Rising Educational Levels Contribute to Compression of Morbidity. A Multi-State Life Table Analysis of the Netherlands 1995-2015
Objective: This paper assesses whether the future rise in educational levels of theelderly may not only increase life expectancy (LE) but also at the same timecontribute to a reduction in life expectancy with disability (LED).Methods: For each educational level, LE and LED were estimated from multi-statelife tables with a disabled and non-disabled state. Basic transition rates wereestimated from regression analysis of data of a Dutch longitudinal study. The resultsper educational level were aggregated to the total population for the years 1995,2005 and 2015.Results: In 1995, men in the highest educational level had a 0.9 years longerLE and a 5.4 years shorter LED than men in the lowest level. Differences amongwomen were larger (2.0 and 8.3 years). Due to rising educational levels between1995 and 2015, LE for the total male population would increase by 0.2 years whileLED would decrease by 0.5 years. A larger effect was observed for women(0.2 and 1.5 years).Conclusion: Rising educational levels of the elderly are likely to contribute to acompression of morbidity over the next decades, especially among women.