scholarly journals LEVEL OF FAILURE RISK BASED ON LAND TYPOLOGY OF PARTICIPANTS OF RICE FARM INSURANCE PROGRAMS IN SOUTH SUMATERA

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Dwi Kuncorojati ◽  
M. Yamin ◽  
Yunita Yunita
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Rice Field ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Data Section ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Failure Losses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Planting Season

Risk level in South Sumatra differs based on the land typology in which Buay Madang Timur District in East OKU Regency with typical irrigation rice field typology has different risk level compared to Banyuasin Regency with its tidal land typology. This research was aimed to find out risk failure in two land typologies nad losses due to its risk. The calculation of Z score was used to calculate risk level using cross data section in year 2019. Data were collected from each district with 120 AUTP farmer participants consisted of 60 samples of tidal land typology and 60 technical irrigation. Which 60 samples consisted of 52 unclaimed farmers and 8 claimed farmers. Based Z score calculation of crop failure risk, it was resulted that technical irrigation land typology in OKU Regency had 44% risk level due to rat and planthopper attack, compared to 49% tidal land typology in Banyuasin Regency that caused rat attack. Risk impact due to crop failure was then calculated using the Value at Risk (Var) method. Results showed that crop failure losses in East OKU Regency were equal to Rp. 11.304.361,- for each planting season while in Banyuasin Regency it was Rp. 12.445.273,-. Thus, the impact of crop failure risk in tidal land typology was greater than technical irrigation.

scholarly journals Preliminary Prediction of Rice Planting for Planting Season 2019, 2020, and 2021, Based Water Balance in Freshwater Swampland

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 01004
Author(s):  
Vika Mayasari ◽  
Anna Hairani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Rice Field ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rice Crop ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Science Park ◽  
Yield Rate ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Planting Season

Climate change that has occurred in recent years causes a shift at the beginning of rice planting. Rice crop failure due to flooding or drought is the main cause of the low Cropping Index in the freshwater swampland such as happened in Swampland Agro Science Park of Banjarbaru. Therefore, this study was carried out to determine the preliminary prediction of the rice planting season for planting season (MT) 2019, 2020, and 2021 based on water balance. As for what can be analyzed was the rainfall data as input compared to evapotranspiration through the Hargreaves approach. Then the output obtained in the form of net rate which used to measure the amount of rain every year. M eanwhile, the water requirement for rice was calculated during the period of growth to harvest. After that, the water balance simulation was performed from the difference in water bubbles (net yield rate) with the water needs in the rice field. Based on this water balance simulation obtained that the beginning of rice planting for MT 2019 is May IV-June IV, MT 2020 is June I-July I, and MT 2021 is June II-July II.

Decision Aids for Generating Analytical Review Alternatives: The Impact of Goal Framing and Audit-Risk Level

2002 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Mueller ◽  
John C. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Cognitive Load ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Audit Risk ◽  
Goal Framing ◽  
Analytical Review ◽  
The Impact

An auditor generating potential explanations for an unusual variance in analytical review may utilize a decision aid, which provides many explanations. However, circumstances of budgetary constraints and limited cognitive load deter an auditor from using a lengthy list of explanations in an information search. A two-way between-subjects design was created to investigate the effects of two complementary approaches to trimming down the lengthy list on the number of remaining explanations carried forward into an information search. These two approaches, which represent the same goal (reducing the list) but framed differently, are found to result in a significantly different number of remaining explanations, in both low- and high-risk audit environments. The results of the study suggest that the extent to which an auditor narrows the lengthy list of explanations is important to the implementation of decision aids in analytical review.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals Overcapacity Risk of China’s Coal Power Industry: A Comprehensive Assessment and Driving Factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1426
Author(s):  
Delu Wang ◽  
Xun Xue ◽  
Yadong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Correlation Effect ◽  
Power Industry ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Correlation Based Feature Selection ◽  
Coal Power ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The comprehensive and accurate monitoring of coal power overcapacity is the key link and an important foundation for the prevention and control of overcapacity. The previous research fails to fully consider the impact of the industry correlation effect; making it difficult to reflect the state of overcapacity accurately. In this paper; we comprehensively consider the fundamentals; supply; demand; economic and environmental performance of the coal power industry and its upstream; downstream; competitive; and complementary industries to construct an index system for assessing coal power overcapacity risk. Besides; a new evaluation model based on a correlation-based feature selection-association rules-data envelopment analysis (CFS-ARs-DEA) integrated algorithm is proposed by using a data-driven model. The results show that from 2008 to 2017; the risk of coal power overcapacity in China presented a cyclical feature of “decline-rise-decline”, and the risk level has remained high in recent years. In addition to the impact of supply and demand; the environmental benefits and fundamentals of related industries also have a significant impact on coal power overcapacity. Therefore; it is necessary to monitor and govern coal power overcapacity from the overall perspective of the industrial network, and coordinate the advancement of environmental protection and overcapacity control.

scholarly journals In the Same Boat, but not Equals: The Heterogeneous Effects of Indirect Taxation on Child Health in Punjab-Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faiz Ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Indirect Taxation ◽  
Nutrition Survey ◽  
Lower Income Group ◽  
Food Items ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe 2011 National Nutrition Survey of Pakistan revealed that 51% of the country’s population was consuming less than 2,100 calories a day. In the backdrop of rising food insecurity, hunger, and malnutrition in Pakistan, this study aims to measure the effects of indirect taxation on health outcomes of children (<5 years). More specifically, the impact of the incidence of General Sales Tax (GST) in the province of Punjab has been estimated on a child’s height and weight. The proponents of the uniform GST argue that the tax would not affect children because most food items consumed by children are exempted from the GST. However, the opponents believe that households, especially those belonging to the lower-income group, would reallocate resources away from children in the face of higher GST. To study these effects, we utilized three different waves (2007–08, 2011 & 2014) of Multiple Indicators Cluster Surveys (MICS). The results show that the tax incidence, and not the GST rate, has a significantly negative impact on children’s height-for-age Z-score (HAZ). No effect was found on the weight-for-age-z-score (WAZ). These results are robust to different specifications and exhibit considerable heterogeneity across different income groups. These findings suggest that the exemption of certain food items for children from the GST may not eliminate the negative effects of this tax on a child’s health. Thus, our study raises concerns about the long term welfare consequences of GST.

OPTIMAL REINSURANCE FROM THE VIEWPOINTS OF BOTH AN INSURER AND A REINSURER UNDER THE CVAR RISK MEASURE AND VAJDA CONDITION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Yanhong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Convex Combination ◽  
Weighting Factor ◽  
Loss Functions ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Optimal Reinsurance ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT In this paper, we study the optimal reinsurance contracts that minimize the convex combination of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of the insurer’s loss and the reinsurer’s loss over the class of ceded loss functions such that the retained loss function is increasing and the ceded loss function satisfies Vajda condition. Among a general class of reinsurance premium principles that satisfy the properties of risk loading and convex order preserving, the optimal solutions are obtained. Our results show that the optimal ceded loss functions are in the form of five interconnected segments for general reinsurance premium principles, and they can be further simplified to four interconnected segments if more properties are added to reinsurance premium principles. Finally, we derive optimal parameters for the expected value premium principle and give a numerical study to analyze the impact of the weighting factor on the optimal reinsurance.

Farmers’ Capacity and Rice Productivity in Climate Change Adaptation in Central Lampung Regency, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 346-353
Author(s):  
Indah Listiana ◽  
Indah Nurmayasari ◽  
Rinaldi Bursan ◽  
Muher Sukmayanto ◽  
Helvi Yanfika ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Performance Level ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
Spearman Rank Correlation Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is an extreme natural change condition due to global warming that cannot be avoided, and will have a broad impact on various aspects of life, including the agricultural sector. The impact of climate change that occurs in the agricultural sector, namely flood and drought that cause plants to crop failure , is becoming greater, causing significant reduction in agricultural production, especially rice, requiring that farmers have the ability to adapt to climate change. The purposes of this study are to analyze the relationship between the performance level of agricultural extension workers and the capacity level of farmers in regard to climate change adaptation, and to analyze the relationship between the level of farmer capacity in climate change adaptation and rice productivity. The research was conducted in Central Lampung Regency in 2019 using a total of 100 rice farmers. The data analysis method used is Spearman rank correlation analysis. The results show that the performance level of agricultural instructors is significantly related to the level of knowledge capacity, attitude, and skills of farmers in climate change adaptation. Knowledge capacity, attitude, and skills of farmers in climate change adaptation are significantly related to rice productivity.

The impact of credit risk on the financial stability of commercial banks in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-80
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quoc Anh ◽  
Duong Nguyen Thanh Phuong
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Score Analysis ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of credit risk on the financial stability of Vietnamese commercial banks. The paper uses the Z-score to proxy the financial stability of banks. We use the data of 27 Vietnamese commercial banks on BankScope, during 2010 - 2019. The paper applied a dynamic panel data approach; the selected method is the difference GMM (DGMM). The key question discussed is which factor impacts on Z-score. Analysis results show the negative effect of non-performing loans on the financial stability of banks. When commercial banks have higher non-performing loans, the lower the financial stability is. Additionally, bank-specific variables such as equity on asset ratio, the return on equity, the size of the bank and set of macroeconomic variables affect the bank’s financial stability. Based on the analysis results, we imply relevant policies for the State Bank of Vietnam and commercial banks.

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