Accelerated melanoma mortality rates among middle-aged white males with tumors of all thicknesses.
e21029 Background: Effective early detection of melanoma remains one of the most crucial strategies in improving patient prognosis, due to the inverse relationship between primary tumor thickness and survival time. However, recent studies have demonstrated the mortality burden of thin melanomas is at least as severe as that of thicker melanomas. Recognizing specific mortality trends among men and women by age and thickness is essential for establishing targeted melanoma screening efforts. Methods: We evaluated Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data from 2009-2013. Melanoma thickness was divided into four standard categories: 0.01-1.00mm, 1.01-2.00mm, 2.01-4.00mm and > 4.01 mm. Melanoma mortalities were calculated among white men and women by age and thickness. We used a Bayesian analysis to calculate the probability of an individual dying from a melanoma of a given gender, age, and thickness. We then compared these probabilities between men and women. Results: Among white men, the largest increases in mortality rates occurred in the jump from the 45-49 to 50-54 age group at an increase of 68% for 0.01-1.00mm tumors, and from the 50-54 to 55-59 age group at an increase of 91% for 1.01-2.00mm tumors, 71% 2.01-4.00mm tumors and 80% for > 4.01mm tumors. In white women, mortality rates regardless of thickness increased at a slow incremental pace, across all age groups at an average overall rate of 36%. Mortality rates for white men with < 1mm and 1.01-2mm melanomas were comparable within the age groups less than 64 years, as was the case for white women with tumors of these thicknesses. The probability of a man dying was greater than of a woman for any age or thickness category. Conclusions: Melanoma mortality rate trends are nuanced and can vary significantly by age, thickness, and gender. In white men, mortality rates begin to accelerate sharply around the mid-50s age group. Screening efforts should therefore target detecting melanoma in middle-aged males in the in situ or earliest stage.