Development of water scenarios for large lakes in Europe: the case of Lake Peipsi

Qualitative or quantitative description of the future by developing scenarios is a key method when taking a long-term view, e.g., up to 2050. Previously the time frames covered by the scenarios have usually been no more than 20 years. This period can be too short for achieving long-term goals when, for example, testing watershed management plans. This paper is an attempt to introduce and illustrate the potential of the Story-and-Simulation methodology and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping when drawing up qualitative and semi-quantitative scenarios and the future of Lake Peipsi, one of the largest surface water bodies in Europe. The lake is shared between Estonia and Russia and consists of three unequal parts with different natural conditions and socio-economic problems in the catchment. The scenarios developed in cooperation by the stakeholders and experts were used for assessment of the importance of the major socio-economic and political drivers on water resources and water quality in the area. The results indicate that a stakeholders' panel could provide comprehensive expertise to develop scenarios. However, a participatory scenario development is likely to produce varying results depending on the composition of the stakeholders' panel.

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Secure Data for the Future: A Risk Assessment

International Journal of Digital Curation ◽

10.2218/ijdc.v13i1.665 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 327-343

Author(s):

Bendik Bryde ◽

Roberto Gonzalez

Keyword(s):

Digital Data ◽

Digital Information ◽

Nuclear War ◽

Scenario Development ◽

Research Project ◽

Storage Media ◽

Security Challenges ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Future

The guarantee of secure and authentic future access to any digital data is a big worry to those who work with data now and those who are responsible to keep it accessible for the future. There are a wide range of threats to digital data that these people should need to take into consideration. The project PreservIA had the goal to assess the risks of using analogue 35mm film to store and preserve digital information and define its strengths and weaknesses for long-term secure preservation of all kinds of digital data. The research project was examining the application of the Piql technology to ensure the security, integrity and authenticity of the information stored on a unique storage medium. PiqlFilm has been designed for a life span of 500 years or more and the research tries to assess how well this solution could maintain the authenticity and availability of the information, independently of internal and external changes in the surrounding environment over time. The research project has been designed using a scenario-based approach and the morphological method of scenario development is used to define a set of scenarios covering the risks to the service. The scenario classes used were accident, technical error, natural disaster, crime, sabotage, espionage, terrorism, armed conflict and nuclear war. A scenario template has been included for the purpose of describing current and future scenarios. The final scenario analysis identified potential vulnerabilities. The paper shows briefly how Piql Preservation Services holistic preservation approach perform the work, defines a methodology to select the scenarios for the assessment and then studies the vulnerabilities and security challenges of the solution on those scenarios. The project also includes a comparison of other existing storage media to evaluate their robustness to the addressed scenarios in relation to Piql technology.

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Long-Term Consequences of Volunteering: Undergraduate Community Service Touches the Future

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e514992008-001 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Judy Primavera ◽

Andrew Martinez

Keyword(s):

Community Service ◽

The Future ◽

Long Term Consequences

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Hydrogeological responses in tropical mountainous springs

Memorias del I Congreso Internacional de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales ◽

10.15359/cicen.1.37 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo

Keyword(s):

Costa Rica ◽

Isotope Composition ◽

Central Valley ◽

Distribution Functions ◽

Geochemical Composition ◽

Transit Times ◽

Management Plans ◽

Best Fit ◽

Term Data

This study presents a hydrogeochemical analysis of spring responses (2013-2017) in the tropical mountainous region of the Central Valley of Costa Rica. The isotopic distribution of δ18O and δ2H in rainfall resulted in a highly significant meteoric water line: δ2H = 7.93×δ18O + 10.37 (r2=0.97). Rainfall isotope composition exhibited a strong dependent seasonality. The isotopic variation (δ18O) of two springs within the Barva aquifer was simulated using the FlowPC program to determine mean transit times (MTTs). Exponential-piston and dispersion distribution functions provided the best-fit to the observed isotopic composition at Flores and Sacramento springs, respectively. MTTs corresponded to 1.23±0.03 (Sacramento) and 1.42±0.04 (Flores) years. The greater MTT was represented by a homogeneous geochemical composition at Flores, whereas the smaller MTT at Sacramento is reflected in a more variable geochemical response. The results may be used to enhance modelling efforts in central Costa Rica, whereby scarcity of long-term data limits water resources management plans.

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DIGITALIZATION OF LABOR MIGRATION PROCESSES IN UZBEKISTAN. WORLD EXPERIENCE

Innovation in the economy ◽

10.26739/2181-9491-2020-4-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 29-39

Author(s):

Sulkhiya Gazieva ◽

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Technological Change ◽

Labor Migration ◽

Smart Phone ◽

Logic Circuits ◽

Digital Logic ◽

The Internet ◽

The Future

The future of labor market depends upon several factors, long-term innovation and the demographic developments. However, one of the main drivers of technological change in the future is digitalization and central to this development is the production and use of digital logic circuits and its derived technologies, including the computer,the smart phone and the Internet. Especially, smart automation will perhaps not cause e.g.regarding industries, occupations, skills, tasks and duties

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Der Wald-Wild-Konflikt – was kann die Forstökonomie zur Lösung beitragen? (Essay)

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2017.0181 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 168 (4) ◽

pp. 181-185

Author(s):

Marc Hanewinkel

Keyword(s):

Forest Economics ◽

Production Risk ◽

Damage Compensation ◽

Land Expectation Value ◽

Compensation Methods ◽

The Future ◽

Single Tree Selection ◽

Simplifying Assumptions ◽

Forest Enterprises

The forest-game conflict – how can forest economics contribute to solve it? (Essay) Core parameters of forest economics such as land expectation value or highest revenue show that damage caused by wild ungulates can critically influence the economic success of forest enterprises. When assessing and evaluating the damage in order to calculate damage compensation, methods are applied in Germany that look either into the past (“cost value methods”) or into the future (“expected value methods”). The manifold uncertainties related to this evaluation over long-term production periods are taken into account within a framework of conventions through strongly simplifying assumptions. Only lately, the increased production risk due to game-induced loss of species diversity is also considered. Additional aspects that should be taken into account in the future are the loss of climate-adapted species, the change of the insurance values of forest ecosystems and the impossibility of specific management systems such as single-tree selection forestry due to the influence of game. Because of high transaction costs when assessing the damage, financial compensation should only be the “ultimate measure” and a meditation between stakeholder groups with the goal to find a cooperative solution before the damage occurs should be preferred.

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The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

American Journal of Islam and Society ◽

10.35632/ajis.v20i3-4.524 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 20 (3-4) ◽

pp. 46-82

Author(s):

Fathi Malkawi

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

American Education ◽

Future Trends ◽

Muslim Community ◽

Short Term ◽

The Future ◽

Muslim Education ◽

Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

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Decision-Making With Long-Term Consequences: Temporal Discounting for Single and Multiple Outcomes in the Future.

10.21236/ada301353 ◽

1995 ◽

Author(s):

Mary K. Stevenson

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Temporal Discounting ◽

Multiple Outcomes ◽

The Future ◽

Long Term Consequences

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Future of Commodity Markets and Investments

10.1093/oso/9780190656010.003.0028 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Hunter M. Holzhauer

Keyword(s):

Supply And Demand ◽

Commodity Markets ◽

Investment Banks ◽

Algorithmic Trading ◽

Excess Supply ◽

The Future ◽

Change Concerns ◽

Global Population ◽

Regulatory Trends

This chapter begins with a breakdown of recent growth trends for the overall commodities market. However, the long-term future of the market will heavily depend on three pressing issues: excess supply, increased regulations, and algorithmic trading. The section on excess supply explores how traders are changing strategies to adjust to the current imbalance between supply and demand, especially in the steel industry, and how that imbalance might change in the future based on global population trends and climate change concerns. The next section examines several regulatory trends, including the dramatic exodus of some investment banks from certain segments of the commodities market followed by a section focusing on how algorithmic trading is influencing how commodities are traded. A discussion of potential scenarios for the commodities market follows. The chapter concludes by examining a few ways in which the market and commodity traders may both survive and even thrive in the future.

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Agritourism—A Business Reality of the Moment for Romanian Rural Area’s Sustainability

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13116313 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 6313

Author(s):

Ramona Ciolac ◽

Tiberiu Iancu ◽

Ioan Brad ◽

Tabita Adamov ◽

Nicoleta Mateoc-Sîrb

Keyword(s):

Rural Communities ◽

Distribution Channels ◽

Scientific Paper ◽

Business Owners ◽

The Future ◽

Tourism Potential ◽

The Moment ◽

Managerial Experience ◽

Over Time

The agritourism activity can be a characteristic reality of the present, considering rural area’s sustainability, being at the same time a business reality for rural entrepreneurs and a “must have” for rural communities that have tourism potential. It is a form of tourism, through which the tourist can receive a qualitative product at a reasonable price, but also a field that can ensure sustainable development over time, being at the same time environmentally friendly. The purpose of this scientific paper is to identify the aspects that make agritourism “a possible business reality of the moment”, for Romanian rural area’s sustainability. We take into account the following areas: Bran-Moieciu area—considered “the oldest” in terms of agritourism experience, and Apuseni Mountains area, with a great inclination and potential for this activity. The study conducted for these two areas is focused on several aspects: the degree of involvement in agritourism activities, considering the number of years and managerial experience, the analysis of the types of activities/experiences offered by agritourism structures, the identification of the main reasons/motivations for the orientation towards agritourism and the manner in which this field is perceived. Aspects related to the marketing-finance part of the agritourism business are also taken into account: customers, distribution channels, financial sources, shortcomings observed by agritourism business owners and possible action directions so as to improve the activity/agritourism product. Agritourism may be “a possible business reality of the moment” for the studied areas and not only, but in the future, the entrepreneur/farmer must be constantly updated because of the changing situations that appear on the market, be able to make sustainable decisions for his/her own business, which in the future will ensure its viability and obviously its long-term profitability and development, and in the same time rural area’s sustainability.

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