scholarly journals Forecasting GDP Per Capita In Bangladesh: Using Arima Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liton Chandra Voumik ◽  
Dilruba Yesmin Smrity
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Yearly Data

GDP per capita is one of the key indicators of the economic health of any country. It is often used by academicians and decision-makers to plan public and private policies. The work aims to forecast the real per capita GDP in Bangladesh. Using yearly data for Bangladesh from 1972 to 2019, the study analyzes future GDP per capita using the ARIMA technique. The ADF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the appropriate model to forecast Bangladeshi GDP per capita is ARIMA (0, 2, 1). Finally, we applied in our paper the ARIMA model (0,2,1) to forecast the GDP per capita of Bangladesh for the next decade. The future GDP per capita shows that living standards in Bangladesh will continue. Indeed, Bangladesh's economy is growing, and other poor countries must learn from Bangladesh's experiences. The study offers policy prescriptions to help policymakers for Bangladesh on how to maintain, preserve, and promote sustainable growth in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF THE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS COSTS IN SERBIA BY USING DOMINANT COSTS MODEL

Transport ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Antić ◽  
Milan Vujanić ◽  
Krsto Lipovac ◽  
Dalibor Pešić
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Crucial Importance ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Official Data

This paper presents estimation of the traffic accident costs in Serbia, based on original dominant costs model. Dominant costs model uses human capital approach and this model is developed for simple and quick calculation of the traffic accidents costs, because other simple methods as 1 million rules, are not suitable for estimation of the traffic accident costs in the countries with a low GDP per capita. Knowing the costs of traffic accidents is of crucial importance for establishing traffic safety to the level defined by the size of costs made as a consequence of unsafely. So, politicians, decision makers and stakeholders in the field of traffic safety often need quick estimation of the traffic accident costs and economic effects of the particular measures which are applied for decreasing the number and severity of traffic accidents. The estimation of the level of the traffic accidents costs in Serbia, based on the official data (from the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Serbia) about traffic accidents in Serbia for 2008 is shown in this paper and the comparison between predicted and calculated value of the traffic accident costs for 2009 is also presented.

scholarly journals The problem of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Senanu Kwasi Klutse
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

A wide range of policy-related variables have a persistent influence on economic growth. This has consistently maintained the interest of economists on the determinants of economic growth over the years. There is consensus however that for countries to grow sustainably, a lot of stall must be placed on higher savings rate as this makes it easy for such countries to grow faster because they endogenously allocate more resources to inventive activities. Due to data difficulties in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) it is nearly impossible for one to consider important variables such as accumulation of knowledge and human capital when analysing growth sustainability. Studying four lower middle-income countries in SSA – Ghana, Republic of Congo, Kenya and Lesotho – this study tests the hypothesis of sustainable growth by using a Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) model to examine the relationship between savings, investment, budget deficit and the growth variable. The results showed that savings had a significant but negative relationship with the GDP per capita (PPP). A Granger Causality test conducted showed that savings does not granger cause GDP per capita (PPP), the HDI index, deficit and investment. This leads to the conclusion that growth in these countries are not sustainable. The study recommends that policy makers focus on the savings variable if these countries will want to achieve sustainable growth.

scholarly journals ON A QUESTION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

2018 ◽  
pp. 54-57
Author(s):  
TEIMURAZ BERIDZE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Educational Standards ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Education Standards ◽  
Investment Level ◽  
Per Capita

Economic development looks at a wider range than GDP per capita. Economic development is concerned with how people are actually affected. It looks at their actual living standards and social conditions. Measures of Economic development will look at: Real income per head – GDP per capita; Levels of literacy and education standards; Levels of healthcare (e.g. number of doctors per 1.000 population); Quality and availability of housing; Levels of environmental standards; Levels of infrastructure (transport, communication); Levels of corruption; Educational standards & labor productivity; Labor mobility; Flow of foreign aid & investment; Level of savings & investment; etc.

scholarly journals SOURCES OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY AS A FACTOR OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga BUCHINSKAIA ◽  
Elena STREMOUSOVA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
New Industry ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – the purpose of the study is to define the sources and restrictions of new industry development based on the R&D -related factors of the countries studied; to show the conditions of inequality based on the existing infrastructure, which are obstacles for achieving an advantage in technology. Research methodology – the panel studies were conducted on four groups of countries divided by the level of GDP per capita. High technology exports and charges for the use of the intellectual property were used as dependent variables. Findings – as a result of the study, the factors that influenced the dependent variables in each of these groups of countries were identified. The differences in the significance of factors are shown. Research limitations – the limitations of the study are significant gaps in the time series for a number of countries. They make it impossible to use such data in the econometric model. Some indicators are taken into account relatively recently, which makes it impossible to consider long-term trends. Practical implications – the results of the research should help the country decision-makers optimize measures to develop domestic R&D and innovative production. Originality/Value – the originality of the research is the study of country sets grouped by the level of GDP per capita. The specifics of patents and trademarks influence on the innovative activity of countries with different income levels are determined.

scholarly journals Institutional regimes, long wave systemic risk and great international crisis of 2008-2012

2012 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony O’Hara
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Institutional Regimes

This paper studies the relationship between long-term growth of GDP per capita, institutional regimes of accumulation (ROA), systemic risk and the Great International Crisis of 2008-2010. The principle hypothesis behind the work is that the ROA provides a foundation for long-term growth as a type of fundamental variable, and that this growth provides a buffer against systemic risk in the sense that sustainable growth provides resources for debt provision and employment stimulation. The emergence of a viable ROA is crucial for long waves of growth which stimulate both private sector profit and public sector tax receipts which (using conventional terminology) reduce the structural deficit for both sectors. Low rates of long-term growth, therefore, provide a good indicator of the emergence of ?long wave systemic risk? (LWSR), which left such nations vulnerable to uncertainty, financial crisis and recession. The paper investigates the inability of growth for various decades to ?cover? instabilities associated with the Great Crisis, leading to high rates of LWSR, especially for European and North American nations that bore the brunt of the crisis.

THE ABSOLUTION OF HISTORY: CUBAN LIVING STANDARDS AFTER 60 YEARS OF REVOLUTIONARY RULE

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
John Devereux
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Spanish Speaking ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Economic Experiment ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Welfare Measures ◽  
The Revolution

ABSTRACT Six decades ago, Cuba initiated a momentous social and economic experiment. This paper documents the effects of the experiment on Cuban living standards. Before the revolution, Cuban income per capita was on a par with Ireland or Finland. Indeed, Cuba was one of the richest of the Spanish-speaking societies. Growth is glacially slow after the revolution as GDP per capita increased by 40 per cent between 1957 and 2017 equal to an annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent—among the lowest anywhere. To be sure, other dimensions of well-being such as education and health improved, yet broader welfare measures do not change the conclusion that the revolution impoverished Cuba relative to any plausible counter factual.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic aspects of the development of Slovak regions in the post-accession period

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (No. 8) ◽  
pp. 367-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Matejková ◽  
A. Qineti ◽  
R. Serenčéš
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Similar Development ◽  
Real Challenge ◽  
Eu Support ◽  
The Eu

The objective of this paper is the analysis of the macroeconomic aspects of regional development in the Slovak Republic. Regional development is a much frequented topic recently. In the pre-accession period, Slovak regions had the opportunity of benefiting from the pre-accession funds and competing for finances through projects and strategies. The EU support did not stop with the accession, it continues with the increasing intensity and variability at present. The real challenge is how efficiently is this support used and if it goes to the destinations where it is most needed. For the purposes of the identification of regional development tendencies, we have tried to analyze the selected macroeconomic characteristics for Slovak regions at the NUTS III level. We analyze the following indicators: GDP per capita, labor productivity, foreign direct investment, so that we can explore the situation of living standards in the regions and the determinants. We use the cluster analysis approach in order to specify and identify the regions with similar development characteristics. Based on our findings, we make some recommendations on the support and development strategies for Slovak regions.

scholarly journals MATHEMATICAL ASSESSMENT ON DYNAMICS OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA, IN ROMANIA AND EUROPEAN UNION

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-220
Author(s):  
MARILENA CARMEN UZLAU ◽  
NICOLAE MIHAILESCU ◽  
CORINA MARIA ENE ◽  
CONSTANTIN AURELIAN IONESCU ◽  
LILIANA PASCHIA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Public Order ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Definition Of

The research purpose represents the identification and mathematical definition of some models expressed by regression equations describing the GE per inhabitant according to the GDP per inhabitant. The study is customized at EU level and in seven states located in the Eastern-EU (RO, PL, GR, BG, SI, SK and HU) for the period 2009-2018. The research methodology is based on econometric modelling and testing of their viability. Relevant conclusions are also made regarding RO's position in the European Union in terms of government spending. The research provides useful information to substantiate micro and macroeconomic decisions designed to ensure a dynamic of GE’s sustainable growth on education, health, general public services, defense, public order and safety. Based on the developed econometric models, values of endogenous variables (GE per capita) can be estimated depending on the variants of predictable scenarios for the size of the GDP per capita.

scholarly journals Transitional dynamics of the saving rate and economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Markus Brueckner ◽  
Tomoo Kikuchi ◽  
George Vachadze
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
Saving Rate ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Rich Countries

Abstract We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national saving rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960–2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate of the national saving rate in poor countries (rich countries), and a higher credit-to-GDP ratio decreases the national saving rate as well as the income elasticity of the national saving rate. We develop a model with a credit constraint to explain the growth-saving relationship by the saving behavior of entrepreneurs at both the intensive and extensive margins. We further present supporting evidence for our theoretical findings by utilizing cross-country time series data of the number of new businesses registered and the corporate saving rate.

scholarly journals Is the savings-led growth hypothesis valid for Zimbabwe?

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Case Study Methodology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Per Capita

This study investigates the long run relationship between economic growth and gross domestic savings for Zimbabwe during the period 1980 to 2011. The causality relationship between savings and economic growth has been a subject of extensive debate for almost half a century now. There are currently two dominant views regarding the relationship between savings and economic growth. The first view maintains that it is the growth of savings that drives economic growth. The second view argues that it is economic growth that spurs savings expansion. Using the case study methodology, the study revealed that GDP per capita had a significant positive influence on the quantity and level of gross domestic savings and not the other way round. Policies that are targeted at boosting GDP per capita should be accelerated in order to promote long-term and sustainable growth gross domestic savings for in Zimbabwe

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