scholarly journals China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-50
Author(s):  
Bambang Suprayogi ◽  
Tarek M Harchaoui
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Job Destruction ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Job Demand ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

The impact of “China shocks” on trading partners is a source of a massive supply shock that displaces foreign manufacturing producers, and an important source of demand shock that propelled forward a wide range of foreign sectors. The “common” existing literature mainly focused on the supply shock and its impact, leaving a large span of “China shocks” unexplained. Thus, this article undertake the important task to account for the dual track of “China shocks” and their impacts on a set of emerging economies, for which the evidence remains scanty. Using a global input-output methodology which highlights the job creation from exports and the job destruction aspect of imports, we provide evidence on the employment effect of bilateral trade with China. Our results suggest that considering the net effect of supply and demand related to China shocks mainly lead to negative job demand, and press the ringing bell for the government.JEL Classification: F1, F16, F66How to Cite:Suprayogi, B., & Harchaoui, T. M. (2020). China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, Vol. 9(1), 31-50. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i1.13550.

Why NTM is a Challenge in Trade Relations? Evidence from India–Africa Agricultural Trade

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar ◽  
Nalin Bharti
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Coverage Ratio ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Trading Partners

India and Africa have experienced the rapid expansion of bilateral trade during the last two decades. The India–Africa trade is understudied in general and in the agriculture sector. Very few considerable efforts have been made to study the agro-trade restrictions between both the economies. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to empirically identify the recent evidence of non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed on the agro-products between India and Africa, which also work as non-tariff barriers. It is perceived that India being one of the frequent users of NTMs in the world poses many challenges for its trading partners. Based on the Revealed Trade Barrier (RTB) index, using 28 agro-products (HS-4 digit level), this paper assesses bilateral agro-trade barriers. The frequency index ( Fi) and coverage ratio ( Cr) were used to analyse the complex nature of NTMs. The study findings show that both trading partners imposed a wide range of NTMs on each other’s agro-products, which resulted in the discriminatory effects on trade. Comparatively, India has imposed the lesser number of NTMs on Africa’s agro-products. Despite the recent bilateral trade agreements between both the economies, trade barriers were frequently noticed. The paper suggests applying strategic trade policies and reduction of NTMs along with harmonisation of standards to flourish the bilateral agro-trade.

Skilled Labor Immigration and External Trade in Malaysia: A Pooled Data Analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Chuie Hong ◽  
A. Solucis Santhapparaj
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Skilled Immigrants ◽  
Skilled Immigration ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper attempts to further the immigrant-link literature by applying, for the first time, gravity models to Malaysia. Specifically the paper seeks to quantify the impact upon Malaysia's bilateral trade flows of ASEAN and non-ASEAN skilled immigration, and to identify the underlying mechanisms underpinning this relationship. The results indicate that skilled immigration positively affects both the imports and exports of Malaysia. Immigrant-link is stronger between Malaysia and ASEAN countries than to non-ASEAN countries. The magnitude of the elasticity with respect to trade is larger for imports than for exports. Skilled immigrants' demand for native products outweighs the business-links formed between Malaysian trading partners.

scholarly journals The Grain Market between the Reigns of Alexey Mikhailovich and Catherine the Great: Was there a ‘Price Revolution’?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Mustafin
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grain Market ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Regions Of Russia ◽  
Grain Prices

The author of this article attempts to reveal and systematise archival data on grain prices in Russia between the 1650s and 1700s and analyse their dynamics by comparing them with data for the eighteenth century. The study is based on a wide range of archival sources from the funds of the RSAAA (RGADA), CSA of Moscow (TsGA of Moscow), DM NLR (OR RNB), and SFI CANNR (GKU TsANO). The data from these sources make it possible to construct time series describing rye and oat price dynamics in the northern and central non-black earth regions of Russia. The author substantiates the homogeneity and reliability of the data received and determines the real prices. The resulting numbers make the author doubt the “price revolution” in eighteenth-century Russia. Throughout the eighteenth century, the average real prices remained below the level of the 1660s and 1670s. Only in the 1790s did prices briefly exceed this level. Overall, the Russian grain market was characterised by long-term price fluctuations. The author aims to explain this dynamic by analysing supply and demand in the grain market. More particularly, for the first time in the historiography, the author examines the connection between Russian grain prices and yield in the second half of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. It is established that in most cases, the relationship between these indicators was direct: as grain yield increased, prices did too. The article explains this seeming paradox. The data published by the author help not only to estimate the impact of various factors on grain prices during the period in question, but also solve practical tasks regarding various price indicators in grain equivalents.

External Sector: Between Congestion and Sanctions—‘Syrian Economy Case, 1987–2018’

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 382-401
Author(s):  
Forat Suliman ◽  
Homam Khwanda
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade Sector ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Impact

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the USA, European Union, Arab League and several other regulatory entities imposed negative economic sanctions on Syria—some of the most comprehensive ever implemented. This article first provides an assessment of Syrian foreign trade sector during the reform period of the 2000s and its impact on economic growth. Second, it estimates the impact of sanctions and conflict on the trade sector of the Syrian economy. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity model between Syria and 78 trading partners (1987–2017). Multilateral sanctions and conflict-related disruptions demonstrate a large significant negative impact on Syria-bilateral trade flow by 65 per cent. We attempt to find out whether the Syrian economy was able to divert trade away from Europe and/or conduct de-Europeanisation. Findings confirm that the Syrian economy was unable to divert trade flow to Asian and other countries due to the conflict-related congestion and distance factor. JEL: C33, F10

scholarly journals The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0249118
Author(s):  
Xing Yao ◽  
Yongzhong Zhang ◽  
Rizwana Yasmeen ◽  
Zhen Cai
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Preferential Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Preferential Trade ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Trade agreements are thought to raise trade integration, but existing preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are insufficient in measuring market access of products. This study develops a product-based coverage index of PTAs using the World Trade Organization (WTO) preferential trade agreements and calculates bilateral trade measures using the EORA multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables covering 189 countries worldwide over the period 1990–2015; the structural gravity model is employed to test how PTAs affect bilateral trade. Our findings show that countries sharing a common PTA could boost the trade volume compared to those without PTAs, supporting the trade creation effect. However, the trade promotion effect of the product-based coverage index of PTAs is significant only if the member countries are low-and middle-income countries. Further, the wide range of product liberalization brought by PTAs can promote global production networks by stimulating the trade of intermediate goods. Our results are important for understanding the market access effect of PTAs with the increasing development of trade integration and global value chains (GVCs).

scholarly journals Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Bilateral Trade: Experience From Asian Emerging Economies

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110544
Author(s):  
Hafiz M. Sohail ◽  
Mir Zatullah ◽  
Zengfu Li
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Corruption Perception ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on bilateral trade between East and South Asian emerging economies, including their related trading partners. We cover the bilateral data on trade and FDI from June 2001 to June 2019. We estimate an augmented gravity model of trade to examine the study sample. This study is the first to use the Mundlak approaches an alternative for the fixed effect model to empirically estimate the relationship between FDI and trade among the countries in the region. Results show that free trade agreements (FTAs) and the corruption perception index (CPI) significantly and positively affect bilateral trade. However, the distance variable has become insignificant after introducing the FTA variable to the model. This finding indicates that FTAs marginalize the effect of distance on bilateral trade between the member countries. Thus, policymakers in developing countries should encourage and liberalize FDI from developing countries to enhance the bilateral trade volume.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trade Agreement on Agricultural Trade Flow in West Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Christiana Manu
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper analysed the impact of trade agreements on agricultural trade flow in West Africa. The study used 25 major trading partners of Ghana for 25 years between 1995 and 2019. Using the Gravity econometric model, this study finds that being a member of the trade agreement (FTA) is positively related to the aggregate flow of trade in agriculture. Trade agreements are found to increase trade flow with trading in agricultural products; especially trading partners in ECOWAS, if members agree on free trade in such products. The result shows that Ghana’s bilateral exports significantly increase with an increase in domestic and partner wages, and with distance, they decrease significantly. FTA was found to be a positive and significant determinant of Ghana’s bilateral trade in the long and the short run as well. Therefore, when there is a free trade agreement between countries, they tend to trade more among themselves than countries without the trade agreement.

scholarly journals Does Economic Integration Affect the Co-movement between Financial Markets? Evidence from Pakistani equity market with its global partners

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-158
Author(s):  
Ahmad Fraz ◽  
Arshad Hassan ◽  
Sumayya Chughtai
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the impact of bilateral trade, economic fundamentals and financial crisis on the equity market integration (EMI) of Pakistan’s equity market with its major global trading partners (China, India, USA and UK) for the period 1998 to 2016. The findings of the study indicate that bilateral trade and economic conditions have a significant impact on EMI, the export dependence of two economies may increase the EMI and import dependence reduces the EMI of two economies. Moreover, inflation differential and volatility in the bilateral exchange rate have a negative impact on EMI. It implies that inflation rates in Pakistan’s equity market are higher as compare to other markets and volatility in bilateral exchange rate may reduce trade flows and its tendency to follow other market (Bracker, Docking , & Koch, 1999). Furthermore, the financial crisis in an economy may reduce the EMI with its trading partners and EMI between different markets is affected by their bilateral economic fundamentals. The results imply that financial integration between different markets is affected by their bilateral economic fundamentals. The study has strong implications for international investors who need to assess risks and benefits associated with international portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals Social Development and International Trade in Central Europe

Equilibrium ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-19
Author(s):  
Andrzej Cieślik ◽  
Jan Jakub Michałek ◽  
Jerzy Mycielski
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Standard Set ◽  
The Impact

In this paper we study the impact of social development on international trade in Central and Eastern Europe using the generalized gravity model. Many previous empirical studies which explored the determinants of trade flows, concentrated only on traditional gravity variables, such as the size of trading partners, factor abundance, technology differences or distance. In our study, in addition to the standard set of gravity variables, we examine the role of aggregate social development indicators such as Human Development Index and its components. Our results show that both aggregate and disaggregate measures of social development affect the volume of international trade flows. In particular, the education indexes seem to be positively related to bilateral trade flows.

scholarly journals Does ICT Development Flatten the Globe? Evidence from International Trade Costs Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-46
Author(s):  
Moussa Keita
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Extended Gravity ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to bring new perspectives on the death of distance hypothesis by examining to what extent the intensification of ICT has contributed to attenuate the effect of distance on international trade issues. Our analysis is based on an extended gravity model constituted of 2827 country pairs observed from 2002 to 2012. The model is estimated by using the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable approach to deal with specificities of the panel gravity models that cannot be treated in classical fixed-effect or random-effect models. The estimations confirm significant beneficial effects of ICT regarding trade costs reduction. We found that bilateral trade costs are significantly low between countries that have a more densified communication network. And this effect appears to be strongly heterogeneous regarding the distance. In particular, we found that the impact of ICT on trade costs is greater when the distance between the trading partners is more important. We also found that the elasticity of trade costs to distance decreases as the level of ICT increases. These results appear robust to various sensitivity and robustness checks and are consistent with other studies. Finally, the results obtained in this study suggest the existence of strong distance-neutralizing effect of ICT. JEL Classifications Code: F14 ; O33

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