scholarly journals Development and Initial Validation of a Novel Prognostic Model in Adult Secondary Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis Patients: Experience From a Single-center Retrospective Study

Author(s):  
Dongguang Wang ◽  
Xiang Tong ◽  
Lian Wang ◽  
Wentao Zhang ◽  
Shijie Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives: To describe the prognostic factors of adult patients diagnosed with secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), a rare disease caused by excessive immune activation and uncontrolled cytokine storm, and to establish and initially validate the predictive value of a prognostic model.Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 204 adult secondary HLH patients from January 2010 to December 2018 (the development cohort, n=161) and January 2019 to December 2020 (the validation cohort, n=43). All patients met ≥5 HLH-2004 criteria. Prognostic variables to death within three months at diagnosis were selected by logistic regression models, and performance of the predictive model was assessed in development and validation cohort, respectively.Results: Of all patients, malignancies were the most common trigger, accounting for 61.3%. Patients with poor prognosis showed lower hemoglobin (P<0.001), platelets (P<0.001), albumin (P=0.007) and fibrinogen (P=0.002), and higher levels of total bilirubin (P=0.007), LDH (P=0.033), BUN (P=0.006), and TG (P=0.015). Furthermore, patients with poor prognosis had a higher ISTH score (P<0.001). In the development cohort, a predictive model was established based on four variables (splenomegaly, hemoglobin, LDH and ISTH score) recognized by the multivariate logistic regression, with the cut-off value of 0.277 reaching a sensitivity of 87.7%, specificity of 49.0% and AUC of 0.731 (95%CI 0.651-0.810, P<0.001). Besides, the model could perform well in the validation cohort, with a sensitivity of 53.8%, specificity of 40.0% and accuracy of 44.2%.Conclusions: Our predictive model provides a possibility of forecasting the prognosis of adult patients within three months at diagnosis of secondary HLH, while more large sample, multicenter, randomized controlled clinical research are needed to confirm it.

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Zhou ◽  
Jing Zhou ◽  
Zhi-Qi Wu ◽  
Hemant Goyal ◽  
Hua-Guo Xu

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
GRACIA CASTRO-LUNA ◽  
ANTONIO PÉREZ-RUEDA

Abstract Background: The diagnosis of keratoconus in the early stages of the disease is necessary to initiate an early treatment of keratoconus. Furthermore to avoid possible refractive surgery that could produce ectasias. This study aims to describe the topographic, pachymetric and aberrometry characteristics in patients with keratoconus, subclinical keratoconus and normal corneas. Additionally to propose a diagnostic model of subclinical keratoconus based in binary logistic regression models Methods: The design was a cross-sectional study. It included 205 eyes from 205 patients distributed in 82 normal corneas, 40 subclinical keratoconus and 83 established keratoconus The rotary Scheimpflug camera (Pentacam® type) analyzed the topographic, pachymetric and aberrometry variables. It performed a descriptive and bivariate analysis of the recorded data. A diagnostic and predictive model of subclinical keratoconus was calculated with the statistically significant variables Results: Statistically significant differences were observed when comparing normal corneas with subclinical keratoconus/ in variables of the vertical asymmetry to 90º and the central corneal thickness. The binary logistic regression model included the minimal corneal thickness, the anterior coma to 90º and posterior coma to 90º. The model properly diagnosed 92% of cases Conclusions: The differential diagnosis between normal cases and subclinical keratoconus depends on the mínimum corneal thickness, the anterior coma to 90º and the posterior coma to 90º.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueping Ke ◽  
Zhen Fu ◽  
Jingjing Yang ◽  
Shijin Yu ◽  
Tingyuan Yan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Increasing evidence has suggested that RNA binding protein (RBP) dysregulation plays an important part in tumorigenesis. Here, we sought to explore the potential molecular functions and clinical significance of RBP and develop diagnostic and prognostic signatures based on RBP in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods: The Limma package was applied to identify the differently expressed RBPs between HNSCC and normal samples with |log2 fold change (FC)|≥1 and false discovery rate (FDR)<0.05. the immunohistochemistry images from the Human Protein Atlas database The diagnostic signature based on RBP was built by LASSO-logistic regression and random forest and the prognostic signature based on RBP was constructed by LASSO and stepwise Cox regression analysis in training cohort and validated in validation cohort. All these analyses were performed using the R software.Results: A total of 84 aberrantly expressed RBPs were obtained, comprising 41 up-regulated and 43 down-regulated RBPs. Seven RBP genes (CPEB3, PDCD4, ENDOU, PARP12, DNMT3B, IGF2BP1, EXO1) were identified as diagnostic related hub gene and were used to establish a diagnostic RBP signature risk score (DRBPS) model by the coefficients in LASSO-logistic regression analysis and shown high specificity and sensitivity in the training (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.998), and in all validation cohorts (AUC > 0.95 for all). Similarly, seven RBP genes (MKRN3, ZC3H12D, EIF5A2, AFF3, SIDT1, RBM24 and NR0B1) were identified as prognosis associated hub genes by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and stepwise multiple Cox regression analyses and were used to construct the prognostic model named as PRBPS. The area under the curve of the time-dependent receiver operator characteristic curve of the prognostic model were 0.664 at 3 years and 0.635 at 5 years in training cohort and 0.720, 0.777 in the validation cohort, showing a favorable predictive effificacy for prognosis in HNSCC.Conclusions: Our results demonstrate the values of consideration of RBP in the diagnosis and prognosis for HNSCC and provide a novel insights to understand potential role of dysregulated RBP in HNSCC.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 5710-5710
Author(s):  
Dhvani Thakker ◽  
Charles Yun ◽  
Adam Goldrich ◽  
Helzner Elizabeth ◽  
Daniel Fein ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Multiple Myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematologic malignancy in the United States. African Americans have among the highest risks of MM and MGUS with several distinct features compared to existing literature. Furthermore, the prevalence of MM is even higher in the Afro-Caribbean population. Cytogenetic and molecular genetic abnormalities predict outcome in patients with MM. Hyperdiploid MM (H-MM) generally has a better prognosis than nonhyperdiploid MM (NH-MM). In addition, patients with additional chromosome 1 abnormalities, loss of chromosome 13, translocation t(14;16) and t(4;14) tend to have a worse survival while patients with translocations t(11;14) are associated with improved survival. In our patient population, the most common cytogenetic abnormalities and their effect on survival remain unknown. Objective: This study was performed to establish a profile of Afro-Caribbean patients with newly diagnosed Multiple Myeloma in order to gain further insight into unique cytogenetic abnormalities and their effects on survival. Methods: Patients with Multiple Myeloma at Kings County Hospital Center and University Hospital at Brooklyn from 2000-2013 were identified by our tumor registries (n=311). We included all the newly diagnosed patients from 2000-2013 who underwent a bone marrow biopsy and conventional cytogenetic by chromosome banding and FISH (n= 173). Patients who did not have a cytogenetic analysis were excluded. Data was collected at the time of initial presentation to include demographics and cytogenetic abnormalities. Survival data was obtained from Social Security Death Index. Differences in frequency of each cytogenetic abnormality by mortality status were examined using Chi-Square or Fisher’s Exact Tests. Two sets of age-adjusted logistic regression models were used to examine potential cytogenetic correlates of both poor (less than two years) and good (4 years or more) survival. Data analysis was performed using SPSS Advanced Statistics. Results: The median age at the time of diagnosis was 65 (Range 36-90). Chromosome banding and FISH showed abnormal cytogenetics in 46% of our patients (n=79). These patients were also found to have multiple abnormal clones. NH-MM was found in 24% (n=19) and H-MM was found in 39% (n=31) of the 79 patients. The most commonly affected abnormalities were trisomiesof odd-numbered chromosomes; +1 (47%), +3 (19%), +5 (21%), +7 (24%), +9 (47%), +11 (42%), +15 (44%), +17 (9%) and +19 (29%). Thirty five percent of 173 patients have expired (n=60). The median survival in the deceased patients was 6.2 years (Range 0.34-12.9). When we examined all patients who lived greater than four years post-diagnosis (n=152), we found significant abnormalities including +5 (p=0.052), NH-MM (p=0.009) and t(11;14) (p=0.03) (See Table 1). Indicators of poor prognosis including 1q gain (p=0.13), loss of chromosome 13 (p=0.21) and del17 (p=0.08) were not significant. In patients who are living, 19% (n=29) have not yet reached the four-year post-diagnosis survival. Less than ten percent underwent autologous stem cell transplantation. Excludes patients who lived less than 3 months post diagnosis August 5 2014 Table 1: Age-Adjusted Logistic Regression Models Predicting Good Survival (lived 4 years or more post-diagnosis) Chromosome abnormality ( + gain, - loss) Age-Adjusted Odds Ratio (95% CI) N=152 P-value 1+ 0.77 (0.26, 2.29) 0.63 1- 2.91 (0.58, 14.57) 0.19 3+ 1.05 (0.35, 3.17) 0.93 5+ 0.47 (0.22, 1.00) 0.052 7+ 0.39 (0.14, 1.10) 0.08 11+ 0.80 (0.36, 1.75) 0.57 14+ 2.07 (0.62, 6.91) 0.24 15+ 0.74 (0.34,1.60) 0.44 19+ 1.20 (0.46, 3.13) 0.71 X- 0.42 (0.11, 1.50) 0.18 Y- 0.40 (0.13, 1.26) 0.12 Hyperdiploidy 0.88 (0.39, 2.00) 0.88 Nonhyperdiplody 0.24 (0.08, 0.70) 0.009 t(4;14) 0.76 (0.27, 2.15) 0.60 t(11;14) 0.18 (0.04, 0.86) 0.03 Conclusion: In this group of Afro-Caribbean patients, median survival (6 years) was higher than Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data and more recent review of literature. Gain of chromosome 5 and t(11;14) are consistent with existing data for good prognosis. However, NH-MM which is usually an indicator of poor prognosis was also highly significant in the four-year post-diagnosis survival. This further supports the notion that prognostic value of cytogenetic analysis in this population requires further exploration. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Author(s):  
B. M. Fernandez-Felix ◽  
E. García-Esquinas ◽  
A. Muriel ◽  
A. Royuela ◽  
J. Zamora

Overfitting is a common problem in the development of predictive models. It leads to an optimistic estimation of apparent model performance. Internal validation using bootstrapping techniques allows one to quantify the optimism of a predictive model and provide a more realistic estimate of its performance measures. Our objective is to build an easy-to-use command, bsvalidation, aimed to perform a bootstrap internal validation of a logistic regression model.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei Meng ◽  
Limin Chen ◽  
Sheng Zhang ◽  
Xuan Dong ◽  
Wenzhe Li ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH) is a life-threatening hyperinflammatory event and a fatal complication of viral infections. Whether sHLH may also be observed in patients with a cytokine storm induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is still uncertain. We aimed to determine the incidence of sHLH in severe COVID-19 patients and evaluate the underlying risk factors. Method Four hundred fifteen severe COVID-19 adult patients were retrospectively assessed for hemophagocytosis score (HScore). A subset of 7 patients were unable to be conclusively scored due to insufficient patient data. Results In 408 patients, 41 (10.04%) had an HScore ≥169 and were characterized as “suspected sHLH positive”. Compared with patients below a HScore threshold of 98, the suspected sHLH positive group had higher D-dimer, total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, triglycerides, ferritin, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lactate dehydrogenase, creatine kinase isoenzyme, troponin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, while leukocyte, hemoglobin, platelets, lymphocyte, fibrinogen, pre-albumin, albumin levels were significantly lower (all P < 0.05). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that high ferritin (>1922.58 ng/mL), low platelets (<101 × 109/L) and high triglycerides (>2.28 mmol/L) were independent risk factors for suspected sHLH in COVID-19 patients. Importantly, COVID-19 patients that were suspected sHLH positive had significantly more multi-organ failure. Additionally, a high HScore (>98) was an independent predictor for mortality in COVID-19. Conclusions HScore should be measured as a prognostic biomarker in COVID-19 patients. In particular, it is important that HScore is assessed in patients with high ferritin, triglycerides and low platelets to improve the detection of suspected sHLH.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Pei ◽  
Guanrong Zhang ◽  
Lixin Zhou ◽  
Jiyun Liu ◽  
Gang Ma ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Although immunosuppression has been investigated in adult septic patients, early immune status remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to assess early immune status in adult patients with sepsis stratified by age and its relevance to hospital mortality. Methods: From post hoc analysis of a multicenter, randomized controlled trial, 273 patients whose levels of monocyte human leukocyte antigen-DR (mHLA-DR) were obtained within 48 hours after onset of sepsis were enrolled. All patients were divided into elderly (≥60yrs) group and non-elderly (<60yrs) group. Early immune status was evaluated by the percentage of mHLA-DR in total monocytes within 48 hours after onset of sepsis and it was classified as immunosuppression (mHLA-DR≤30%) or non-immunosuppression (>30%). Changes in immune status were assessed by the value change in mHLA-DR on day 3 compared with the first measurement. Three logistic regression models were conducted to test the associations between early immunosuppression and hospital mortality. We also did a sensitivity analysis to find out if the definition of early immune status (24 vs. 48 hours after onset of sepsis) affects the outcomes. Results: Of the 181 elderly and 92 non-elderly septic patients, 71 (39.2%) elderly and 25 (27.2%) non-elderly died in hospital. The percentage of early immunosuppression in the elderly was twice of that of the non-elderly patients (32% vs. 16%, p=0.006). Immunosuppressed elderly had higher hospital mortality than the non-immunosuppressed elderly (53.4% vs. 32.5%, p=0.009), but there was no significant difference in mortality between immunosuppresed non-elderly patients and non-immunosuppressed non-elderly patients (33.5% vs. 26.0%, p=0.541). In all of the three logistic regression models, we found that early immunosuppression was independently associated with increased hospital mortality in elderly, but not in non-elderly patients. Sensitivity analysis further confirmed the definition of early immune status did not affect the outcomes. In addition, immune status improvement on day 3 was associated with reduced hospital mortality in both elderly and non-elderly patients. Conclusion: In adult patients with sepsis, the elderly were more susceptible to early immunosuppression after onset of sepsis. Early immunosuppression was independently associated with poor prognosis in elderly patients. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00711620 , 9 July 2008, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00711620


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