scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY BY REGIONAL SIGN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-54
Author(s):  
Kostiantyn Shaposhnykov ◽  
Yuriy Pavelko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Constant Attention ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Environmental Component

The purpose of this work is to study the development of the national economy in recent years taking into account the environmental component. It is proved that providing conditions for long-term economic growth is the primary task of macroeconomy of any country. Unstable development of the national economy in recent decades accompanied by prolonged crises, as well as a slow path of reforming all spheres of life on the way to building a democratic society with a developed market economy cause constant attention of domestic scientists to this direction. Methodology. The results of environmental protection measures are classified, based on the practical use of modern economic and mathematical methods and models. Results. It is proved that when using these methods, the results of law enforcement measures can be divided into the following groups: in the conditions of positive rates of economic development, the volumes of atmospheric emissions of pollutants and carbon dioxide had a negative dynamics. This scenario of environmental and economic efficiency is the most desirable; positive growth rates of fresh water use are inferior to GDP growth rates, the rates of waste generation and water abstraction exceed the dynamics of GDP growth. This scenario is the least acceptable, as not only environmental damage is increasing in absolute terms, but environmental performance is also deteriorating. Practical implications. The period of 2015–2018 was chosen for research as it was characterized by the resumption of gradual economic growth in most sectors of the economy after the deep crisis of 2014. The available data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2019 has not currently contained complete information on volumes anthropogenic impact. The leaders of regional development in terms of GRP growth in 2015–2018 were Volyn (+ 5.72%), Kyiv (+ 5.66%) and Zhytomyr (+ 5.00%) regions. In contrast, the most depressed regions with negative economic growth rates were Donetsk (-1.86%), Luhansk (-0.84%) and Poltava (-0.51%) regions. In the latter region, the rate of population decline exceeded the increase in labor productivity, resulting in a decrease in performance. Value/originality of the work is the analysis of trends in the national economy taking into account the environmental component, which in contrast to the existing comes from modern experience of practical use of economic and mathematical methods, which allows to develop recommendations based on quantitative estimates.

Economic Growth and Macro Variables in India: An Empirical Study

2015 ◽  
pp. 42-59
Author(s):  
Saba Ismail ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Government ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The research objective of this paper is to explore the empirical linkages between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and trade openness in India (TOP) over the period 1980 to 2013. The study reveals a positive relationship between economic growth and FDI, GFCF and TOP. This study establishes a strong unidirectional causal flow from changes in FDI, trade openness and capital formation to the economic growth rates of India. The impulse response function traces the positive influence of these macro variables on the GDP growth rates of India. The study also reveals that the volatility of GDP growth rates in India is mainly attributed to the variation in the level of GFCF and FDI. The study concludes that the FDI inflows and the size of capital formation are the main determinants of economic growth. In view of this, it is expected that the government of India should provide more policy focus on promoting FDI inflows and domestic capital formations to increase its economic growth in the long-term.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

scholarly journals Population Income as a Factor of Economic Growth in the Kyrgyz Republic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khicheza Fynchina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Composition And Structure ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
The Individual

This article examines the indicators of income of the population as the main factors of social and economic growth of the Kyrgyz Republic. In the context of a sharp decline in economic development indicators, the finances of the population are a significant factor influencing GDP growth. The analysis uses statistical and economic and mathematical methods based on the application of the methodology of economic and mathematical modeling. The analysis of the composition and structure of household income is carried out. Models of multiple and paired regressions of types of income and components of income of the population have been built. A high dependence of GDP on income from employment has been revealed. The degree of influence of particular indicators of the development of the individual entrepreneurship sector on the growth of income in terms of employment of the population of the Kyrgyz Republic is determined.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Drobyshevsky ◽  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
A. S. Kaukin ◽  
P. N. Pavlov ◽  
S. G. Sinelnikov‑Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Random Shocks ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
Further Development

The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.

scholarly journals DOES THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX DEMONSTRATE THE RESILIENCE OF COUNTRIES TO ECONOMIC CRISES?

Ekonomika ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 28-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaiva Petrylė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Economic Forum ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Global Competitiveness Index ◽  
Competitiveness Index ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The concept of a country’s competitiveness still does not have a clear and straightforward meaning and remains ambiguous. Different economists stress various aspects of the concept and use a number of different methods to evaluate how competitive a country is. This paper focuses on the Global Competitiveness Index, which is calculated by the World Economic Forum and is one of the most well-known measures of competitiveness. The World Economic Forum (2015) defines the competitiveness of a country as a “set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country” and argues that productivity “is the main long-run engine for growth, living standards and prosperity”. The definition suggests that a higher competitiveness ranking shows higher productivity of the country’s economy, which should lead to higher and more sustainable economic growth. In addition, economic growth leads to higher living standards and prosperity of the country’s citizens. In the light of the definition, the paper forms the hypothesis that if a country is ranked to be more competitive (i.e., its Global Competitiveness Index is higher), it should have greater resilience to an economic crisis than less competitive countries. In other words, more competitive countries should have higher and more sustainable economic growth rates than the less competitive countries. In order to check this hypothesis, the paper uses the graphical analysis method and examines the relationship between the Global Competitiveness Index and the economic growth of countries during the period of 2006-2015. The research findings show that there is a weak or no relationship between the Global Competitiveness Index and the GDP growth of countries; however, it is a negative relationship between the Global Competitiveness Index and the standard deviation of the country’s GDP growth. The results argue that the Global Competitiveness Index is not capable of forecasting the future GDP growth rates of a country; however, the Global Competitiveness Index indicates if the country avoids sharp fluctuations in its GDP growth rates and maintains sustainable economic growth throughout the period.

scholarly journals THE EXTENSION OF THE LIFE CYCLE OF A COMPANY AT THE MATURE STAGE IN THE MC «ASCULAP» (PENZA)

2018 ◽  
pp. 21-31
Author(s):  
Светлана Борисова ◽  
Svetlana Borisova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
Methodological Development ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
A Company

According to the concept of the business life cycle, the mature stage is characterized by achievement of one of the leading positions on the market. As the range of services / products is expanded, new units are created, the structure becomes more complex and hierarchical. At the same time, there is a slowdown in economic growth rates, and their stabilization, as a rule, does not exceed the 5% level [8, p. 60]. The fall in demand and the processes of bureaucratization (and, often, excessive self-confidence of the management due to the previous successes of the company) lead to a gradual «aging» of the company and its end. The key goal of the management at this stage is to maximize the time spent at the mature stage and prevent the end of the company (with the exception of cases where there is no interest of the owners in the future operation of the company). The goal is to develop a model for extension of the life cycle of a commercial medical company at the mature stage and approbate it. The methodology: the author uses economic-mathematical methods, as well as statistical methods of analysis. The results: 1) a model for extension of the life cycle of a commercial medical company at the mature stage; 2) the results of the methodological development approbation in the management of a medical company at various stages of its life cycle confirm their effectiveness and expediency of use and, accordingly, practical significance of the study.

scholarly journals Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew G. Burgess ◽  
Ryan E. Langendorf ◽  
Tara Ippolito ◽  
Roger Pielke
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Negative Skewness ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Growth Volatility ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Authoritative economic growth forecasts are often optimistically biased. Negatively skewed variation--negative shocks being larger than positive shocks--could contribute to bias by making long-run average growth smaller than typical-year (median) growth. This positively biases forecasts based on typical years. We compare medians and means in real per-capita GDP growth across countries, regions, and time windows from 1820-2016. Over decadal periods, we find mean growth rates <1%/y smaller than median growth rates in most countries and regions (median 0.23%/y across countries). Surprisingly, we find both large- and medium-magnitude shocks contribute to these differences, rather than only large ‘black swan’ events. We find negative skewness correlated with high levels and slow growth of per-capita GDP and population, and high per-capita GDP growth volatility, building on previous studies. We find negative skewness alone insufficient to explain recent growth over-projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The impact of fundamental uncertainties on economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-234
Author(s):  
Ömer Yalçinkaya ◽  
Ali Kemal Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Theory ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper addresses the impact of fundamental (economic, political and geopolitical) uncertainties on GDP growth of the world’s largest 20 economies (W-20) using the Cobb-Douglas total production function within the scope of the second-generation panel data methodology for 1990–2016. The aim of the paper is to explore whether these uncertainties lead to a contractionary impact on growth as suggested by the economic theory. The estimation results revealed that indeed this was the case. Our results also indicate that the global uncertainties led the economic growth rates of the selected countries to perform below their exact potential since the 2008 global economic crisis and to fail to attain an expected recovery during the process.

THE CAUSE OF HIGHER ECONOMIC GROWTH: ASSESSING THE LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Motasam Tatahi ◽  
Emre Ipekci Cetin ◽  
M. Koray Cetin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship

This study examines the cause of higher (5% or more) economic growth rates in countries around the world over the past 35 years. It explores the long- and short-term relationships between GDP and government expenditures in these countries. A panel data set of 60 countries over the period from 1976 to 2010 is deployed to implement pooled mean group estimation. Countries are divided into three economic growth rate groups: high, middle, and low. Panel-based/error correction models are used to estimate long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics between government expenditures and GDP growth rates. Results indicate that the hypothesis of a common long-term elasticity and a short-term dynamic relationship between GDP growth rates and government expenditures cannot be rejected for high group countries, whereas for middle group countries this is true only for the long term, not for the short term. No long-term or short-term relationship between these two variables exists for low-growth-rate countries.

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