Kondratiev Waves in the US Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 28-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Sixth Order ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Post Industrial

The aim of the article was to determine the time of occurrence of Kondratiev waves in the US economy and the assessment of their power from the moment of emergence to up to now. Because of the spectral analysis of deviations from the trend of a number of real per capita GDP for the 1790-2010 years in the economic dynamics of the US identified Kondratiev waves. The obtained results show that the US economy were formed in the second half of the XIX century. In the second half of the XX century, during the formation of post-industrial economy the power of Kondratiev waves began to decline. The existence of Kondratiev waves. during the last half century enables identification of the US economy at least three technological structures, including the fourth, fifth and sixth order.

scholarly journals Saldo Comercial De Productos Por Habitante De México, 2001-2014. Un Comparativo Con La Región APEC

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 248
Author(s):  
Antonio Favila Tello ◽  
América Ivonne Zamora Torres
Keyword(s):  
International Business ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The Other ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Extractive Economies ◽  
Constant Prices

Trade balance per capita is one of the international trade indicators that experts frequently use to evaluate a country’s performance in trade and evaluate its commercial policies. Exports, imports and the trade balance per capita of the 21 APEC countries were calculated for the 2001-2014 period in order to observe and evaluate its recent evolution, especially for the Mexican case. The data used only covered merchandises according to their value in US dollars at constant prices of 2014. Results suggest the existence of trade surpluses in extractive economies such as Brunei, Papua New Guinea and Russia. The exponential growth of exports from Vietnam and China is also demonstrated as well as the outstanding international business activity in Singapore and Hong Kong (which in per capita indicators outweighed all of the other members of APEC). Conditions of trade deficit are detected for powerful economies such as United States and Japan. On the other hand, Mexico shows a balanced condition in this indicator, an important and growing automotive industry and a noteworthy dependence on the US economy.

Kondratieff Cycles in Developed Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century

The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.

Contribution of the New Post-Industrial Orders in the Per Capita GDP of the European Regions of Russia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 4-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Federal District ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Wide Spread ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Central Federal District ◽  
The North ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Post Industrial ◽  
Regions Of Russia

Based on econometric models with the use of Rosstat A. Madison’s data it was found. The spread of new — post-industrial technological structures of the European economy of Russia is uneven. The contribution of new orders in the per capita GRP in the Central Federal District reached 457,581.7 rubles in 2014 and amounted to 62.7% of per capita GRP. The economy of the Central Federal District in the systems of new technological structures used 5-12% of the resources. The contribution of the new orders in the per capita GRP in the Northwestern Federal District in 2014 reached 200 709.6 rubles and amounted to 34.4% of per capita GRP. In the Northwestern Federal District in the systems of new technological ways 4-7% of resources are used. The contribution of the new orders in the per capita GRP in the Southern Federal District has reached 110 661.7 rubles in 2014 and amounted to 28.8% of per capita GRP. In the Southern Federal District in the systems of new technological ways 2-6% of resources are used. In the North Caucasus Federal District the postindustrial technological way are not wide-spread.

scholarly journals Trends Of Changes In The Polish Industry Innovativeness (Against The Background Of Leading World Economies)

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Mazurkiewicz ◽  
Rozalia Sitkowska
Keyword(s):  
Venture Capital ◽  
Processing Industry ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
Business Financing ◽  
Investment Goods ◽  
The Eu

Tendencies concerning innovativeness changes in selected sectors of the Polish economy were identified in the paper. The trends were depicted against the background of the USA, Japan and the EU-15 and they comprised: public and business financing of the R&D area with reference to GDP, R&D expenditure per capita, and venture capital funds supporting innovations commercialization. The observed correlation between the financing level of the R&D area and the innovativeness level of the US economy made the basis for the analysis conducted. The analysis concentrated on trends occurring in the Polish economy in the context of industry innovativeness, in particular processing industry, including the sector of investment goods. Conclusions resulting from the analysis of innovation commercialization processes with venture capital funds were presented. Countermeasures which were taken in Poland to prevent the marginalization of financing the R&D area were demonstrated as well.

L'Occidente e il Resto del Mondo nell'economia mondiale: un'interpretazione Maddisoniana e Malthusiana dal 1000 al 2030

ARGOMENTI ◽  
2009 ◽  
pp. 7-30
Author(s):  
Angus Maddison
Keyword(s):  
Capita Income ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Income Levels ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
World Income ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Past Millennium

- This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita GDP in western Europe and the US was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Hong and Singapore had achieved considerable catchup. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. I conclude by comparing my analysis with the Malthusian interpretation of Oded Galor.

Contribution of Post-Industrial Orders in Russia per capita GDP, Estimated by the IMF Methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 13-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
International Comparisons ◽  
Working Population ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Post Industrial ◽  
The Imf

The purpose of work consisted in receiving estimates of distribution of new technological ways in economy of Russia based on the international comparisons. For the ensuring of the international comparisons the estimates of GDP of Russia are received by taking into account the application of methodology of the IMF. For assessment of a contribution of post-industrial technological ways it was accepted that per capita GDP represents the sum of deposits of industrial and post-industrial ways. It is established that the contribution of post-industrial ways approaches 50%. Employment in systems of new treasures makes no more than 10-20% of the working population.

scholarly journals US Real GDP Growth and Impact of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. p20
Author(s):  
Dhameeth, G.S. ◽  
Diasz, L.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Work Hours ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Us ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The global pandemic, COVID-19, has exacerbated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of the global economy since its outbreak in December 2019. One of the most affected economies, due to the global pandemic, is the US economy, currently crippled by an increased number of COVID-19 related deaths, layoffs, reduced work hours, and other related natural disasters, such as winter storms. Hence, it is imperative that the damage done to the GDP growth is evaluated meticulously to craft favorable monetary and fiscal policies to uplift economic performance. One of the key yet debated methods used by many economists is utilizing real GDP per capita as an economic performance measurement tool. Using two economic datasets and a multiple regression model, we compared real GDP per capita performance in the US economy between the second and third quarters of 2020. The study finds that the impact seems detrimental due to restrictions imposed on economic activities, such as business closures, disturbances in the supply chain, employee layoffs and reduced work hours. However, in the third quarter of 2020 COVID-19 after some of the COVID-19 imposed restrictions were lifted, the real GDP per capita significantly increased.

Kondratiev Cycles in Norwegian Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Коржов ◽  
Vladimir Korzhov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Post Industrial

The article presents the results of studies of the formation and development of the Kondratiev cycles in the Norwegian economy, which is one of the most industrialized countries of the continent. At the beginning of the XXI century Norway one of the three largest oil exporters in the world, along with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The research operates The data on real per capita GDP during 1830–2008. Economic-mathematical modeling revealed the stages of Kondratiev cycles’ formation in the economy of Norway. The data showed that Kondratievcycles can be observed in Norwegian economy during the formation and development of post-industrial economy.

Kondratieff Waves and Technological Modes in Australia`s Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 40-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
Maximum Productivity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Technological Mode ◽  
Fourth Mode

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to determine the time of beginning of Kondratieff waves and origin of new technological modes and their productivity. The regression analysis of the time series of Australia real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 allowed to determine the date of beginning of the third, fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratieff cycles and the date of origin of the fourth, fifth and sixth technological modes in Australia`s economy. The results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fourth technological mode in Australia`s economy occurred in the late XIX century, the fifth — in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The modeling of technological modes` productivity allowed determining the productivity of relict and modern technological modes in the economy of Australia. The results showed that the productivity of relict modes in Australia`s economy is 3465 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the fourth mode is 4437 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990, the fifth — 8874 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the sixth mode in the economy of Australia is 26 888 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The results of the research may be used in order to evaluate the productivity of modern technological modes in Russian economy.

Searching for new Sources of growth. Are the Developing Countries Catching up with the Developed ones?

2015 ◽  
pp. 30-53
Author(s):  
V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The West ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Divergence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relative Standing

This paper examines the trajectory of growth in the Global South. Before the 1500s all countries were roughly at the same level of development, but from the 1500s Western countries started to grow faster than the rest of the world and PPP GDP per capita by 1950 in the US, the richest Western nation, was nearly 5 times higher than the world average and 2 times higher than in Western Europe. Since 1950 this ratio stabilized - not only Western Europe and Japan improved their relative standing in per capita income versus the US, but also East Asia, South Asia and some developing countries in other regions started to bridge the gap with the West. After nearly half of the millennium of growing economic divergence, the world seems to have entered the era of convergence. The factors behind these trends are analyzed; implications for the future and possible scenarios are considered.

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