scholarly journals On measuring agreement with numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes: A re-analysis of data from Wintle, Fraser, Wills, Nicholson, and Fidler (2019)

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248424
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Daniel Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Shared Understanding ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
Presentation Formats ◽  
Positive Attribute ◽  
Measuring Agreement

Across a wide range of domains, experts make probabilistic judgments under conditions of uncertainty to support decision-making. These judgments are often conveyed using linguistic expressions (e.g., x is likely). Seeking to foster shared understanding of these expressions between senders and receivers, the US intelligence community implemented a communication standard that prescribes a set of probability terms and assigns each term an equivalent numerical probability range. In an earlier PLOS ONE article, [1] tested whether access to the standard improves shared understanding and also explored the efficacy of various enhanced presentation formats. Notably, they found that embedding numeric equivalents in text (e.g., x is likely [55–80%]) substantially outperformed the status-quo approach in terms of the percentage overlap between participants’ interpretations of linguistic probabilities (defined in terms of the numeric range equivalents they provided for each term) and the numeric ranges in the standard. These results have important prescriptive implications, yet Wintle et al.’s percentage overlap measure of agreement may be viewed as unfairly punitive because it penalizes individuals for being more precise than the stipulated guidelines even when the individuals’ interpretations fall perfectly within the stipulated ranges. Arguably, subjects’ within-range precision is a positive attribute and should not be penalized in scoring interpretive agreement. Accordingly, in the present article, we reanalyzed Wintle et al.’s data using an alternative measure of percentage overlap that does not penalize in-range precision. Using the alternative measure, we find that percentage overlap is substantially elevated across conditions. More importantly, however, the effects of presentation format and probability level are highly consistent with the original study. By removing the ambiguity caused by Wintle et al.’s unduly punitive measure of agreement, these findings buttress Wintle et al.’s original claim that the methods currently used by intelligence organizations are ineffective at coordinating the meaning of uncertainty expressions between intelligence producers and intelligence consumers. Future studies examining agreement between senders and receivers are also encouraged to reflect carefully on the most appropriate measures of agreement to employ in their experiments and to explicate the bases for their methodological choices.

scholarly journals On measuring agreement with numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes: A re-analysis of data from Wintle, Fraser, Wills, Nicholson, and Fidler (2019)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Daniel Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Shared Understanding ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
Presentation Formats ◽  
Positive Attribute ◽  
Measuring Agreement ◽  
Support Decision Making

Across a wide range of domains, experts make probabilistic judgments under conditions of uncertainty to support decision-making. These judgments are often conveyed using linguistic expressions (e.g., x is likely). Seeking to foster shared understanding of these expressions between senders and receivers, the US intelligence community implemented a communication standard that prescribes a set of probability terms and assigns each term an equivalent numerical probability range. Wintle et al. (2019) tested whether access to the standard improves shared understanding and also explored the efficacy of various enhanced presentation formats. Notably, they found that embedding numeric equivalents in text (e.g., x is likely [55-80%]) substantially outperformed the status quo approach in terms of the percentage overlap between participants’ interpretations of linguistic probabilities (defined in terms of the numeric range equivalents they provided for each term) and the numeric ranges in the standard. These results have important prescriptive implications, yet Wintle et al.’s percentage overlap measure of agreement may be viewed as unfairly punitive since it penalizes individualsfor being more precise than the stipulated guidelines even when the individuals’ interpretations fall perfectly within the stipulated ranges. Arguably, within-range precision is a positive attribute. Accordingly, we reanalyzed Wintle et al.’s data using an alternative measure of percentage overlap that does not penalize in-range precision. Predictably, we find that percentage overlap is elevated across conditions. More importantly, the effects of presentation format and probability level are highly consistent with the original study. By removing further ambiguity, these findings buttress the claim that the methods currently used by intelligence organizations are ineffective at coordinating the meaning of uncertainty expressions between intelligence producers and intelligence consumers.

РУССКИЙ ЯЗЫК – ЯЗЫК ВЫСШЕГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ В КГМА

2020 ◽  
pp. 50-53
Author(s):  
Г. Кульбаева
Keyword(s):  
Russian Language ◽  
Educational Activity ◽  
Official Language ◽  
Main Motivation ◽  
Language Functioning ◽  
Teaching Language ◽  
Medical Academy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Russian Language

Аннотация. В статье рассматривается вопрос о функционировании русского языка в образовательном пространстве КГМА. Большое место в работе занимает роль русского языка в учебной деятельности студентов-медиков. Мотивацией к изучению именно, русского языка являются следующие факторы: статус официального языка; возможность привлечь внимание широкого круга специалистов к своим исследованиям; понимание престижности русского языка. В статье нашли отражение различные формы работы по расширению сферы использования русского языка в медицинской академии. В работе уделено внимание и профильным учебным пособиям, разработанным автором статьи. Анализ некоторых заданий позволяет констатировать тот факт, что содержание пособии определено через компетенции, одной из которых является языковая. Ключевые слова:язык обучения, фундаментальные науки, соматические ФЕ, компетентностная основа, профессиональная направленность, жаргонная лексика. Аннотация. Макалада КММАнын билим берүү мейкиндеги орус тилин өздөштүү маселеси каралат. Орус тили студент-медиктердин окуу ишмердигинде чоң роль ойнойт. Расмий тил статусу, өз изилдөөлөрүнө көпчүлүк адистердин көңүлүн буруу мүмкүнчүлүгү, орус тилинин баркын түшүнүү, өзгөчөлөп билүүгө далил болуп эсептелет. Макалада медициналык академияда орус тили колдонуу чөйрөсүн кеңейтүү боюнча иштөөнү ар кандай формалары көрсөтүлгөн. Эмгекте макаланын автору иштеп чыккан адистик окуу колдонмолорго да көңул бурулган. Кээ бир тапшырмалардын анализи колдонмонун мазмуну компетенция, анын бирөөсү тил аркылуу аныкталганын факт катары көрсөтүүгө мүмкүндүк түзөт. Түйүндүү сөздөр: фундаменталдык илимдер, соматикалык фразеологизмдер, компетенттик негиз, профессионалдык багытталыш, жаргондук лексика. Summary. The article discusses the Russian language functioning in the of the KSMA’s educational space. Russian language plays a big role in the educational activity of the medical students. The main motivation of learning the Russian language has the following points: the status of the official language; the opportunity to attract the attention of a wide range of specialists to their research; understanding of the prestige of the Russian language. The article reflected various forms of work to expand the scope of the use of the Russian language at the medical academy. The work focuses on specialized textbooks developed by the author of the article. An analysis of some tasks allows us to state the fact that the content of the manual is determined through competencies, one of which is the language. Key words: teaching language, fundamental sciences, somatic phraseological unit, slang vocabulary.

The Tragedy of Lebanon

1984 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
Mahmud A. Faksh
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
World War ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Henry Kissinger ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
New States

I.Since the end of World War 11, approximately eighty new states havebeen established. Only two, Pakistan and Cyprus, have undergone theagony of dismemberment when Bangladesh broke off in 1973 and theTurkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was declared in 1983. The worldmay now be witnessing the possible breakup of yet a third state:Lebanon, whose disintegration has been accelerated since the June 1982Israeli invasion.Shortly after the invasion began, Henry Kissinger assessed itsconsequence for Lebanon’s future, concluding, “It is neither desirablenor possible to return to the status quo ante in Lebanon.” One possibleoutcome was that some Syrian and Israeli forces would remain in thenorthern and southern ends, respectively, and the central government’sauthority would ostensibly cover the rest of the country. Implicit in theKissinger diagnosis is the possibility of eventual partition.Though the gloomy assessment by the “wizard” of US. foreign policyshould by no means be construed as a portent of an official shift awayfrom the publicly stated US. support of “Lebanon’s sovereignty andterritorial integrity,” a shadow was cast on the country’s prospects.Subsequent developments have seemed to indicate that Lebanon’sdemise looms larger than at any time since the beginning of the civil warin 1975-76.For over a year and a half national fragmentation has proceededinexorably. What many people once could imagine only with difficulty,they now acknowledge: in reality, Lebanon is facing possible death. TheSouth (35 percent of the land area) is occupied by Israel; the North andthe Biqa’ (45 percent) are controlled by Syria; Kasrawan (15 percent) iscontrolled by the Christian Maronite forces (the Lebanese Front forces),which are not subject to the government’s authority. The rest of thecountry-beleaguered Beirut and environs-was until the February1984 breakdown under the government’s shaky control supported bysymbolic US., French, Italian, and British units. The Multi-NationalForce (MNF) was subject to increasing attacks by Muslim leftist factions,as witnessed in the October 23 bombing of the quarters of U.S.Marines and French troops. Thus, instead of keeping peace, the MNFbecame ,a partisan force trying to protect itself. The US. and Frenchforces in particular seemed to have outlived their usefulness as“peacekeepers.” Recurrent fighting in southern Beirut and in theadjacent Chouf mountains, that pitted Christian Maronites and armyunits against Shi‘ite and Druse Muslims constantly threatened theexistence of President Amin Gemayel’s government and consequently arenewal of the civil war. This situation culminated in February 1984 inthe resignation of the Shafiq al-Wazzan’s cabinet, the loss ofgovernment’s control of West Beirut to Muslim-leftist militias, and theimminent collapse of Amin Gemayel’s presidency ...

Scripturalizing and the Second Amendment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosamond C. Rodman
Keyword(s):  
White Women ◽  
White Children ◽  
The Bible ◽  
Second Amendment ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
Us Constitution ◽  
Half Decade

Expanding beyond the text of the Bible, this chapter explores instead a piece of political scripture, namely the Second Amendment of the US Constitution. Over the last half-decade, the Second Amendment has come to enjoy the status of a kind of scripture-within-scripture. Vaulted to a much more prominent status than it had held in the first 150 years or so of its existence, and having undergone a remarkable shift in what most Americans think it means, the Second Amendment provides an opportunity to examine the linguistic, racial, and gendered modes by which these changes were effected, paying particular attention to the ways in which white children and white women were conscripted into the role of the masculine, frontier-defending US citizen.

Recycling and Reuse in the Roman Economy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Computational Modelling ◽  
Late Antique ◽  
Roman Economy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Status ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
First Time ◽  
Site Types

The recycling and reuse of materials and objects were extensive in the past, but have rarely been embedded into models of the economy; even more rarely has any attempt been made to assess the scale of these practices. Recent developments, including the use of large datasets, computational modelling, and high-resolution analytical chemistry, are increasingly offering the means to reconstruct recycling and reuse, and even to approach the thorny matter of quantification. Growing scholarly interest in the topic has also led to an increasing recognition of these practices from those employing more traditional methodological approaches, which are sometimes coupled with innovative archaeological theory. Thanks to these efforts, it has been possible for the first time in this volume to draw together archaeological case studies on the recycling and reuse of a wide range of materials, from papyri and textiles, to amphorae, metals and glass, building materials and statuary. Recycling and reuse occur at a range of site types, and often in contexts which cross-cut material categories, or move from one object category to another. The volume focuses principally on the Roman Imperial and late antique world, over a broad geographical span ranging from Britain to North Africa and the East Mediterranean. Last, but not least, the volume is unique in focusing upon these activities as a part of the status quo, and not just as a response to crisis.

The Crisis of the Ryukyus (1877–82)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Sze-lok Leung ◽  
Anthony Carty
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Colonial Power ◽  
Independent State ◽  
The People ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
Historical Viewpoint

Okinawa is now considered as Japanese territory, without challenge from most world powers. However, this is debatable from a historical viewpoint. The Ryukyu Kingdom which dominated the islands was integrated into Japan in 1879. The transformation is seen by Wang Hui as a process of modernization. This chapter argues the issue from an international law perspective. It shows that Ryukyu was an independent State as demonstrated by the 1854 Ryukyu–US Treaty, although it sent regular tributes to China. The Japanese integration by coercion is not justifiable. The people of Ryukyu were willing to continue being a tributary State rather than part of Japan. Britain, as the greatest colonial power, did not object. China and the US attempted to intervene in this affair, but no treaty has so far been concluded. Therefore, the status of Ryukyu/Okinawa remains unresolved and may need to be revisited, while putting the history context into consideration.

ESRC Review

2020 ◽  
pp. 657-698
Author(s):  
Simeon J. Yates ◽  
Jordana Blejmar
Keyword(s):  
Social Research ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
Levels Of Automation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Technological World ◽  
Ways Of Being

Two workshops were part of the final steps in the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) commissioned Ways of Being in a Digital Age project that is the basis for this Handbook. The ESRC project team coordinated one with the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (ESRC-DSTL) Workshop, “The automation of future roles”; and one with the US National Science Foundation (ESRC-NSF) Workshop, “Changing work, changing lives in the new technological world.” Both workshops sought to explore the key future social science research questions arising for ever greater levels of automation, use of artificial intelligence, and the augmentation of human activity. Participants represented a wide range of disciplinary, professional, government, and nonprofit expertise. This chapter summarizes the separate and then integrated results. First, it summarizes the central social and economic context, the method and project context, and some basic definitional issues. It then identifies 11 priority areas needing further research work that emerged from the intense interactions, discussions, debates, clustering analyses, and integration activities during and after the two workshops. Throughout, it summarizes how subcategories of issues within each cluster relate to central issues (e.g., from users to global to methods) and levels of impacts (from wider social to community and organizational to individual experiences and understandings). Subsections briefly describe each of these 11 areas and their cross-cutting issues and levels. Finally, it provides a detailed Appendix of all the areas, subareas, and their specific questions.

Punk as Folk: Continuities and Tensions in the UK and Beyond

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pete Dale
Keyword(s):  
Folk Music ◽  
Music Making ◽  
Collective Creativity ◽  
Living Tradition ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

Numerous claims have been made by a wide range of commentators that punk is somehow “a folk music” of some kind. Doubtless there are several continuities. Indeed, both tend to encourage amateur music-making, both often have affiliations with the Left, and both emerge at least partly from a collective/anti-competitive approach to music-making. However, there are also significant tensions between punk and folk as ideas/ideals and as applied in practice. Most obviously, punk makes claims to a “year zero” creativity (despite inevitably offering re-presentation of at least some existing elements in every instance), whereas folk music is supposed to carry forward a tradition (which, thankfully, is more recognized in recent decades as a subject-to-change “living tradition” than was the case in folk’s more purist periods). Politically, meanwhile, postwar folk has tended more toward a socialist and/or Marxist orientation, both in the US and UK, whereas punk has at least rhetorically claimed to be in favor of “anarchy” (in the UK, in particular). Collective creativity and competitive tendencies also differ between the two (perceived) genre areas. Although the folk scene’s “floor singer” tradition offers a dispersal of expressive opportunity comparable in some ways to the “anyone can do it” idea that gets associated with punk, the creative expectation of the individual within the group differs between the two. Punk has some similarities to folk, then, but there are tensions, too, and these are well worth examining if one is serious about testing out the common claim, in both folk and punk, that “anyone can do it.”

scholarly journals Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Deposition of TiO2: A Review

Materials ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 2931
Author(s):  
Soumya Banerjee ◽  
Ek Adhikari ◽  
Pitambar Sapkota ◽  
Amal Sebastian ◽  
Sylwia Ptasinska
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Gas Flow ◽  
Plasma Deposition ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure Plasma ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Pressure Plasma ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Status ◽  
Deposition Techniques

Atmospheric pressure plasma (APP) deposition techniques are useful today because of their simplicity and their time and cost savings, particularly for growth of oxide films. Among the oxide materials, titanium dioxide (TiO2) has a wide range of applications in electronics, solar cells, and photocatalysis, which has made it an extremely popular research topic for decades. Here, we provide an overview of non-thermal APP deposition techniques for TiO2 thin film, some historical background, and some very recent findings and developments. First, we define non-thermal plasma, and then we describe the advantages of APP deposition. In addition, we explain the importance of TiO2 and then describe briefly the three deposition techniques used to date. We also compare the structural, electronic, and optical properties of TiO2 films deposited by different APP methods. Lastly, we examine the status of current research related to the effects of such deposition parameters as plasma power, feed gas, bias voltage, gas flow rate, and substrate temperature on the deposition rate, crystal phase, and other film properties. The examples given cover the most common APP deposition techniques for TiO2 growth to understand their advantages for specific applications. In addition, we discuss the important challenges that APP deposition is facing in this rapidly growing field.

scholarly journals Animal and Human Vaccines against West Nile Virus

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1073
Author(s):  
Juan-Carlos Saiz
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Specific Therapy ◽  
Phase Iii Clinical Trials ◽  
Neuroinvasive Disease ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status

West Nile virus (WNV) is a widely distributed enveloped flavivirus transmitted by mosquitoes, which main hosts are birds. The virus sporadically infects equids and humans with serious economic and health consequences, as infected individuals can develop a severe neuroinvasive disease that can even lead to death. Nowadays, no WNV-specific therapy is available and vaccines are only licensed for use in horses but not for humans. While several methodologies for WNV vaccine development have been successfully applied and have contributed to significantly reducing its incidence in horses in the US, none have progressed to phase III clinical trials in humans. This review addresses the status of WNV vaccines for horses, birds, and humans, summarizing and discussing the challenges they face for their clinical advance and their introduction to the market.

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