scholarly journals Approach for the COVID-19 Epidemic Source Localization in Russia Based on Mathematical Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1065-1089
Author(s):  
Vasiliy Osipov ◽  
Sergey Kuleshov ◽  
Alexandra Zaytseva ◽  
Alexey Aksenov
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Direct And Inverse Problems ◽  
The Public ◽  
Reverse Analysis ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
The Moment

The paper presents the results of statistical data from open sources on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic processing and a study сarried out to determine the place and time of its beginning in Russia. An overview of the existing models of the processes of the epidemic development and methods for solving direct and inverse problems of its analysis is given. A model for the development of the COVID-19 epidemic via a transport network of nine Russian cities is proposed: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk and Vladivostok. The cities are selected both by geographic location and by the number of population. The model consists of twenty seven differential equations. An algorithm for reverse analysis of the epidemic model has been developed. The initial data for solving the problem were the data on the population, the intensity of process transitions from one state to another, as well as data on the infection rate of the population at given time moments. The paper also provides the results of a detailed analysis of the solution approaches to modeling the development of epidemics by type of model (basic SEIR model, SIRD model, adaptive behavioral model, modified SEIR models), and by country (in Poland, France, Spain, Greece and others) and an overview of the applications that can be solved using epidemic spread modeling. Additional environmental parameters that affect the modeling of the spread of epidemics and can be taken into account to improve the accuracy of the results are considered. Based on the results of the modeling, the most likely source cities of the epidemic beginning in Russia, as well as the moment of its beginning, have been identified. The reliability of the estimates obtained is largely determined by the reliability of the statistics used on the development of COVID-19 and the available data on transportation network, which are in the public domain.

Bryozoans of the Kara Sea: estimation of species diversity and patterns of biogeographic composition

2021 ◽  
Vol 325 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-234
Author(s):  
N.V. Denisenko
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Species List ◽  
Faunistic Complex ◽  
The Moment

Until now, information on the bryozoan fauna of the Kara Sea was as the most unordered in comparison to other Arctic seas of Russia. The information in literature is mainly based on the data collected more than 80 years ago. Collections carried out over the last 30 years made it possible to expand the understanding not only of the species richness of this group, but also to study its spatial variation within the sea. At the moment, the species list of bryozoans in the Kara Sea includes 230 names. Of these, 42 species were recorded for the first time in this area of the Arctic. The fauna richness varies with depth and geographic location of sampling sites. Comparison of the species composition of bryozoans within 6 sectors defined on the basis of differences in environmental parameters indicates the presence of a single faunistic complex. The biogeographic composition of the fauna is characterized by the predominance of the boreal-arctic species (67%) over the arctic (30%); the share of boreal species is only 3%. Comparison of bryozoans from the Kara Sea with faunas from other areas of the Arctic region indicates a closer similarity of its fauna with the fauna of the Barents Sea than with the fauna of bryozoans from the Laptev Sea.

PROBLEMS CAUSED BY SMALL PIG FARM ODOR AROUND THE WESTERN SONGKHLA LAKE BASIN

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Papontee Teeraphan
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Urgent Problem ◽  
The Public ◽  
Pig Farms ◽  
Pig Farm ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Source Of Information ◽  
Proper Solutions

Pollution is currently a significant issue arising awareness throughout the world. In Thailand, pollution can often be seen in any part of the country. Air pollution is pointed as an urgent problem. This pollution has not damaged only to human health and lives, it has destroyed environment, and possibly leading to violence. In Phattalung, air pollution is affecting to the residents’ lives. Especially, when the residents who are mostly agriculturists have not managed the waste resulted from the farm. In Phattalung, at the moment, there are many pig farms, big and small. Some of them are only for consuming for a family, some, however, are being consumed for the business which pigs will be later purchased by big business companies. Therefore, concerning pollution, the researcher and the fund giver were keen to focus on the points of the air pollution of the small pig farms. This is because it has been said that those farms have not been aware on the pollution issue caused by the farms. Farm odor is very interesting which can probably lead to following problems. The researcher also hopes that this research can be used as a source of information by the government offices in order to be made even as a policy or a proper legal measurement. As the results, the study shows that, first, more than half of the samples had smelled the farm odor located nearby their communities, though it had not caused many offenses. Second, the majority had decided not to act or response in order to solve the odor problem, but some of them had informed the officers. The proper solutions in reducing offenses caused by pig farm odor were negotiation and mediation. Last, the majority does not perceive about the process under the Public Health Act B.E. 2535.

MEMIKAT HATI WAJIB PAJAK SEHINGGA MEMILIKI WILLINGNESS TO COMPLY MELALUI PENYULUHAN PAJAK BERDASARKAN FOGG BEHAVIORAL MODEL

INFO ARTHA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 56-79
Author(s):  
NFN Khusnaini ◽  
Agung Widi Hatmoko
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Experimental Process

Attitudes towards tax compliance (willingness to comply) Indonesian society is still low. Required an innovative tax dissemination to increase it. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the tax dissemination based on Fogg Behavioral Model (FBM) approach may increase wiliingness to comply. The FBM based tax dissemination asserts that for a person to perform a target behavior, which is a willingness to comply, he or she must be sufficiently motivated, have the ability to perform the behavior, and be trigerred, to perform the behavior. This research is a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of statistical data results of the questionnaire, interviews, and observations of the respondent and the experimental process of dissemination. The method used in this study is a quasi experimental with patterns of nonequivalent control group (pretest-post which is not equivalent). Based on the results of data analysis, interviews and observations of the respondent and the experiment, this research showed that theFBMbasedtaxdissemination hasapositiveimpactto willingnesstocomplyofthetaxpayers. 

TYPES AND MOTIVES OF SOCIAL ADVERTISING SLOGANS ON ROAD SAFETY

2021 ◽  
pp. 64-70
Author(s):  
Ю.П. Комарницкая
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Social Problems ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
The Public ◽  
Social Advertising

Социальная реклама – важный инструмент воздействия на аудиторию в целях привлечения внимания общественности к важным социальным проблемам, изменения поведенческой модели общества. Такая реклама должна воздействовать в первую очередь на эмоции, вызывать радость, страх, шок или негодование. Успех рекламного произведения во многом зависит от слогана, поэтому при его создании важно использовать языковые средства, которые повлияют на сознание аудитории. Social advertising is an important tool for influencing the audience in order to attract the public to urgent social problems, change the behavioral model of society. Such advertising should affect emotions, cause joy, fear, shock or indignation. The success of an advertising product depends largely on the slogan, so it is important to use the language tools that will affect the audience's consciousness when creating it

Possible Influence of Geographic Location and Colony Counts on Guidelines for Diagnosis of Streptococcal Infections in Rheumatic Fever

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1972 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 636-636
Author(s):  
Norman Lewak
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatic Fever ◽  
Medical Practice ◽  
Streptococcal Infection ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Streptococcal Infections ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Future

In their "Guidelines for the Diagnosis of Streptococcal Infection" (Pediatrics, 48:573, 1971), Honikman and Massell did not specify whether the guidelines should vary by geographic location. Taking into consideration the economic factors mentioned by the authors, should the same guidelines apply to different areas of the country which have markedly different incidences of rheumatic fever? We are all aware that the public is (rightfully) taking a close look at the quality of medical practice. Practice audits appear to be a certainty in the future.

THE ROLE OF WOMEN IN THE PUBLIC EDUCATION OF THE SURKHAN OASIS(ON EXAMPLE IN THEYEARS OF INDEPENDENCE)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 62-66
Author(s):  
Sabohat B. Radjabova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Education ◽  
Education System ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
The State ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
The Public ◽  
Role Of Women

It is scientifically analyzed information about the activity of women in the education system of Surkhandarya region in the period of independence years and their achievements in this field through statistical data with examples over the years in this article. It is emphasized that the state pays attention to the work activities of selfless women, who have been awarded many medals and medals in this region, such as the Medal of “Shukhrat”, the Order of “Saglom avlod uchun”, the title of "Xalk ta`limi a`lochisi", is also mentioned separately

SPECIFIC FEATURES OF PROPERTY INTERESTS PROTECTION OF THE PENAL SYSTEM OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF CRIMINAL PROCEEDINGS AS REPRESENTATIVE OF A VICTIM

2021 ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Дмитрий Викторович Кияйкин
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Penal System ◽  
Court Decisions ◽  
Criminal Proceedings ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Legitimate Interests ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Moment

В статье проведен анализ существующей практики защиты имущественных интересов уголовно-исполнительной системы Российской Федерации при участии в уголовном процессе в качестве представителя потерпевшего, изложены рекомендации по улучшению данной работы с учетом особенностей сложившейся практики. Раскрываются особенности уголовно-процессуальной защиты на основе материалов территориальных органов и анализа дел указанной категории схарактеристикой эффективных решений иимеющихся проблем по защите имущественных интересов уголовно-исполнительной системы (далее - УИС), материалов практики защиты поуказанным вопросам, аналитических и статистических данных за 2018-2020 гг. Обращено внимание, чтона практике имеются сложности с определением размера возмещаемого ущерба и сроков исковой давности, а также с фактическим исполнением судебных решений овзыскании ущерба в связи с финансовой несостоятельностью должников. Важной проблемой по защите имущественных интересов остается отсутствие методики определения размера причиненного репутационного вреда органам иучреждениям уголовно-исполнительной системы Российской Федерации. Обеспечение своевременного допуска представителя органа илиучреждения УИС имеет существенное значение для защиты имущественных интересов, поскольку юридическое лицо получает фактическую возможность по отстаиванию своих законных интересов лишь смомента допуска представителя - физического лица. Автором определены направления работы должностных и иных заинтересованных лиц по реализации защиты имущественных интересов УИС при участии в уголовном процессе в качестве представителя потерпевшего. The article analyzes the existing practice of protecting the property interests of the Penal system of the Russian Federation when participating in criminal proceedings as a representative of the victim, and provides recommendations for improving this work, taking into account the features of the current practice. The article reveals the features of criminal procedure protection based on the materials of territorial bodies and the analysis of cases of this category with the characteristics of effective solutions and existing problems in protecting the property interests of the Penal system (hereinafter the FPS), materials of defense practice on these issues, analytical and statistical data for the period 2018-2020. Attention is drawn to the fact that in practice there are some peculiarities in determining the amount of damage to be compensated and the limitation period. Due to the financial insolvency of debtors in practice, there is a difficulty with the actual execution of court decisions on recovery of damages. An important problem in protecting property interests remains the lack of a methodology for determining the amount of reputational damage caused to the bodies and institutions of the Russian Federation's penal system. Ensuring the timely admission of a representative of a body or institution of a penal system is essential for the protection of property interests, since a legal entity gets the actual opportunity to defend its legitimate interests only from the moment of admission of a representative - an individual. The author defines the directions of work of officials and other interested persons to protect the property interests of the Penal system of the Russian Federation when participating in criminal proceedings as a representative of the victim.

scholarly journals Fiduciary Agreement Implementation in Car Credit Agreement on Financing Institutions of Mandiri Finance of Cirebon Based on Act No. 42 of 199 About Fiduciary

Jurnal Akta ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 655
Author(s):  
Ardiansyah Alrawi ◽  
Gunarto Gunarto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
The Public ◽  
Legal Development ◽  
Freedom Of Contract ◽  
Legal Effect ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Credit Agreement ◽  
The City

The emergence of various institutions today's economy helped spur the economy of the community. But unfortunately the growth of the economic institutions are not supported by an adequate legal development. The presence of various financial institutions helped bring a major role in economic development of society, especially the poor. These financial institutions emerged as a form of providing funds or capital goods for the public to purchase goods on payment in installments or periodically by consumers. Construction consumer finance based on an agreement with the principle of freedom of contract as legal bases for both parties. In practice financing undertaken by financial institutions poured in the form of a credit agreement. In each of providing credit to their customers finance institutions always face a risk, therefore the customer's business situation and developments to be followed continuously starts the moment the credit is given to the loan. As for giving legal protection to the parties in the process of providing collateral (guarantee), then one of them is with the enactment of Law Fiduciary. Implementation of lending followed by a fiduciary assurance processes at financial institutions in the city of Cirebon most important is the legal effect if the Borrower defaults which are expected to creditors (financial institutions) can be easily exercised fiduciary object. Constraints faced in a fiduciary guarantee is as follows: a. Any cost of making a deed by the Borrower felt heavy, incomplete b. Any requirements of the Borrower to elaborate on the type, brand and quality of the fiduciary object, c. The office registration still limited fiduciary, fiduciary registration e. The office could not provide information on everything about the guarantee with the issuance.Keywords: Financing Institution, Credit Agreements, Fiduciary.

scholarly journals Herpetofauna Distribution and Ecology in East Kutai District, East Kutai, East Kalimantan

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (8) ◽  
pp. 279-284
Author(s):  
Sus Trimurti ◽  
Andi Sarina ◽  
Lariman .
Keyword(s):  
Diversity Index ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Microsoft Excel ◽  
Field Orientation ◽  
The Public ◽  
East Kalimantan ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Distribution And Ecology ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Number Of Individuals

Herpetofauna consisting of reptiles and amphibians is a group of fauna whose biodiversity potential is rarely known and is not well known by the public. The purpose of this study was to determine the distribution, ecology and diversity of herpetofauna in Mesangat Wetlands. The method used in this research is the Visual Encounter Survey (VES) search method by searching directly for the type of herpetofauna around the predetermined pathway. Field orientation is carried out to determine the location of the observation, the location of the observation is divided into 3 locations (Mesangat Hilir, Tengah and Hulu) in one observation location there are 5 stations (lanes) for herpetofauna observation. Observations were made in the morning starting at 09.00 - 12.00 WITA and at night starting at 20.00 - 23.00 WITA. Recorded data related to the number of individuals, activities, time found, environmental parameters and measured SVL if possible. Identified species were found using the identification key book Field Frogs of Borneo Inger and Stuebing (2014) and A Field Guide to the Snakes of Borneo Stuebing, Inger and Lardner (2014). The data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2010. The results showed that the distribution of herpetofauna in Mesangat Wetlands was fairly evenly distributed and the ecology of Mesangat Wetlands supported for herpetofauna life and the diversity index value obtained was 1.53 which was classified as medium category.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document