Probabilistic Combinatorial Model of the Epidemic for a University
The aim of the research was to identify the main causes of infection of teachers and students in a university. Two probabilistic combinatorial problems are considered analytically to determine the probabilities and rates of infection of teachers and students in a university as a result of the appearance of infected persons among the contingent of students. The mathematical apparatus of probability theory and combinatorics is used to solve the problems. For the factorials of combinations arising in the structure, the asymptotic Stirling’s formula is used. Convergent series arise in the final formulas, reflecting the multiplicity of scenarios of the probabilistic approach. Analytical formulas for the sums of series, probabilities and rates of infection of teachers and students are obtained. It is shown that the infection of teachers and students occurs through «dangerous» spatially close contacts, when a teacher and a student talk at a distance of less than 0.5 meter. It is impossible to exclude such contacts in the students’ environment during full-time study. Among teachers, there is also a less probable classroom mechanism of infection through the volume of air infected with viruses.