Risk in Practice

2019 ◽  
pp. 59-75
Author(s):  
Louise K. Comfort
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Adaptive Systems ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Cultural Dimension ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
Different Types ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Response Systems

This chapter examines the four different types of response systems that were identified by degree of adaptation to the problem of seismic risk. Auto-adaptive systems are those that are high on technical infrastructure, high on organizational flexibility, and high on cultural openness to new ideas and strategies of action. Operative adaptive systems are those systems that demonstrate awareness of seismic risk and a moderate degree of professional planning and preparedness to reduce risk of losses. Emergent adaptive systems are those systems that are low on technical structure but show some degree of flexibility in organizational processes and beginning openness to new information and new strategies of action in the cultural dimension. Meanwhile, nonadaptive systems are those systems unable to mobilize effective response operations independently after an extreme event, and virtually all assistance comes from external sources. In practice, initial conditions influenced the formation of response systems following earthquakes in all 12 cases, leading to different types of adaptation. The path dependence that follows from each distinctive set of initial conditions illustrates both the promise and the challenge of shaping communities that are resilient to seismic risk.

Emergent Adaptive Systems

2019 ◽  
pp. 134-175
Author(s):  
Louise K. Comfort
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Adaptive Systems ◽  
Organizational Capacity ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Earthquake Response ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Response Systems ◽  
China Earthquake ◽  
Taiwan Earthquake

This chapter reveals the findings and analysis that characterize emergent adaptive systems. Four earthquake response systems are characterized as emergent adaptive systems: the 1999 Marmara, Turkey, earthquake; the 1999 Chi Chi, Taiwan, earthquake; the 2005 Pakistan earthquake; and the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Regarding awareness of seismic risk, scientists and researchers had studied and mapped seismic risk in each case, but this knowledge was not widely transmitted to the local communities in which the earthquakes occurred, nor was it integrated into public policy and practice. Regarding technical infrastructure for communication, each of the four earthquake-affected communities had modest technical infrastructures for communication, but they were not yet widely distributed through the communities. Similarly, in each of the four earthquake response systems, some organizational capacity existed in the communities prior to the events. This capacity allowed responsible actors to mobilize resources to meet immediate needs generated by the earthquakes, but in all four cases, the local capacity was easily overwhelmed by the size, scope, and severity of the events experienced and could not be sustained by the operational system that was generated.

Probabilistic Assessment of Reliability and Risk Values by Certification Results

2020 ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Lapin ◽  
Erken S. Aldakhov ◽  
S. D. Aldakhov ◽  
A. B. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Seismic Resistance ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
First Time ◽  
Structural Solutions ◽  
Practical Recommendations

For the first time in Almaty full passport of apartment stock of multiapartment building was carried out. The structure of the housing stock was revealed with the allocation of groups of buildings according to structural solutions and assessment of their seismic resistance. Based on the results of certification, quantitative estimates of failure probability values for different types of buildings were obtained. Formulas for estimation of quantitative value of seismic risk are obtained. The number of deaths in the estimated zem-shakes was estimated. The results of the assessments will be used for practical recommendations to reduce risk and expected losses in possible earthquakes.

scholarly journals SATO–CRUTCHFIELD FORMULATION FOR SOME EVOLUTIONARY GAMES

2003 ◽  
Vol 14 (07) ◽  
pp. 963-971 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. AHMED ◽  
A. S. HEGAZI ◽  
A. S. ELGAZZAR
Keyword(s):  
Prisoner's Dilemma ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable Strategy ◽  
Prisoner’S Dilemma ◽  
Evolutionary Games ◽  
Theoretical Explanation ◽  
Battle Of The Sexes ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable ◽  
Rules Of The Game

The Sato–Crutchfield equations are analytically and numerically studied. The Sato–Crutchfield formulation corresponds to losing memory. Then the Sato–Crutchfield formulation is applied for some different types of games including hawk–dove, prisoner's dilemma and the battle of the sexes games. The Sato–Crutchfield formulation is found not to affect the evolutionarily stable strategy of the ordinary games. But choosing a strategy becomes purely random, independent of the previous experiences, initial conditions, and the rules of the game itself. The Sato–Crutchfield formulation for the prisoner's dilemma game can be considered as a theoretical explanation for the existence of cooperation in a population of defectors.

The analysis of the network structures in high tech industrial enterprises

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.N. Gorlacheva ◽  
E.M. Ivannikova ◽  
A.P. Vasilenko
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Structures ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Network Structures ◽  
Optimal Ratio ◽  
Productive Work ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Different Types ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Share Information

The relevance of information and the speed of its processing are of significant importance for high-tech industrial enterprises. To solve this problem, R&D departments are created within enterprises, but often all efforts are broken down by inefficient organizational structures. Purpose of the research– identify patterns that will ensure the most productive work with innovations. For the dissemination of new ideas in the enterprise, the role distribution of employees is more important. The impact of the ability to freely share information does not affect the results as much as the change in the ratio of different types of employees. The determined share of conservative employees (30-40% of the total number) allows us to determine the optimal ratio of employees who test innovative ideas for adequacy, in order to maximize the number of successfully accepted ideas by the team.

scholarly journals Communicating earthquake risk: mapped parameters and cartographic representation

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 359-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Gaspar-Escribano ◽  
T. Iturrioz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Graphical Representations ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Earthquake Effects ◽  
Earthquake Risk Assessment

Abstract. Earthquake risk assessment is probably the most effective tool for reducing adverse earthquake effects and for developing pre- and post-event planning actions. The related risk information (data and results) is of interest for persons with different backgrounds and interests, including scientists, emergency planners, decision makers and other stakeholders. Hence, it is important to ensure that this information is properly transferred to all persons involved in seismic risk, considering the nature of the information and the particular circumstances of the source and of the receiver of the information. Some experience-based recommendations about the parameters and the graphical representations that can be used to portray earthquake risk information to different types of audiences are presented in this work.

scholarly journals Analysis of the self-similar solutions of a generalized Burger's equation with nonlinear damping

2001 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ch. Srinivasa Rao ◽  
P. L. Sachdev ◽  
Mythily Ramaswamy
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Nonlinear Damping ◽  
Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation ◽  
The Self ◽  
Similar Reduction ◽  
Generalized Burgers Equation ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Self Similar ◽  
Parameter Ranges ◽  
Similar Solutions

The nonlinear ordinary differential equation resulting from the self-similar reduction of a generalized Burgers equation with nonlinear damping is studied in some detail. Assuming initial conditions at the origin we observe a wide variety of solutions – (positive) single hump, unbounded or those with a finite zero. The existence and nonexistence of positive bounded solutions with different types of decay (exponential or algebraic) to zero at infinity for specific parameter ranges are proved.

Fear in Bureaucracy: Comparing Public and Private Sector Workers’ Expectations of Punishment

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiwon Jung ◽  
Barry Bozeman ◽  
Monica Gaughan
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Risk Propensity ◽  
Government Employees ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Major Predictor ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Public And Private Sector ◽  
Organizational Rules

When employees fear punishment for taking initiative, organizations are likely to be less effective and, equally important, such fear extracts a human toll, often contributing to a variety of manifestations of unhappiness including diminished health. We focus on two different types of fears of punishment, fear of being punished for presenting new ideas and for bending organizational rules. Employing Mechanical Turk crowdsourcing data from 1,189 participants in the 2015 survey of National Administrative Studies Project Citizen, we test hypotheses about possible differences in fear of punishment according to sector (government vs. business), general risk propensity, views about coworkers, job clarity, gender, and whether respondents are members of an underrepresented racial or ethnic minority. Using nested robust regression models, we find that the two different types of fear of punishment are predicted by different variables. Sector has no bearing on fear of punishment for presenting new ideas but is a major predictor of differences in fear of bending the rules, with government employees being more fearful. While gender has no significant effects, being a racial minority is closely related to fear of presenting new ideas. Having a negative view of one’s fellow workers, particularly one’s supervisor, is associated with greater fear of punishment from both rule bending and presenting new ideas. Those with a clear organization mission and job clarity are less likely to be afraid of punishment for proposing innovative ideas but not necessarily for bending rules. We suggest that the results have implications for managerial practice and human resource reform.

Simulation model of supply networks development

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Fiala ◽  
Martina Kuncová
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Complex Adaptive Systems ◽  
Adaptive Systems ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Fitness Function ◽  
Network Systems ◽  
Network Growth ◽  
Fitness Value ◽  
Complex Adaptive ◽  
Fixed Structure

The paper is dedicated to network development in the network economy. The current economy needs to look not only at networks with only dynamic flows and with a fixed structure, but as a dynamic system its structure evolves and changes. Structure and behaviour dynamics of network systems can be modelled as complex adaptive systems and use agent-oriented simulation to demonstrate origin, perturbation effects, and sensitivity with regard to initial conditions. Survival of firms is associated with the value of so-called fitness function. Firms whose fitness value falls below a certain threshold will be extinguished. In this way, it is possible to partially model network growth. A simulation model in SIMUL8 is proposed.

Dynamics of Dual-Cell Series Miura-Ori Structures With Different Types of Inter-Cell Connections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Zhou ◽  
Haiping Wu ◽  
Jian Xu ◽  
Hongbin Fang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Cell Structure ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Complex Environment ◽  
Current State ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Cell Series

Abstract Origami-inspired structures and materials have shown remarkable properties and performances originating from the intricate geometries of folding. Origami folding could be a dynamic process and origami structures could possess rich dynamic characteristics under external excitations. However, the current state of dynamics of origami has mostly focused on the dynamics of a single cell. This research has performed numerical simulations on multi-stable dual-cell series Miura-Ori structures with different types of inter-cell connections based on a dynamic model that does not neglect in-plane mass. We introduce a concept of equivalent constraint stiffness k* to distinguish different types of inter-cell connections. Results of numerical simulations reveal the multi-stable dual-cell structure will exhibit a variety of complex nonlinear dynamic responses with the increasing of connection stiffness because of the deeper energy well it has. The connection stiffness has a strong effect on the steady-state dynamic responses under different excitation amplitudes and a variety of initial conditions. This effect makes us able to adjust the dynamic behaviors of dual-cell series Miura-Ori structure to our needs in a complex environment. Furthermore, the results of this research could provide us a theoretical basis for the dynamics of origami folding and serve as guidelines for designing dynamic applications of origami metastructures and metamaterials.

scholarly journals The Effects of Inequality, Density, and Heterogeneous Residential Preferences on Urban Displacement and Metropolitan Structure: An Agent-Based Model

Urban Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoff Boeing
Keyword(s):  
Path Dependence ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Urban Settlement ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Residential Preferences ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Direct Use ◽  
New Settlements

Urban displacement—when a household is forced to relocate due to conditions affecting its home or surroundings—often results from rising housing costs, particularly in wealthy, prosperous cities. However, its dynamics are complex and often difficult to understand. This paper presents an agent-based model of urban settlement, agglomeration, displacement, and sprawl. New settlements form around a spatial amenity that draws initial, poor settlers to subsist on the resource. As the settlement grows, subsequent settlers of varying income, skills, and interests are heterogeneously drawn to either the original amenity or to the emerging human agglomeration. As this agglomeration grows and densifies, land values increase, and the initial poor settlers are displaced from the spatial amenity on which they relied. Through path dependence, high-income residents remain clustered around this original amenity for which they have no direct use or interest. This toy model explores these dynamics, demonstrating a simplified mechanism of how urban displacement and gentrification can be sensitive to income inequality, density, and varied preferences for different types of amenities.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document