scholarly journals Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2(SI)) ◽  
pp. 0477
Author(s):  
Hadisuwito Et al.
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Several Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Training

Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

scholarly journals Mind the gap. Stakeholders perspective on resilience building in the City of

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Audrey O. Esteban ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Rockefeller Foundation ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Environmental Threats ◽  
Disaster Experience ◽  
Mutual Adaptation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Many ◽  
The City

In 2016 the City of Rotterdam joined the 100 Resilient Cities of The Rockefeller Foundation. The 100 Resilient Cities is an initiative emphasizing the need for cities to build resilience. Rotterdam was one of the first to heed the call of the 100 Resilient Cities highlighting the city’s position as a frontrunner in addressing climate adaptive urban planning projects and innovative means in dealing with flood risks and vulnerabilities. Learning from the great North Sea flood of 1953 disaster experience, the Netherlands ensured strong preventive measures making the country safe from flooding. The City of Rotterdam benefits from these strong preventive measures as this safeguards the city and the biggest and most important port in Europe from any disaster. However, these strong preventive measure have also muted the concept of resilience on the stakeholders. This is also further weighed down by the many different initiatives present in the city. The paper seeks to investigate the institutional and non-institutional actors perspective on resilience and the environmental threats in the City of Rotterdam. The research assumes that knowledge and experience on Rotterdam’s environmental vulnerabilities and threats lead to better collaboration between and among stakeholders in making the city resilient. This knowledge and experience also leads to the mutual adaptation of roles between the government and other stakeholders of the city such as the citizens, businesses, academe, civil society organizations among others. The research explores questions related to stakeholders perception on risk and vulnerability of the city to disasters, disaster awareness and concern, and their definition of resilience and a resilient city.

scholarly journals The Fear of Covid-19 among Malaysian Youths

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Mohd Nazrul Bin Azizi ◽  
Dr. Nurul Syuhaida binti Abdul Razak
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Health Level ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The strike of Covid-19 has affected the mental health level among people. Therefore, this study aims to discover the level of fear towards the spread of this disease among Malaysians. A set of questionnaire was developed and distributed among 3000 respondents consisted of youths aged 15-35 years old. The data was analysed based on the percentage and illustrated in the form of pie charts. The research found that majority of the respondents agreed that the spread of Covid-19 has triggered their fear. Other related items also were measured including the reactions when the fear strikes as well as the need to gain more knowledge regarding the spread of Covid-19, such as the latest red zone areas and the preventive measures. The findings of this research will let the people aware of the impact of Covid-19 towards mental health and help the government to identify people’s knowledge, especially on the preventive measure. Therefore, more strategies can be designed to help people save themselves from getting infected.

scholarly journals STRATEGI PENCEGAHAN KEBAKARAN LAHAN BERBASIS MASYARAKAT DESA KUALA TERUSAN KECAMATAN PANGKALAN KERINCI KABUPATEN PELALAWAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Evy Marta Meranty Folia ◽  
Zulfan Saam ◽  
Trisla Warningsih
Keyword(s):  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Key Informants ◽  
Legal Sanctions ◽  
Farmer Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Village ◽  
And Training

The formulation of a strategy to prevent community-based land fires in Kuala Terusan Village was carried out in October 2018 to October 2019. The research method is survey method. Key informants included the Head of the Pelalawan District Disaster Management Agency, the Head of the Fire Regulations of the Pelalawan Regency Plantation Office, the Head of the Kuala Terusan Village, Community Leaders, the Chair of the Tuah Negeri farmer group and the Head of the Tanjung Mandiri farmer group. Key informants can increase if met by other parties who also play a role in preventing land fires in Kuala Terusan Village. Data analysis using SWOT analysis. The results of the formulation of the strategy are to increase community knowledge and attitudes towards preventing land fires through socialization, guidance and training, increasing community participation through institutional strengthening and providing incentives by the government to the Fire Concerned Farmers Group and Fire Concerned Communities, utilizing government resources and community capacity villages as a preventive measure for preventing land fires through building reservoirs, building canal blocks and providing infrastructure for preventing land fires for farmer groups, increasing collaboration between the government and the community through the establishment of a Patrol Team in efforts to prevent land fires and conducting routine patrol / supervision of migrants to the village which has the potential to cause a fire, maintain local wisdom of land clearing or preparation by not burning through the provision of assistance with tools and social assistance and issuing village regulations to improve ur rights, responsibilities and criminal provisions (legal sanctions) for communities in land management.

scholarly journals Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice towards Dengue: A Study among the Inhabitants of Malibagh of Dhaka city, Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nowshin Sharmila ◽  
Shah Ehsan Habib
Keyword(s):  
Positive Attitude ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Knowledge Score ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
The Government

Background: Dengue remains a major public health challenge causing death among many people in Bangladesh. The magnitude of dengue-related illness and death has significantly increased over recent years. Study was conducted to assess the level of knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to Dengue fever. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among a total of 193 males and females who consented to participate in the study. Respondents were included purposively from selected areas in Malibagh an area classified as a stable dengue-prone region of the capital city. The survey was carried out by face-to-face interview using a pre-tested standardized and structured questionnaire. Results: The results reveal that dengue infection occurred in 20.2% of residents. Only 27.5% had a good knowledge score (8 out of 11 items), and 83.9% had a positive attitude, while 34.2% had a good compliance practice.  Knowledge was significantly associated with education, income, and age (p < 0.05). Misconceptions existed about the transmission of dengue – more than one-third (36.8%) reported that the Aedes aegypti mosquito could only breed in clean water, and 32.1% were aware of the biting time of the mosquito. Most participants (55.4%) strongly agreed that dengue is a serious illness, and over half (65.3%) reported that it could be prevented with coverage of vector control interventions. The majority (64.2%) used mosquito nets as a preventive measure, while over one-third (35.2%) reported they discarded waste, containers, and non-used bottles across their yards that hold water. Although the respondents had quite positive attitude of preventive measures regarding dengue (83.9%), a sizeable number (34.2%) did not put this attitude into practice. Conclusion: Poorly planned urbanization combined with an explosive urban population in the capital city has brought the mosquito and the human host into close proximity. The government should launch health education programs on dengue prevention to educate the community members, addressing misconceptions about their preventive measures and on how they could eliminate the risk factors related to practices.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice towards Dengue: A Study among the Inhabitants of Malibagh of Dhaka city, Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nowshin Sharmila ◽  
Shah Ehsan Habib
Keyword(s):  
Positive Attitude ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Knowledge Score ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
The Government

Background: Dengue remains a major public health challenge causing death among many people in Bangladesh. The magnitude of dengue-related illness and death has significantly increased over recent years. Study was conducted to assess the level of knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to Dengue fever. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among a total of 193 males and females who consented to participate in the study. Respondents were included purposively from selected areas in Malibagh an area classified as a stable dengue-prone region of the capital city. The survey was carried out by face-to-face interview using a pre-tested standardized and structured questionnaire. Results: The results reveal that dengue infection occurred in 20.2% of residents. Only 27.5% had a good knowledge score (8 out of 11 items), and 83.9% had a positive attitude, while 34.2% had a good compliance practice.  Knowledge was significantly associated with education, income, and age (p < 0.05). Misconceptions existed about the transmission of dengue – more than one-third (36.8%) reported that the Aedes aegypti mosquito could only breed in clean water, and 32.1% were aware of the biting time of the mosquito. Most participants (55.4%) strongly agreed that dengue is a serious illness, and over half (65.3%) reported that it could be prevented with coverage of vector control interventions. The majority (64.2%) used mosquito nets as a preventive measure, while over one-third (35.2%) reported they discarded waste, containers, and non-used bottles across their yards that hold water. Although the respondents had quite positive attitude of preventive measures regarding dengue (83.9%), a sizeable number (34.2%) did not put this attitude into practice. Conclusion: Poorly planned urbanization combined with an explosive urban population in the capital city has brought the mosquito and the human host into close proximity. The government should launch health education programs on dengue prevention to educate the community members, addressing misconceptions about their preventive measures and on how they could eliminate the risk factors related to practices.

scholarly journals Knowledge, Self-Efficacy, and Preventive Behavior of COVID-19 Outbreak Among Community in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110125
Author(s):  
Normaliza Ab Malik ◽  
Rusyda Helma Mohd ◽  
Nor Ba’yah Abdul Kadir
Keyword(s):  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
The Government ◽  
Second Wave

This study aimed to assess the knowledge, self-efficacy, and preventive behaviors against coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia. A cross-sectional study was conducted during the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak using an online self-administered questionnaire. A high percentage of the respondents had high knowledge and perceived self-efficacy scores. Most of them performed the government-recommended preventive measure such as hand washing for 20 seconds, wearing a face mask, use of hand disinfectant, avoid touching eyes, nose, and mouth, cover mouth when coughing, staying home when sick, and not travelling abroad, as these are effective preventive measures to prevent the spread of the disease. However, less than half of the participants believed social distancing, self-quarantine, and avoiding crowded places were effective preventive measures. Enhancing social distancing along with other preventive measures help prevent the spread of COVID-19 transmission.

scholarly journals Potential influence of meteorological variables on forest fire risk in Serbia during the period 2000-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 414-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Tošić ◽  
D. Mladjan ◽  
M. B. Gavrilov ◽  
S. Živanović ◽  
M. G. Radaković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Forest Fire Risk

Abstract To examine potential relationships between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia, daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data for 15 meteorological stations across Serbia were used to construct fire indices. The daily values of the Ångström and Nesterov indices were calculated for the period 2000–2017. A high number of forest fires occurred in 2007 and 2012 in Serbia, during a period of extremely high air temperatures in 2007, followed by the longest heat wave and the worst drought in 2012. In order to identify the ideal weather conditions for fire break outs, different combinations of input variables, e.g., meteorological variables (mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed), fire danger indices or a combination of both, for the Belgrade area during the period 1986–2017, were tested. It was found that using relative humidity or precipitation as a predictor only generates a satisfactory model for forecasting of number of forest fires.

HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT AND FIRE RELATIONSHIP

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzviatka Karagiozova ◽  
◽  
Plamen Ninov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
River Network ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Natural Event ◽  
Hydrologic Index

Drought can be defined in meteorological terms or in relative terms with respect to hydrology and ecosystems. Meteorological drought is not a necessary or a sufficient condition for fire, because fires burn during conditions of normal seasonal aridity. Drought occurs without wildfires in the absence of ignitions. However, when drought occurs, both live and dead fuels can dry out and become more flammable. Hydrologic drought as natural event is the result of long-lasting rainfall in the catchment area leading to the gradual depletion of water resources in the river network and the occurrence of a drought. Typically, hydrological drought is recorded as a river runoff below acceptable critical value. The authors explore the relationship between hydrological drought and forest fires. They present projections of fire-related drought indicators: the hydrologic indicator 7Q10 (the lowest 7-day average flow that occurs on average once every 10 years). The implementation of the hydrological drought as an approach for fire risk assessment has just started in Bulgaria. For this purpose, the assessment of the feasibility of using the hydrological 7Q10 drought index as a fire hazard indicator in real time is based on archive information on the variation of hydrological characteristics in the river network before and during an actual fire in an accepted pilot catchment. The Hydrologic Index 7Q10 for the pilot catchment of the Struma River was determined according to the rules for the last 15 years (2003-2017) using the daily water flows from all hydrometric stations The results of the presented study confirm the possibility of using the hydrological 7Q10 drought index to assess the risk of real-time fires by information on runoff from operational hydrological stations. One of the largest fires in the Struma River in 2017 occurred in an area identified as a fire on a highly hazard area according to the hydrological drought index 7Q10.

Strategi Penyelenggaraan Diklat Dan Ujian Sertifikasi Keahlian Pengadaan Barang/ Jasa Pemerintah Di Lingkungan Pemerintah Kabupaten Magelang

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-106
Author(s):  
Wiharyanto Wiharyanto
Keyword(s):  
Education And Training ◽  
Test System ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Quality Of Education ◽  
Alternative Formulation ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Certification Exams ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Training

The study aims to analyze about the low graduation and certification exam training participants of the procurement of goods / services of the government and its contributing factors, and formulate a strategy of education and training and skills certification exams procurement of goods / services of the government. Collecting data using the method of study documentation, interviews, and questionnaires. Is the official source of information on the structural and functional Regional Employment Board, as well as the participants of the training and skills certification exams procurement of goods / services of the government in Magelang regency government environment. Analysis using 4 quadrant SWOT analysis, to determine the issue or strategic factors in improving the quality of education and training and skills certification exams procurement of government goods / services within the Government of Magelang regency. The results show organizer position is in quadrant I, which is supporting the growth strategy, with 3 alternative formulation strategies that improve the quality of education and training and skills certification exams procurement of government goods / services, and conducts certification examination of the procurement of government goods / services with computer assisted test system (CAT). Based on the research recommendations formulated advice to the organizing committee, namely: of prospective participants of the training and skills certification exams procurement of goods / services the government should consider the motivation of civil servants, is examinees who have attended training in the same period of the year, the need for simulation procurement of goods / services significantly, an additional allocation of training time, giving sanction to civil servants who have not passed the exam, the provision of adequate classroom space with the number of participants of each class are proportional, as well as explore the evaluation of education and training and skills certification exams procurement of goods / services for Government of participants.

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