios for 3 major outcomes of CVD, cancer and all-cause mortality. Therefore, an individual with a risk Score of e.g. 1.5, at any time he/she has 50% more chances than average of experiencing the corresponding event. The proposed model showed the following discrimination, for risk of CVD (C-index = 0.8006), cancer incidence (C-index = 0.6907), and all-cause mortality (C-index = 0.7770) on the validation set. The CVD model is particularly strong (C-index >0.8) and is an improvement on a previous CVD risk prediction model also based on classical risk factors with total cholesterol and HDL-c on the UK Biobank data (C-index = 0.7444) published last year (Welsh et al. 2019). Unlike classically-used CoxPH models, our model considers correlation of variables as shown by the table of the values of correlation in Figure 1. This is an accurate model that is based on the most comprehensive set of patient characteristics and biomarkers, allowing clinicians to identify multiple targets for improvement and practice active preventive cardiology in the era of precision medicine. Figure 1. Correlation of variables in the R(x) Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF THE TIMI HEART FAILURE RISK SCORE TO THE EMPA-REG OUTCOME POPULATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (11) ◽  
pp. 1851
Author(s):  
Subodh Verma ◽  
Abhinav Sharma ◽  
Bernard Zinman ◽  
Anne Pernille Ofstad ◽  
David Fitchett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Failure Risk

scholarly journals Cardiovascular risk after hospitalisation for unexplained syncope and orthostatic hypotension

Heart ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 104 (6) ◽  
pp. 487-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekrem Yasa ◽  
Fabrizio Ricci ◽  
Martin Magnusson ◽  
Richard Sutton ◽  
Sabina Gallina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Orthostatic Hypotension ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Unexplained Syncope ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship of hospital admissions due to unexplained syncope and orthostatic hypotension (OH) with subsequent cardiovascular events and mortality.MethodsWe analysed a population-based prospective cohort of 30 528 middle-aged individuals (age 58±8 years; males, 40%). Adjusted Cox regression models were applied to assess the impact of unexplained syncope/OH hospitalisations on cardiovascular events and mortality, excluding subjects with prevalent cardiovascular disease.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 15±4 years, 524 (1.7%) and 504 (1.7%) participants were hospitalised for syncope or OH, respectively, yielding 1.2 hospital admissions per 1000 person-years for each diagnosis. Syncope hospitalisations increased with age (HR, per 1 year: 1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.09), higher systolic blood pressure (HR, per 10 mm Hg: 1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12), antihypertensive treatment (HR: 1.26, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59), use of diuretics (HR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.38) and prevalent cardiovascular disease (HR: 1.59, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.23), whereas OH hospitalisations increased with age (HR: 1.11, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.12) and prevalent diabetes (HR: 1.82, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.70). After exclusion of 1399 patients with prevalent cardiovascular disease, a total of 473/464 patients were hospitalised for unexplained syncope/OH before any cardiovascular event. Hospitalisation for unexplained syncope predicted coronary events (HR: 1.85, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.30), heart failure (HR: 2.24, 95% CI 1.65 to 3.04), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.84, 95% CI 1.50 to 2.26), aortic valve stenosis (HR: 2.06, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.32), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.37) and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.72, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.42). OH-hospitalisation predicted stroke (HR: 1.66, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.23), heart failure (HR: 1.78, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.62), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.89, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.41) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.30).ConclusionsPatients discharged with the diagnosis of unexplained syncope or OH show higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality with only partial overlap between these two conditions.

scholarly journals The MESA heart failure risk score: can't we do more?: Table 1

Heart ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-9
Author(s):  
Jennifer E Ho ◽  
Jared W Magnani
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Failure Risk

scholarly journals “Get with the Guidelines Heart Failure Risk Score” for mortality prediction in patients undergoing MitraClip

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Iliadis ◽  
Maximilian Spieker ◽  
Refik Kavsur ◽  
Clemens Metze ◽  
Martin Hellmich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Left Ventricular Ejection ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Get With The Guidelines

Abstract Background Reliable risk scores in patients undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair (TMVR) are lacking. Heart failure is common in these patients, and risk scores derived from heart failure populations might help stratify TMVR patients. Methods Consecutive patients from three Heart Centers undergoing TMVR were enrolled to investigate the association of the “Get with the Guidelines Heart Failure Risk Score” (comprising the variables systolic blood pressure, urea nitrogen, blood sodium, age, heart rate, race, history of chronic obstructive lung disease) with all-cause mortality. Results Among 815 patients with available data 177 patients died during a median follow-up time of 365 days. Estimated 1-year mortality by quartiles of the score (0–37; 38–42, 43–46 and more than 46 points) was 6%, 10%, 23% and 30%, respectively (p < 0.001), with good concordance between observed and predicted mortality rates (goodness of fit test p = 0.46). Every increase of one score point was associated with a 9% increase in the hazard of mortality (95% CI 1.06–1.11%, p < 0.001). The score was associated with long-term mortality independently of left ventricular ejection fraction, NYHA class and NTproBNP, and was equally predictive in primary and secondary mitral regurgitation. Conclusion The “Get with the Guidelines Heart Failure Risk Score” showed a strong association with mortality in patients undergoing TMVR with additive information beyond traditional risk factors. Given the routinely available variables included in this score, application is easy and broadly possible. Graphic abstract

scholarly journals Multi-trajectories of lipid indices with incident cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality: 23 years follow-up of two US cohort studies

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Koohi ◽  
Davood Khalili ◽  
Mohammad Ali Mansournia ◽  
Farzad Hadaegh ◽  
Hamid Soori
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cohort Studies ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Lipid Levels ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Understanding the distinct patterns (trajectories) of variation in blood lipid levels before diagnosing cardiovascular disease (CVD) might carry important implications for improving disease prevention or treatment. Methods We investigated 14,373 participants (45.5% men) aged 45–84 from two large US prospective cohort studies with a median of 23 years follow-up. First, we jointly estimated developmental trajectories of lipid indices, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) concentrations using group-based multi-trajectory modeling. Then, the association of identified multi-trajectories with incident CVD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Results Seven distinct multi-trajectories were identified. The majority of participants (approximately 80%) exhibited decreasing LDL-C but rising TG levels and relatively stable HDL-C levels. Compared to the individuals with healthy and stable LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG levels, those in other groups were at significant risk of incident CVD after adjusting for other conventional risk factors. Individuals with the highest but decreasing LDL-C and borderline high and rising TG levels over time were at the highest risk than those in other groups with a 2.22-fold risk of CVD. Also, those with the highest and increased triglyceride levels over time, over optimal and decreasing LDL-C levels, and the lowest HDL-C profile had a nearly 1.84 times CVD risk. Even individuals in the multi-trajectory group with the highest HDL-C, optimal LDL-C, and optimal TG levels had a significant risk (HR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.02–2.08). Furthermore, only those with the highest HDL-C profile increased the risk of heart failure by 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.07–2.06). Conclusions The trajectories and risk of CVD identified in this study demonstrated that despite a decline in LDL-C over time, a significant amount of residual risk for CVD remains. These findings suggest the impact of the increasing trend of TG on CVD risk and emphasize the importance of assessing the lipid levels at each visit and undertaking potential interventions that lower triglyceride concentrations to reduce the residual risk of CVD, even among those with the optimal LDL-C level.

Fried-food consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of observational studies

Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. heartjnl-2020-317883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Qin ◽  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Minghui Han ◽  
Dechen Liu ◽  
Xinping Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Fried Food ◽  
Major Cardiovascular Events ◽  
All Cause Mortality

ObjectiveWe performed a meta-analysis, including dose–response analysis, to quantitatively determine the association of fried-food consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in the general adult population.MethodsWe searched PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science for all articles before 11 April 2020. Random-effects models were used to estimate the summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs.ResultsIn comparing the highest with lowest fried-food intake, summary RRs (95% CIs) were 1.28 (1.15 to 1.43; n=17, I2=82.0%) for major cardiovascular events (prospective: 1.24 (1.12 to 1.38), n=13, I2=75.7%; case–control: 1.91 (1.15 to 3.17), n=4, I2=92.1%); 1.22 (1.07 to 1.40; n=11, I2=77.9%) for coronary heart disease (prospective: 1.16 (1.05 to 1.29), n=8, I2=44.6%; case–control: 1.91 (1.05 to 3.47), n=3, I2=93.9%); 1.37 (0.97 to 1.94; n=4, I2=80.7%) for stroke (cohort: 1.21 (0.87 to 1.69), n=3, I2=77.3%; case–control: 2.01 (1.27 to 3.19), n=1); 1.37 (1.07 to 1.75; n=4, I2=80.0%) for heart failure; 1.02 (0.93 to 1.14; n=3, I2=27.3%) for cardiovascular mortality; and 1.03 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.12; n=6, I2=38.0%) for all-cause mortality. The association was linear for major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease and heart failure.ConclusionsFried-food consumption may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease and presents a linear dose–response relation. However, the high heterogeneity and potential recall and misclassification biases for fried-food consumption from the original studies should be considered.

scholarly journals Dinner consumption and cardiovascular disease risk factors among a nationally representative sample of Iranian adolescents: the CASPIAN-III Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-146
Author(s):  
Leila Azadbakht ◽  
Fahime Akbari ◽  
Mostafa Qorbani ◽  
Mohammad Esmaeil Motlagh ◽  
Gelayol Ardalan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Cluster Sampling ◽  
Cvd Risk Factors ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Nationally Representative

Introduction: This cross-sectional study aimed to assess the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and dinner consumption in a nationally representative sample of Iranian adolescents. Methods: The present study was conducted on 5642 adolescents aged 10-18 years old in 27 provinces in Iran. The subjects were included applying by multistage random cluster sampling. Participants who ate ≥5 dinners during a week were considered as a dinner consumer. Results: Among 5642 subjects, 1412 (25%) did not consume dinner. Dinner consumers were less likely to be overweight or obese (P < 0.001) and abdominally obese (P < 0.001) as well as to have an abnormal level of HDL-C (P = 0.02). Dinner skipper youths had a higher risk for overweight or obesity (odds ratio [OR]: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.39-1.89) and abdominal obesity (OR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.36-1.85) which remained significant after adjusting confounding factors (P <0001). No relationship was observed between dinner consumption and the rest of the CVD risk factors, neither in crude nor in adjusted models. A higher proportion of dinner-consumer adolescents had no CVD risk factors in comparison to dinner-skipper subjects (31.1% vs. 28%). Conclusion: Eating dinner might be inversely associated with some CVD risk factors among Iranian adolescents. Further prospective studies will need to prove this theory.

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