scholarly journals GRACE score in assessing the risk of hospital outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism

2018 ◽  
pp. 25-31
Author(s):  
I. S. Mullova ◽  
N. A. Cherepanova ◽  
T. V. Pavlova ◽  
S. M. Khokhlunov ◽  
D. A. Gnilomedova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Bundle Branch Block ◽  
T Wave ◽  
Wave Inversion ◽  
Grace Score ◽  
Very High

Aim. To compare the PESI and GRACE scores in assessing the risk of hospital outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism.Material and methods. The study included 383 patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), hospitalized during the period of April 4, 2003 on September 18, 2014; 190 (49,6%) are men, the average age is 57,4 years±14,4 years. We considered the patient’s anamnesis, complaints, results of biochemical and instrumental tests, as well as the treatment carried out to the patients.Results. According to the risk stratification of PESI score, 86 (22,5%) patients had a very low risk of death, 88 (22,9%) had a low risk, 94 (24,5%) had an intermediate risk, 60 (15,%) — high risk and 55 (14,4%) patients have a very high risk. The combination of three ECG signs (SI-QIII, right bundle branch block and T-wave inversion in V1-V3) was significantly more common in patients with a very high PE risk — 14,5% (p=0,025). The most reliable sign of the most echographic (echoCG) criteria was dilatation of right ventricle (RV) (p=0,009) in a group of patients with a very high PE risk. According to the GRACE scale, 112 (29,2%) patients were assigned to the low risk group, and 271 (70,8%) patients — to the high risk group. ECG signs were observed more frequently in the high risk group: SI-QIII, T-wave inversion in III, V1-V3 leads, right bundle branch block (p<0,05). Pulmonary hypertension and RV dilatation according to echoCG prevailed in the high risk group (98,4% and 85,1%, respectively), p<0,05. The minimum value of points on the GRACE score for the deceased patients was 118 points. The GRACE scale showed high predictive ability with a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 63% (AUC=0,811, CI 95% 0,0738-0,884). However, the PESI score had a slightly greater predictive value with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 53% (AUC=0,879 compared with AUC=0,811 for the GRACE scale). Analysis of the PESI and GRACE scores showed a moderate correlation between them (r=0,668).Conclusion. The GRACE score showed a high predictive value for adverse outcomes in PE patients with a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 63%. The minimum score on the GRACE score for deceased patients was 118 points.

Treatment stratification in B-cell PTLD after solid organ transplantation (SOT) by international prognostic index (IPI) and response to rituximab: Interim results from the PTLD-2 trial.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 8045-8045
Author(s):  
Ralf Ulrich Trappe ◽  
Christian Koenecke ◽  
Martin H. Dreyling ◽  
Christiane Pott ◽  
Ulrich Duehrsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
B Cell ◽  
Primary Endpoint ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Solid Organ ◽  
Very High

8045 Background: The PTLD-1 trials have established risk-stratified sequential treatment of B-cell PTLD. After rituximab induction, patients (pts) in complete remission (25 %) received rituximab consolidation, while all others received R-CHOP. The PTLD-2 trial tests modified risk-stratification including clinical risk factors. These are the results of the 2nd scheduled interim analysis (40/60 planned pts). Methods: The prospective, multicenter phase II PTLD-2 trial (NCT02042391) enrols treatment-naïve adult SOT recipients with CD20-positive PTLD. Key exclusion criteria are CNS involvement, ECOG > 2, pregnancy, and severe organ dysfunction or severe, active infection. Treatment consists of rituximab (1400 mg SC; first application 375 mg/m2 IV) on days 1, 8, 15 and 22. After restaging, pts in CR as well as those in PR with ≤ 2 IPI risk factors at diagnosis (low-risk group) continue with four three-weekly courses of rituximab. Most other pts (high-risk group) receive 4 cycles of R-CHOP-21, while thoracic SOT recipients who progress under rituximab (very-high-risk group) receive six cycles of alternating R-CHOP-21 and R-DHAOx. The primary endpoint (event-free survival in the low-risk group) is not analyzed here. Secondary endpoints presented here are response and overall response (ORR) by computed tomography, overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP) and treatment-related mortality (TRM) overall and by risk group. Results: 40 pts were recruited at 12 centers (2015 – 2019). 21/40 were kidney, 11 lung, 4 liver, 3 heart, and 1 liver/kidney transplant recipients. Median age was 54 years. 38/40 PTLD were monomorphic and 15/40 EBV-associated. 38 pts were evaluated for response at interim staging: 13 were allocated to the low-risk, 17 to the high-risk and 8 to the very-high-risk group. ORR was 28/30 (93 %, CR: 16/30 [53 %]). With a median follow-up of 1.9 years, the 1-year/3-year Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates of TTP and OS in the intention-to-treat population (40 pts) were 85 %/80 % and 70 %/70 %, respectively. In the low-risk group, the 2-year KM estimate of OS was 100 %. The frequency of infections (all grades) was 50 %, and TRM occurred in 3/40 pts (8 %). Conclusions: One third of enrolled pts were treated in the low-risk group and the recruitment goal for evaluation of the primary endpoint will likely be reached. Interim efficacy and toxicity data with rituximab SC and modified risk-stratification are encouraging despite the inclusion of 35 % thoracic SOT recipients. Clinical trial information: NCT02042391 .

Objective Assessment of Pulmonary Embolism Can Be Deferred without Increased Risk.

Blood ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 1628-1628
Author(s):  
Sergio Siragusa ◽  
Alessandra Malato ◽  
Antonino Giarratano ◽  
Francesco Falaschi ◽  
Fernando Porro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Diagnostic Imaging ◽  
Median Time ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk

Abstract Background. Management of patients with suspected Pulmonary Embolism (PE) is problematic if diagnostic imaging is not available. Pretest Clinical Probability (PCP) and D-dimer (D-d) assessment were shown to be useful to identify those high risk patients for whom empirical, protective anticoagulation is indicated (Siragusa S et al. Arch Intern Med2004;164:2477–82). Objective of the study. In consecutive patients with suspected PE, we evaluated whether PCP and D-d assessment, together with the use of low molecular weight heparins (LMWHs), allow objective appraisal of PE to be deferred for up to 72 hours. Methods. In case of deferment of diagnostic imaging for PE, patients identified at high-risk (those with high PCP and those with moderate PCP and a positive D-d), received a protective full-dose treatment of LMWH; the remaining patients were discharged without anticoagulants. All patients were scheduled to undergo objective tests for PE (ventilation/perfusion lung scanning or computed tomography lung scan) within 72 hours from the index visit (figure). Standard antithrombotic therapy was then administered when diagnostic tests confirmed Venous ThromboEmbolism (VTE). Results. 336 patients with suspected PE were included in this study. The prevalence of VTE was 6.1% (95% CI 2.7–9.3) in the “low-risk group” and 50.4% (95% CI 41.7–59.1) in the “high-risk group”. In total, VTE was confirmed in 76 (22.6%) of 336 patients (95% CI 18.2–27). Patients’ characteristics, median time for deferral test and for LMWH administration are listed in table 1. Events at the short-term (72 hours) and long-term follow-up are listed in table 2. None of the patients had major bleeding events during the follow-ups. Conclusions. When objective diagnostic assessment of PE is not immediately available, management of symptomatic PE patients can prove highly unsatisfactory. This study demonstrates that a simple and reproducible approach allows a safe deferral of diagnostic imaging for PE for up to 72 hours. patients’ characteristics Baseline features Low risk group (n. 211) High-risk group (n. 125) p value n.s.: not significant Age in years (range) 59.3 (22–91) 60.3 (23–91) n.s. Sex (F/M) 98/113 59/66 n.s. Time since onset of symptoms (days) 1.7 1.5 n.s. Co-morbidity and 16 (7.5) 25 (19.2) 0.03 Median time of deferral test (hours) 49.5 42.5 n.s. Median time of protective anticoagulation (hours) not applicable 35.5 not applicable Outcome of Short- and Long-term FU Categories of patients (n) Events at the short-term FU Events at the long -term FU* FU indicates follow-up; CI indicates Confidence Intervals. *This refers to patients in whom Pulmonary Embolism has been previously ruled out (n. 260). “Low-risk group” (211) 0 (0%) [95% CI 1.4] 0 (0%) [95% CI 1.4] “High-risk group” (125) 1 (0.8%) [95% CI 2.3] 3 (2.4%) [95% CI 3.2] Patients clinically suspected of PE without immediate availability of diagnostic tests Patients clinically suspected of PE without immediate availability of diagnostic tests

scholarly journals Implications of the 2021 ESC Cardiovascular Risk Classification among 283,000 European Immigrants Living in a Low-Risk Region: A Population-Based Analysis in Catalonia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emili Vela ◽  
Montse Cleries ◽  
Usama Bilal ◽  
Maciej Banach ◽  
John McEvoy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Very High

IntroductionThe ESC recently classified European countries into 4 cardiovascular risk regions. However, whether Europeans from higher-risk countries living in lower-risk regions may benefit from intensive cardiovascular prevention efforts, is unknown. We described the burden of risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among European-born immigrants living in Catalonia, a low-risk region.Material and methodsRetrospective cohort study of 5.6 million adults of European origin living in Catalonia in 2019, including 282,789 European-born immigrants. We used the regionwide healthcare database and classified participants into 5 groups: low-, moderate-, high-, and very high-risk, and local-born. Age-standardized prevalence was estimated as of December 31st, 2019 and incidence was computed during 2019 among at-risk individuals.ResultsThe very high-risk was the largest immigrant group (N=136,910; 48.4%), while the high-risk group was the smallest (N=15,739; 5.6%). These two had the highest burden of coronary heart disease across all groups evaluated, in both men and women. The very high-risk group also had the highest prevalence of hypertension and obesity at young-to-middle age, and the burden of risk factors newly diagnosed during 2019 was highest in high- and very high-risk participants. The mean age at first diagnosis of risk factors and CVD was lower in these groups.ConclusionsIn Catalonia, residents born in high- and very-high-risk European countries are at increased risk of coronary heart disease and newly diagnosed risk factors. Low-risk European countries may consider tailored prevention efforts, early screening of risk factors, and adequate healthcare resource planning to better address the health needs of men and women from higher-risk countries.

Prediction of Survival in Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndrome According to WHO Classification-Based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS).

Blood ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 4617-4617
Author(s):  
Jun Ho Jang ◽  
Kihyun Kim ◽  
Chul W. Jung ◽  
Keon Woo Park
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background Based upon the classification of FAB criteria, International Prognostic Scoring System(IPSS) has been a standard prognostic model to predict survival and progression in MDS. In 2000, the WHO has formulated a new classification of myelodysplastic syndrome(MDS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of WHO classification-based prognostic scoring system(WPSS) in MDS. Patients and methods One hundred forty-nine patients who were diagnosed as having de novo MDS at the Division of Hematology-Oncology, Samsung medical center, Seoul, Korea, between Dec. 1994 and Feb. 2007, were evaluated retrospectively for clinical and hamatologic features at diagnosis, transfusion dependence, overall survival(OS), and progression to leukemia(LFS). Risk group stratifications in MDS patients were done according to IPSS and WPSS. Results 18 patients(12.1%), 93 patients (62.4%), 29 patients(29%) and 9 patients(6%) had IPSS risk scores of low, intermediate-1(Int-1), intermediate-2(Int-2) and high, respectively. According to WPSS risk scores, 8 patients(5.4%), 30 patients(20.1%), 41 patients(27.5%), 57 patients(38.3%) and 13 patients(8.7%) were classified to very low, low, intermediate, high and very high risk group, respectively. In IPSS, median OSs of low, Int-1, Int-2 and high subgroup were 65.2, 32.9, 14.3 and 9.1 months respectively (p<0.001). According to WPSS, median OSs of very low, low, intermediate, high and very high risk subgroup were not reached, 55.4, 27.4, 19.0 and 6.2 months respectively (p<0.001). Between subgroups classified according to WPSS, significant differences in OS were noted in low vs. intermediate risk group (p=0.047), in intermediate vs. high risk group (p=0.046) and in high vs. very high risk group(p=0.003) but statistically not significant difference in OS was observed between very low and low risk group (p=0.08). The mean and median OS of the lowest risk group(low risk) in IPSS are 65.33 and 55.43 months, respectively. The mean and median OS of the lowest risk group(very low risk) in WPSS are 102.8 months and not reached, respectively. Conclusion These data show that WPSS with five risk groups might provide more refined prognostic stratifications of MDS than IPSS with four risk groups. Especially, new prognostic system appears to discriminate a subset of patients with very low risk, who could have long term survival.

scholarly journals Echocardiography and EuroSCORE II for the stratification of low-gradient severe aortic stenosis and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Fan ◽  
Hong Shen ◽  
Brandon Stacey ◽  
David Zhao ◽  
Robert J. Applegate ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Severe Aortic Stenosis ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Left Ventricular Ejection ◽  
Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽  
Risk Patients

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to explore the utility of echocardiography and the EuroSCORE II in stratifying patients with low-gradient severe aortic stenosis (LG SAS) and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF ≥ 50%) with or without aortic valve intervention (AVI). The study included 323 patients with LG SAS (aortic valve area ≤ 1.0 cm2 and mean pressure gradient < 40 mmHg). Patients were divided into two groups: a high-risk group (EuroSCORE II ≥ 4%, n = 115) and a low-risk group (EuroSCORE II < 4%, n = 208). Echocardiographic and clinical characteristics were analyzed. All-cause mortality was used as a clinical outcome during mean follow-up of 2 ± 1.3 years. Two-year cumulative survival was significantly lower in the high-risk group than the low-risk patients (62.3% vs. 81.7%, p = 0.001). AVI tended to reduce mortality in the high-risk patients (70% vs. 59%; p = 0.065). It did not significantly reduce mortality in the low-risk patients (82.8% with AVI vs. 81.2%, p = 0.68). Multivariable analysis identified heart failure, renal dysfunction and stroke volume index (SVi) as independent predictors for mortality. The study suggested that individualization of AVI based on risk stratification could be considered in a patient with LG SAS and preserved LVEF.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Healthcare Workers in Germany: A Follow-Up Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4540
Author(s):  
Johannes Korth ◽  
Benjamin Wilde ◽  
Sebastian Dolff ◽  
Jasmin Frisch ◽  
Michael Jahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Igg Antibody

SARS-CoV-2 is a worldwide challenge for the medical sector. Healthcare workers (HCW) are a cohort vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection due to frequent and close contact with COVID-19 patients. However, they are also well trained and equipped with protective gear. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody status was assessed at three different time points in 450 HCW of the University Hospital Essen in Germany. HCW were stratified according to contact frequencies with COVID-19 patients in (I) a high-risk group with daily contacts with known COVID-19 patients (n = 338), (II) an intermediate-risk group with daily contacts with non-COVID-19 patients (n = 78), and (III) a low-risk group without patient contacts (n = 34). The overall seroprevalence increased from 2.2% in March–May to 4.0% in June–July to 5.1% in October–December. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG detection rate was not significantly different between the high-risk group (1.8%; 3.8%; 5.5%), the intermediate-risk group (5.1%; 6.3%; 6.1%), and the low-risk group (0%, 0%, 0%). The overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence remained low in HCW in western Germany one year after the outbreak of COVID-19 in Germany, and hygiene standards seemed to be effective in preventing patient-to-staff virus transmission.

scholarly journals Sernbo score predicts survival after intracapsular hip fracture in the elderly

2013 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
EJC Dawe ◽  
E Lindisfarne ◽  
T Singh ◽  
I McFadyen ◽  
P Stott
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Social Situation ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Intracapsular Hip Fracture ◽  
The Mean

Introduction The Sernbo score uses four factors (age, social situation, mobility and mental state) to divide patients into a high-risk and a low-risk group. This study sought to assess the use of the Sernbo score in predicting mortality after an intracapsular hip fracture. Methods A total of 259 patients with displaced intracapsular hip fractures were included in the study. Data from prospectively generated databases provided 22 descriptive variables for each patient. These included operative management, blood tests and co-mobidities. Multivariate analysis was used to identify significant predictors of mortality. Results The mean patient age was 85 years and the mean follow-up duration was 1.5 years. The one-year survival rate was 92% (±0.03) in the low-risk group and 65% (±0.046) in the high-risk group. Four variables predicted mortality: Sernbo score >15 (p=0.0023), blood creatinine (p=0.0026), ASA (American Society of Anaesthesiologists) grade >3 (p=0.0038) and non-operative treatment (p=0.0377). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the Sernbo score as the only predictor of 30-day mortality (area under curve 0.71 [0.65–0.76]). The score had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 51% for prediction of death at 30 days. Conclusions The Sernbo score identifies patients at high risk of death in the 30 days following injury. This very simple score could be used to direct extra early multidisciplinary input to high-risk patients on admission with an intracapsular hip fracture.

Abstract 2126: Twoaces (tia Work-up Asoutpatient: Assessment Of Clincal Efficacy And Safety)

Stroke ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenifer Green ◽  
Connie Wolford ◽  
Jean Marc Olivot ◽  
Gregory Albers ◽  
James Castle
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Stroke Rate ◽  
Significant Stenosis ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Low Rate ◽  
Arterial Imaging

Background: Much controversy exists as to which TIA patients need to be admitted to the hospital for evaluation and treatment and which can be sent home. One commonly used trigae tool is the ABCD 2 score (Age, presenting Blood Pressure, Clinical symptoms and Duration, and Diabetes). Although this tool gives good information for determining populations at low risk (score of 0-3) and high risk (score of 6-7) of stroke after TIA, it leaves a large moderate risk population (score of 4-5) for whom no clear triage guidance can be given. As previous studies have found large artery atherosclerosis to be a potent risk factor for stroke after TIA, we attempted to further delineate low and high risk TIA populations with the addition of non-invasive arterial imaging to the ABCD 2 score. Methods: All patients referred to the Stanford Stroke Service for possible TIA within 72 hrs of symptom onset between July 2007 and February 2010, and all patients referred to the Highland Park Stroke Service for possible TIA within 72 hrs of symptom onset after October 2009 were screened for enrollment in this observational study. Exclusion criteria included age <18 years, use of TPA at initial presentation, and symptoms lasting >24 hours. 352 patients were invited to enroll, 3 refused. Of the 349 enrolled, follow-up was obtained in 346 patients at 30 days. Patients were placed into two groups: 1) those with ABCD 2 scores of 0-3 or scores of 4-5 AND no sign of hemodynamically significant stenosis in an artery within the distribution of the TIA (Low Risk Group); and 2) those with ABCD 2 scores of 6-7 or scores of 4-5 AND a hemodynamically significant stenosis in an artery within the distribution of the TIA (High Risk Group). Non-invasive arterial imaging included CT angiogram, MR angiogram, and carotid ultrasound - all used at the discretion of the treating physician. 30 day stroke rates with 95% confidence intervals were recorded. Results: Of the 346 patients enrolled, 295 (85.3%) fell into the "Low Risk Group" based on ABCD 2 scoring and non-invasive arterial imaging. Within that group, the stroke rate at 30 days was 1.0% (3 strokes, 95% CI 0.2-3.1%). Within the "High Risk Group", the stroke rate at 30 days was 5.9% (3 strokes, 95% CI 1.4-16.5%). Within the "Low Risk Group", all 3 of the strokes occurred in patients with ABCD 2 scores of 4-5 (3/133 patients - 2.3% stroke rate with 95% CI 0.5-6.7%). The overall stroke rate was 6/346 (1.7%, 95% CI 0.7-3.8%). Conclusions: In our observational study we found that the overall 30 day stroke rate after TIA was quite low. The percentage of all TIA patients falling into the “Low Risk Group” was quite high, and these patients had a particularly low rate of stroke at 30 days. Given the high number of "Low Risk" patients and the low rate of stroke in that group at 30 days, the vast majority of TIA patients could likely be safely evaluated in an rapid outpatient setting provided that the treating physician is confident of the diagnosis.

Accuracy of the CARG chemotherapy toxicity risk prediction tool in older Indian patients with cancer.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e24023-e24023
Author(s):  
Shreya Gattani ◽  
Vanita Noronha ◽  
Anant Ramaswamy ◽  
Renita Castelino ◽  
Vandhita Nair ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Chemotherapy Toxicity ◽  
Patients With Cancer ◽  
Indian Patients ◽  
Grade 3

e24023 Background: Clinical judgement alone is inadequate in accurately predicting chemotherapy toxicity in older adult cancer patients. Hurria and colleagues developed and validated, the CARG score (range, 0–17) as a convenient and reliable tool for predicting chemotherapy toxicity in older cancer patients in America, however, its applicability in Indian patients is unknown. Methods: An observational retrospective and prospective study between 2018 and 2020 was conducted in the Department of Medical Oncology at Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India. The study was approved by the institutional ethics committee (IEC-III; Project No. 900596) and registered in the Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI/2020/04/024675). Written informed consent was obtained in the prospective part of the study. Patients aged ≥ 60 years and planned for systemic therapy were evaluated in the geriatric oncology clinic and their CARG score was calculated. Patients were stratified into low (0-4), intermediate (5-9) and high risk (10-17) based on the CARG scores. The CARG score was provided to the treating physicians, along with the results of the geriatric assessment. Chemotherapy-related toxicities were captured from the electronic medical record and graded as per the NCI CTCAE, version 4.0. Results: We assessed 130 patients, with a median age 69 years (IQR, 60 to 84); 72% patients were males. The common malignancies included gastrointestinal (52%) and lung (30%). Approximately 78% patients received polychemotherapy and 53% received full dose chemotherapy. Based on the CARG score, 28 (22%) patients belonged to low risk, 80 (61%) to intermediate risk and 22 (17%) to the high risk category. The AU-ROC of the CARG score in predicting grade 3-5 toxicities was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.51-0.71). The sensitivity and specificity of the CARG score in predicting grade 3-5 toxicities were 60.8% and 78.6%. Grade 3-5 toxicities occurred in 6/28 patients (21%) in the low risk group, compared to 62/102 patients (61%) in the intermediate /high risk group, p = 0.0002. There was also a significant difference in the time to development of grade 3-5 toxicities, which occurred at a median of 2.5 cycles (IQR, 1-3.8) in the intermediate /high risk group and at a median of 6 cycles (IQR, 3.5-8) in the low risk group, p = 0.0011. Conclusions: In older Indian patients with cancer, the CARG score reliably stratifies patients into low risk and intermediate/high risk categories, predicting both the occurrence and the time to occurrence of grade 3-5 toxicities from chemotherapy. The CARG score may aid the oncologist in estimating the risk-benefit ratio of chemotherapy. An important limitation was that we provided the CARG score to the treating oncologists prior to the start of chemotherapy, which may have resulted in alterations in the chemotherapy regimen and dose and may have impacted the CARG risk prediction model. Clinical trial information: CTRI/2020/04/024675.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound–based ultrasomics score: a potential biomarker for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after resection or ablation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Huang ◽  
Si-min Ruan ◽  
Meng-fei Xian ◽  
Ming-de Li ◽  
Mei-qing Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Early Recurrence ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Primary Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Contrast Enhanced Ultrasound ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Contrast Enhanced

Objectives: This study aimed to construct a prediction model based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) ultrasomics features and investigate its efficacy in predicting early recurrence (ER) of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection or ablation. Methods: This study retrospectively included 215 patients with primary HCC, who were divided into a developmental cohort (n = 139) and a test cohort (n = 76). Four representative images—grayscale ultrasound, arterial phase, portal venous phase and delayed phase —were extracted from each CEUS video. Ultrasomics features were extracted from tumoral and peritumoral area inside the region of interest. Logistic-regression was used to establish models, including a tumoral model, a peritumoral model and a combined model with additional clinical risk factors. The performance of the three models in predicting recurrence within 2 years was verified. Results: The combined model performed best in predicting recurrence within 2 years, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.845, while the tumoral model had an AUC of 0.810 and the peritumoral model one of 0.808. For prediction of recurrence-free survival, the 2 year cumulative recurrence rate was significant higher in the high-risk group (76.5%) than in the low-risk group (9.5%; p < 0.0001). Conclusion: These CEUS ultrasomics models, especially the combined model, had good efficacy in predicting early recurrence of HCC. The combined model has potential for individual survival assessment for HCC patients undergoing resection or ablation. Advances in knowledge: CEUS ultrasomics had high sensitivity, specificity and PPV in diagnosing early recurrence of HCC, and high efficacy in predicting early recurrence of HCC (AUC > 0.8). The combined model performed better than the tumoral ultrasomics model and peritumoral ultrasomics model in predicting recurrence within 2 years. Recurrence was more likely to occur in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group, with 2-year cumulative recurrence rates respectively 76.5% and 9.5% (p < 0.0001).

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