scholarly journals Robust Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean Alternatives to the Student-t Confidence Interval

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-15
Author(s):  
Jennifer E. V. Lloyd ◽  
Jacqui Boonstra ◽  
Barry Forer ◽  
Rush Hershler ◽  
Constance Milbrath ◽  
...  

Population-based, person-specific, longitudinal child and youth health and developmental data linkages involve connecting combinations of specially-collected data and administrative data for longitudinal population research purposes. This glossary provides definitions of key terms and concepts related to their theoretical basis, research infrastructure, research methodology, statistical analysis, and knowledge translation.

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 146-150
Author(s):  
L. A. Atramentova

Using the data obtained in a cytogenetic study as an example, we consider the typical errors that are made when performing statistical analysis. Widespread but flawed statistical analysis inevitably produces biased results and increases the likelihood of incorrect scientific conclusions. Errors occur due to not taking into account the study design and the structure of the analyzed data. The article shows how the numerical imbalance of the data set leads to a bias in the result. Using a dataset as an example, it explains how to balance the complex. It shows the advantage of presenting sample indicators with confidence intervals instead of statistical errors. Attention is drawn to the need to take into account the size of the analyzed shares when choosing a statistical method. It shows how the same data set can be analyzed in different ways depending on the purpose of the study. The algorithm of correct statistical analysis and the form of the tabular presentation of the results are described. Keywords: data structure, numerically unbalanced complex, confidence interval.


Author(s):  
Sadegh Dorri Nogoorani ◽  
Rasool Jalili

Uncertainty and its imposed risk have significant impacts on decision-making. However, both are disregarded in many trust-based applications. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware approach to explicitly take uncertainty of trust and its effects into account. Our approach consists of a trust, a confidence, and a risk model. We do not prescribe a specific trust model, and any probabilistic trust model can be empowered by our approach. The confidence model calculates the uncertainty of the trust model in the form of a confidence interval, and is independent of the inner-workings of the trust model. This interval is used by the utility-based risk model which assesses the effects of uncertainty on trust-based decisions. We evaluated our approach by a four-state HMM-based simulated trustee, and employed the Beta, HMM and evidence-based trust models. We proposed and compared different methods for calculating confidence intervals, as well as methods for determining the risk and opportunity of a trust-based interaction. The results demonstrate how our approach should be used to improve the correctness of decision-making in trust-based applications. According to the statistical analysis of the simulation results, confidence intervals can properly represent the trust value and its uncertainty, and strongly improve trust-based decisions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideya Kawasaki ◽  
Hiromi Suzuki ◽  
Masato Maekawa ◽  
Takahiko Hariyama

BACKGROUND As pathogens such as influenza virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can easily cause pandemics, rapid diagnostic tests are crucial for implementing efficient quarantine measures, providing effective treatments to patients, and preventing or containing a pandemic infection. Here, we developed the immunochromatography-NanoSuit® method, an improved immunochromatography method combined with a conventional scanning electron microscope (SEM), which enables observation of immunocomplexes labeled with a colloidal metal. OBJECTIVE A total of 197 clinical samples from patients suspected to be suffering from influenza were provided by a general hospital at the Hamamatsu University School of Medicine for examination using the Flu kit. METHODS Immunochromatography kit The ImunoAce® Flu kit (NP antigen detection), a human influenza commercial diagnosis kit, was purchased from TAUNS Laboratories, Inc. (Shizuoka, Japan). Au/Pt nanoparticles were utilized to visualize the positive lines. A total of 197 clinical samples from patients suspected to be suffering from influenza were provided by a general hospital at the Hamamatsu University School of Medicine for examination using the Flu kit. After macroscopic diagnosis using the Flu kit, the samples were stored in a biosafety box at room temperature (20-25 °C / 68 - 77 °F). The IgM detection immunochromatography kit against SARS-CoV-2 was obtained from Kurabo Industries, Ltd. (Osaka, Japan). One step rRT-PCR for influenza A rRT-PCR for influenza A was performed as described previously using Flu A universal primers. A Ct within 38.0 was considered as positive according to the CDC protocol. The primer/probe set targeted the human RNase P gene and served as an internal control for human nucleic acid as described previously. SEM image acquisition The immunochromatography kit was covered with a modified NanoSuit® solution based on previously published components (Nisshin EM Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan), placed first onto the wide stage of the specimen holder, and then placed in an Lv-SEM (TM4000Plus, Hitachi High-Technologies, Tokyo, Japan). Images were acquired using backscattered electron detectors with 10 or 15 kV at 30 Pa. Particle counting In fields containing fewer than 50 particles/field, the particles were counted manually. Otherwise, ImageJ/Fiji software was used for counting. ImageJ/Fiji uses comprehensive particle analysis algorithms that effectively count various particles. Images were then processed and counting was performed according to the protocol. Diagnosis and statistics The EM diagnosis and criteria for a positive test were defined as follows: particle numbers from 6 fields from the background area and test-line were statistically analyzed using the t-test. If there were more than 5 particles in one visual field and a significant difference (P < 0.01) was indicated by the t-test, the result was considered positive. Statistical analysis using the t-test was performed in Excel software. Statistical analysis of the assay sensitivity and specificity with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was performed using the MedCalc statistical website. The approximate line, correlation coefficient, and null hypothesis were calculated with Excel software. RESULTS Our new immunochromatography-NanoSuit® method suppresses cellulose deformity and makes it possible to easily focus and acquire high-resolution images of gold/platinum labeled immunocomplexes of viruses such as influenza A, without the need for conductive treatment as with conventional SEM. Electron microscopy (EM)-based diagnosis of influenza A exhibited 94% clinical sensitivity (29/31) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 78.58–99.21%) and 100% clinical specificity (95%CI: 97.80–100%). EM-based diagnosis was significantly more sensitive (71.2%) than macroscopic diagnosis (14.3%), especially in the lower influenza A-RNA copy number group. The detection ability of our method is comparable to that of real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. CONCLUSIONS This simple and highly sensitive quantitative analysis method involving immunochromatography can be utilized to diagnose various infections in humans and livestock, including highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19.


Genetics ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 525-535
Author(s):  
Claude M Lebreton ◽  
Peter M Visscher

AbstractSeveral nonparametric bootstrap methods are tested to obtain better confidence intervals for the quantitative trait loci (QTL) positions, i.e., with minimal width and unbiased coverage probability. Two selective resampling schemes are proposed as a means of conditioning the bootstrap on the number of genetic factors in our model inferred from the original data. The selection is based on criteria related to the estimated number of genetic factors, and only the retained bootstrapped samples will contribute a value to the empirically estimated distribution of the QTL position estimate. These schemes are compared with a nonselective scheme across a range of simple configurations of one QTL on a one-chromosome genome. In particular, the effect of the chromosome length and the relative position of the QTL are examined for a given experimental power, which determines the confidence interval size. With the test protocol used, it appears that the selective resampling schemes are either unbiased or least biased when the QTL is situated near the middle of the chromosome. When the QTL is closer to one end, the likelihood curve of its position along the chromosome becomes truncated, and the nonselective scheme then performs better inasmuch as the percentage of estimated confidence intervals that actually contain the real QTL's position is closer to expectation. The nonselective method, however, produces larger confidence intervals. Hence, we advocate use of the selective methods, regardless of the QTL position along the chromosome (to reduce confidence interval sizes), but we leave the problem open as to how the method should be altered to take into account the bias of the original estimate of the QTL's position.


2021 ◽  
pp. 239719832110340
Author(s):  
Yasser A Radwan ◽  
Reto D Kurmann ◽  
Avneek S Sandhu ◽  
Edward A El-Am ◽  
Cynthia S Crowson ◽  
...  

Objectives: To study the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of conduction and rhythm disorders in a population-based cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis versus nonsystemic sclerosis comparators. Methods: An incident cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (1980–2016) from Olmsted County, MN, was compared to age- and sex-matched nonsystemic sclerosis subjects (1:2). Electrocardiograms, Holter electrocardiograms, and a need for cardiac interventions were reviewed to determine the occurrence of any conduction or rhythm abnormalities. Results: Seventy-eight incident systemic sclerosis cases and 156 comparators were identified (mean age 56 years, 91% female). The prevalence of any conduction disorder before systemic sclerosis diagnosis compared to nonsystemic sclerosis subjects was 15% versus 7% ( p = 0.06), and any rhythm disorder was 18% versus 13% ( p = 0.33). During a median follow-up of 10.5 years in patients with systemic sclerosis and 13.0 years in nonsystemic sclerosis comparators, conduction disorders developed in 25 patients with systemic sclerosis with cumulative incidence of 20.5% (95% confidence interval: 12.4%–34.1%) versus 28 nonsystemic sclerosis patients with cumulative incidence of 10.4% (95% confidence interval: 6.2%–17.4%) (hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.48–4.45), while rhythm disorders developed in 27 patients with systemic sclerosis with cumulative incidence of 27.3% (95% confidence interval: 17.9%–41.6%) versus 43 nonsystemic sclerosis patients with cumulative incidence of 18.0% (95% confidence interval: 12.3%–26.4%) (hazard ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.00–2.64). Age, pulmonary hypertension, and smoking were identified as risk factors. Conclusion: Patients with systemic sclerosis have an increased risk of conduction and rhythm disorders both at disease onset and over time, compared to nonsystemic sclerosis patients. These findings warrant increased vigilance and screening for electrocardiogram abnormalities in systemic sclerosis patients with pulmonary hypertension.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juntae Kim ◽  
Pil-Sung Yang ◽  
Byoung-Eun Park ◽  
Tae Soo Kang ◽  
Seong-Hoon Lim ◽  
...  

AbstractDiabetes mellitus (DM) is considered an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). The excess risk in relation to the presence of proteinuria has not been well elucidated. Our aim was to determine the association between the incidence of AF and proteinuria in diabetic population. A total of 240,499 individuals aged ≥ 60 years from the Korea National Health Insurance Service-Senior cohort from 2004 to 2014 were included. 4.2% of individuals with DM and 3.7% of controls were diagnosed with AF during a median follow-up period of 7.2 years. Amongst controls (participants without proteinuria and DM), DM only, proteinuria only, and DM with proteinuria groups, the crude incidences of AF were 0.58, 0.70, 0.96, 1.24 per 100 person-years respectively. Compared with controls, the weighted risk of AF was increased by 11% (hazard ratio = 1.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–1.20, P = .001), 48% (hazard ratio = 1.48, 95% confidence interval = 1.30–1.69, P < .001), and 66% (hazard ratio = 1.66, 95% confidence interval = 1.26–2.18, P < .001) in the DM only, proteinuria only, and DM with proteinuria groups, respectively (P for trend < .001). Degree of proteinuria in diabetic patients was associated with a significantly higher rate of incident AF in dose dependent manner. Thus, assessing proteinuria by a simple urine dipstick test could provide a useful adjunct to risk assessment for AF in elderly population with DM.


2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 1431-1441 ◽  
Author(s):  
ULRIKA KREICBERGS ◽  
UNNUR VALDIMARSDÓTTIR ◽  
ERIK ONELÖV ◽  
JAN-INGE HENTER ◽  
GUNNAR STEINECK

Background. Some consider the loss of a child as the most stressful life event. When the death is caused by a malignancy, the parents are commonly exposed not only to their own loss, but also to the protracted physical and emotional suffering of the child. We investigated parental risk of anxiety and depression 4–9 years after the loss of a child owing to a malignancy.Method. In 2001, we attempted to contact all parents in Sweden who had lost a child due to a malignancy during 1992–1997. We used an anonymous postal questionnaire and utilized a control group of non-bereaved parents with a living child.Results. Participation among bereaved parents was 449/561 (80%); among non-bereaved 457/659 (69%). We found an increased risk of anxiety (relative risk 1·5, 95% confidence interval 1·1–1·9) and depression (relative risk 1·4, 95% confidence interval 1·1–1·7) among bereaved parents compared with non-bereaved. The risk of anxiety and depression was higher in the period 4–6 years after bereavement than in the 7–9 years period, during which the average excess risks approached zero. Psychological distress was overall higher among bereaved mothers and loss of a child aged 9 years or older implied an increased risk, particularly for fathers.Conclusions. Psychological morbidity in bereaved parents decreases to levels similar to those among non-bereaved parents 7–9 years after the loss. Bereaved mothers and parents who lose a child 9 years or older have on average an excess risk for long-term psychological distress.


2005 ◽  
Vol 127 (4) ◽  
pp. 280-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah D. Manring

The objective of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty associated with pump efficiency measurements and to determine reasonable confidence intervals for these data. In the past, many industrial sales and some pieces of academic research have been based upon the experimental data of pump efficiencies; yet few have questioned the accuracy of the experimental data and no one has provided a confidence interval which reflects the range of uncertainty in the measurement. In this paper, a method for calculating this confidence interval is presented and it is shown that substantially large confidence intervals exist within the testing results of a pump. Furthermore, it is recommended that these confidence intervals be included with the efficiency data whenever it is reported.


2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
NI MADE METTA ASTARI ◽  
NI LUH PUTU SUCIPTAWATI ◽  
I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA

Statistical analysis which aims to analyze a linear relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable is known as regression analysis. To estimate parameters in a regression analysis method commonly used is the Ordinary Least Square (OLS). But the assumption is often violated in the OLS, the assumption of normality due to one outlier. As a result of the presence of outliers is parameter estimators produced by the OLS will be biased. Bootstrap Residual is a bootstrap method that is applied to the residual resampling process. The results showed that the residual bootstrap method is only able to overcome the bias on the number of outliers 5% with 99% confidence intervals. The resulting parameters estimators approach the residual bootstrap values ??OLS initial allegations were also able to show that the bootstrap is an accurate prediction tool.


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