scholarly journals Application design to help predict market demand using the waterfall method

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 140-149
Author(s):  
Ramen Antonov Purba ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Application Design

Covid-19 has not been defeated make the economy unstable. The government increases purchasing power with a stimulus. The government's stimulus for PPnBM 0% of cars is a breath of fresh air. Sales rate increases. Even so, the ups and downs keep happening. Sales are unstable. In one to three months, five cars can be sold. It could also take 3 to 6 months, only 1 unit. Must make a strategy to avoid overcrowding of units. Like PT. Suka Fajar Ltd Medan. Companies engaged in the sale of Mitsubishi cars. As operating costs increase, management limits the acceptance of car shipments. This policy has fatal consequences. When consumers want to buy a particular car unit, it is not available. Incidents like this happened more than five times. The company's image is not good. Researched to design and build applications that can make predictions—collaborated with the linear regression. To be directed and sequential, the waterfall is used. Ensuring the application is suitable for testing with the black box. Research leads to the conclusion that the application is designed and built according to what is needed.

FRAUD CONFIRMATION, CLIENT SATISFACTION AND CLIENT LOYALTY

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Ngurah Pandji Mertha Agung Durya
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Client Satisfaction ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Quality Attributes ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
The Government

<p>This study aims to find evidence, the influence of Audit Quality Attributes, Client Satisfaction and Client Loyalty, which are moderated by Fraud Confirmation. The research was conducted at the BKM, a community-based organization, formed by the Government, through the <em>Kotaku</em> Program. The research used Regression statistical analysis and conducted a hypothesis test. Regression analysis used includes Simple Linear Regression Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis, and MRA Regression Analysis, and Path Model Linear Regression Analysis. This study also pays attention to the calculation of the coefficient of determination to give an idea of the ability of the model in explaining the phenomenon of Client Satisfaction and Client Loyalty. The result that both partially and simultaneously, Audit Quality Attributes, Fraud Confirmation affected Client Satisfaction and Loyalty. The research also succeeded in proving that Client Satisfaction mediates the effect of Audit Quality Attributes on Client Loyalty, but failed to provide empirical evidence, that the Fraud Confirmation moderated the effect of Audit Quality Attributes on Client Satisfaction and Loyalty. Contribution to audit practices, where it is important to realize Client Satisfaction through Audit Quality Attributes and Fraud Confirmation, especially in situations where Fraud acts are suspected.</p>

On the Use of Symmetries in Building Surrogate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Giselle Fernández-Godino ◽  
S. Balachandar ◽  
Raphael T. Haftka
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Surrogate Models ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Basis Functions ◽  
Regression Kriging ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Designs Of Experiments ◽  
Low Computational Cost

When simulations are expensive and multiple realizations are necessary, as is the case in uncertainty propagation, statistical inference, and optimization, surrogate models can achieve accurate predictions at low computational cost. In this paper, we explore options for improving the accuracy of a surrogate if the modeled phenomenon presents symmetries. These symmetries allow us to obtain free information and, therefore, the possibility of more accurate predictions. We present an analytical example along with a physical example that has parametric symmetries. Although imposing parametric symmetries in surrogate models seems to be a trivial matter, there is not a single way to do it and, furthermore, the achieved accuracy might vary. We present four different ways of using symmetry in surrogate models. Three of them are straightforward, but the fourth is original and based on an optimization of the subset of points used. The performance of the options was compared with 100 random designs of experiments (DoEs) where symmetries were not imposed. We found that each of the options to include symmetries performed the best in one or more of the studied cases and, in all cases, the errors obtained imposing symmetries were substantially smaller than the worst cases among the 100. We explore the options for using symmetries in two surrogates that present different challenges and opportunities: Kriging and linear regression. Kriging is often used as a black box; therefore, we consider approaches to include the symmetries without changes in the main code. On the other hand, since linear regression is often built by the user; owing to its simplicity, we consider also approaches that modify the linear regression basis functions to impose the symmetries.

The Political Economy of Infant Mortality in São Paulo, Brazil

1982 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles H. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Urban Poor ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Government

After the military took power in Brazil in 1964, the government adopted a wide range of policies designed to stimulate economic growth. A central aspect of the Brazilian model of development was the control of wages. From 1964 to 1975 this strategy caused the purchasing power of the minimum wage in the city of São Paulo to fall. The decline in the real wage index was associated with a rise in infant mortality during the period. When real wages rose after 1974, the death rate dropped off. The infant mortality trend cannot be explained by other factors that affect the actual or the reported death rate, such as changes in cityward migration, shifts in the distribution of income, and improvements in the quality of vital statistics. The findings of this study indicate a causal relationship between the infant mortality trend and changes in the purchasing power of the urban poor. Additional data on nutrition, changes in household behavior, and shifts in the cause structure of mortality support this conclusion.

scholarly journals Deforestation and Changes in People's Economies Due to Oil Palm Plantations in East Kalimantan

POPULIKA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-34
Author(s):  
Ramadhan Dwi Purwanto ◽  
Alam Mahadika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Palm ◽  
Living System ◽  
Access To Education ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
East Kalimantan ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Decent Life ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Land Exploitation

The market demand for oil palm commodities does make the plantation business a very profitable endeavor. The high demand led to the massive clearing of oil palm plantations in East Kalimantan that resulted in land exploitation. In addition, the concept of poverty alleviation by the government in East Kalimantan by relying on employment from palm oil plantations then added a new problem that is deforestation and changes in the local people's system to be discussed in this journal. This research uses qualitative descriptive. The result in the Get is 1.) The job opening brought about a new problem of community economic vulnerability due to an error in understanding the concept of poverty and the existence of fundamental source of blindness. 2.) East Kalimantan Region is only a land that is not followed by access to education and health and the assurance of a decent life for the company. 3.) The change of the living system depends only on one commodity of oil palm 4.) The exploitation of this land has an ongoing impact on deforestation in East Kalimantan, which is detrimental to the existence of diversity of plants, animals and local communities.

scholarly journals Optimal Pricing and Green Product Design Strategies in a Sustainable Supply Chain Considering Government Subsidy and Different Channel Power Structures

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12446
Author(s):  
Kelei Xue ◽  
Guohua Sun ◽  
Yuyan Wang ◽  
Shuiye Niu
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Green Product ◽  
Government Subsidy ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Green Product Design

Green product design is a vital measure to support sustainable development in a circular economy era. This paper studies the multi-product pricing and green product design strategies under different supply chain structures and government subsidy strategies. Considering different channel leadership, we establish the centralized (C), manufacturer-led (MS), and retailer-led (RS) supply chain models, respectively. By applying a game-theoretical approach, corresponding equilibrium pricing, green product design, and government subsidy decisions under different supply chain structures are obtained. Through comparison and numerical analysis, we find that: (1) the different subsidy strategies of the government have an important impact on green product development. When the government provides a uniform subsidy strategy, a RS supply chain can bring greener product, more market demands, more profit, and more social welfare; (2) when the government provides a differentiated subsidy strategy, MS and RS supply chain structures can bring greener product and more market demand than the centralized supply chain. They can also bring the same social welfare and the same product to the green design level. However, the MS supply chain structure can bring more profit for the firm; (3) the consumers’ green awareness positively impacts the design and development of green product. Therefore, it is beneficial for the firm to adopt reasonable measures to boost the environmental awareness of consumers in order to realize the sustainable development of our society.

scholarly journals Effect of Community Reception to Sustainable Ecotourism Development

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 258
Author(s):  
Ainur Rochmaniah
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Data Acquisition ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Tourism Destination ◽  
District Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
Marine Ecotourism ◽  
Acquisition Technique

Tourism has been an icon of countless regions in Indonesia since the founding of "Visit to Indonesia" in 2009 by the Government. All efforts were made by stakeholders (Government, managers of tourism destination, hotels and surrounding communities) in order to increase the visit of local tourist (Wiscal), archipelagic tourist (Wisnu) and foreign tourists (Wisman), one of the method is by implementing Saptapesona. The goal of this research is to distinguish the influence of reception of society of Sidoarjo toward marine ecotourism development through the implementation of Saptapesona. The type of this study is quantitative with data acquisition technique through observation and questionnaire, distributed to tourism managers, village and district government staff, and tourists in three different locations namely Sedati, Candi, and Jabon respectively for about 144 respondents. The data analysis was using simple linear regression. The results showed that there was a significant influence of community receptions on the development of marine ecotourism.

scholarly journals Capacity Choice and Government Regulation in a Vertical Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 513-524
Author(s):  
Junlong Chen ◽  
Yajie Wang ◽  
Jiali Liu
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Excess Capacity ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Government Failure ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Capacity Choice ◽  
The Government

This paper sets up an industry competition model consisting of two upstream enterprises and two downstream enterprises. Then we rely on the model to explore how non-regulation and different regulatory policies (maximizing the total profits of the upstream enterprises, the social welfare of the upstream industry or the overall social welfare) affect the following factors: the excess capacity, enterprise profits, consumer surpluses, social welfare in the upstream and downstream enterprises and the overall social welfare. The following conclusions are drawn from our research. First, whether and how the government regulates the capacity choice greatly affect the equilibrium outcomes, as well as the welfare distribution among the upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises, and consumers. The specific effects are dependent on market demand and enterprise cost. Second, the government should formulate its regulatory policies on capacity choice based on the overall social welfare of the entire supply chain. If the government aims to maximize the profits of the upstream enterprises, the social welfare of the downstream industry will be negatively affected. Third, excess capacity does not necessarily suppress social welfare. Under certain conditions, the worst scenario of excess capacity may occur under the pursuit of the maximal overall social welfare. Excess capacity may arise from various causes, rather than market competition or government regulation alone. Excess capacity cannot be attributed solely to government failure. These conclusions have some significance for optimizing capacity regulation policies.

scholarly journals WORKING CAPITAL TURNOVER, OPERATIONAL COST RATIO, AND INVENTORY TURNOVER ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-49
Author(s):  
Ajeng Eka Pratama ◽  
Muhaimin Dimyati ◽  
Yanna Eka Pratiwi
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Operational Cost ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Inventory Turnover

This study aims to determine the effect of working capital turnover, operational cost ratio, inventory turnover on the performance of UD. Firmansyah. The data used are the financial statements for the period 2015-2018. The data obtained were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The number of samples used was 48 samples. Partially the results show that working capital turnover and inventory turnover do not have a significant effect on company performance, while the ratio of operating costs has a significant effect on company performance. Meanwhile, simultaneously the research shows that working capital turnover, operational cost ratio, and inventory turnover have a significant effect on company performance. The coefficient of determination in this study is 0.165, which means that 16.5% of the company's performance can be explained by working capital turnover, operational cost ratio, and inventory turnover variables. At the same time, the remaining 83.5% is explained by other factors not included in this study.

scholarly journals Government Efforts to Increase MSME Sales in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florencia Lianggono
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Social Assistance ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Government Assistance ◽  
The Government ◽  
Medium Enterprises

When the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia, Indonesia’s economy experienced a very drastic decline. The government is also preparing a strategy to save micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) by providing social assistance, tax incentives, relaxation, and credit restructuring, to expand financing. Many efforts to develop and empower MSMEs have been carried out by the Central Government, Provinces, Districts, and Cities, including state-owned enterprises and regional-owned enterprises. The government has prepared a budget of Rp 28 trillion to help business capital to 12 million small and ultra micro entrepreneurs by 2020. The purpose of government assistance is to increase people's purchasing power, reduce poverty and unemployment.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PEMBANGUNAN KEBUDAYAAN TERHADAP PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Isna Zuriatina
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Human Life ◽  
National Development ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
Cultural Literacy ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Development Index ◽  
The Government

The diversity of Indonesian culture is a strong basic capital in development. The government has realized that cultural treasures in Indonesia are valuable assets. Cultural development is one of the government's efforts to improve the welfare and quality of human life in Indonesia. To measure the quality of human life, the Human Development Index (HDI) indicator is used, which explains how the population can access the results of development in obtaining income, health, education, and so on. The Cultural Development Index (CDI) is an instrument used to measure the achievements of cultural development performance, which consists of 7 dimensions, namely dimensions of cultural economy, education, socio-cultural resilience, cultural heritage, cultural expression, cultural literacy, and gender. To find out how much influence the CDI has on HDI in Indonesia, a simple linear regression statistical method is used. The result of this study illustrate that the CDI and HDI have a positive relationship, that is, the higher the CDI achievement, the higher the HDI achievement of a region. From the result of R Square shows that 40 percent of the HDI variable can be explained by the CDI variable, while the rest can be explained by other factors. Through a simple linear regression statistical analysis test found that every one percent increase in the CDI, will increase the HDI by 0.437 percent. This finding is expected to provide recommendations to the government regarding cultural-based national development. All development planning must also consider cultural development.

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