Model analysis of observed and predicted climate changes of groundwater recharge in the basin of a small river

2019 ◽  
pp. 78-86
Author(s):  
S. P. Pozdniakov ◽  
S. O. Grinevsky ◽  
E. A. Dediulina ◽  
V. N. Samartsev
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Moisture Transfer ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Small River ◽  
Catchment Basin ◽  
Dryness Index ◽  
Kaluga Region ◽  
The Difference

The analysis of the connection of groundwater recharge in the basin of a small river with the current and expected climatic changes in the European territory of Russia is carried out using the catchment basin of Zhizdra river Kaluga region as an example. The analysis was based on the modeling of the processes of transformation of moisture on the earth surface and moisture transfer in the aeration zone. The results of global climate predictions for five models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean (GCM) from the CMI5 family were applied for the forecast in the second half of the 21st century using the LARSWG5 forecast weather conditions generator. The simulation results show that despite the fact that all the GCM used predict a warming in the region at 2–6 ᵒC, the difference in the predicted recharge is still significantly large, which is associated with the difference in the predicted dryness index.

FACTOR ANALYSIS OF GEOGRAPHIC COORDINATES AT POINTS OF THE CHANNEL OF A SMALL RIVER ON SPACE IMAGES

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Matveevich Mazurkin ◽  
Yana Oltgovna Georgieva
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Small River ◽  
Binary Relations ◽  
Catchment Basin ◽  
Space Images ◽  
The North ◽  
Inverse Effect ◽  
Characteristic Points ◽  
Fractal Representation

The purpose of the article is the analysis of asymmetric wavelets in binary relations between three coordinates at 290 characteristic points from the source to the mouth of the small river Irovka. The hypsometric characteristic is the most important property of the relief. The Irovka River belongs to a low level, at the mouth it is 89 m high, and at the source it is 148 m above sea level. Modeling of binary relations with latitude, longitude, and height has shown that local latitude receives the greatest quantum certainty. In this case, all paired regularities received a correlation coefficient of more than 0.95. Such a high adequacy of wave patterns shows that geomorphology can go over to the wave multiple fractal representation of the relief. The Irovka River is characterized by a small anthropogenic impact, therefore, the relief over a length of 69 km has the natural character of the oscillatory adaptation of a small river to the surface of the Vyatka Uval from its eastern side. This allows us to proceed to the analysis of the four tributaries of the small river Irovka, as well as to model the relief of the entire catchment basin of 917 km2. The greatest adequacy with a correlation coefficient of 0.9976 was obtained by the influence of latitude on longitude, that is, the geographical location of the relief of the river channel with respect to the geomorphology of the Vyatka Uval. In second place with a correlation of 0.9967 was the influence of the height of the points of the channel of the small river on local longitude and it is also mainly determined by the relief of the Vyatka Uval. In third place was the effect of latitude on height with a correlation coefficient of 0.9859. And in last sixth place is the inverse effect of altitude on local latitude in the North-South direction.

Does climate change affect the chronobiological trends in occurrence of acute coronary syndromes?

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kuzma ◽  
A Kurasz ◽  
M Niwinska ◽  
EJ Dabrowski ◽  
M Swieczkowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndromes ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Coronary Syndromes ◽  
Atmospheric Changes

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are the leading cause of death all over the world, in the last years chronobiology of their occurrence has been changing. Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the influence of climate change on hospital admissions due to ACS. Methods Medical records of 10,529 patients hospitalized for ACS in 2008–2017 were examined. Weather conditions data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology. Results Among the patients, 3537 (33.6%) were hospitalized for STEMI, 3947 (37.5%) for NSTEMI, and 3045 (28.9%) for UA. The highest seasonal mean for ACS was recorded in spring (N = 2782, mean = 2.52, SD = 1.7; OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.0-1.2; P = 0.049) and it was a season with the highest temperature changes day to day (Δ temp.=11.7). On the other hand, every 10ºC change in temperature was associated with an increased admission due to ACS by 13% (RR 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.3; P = 0.008). Analysis of weekly changes showed that the highest frequency of ACS occurred on Thursday (N = 1703, mean = 2.7, SD = 1.9; OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.0-1.23; P = 0.004), in STEMI subgroup it was Monday (N = 592, mean = 0.9, SD = 1.6, OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1-1.4; P = 0.002). Sunday was associated with decreased admissions due to all types of ACS (N = 1098, mean = 1.7, SD = 1.4; OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.6-0.8, P < 0.001). In the second half of the study period (2013-2018) the relative risks of hospital admissions due to ACS were 1.043 (95%CI: 1.009-1.079, P = 0.014, lag 0) and 0.957 (95%CI: 0.925-0.990, P = 0.010, lag 1) for each 10ºC decrease in temperature; 1.049 (95% CI: 1.015-1.084, P = 0.004, lag 0) and 1.045 (95%CI: 1.011-1.080, P = 0.008, lag 1) for each 10 hPa decrease in atmospheric pressure and 1.180 (95% CI: 1.078-1.324, P = 0.007, lag 0) for every 10ºC change in temperature. For the first half of the study the risk was significantly lower. Conclusion We observed a shift in the seasonal peak of ACS occurrence from winter to spring which may be related to temperature fluctuation associated with climate change in this season. The lowest frequency of ACS took place on weekends. Atmospheric changes had a much more pronounced effect on admissions due to ACS in the second half of the analyzed period, which is in line with the dynamics of global climate change.

scholarly journals Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1509
Author(s):  
Mengru Zhang ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Ming Pan ◽  
Shanhu Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Future ◽  
Semi Arid

In the context of global climate change, it is important to monitor abnormal changes in extreme precipitation events that lead to frequent floods. This research used precipitation indices to describe variations in extreme precipitation and analyzed the characteristics of extreme precipitation in four climatic (arid, semi-arid, semi-humid and humid) regions across China. The equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method was used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation in eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs). From 1961 to 2005, the humid region had stronger and longer extreme precipitation compared with the other regions. In the future, the projected extreme precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer, and there will be large areas with substantial changes in maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5) and precipitation intensity (SDII). The greatest differences between two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are in semi-arid and semi-humid areas for summer precipitation anomalies. However, the area of the four regions with an increasing trend of extreme precipitation is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario than that under the RCP4.5 scenario. The increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the future is relatively pronounced, especially in humid areas, implying a potential heightened flood risk in these areas.

scholarly journals Can We Infer Diapycnal Mixing Rates from the World Ocean Temperature–Salinity Distribution?

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (12) ◽  
pp. 3751-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Arzel ◽  
Alain Colin de Verdière
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Diapycnal Mixing ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference

AbstractThe turbulent diapycnal mixing in the ocean is currently obtained from microstructure and finestructure measurements, dye experiments, and inverse models. This study presents a new method that infers the diapycnal mixing from low-resolution numerical calculations of the World Ocean whose temperatures and salinities are restored to the climatology. At the difference of robust general circulation ocean models, diapycnal diffusion is not prescribed but inferred. At steady state the buoyancy equation shows an equilibrium between the large-scale diapycnal advection and the restoring terms that take the place of the divergence of eddy buoyancy fluxes. The geography of the diapycnal flow reveals a strong regional variability of water mass transformations. Positive values of the diapycnal flow indicate an erosion of a deep-water mass and negative values indicate a creation. When the diapycnal flow is upward, a diffusion law can be fitted in the vertical and the diapycnal eddy diffusivity is obtained throughout the water column. The basin averages of diapycnal diffusivities are small in the first 1500 m [O(10−5) m2 s−1] and increase downward with bottom values of about 2.5 × 10−4 m2 s−1 in all ocean basins, with the exception of the Southern Ocean (50°–30°S), where they reach 12 × 10−4 m2 s−1. This study confirms the small diffusivity in the thermocline and the robustness of the higher canonical Munk’s value in the abyssal ocean. It indicates that the upward dianeutral transport in the Atlantic mostly takes place in the abyss and the upper ocean, supporting the quasi-adiabatic character of the middepth overturning.

scholarly journals Numerical Network Modeling of Heat and Moisture Transfer through Capillary-Porous Building Materials

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Borys Basok ◽  
Borys Davydenko ◽  
Anatoliy M. Pavlenko
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Moisture Transfer ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Total Pore Volume ◽  
Equivalent Diameter ◽  
Average Pore ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Three Dimensional Coordinate ◽  
Solid Liquid ◽  
Heat And Moisture

The article presents the modeling of the dynamics of the vapor-gas mixture and heat and mass transfer (sorption-desorption) in the capillary structure of the porous medium. This approach is underpinned by the fact that the porous structure is represented by a system of linear microchannels oriented along the axes of a three-dimensional coordinate system. The equivalent diameter of these channels corresponds to the average pore diameter, and the ratio of the total pore volume to the volume of the entire porous material corresponds to its porosity. The entire channel area is modeled by a set of cubic elements with a certain humidity, moisture content, pressure and temperature. A simulation is carried out taking into account the difference in temperatures of each of the phases: solid, liquid and gas.

United Front: Partisans of the Leningrad Region and their connections with the Central Asian Soviet Republics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (02) ◽  
pp. 214-225
Author(s):  
Sergey Kulik ◽  
Аnatoliy Kashevarov ◽  
Zamira Ishankhodjaeva
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Leningrad Region ◽  
World War ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Occupied Territory ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Almost All

During World War II, representatives of almost all the Soviet Republics fought in partisan detachments in the occupied territory of the Leningrad Region. Among them were many representatives of the Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Many Leningrad citizens, including relatives of partisans, had been evacuated to Central Asia by that time. However, representatives of Asian workers’ collectives came to meet with the partisans. The huge distance, the difference in cultures and even completely different weather conditions did not become an obstacle to those patriots-Turkestanis who joined the resistance forces in the North-West of Russia.

Analog Models for Empirical-Statistical Downscaling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Laura Bettolli
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Analog Method ◽  
Weather Typing ◽  
Regional Climates ◽  
Local Weather

Global climate models (GCM) are fundamental tools for weather forecasting and climate predictions at different time scales, from intraseasonal prediction to climate change projections. Their design allows GCMs to simulate the global climate adequately, but they are not able to skillfully simulate local/regional climates. Consequently, downscaling and bias correction methods are increasingly needed and applied for generating useful local and regional climate information from the coarse GCM resolution. Empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) methods generate climate information at the local scale or with a greater resolution than that achieved by GCM by means of empirical or statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and the local observed climate. As a counterpart approach, dynamical downscaling is based on regional climate models that simulate regional climate processes with a greater spatial resolution, using GCM fields as initial or boundary conditions. Various ESD methods can be classified according to different criteria, depending on their approach, implementation, and application. In general terms, ESD methods can be categorized into subgroups that include transfer functions or regression models (either linear or nonlinear), weather generators, and weather typing methods and analogs. Although these methods can be grouped into different categories, they can also be combined to generate more sophisticated downscaling methods. In the last group, weather typing and analogs, the methods relate the occurrence of particular weather classes to local and regional weather conditions. In particular, the analog method is based on finding atmospheric states in the historical record that are similar to the atmospheric state on a given target day. Then, the corresponding historical local weather conditions are used to estimate local weather conditions on the target day. The analog method is a relatively simple technique that has been extensively used as a benchmark method in statistical downscaling applications. Of easy construction and applicability to any predictand variable, it has shown to perform as well as other more sophisticated methods. These attributes have inspired its application in diverse studies around the world that explore its ability to simulate different characteristics of regional climates.

scholarly journals Boundary conditions for the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT v1.0)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Frigola ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Michael Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Middle Miocene ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Climate Transition

Abstract. The Middle Miocene Climate Transition was characterized by major Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling during the interval ~ 15–13 Ma. Here we present two sets of boundary conditions for global general circulation models characterizing the periods before (Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum; MMCO) and after (Middle Miocene Glaciation; MMG) the transition. These boundary conditions include Middle Miocene global topography, bathymetry and vegetation. Additionally, Antarctic ice volume and geometry, sea-level and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates for the MMCO and the MMG are reviewed. The boundary-condition files are available for use as input in a wide variety of global climate models and constitute a valuable tool for modeling studies with a focus on the Middle Miocene.

scholarly journals A new method for measuring optical scattering properties of atmospherically relevant dusts using the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer with Polarization (CASPOL)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1345-1356 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Glen ◽  
S. D. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Single Particle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Optical Scattering ◽  
Measurement Tool ◽  
Optical Signature ◽  
New Instrument ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Atmospherically Relevant

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have major impacts on regional and global climate through scattering and absorption of solar radiation. A new instrument, the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer with Polarization (CASPOL) from Droplet Measurement Technologies measures light scattered by aerosols in the forward (4° to 12°) and backward (168° to 176°) directions, with an additional polarized detector in the backward direction. Scattering by a single particle can be measured by all three detectors for aerosols in a broad range of sizes, 0.6 μm < diameter < 50 μm. The CASPOL is a unique measurement tool, since unlike most in-situ probes, it can measure optical properties on a particle-by-particle basis. In this study, single particle CASPOL measurements for thirteen atmospherically relevant dusts were obtained and their optical scattering signatures were evaluated. In addition, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was used to characterize the shape and morphology of each type of dust. The total and polarized backscatter intensities varied with particle size for all dust types. Using a new optical signature technique all but one dust type could be categorized into one of three optical scattering groups. Additionally, a composite method was used to derive the optical signature of Arizona Test Dust (ATD) by combining the signatures of its major components. The derived signature was consistent with the measured signature of ATD. Finally, calculated backscattering cross sections for representative dust from each of the three main groups were found to vary by as much as a factor of 7, the difference between the backscattering cross sections of white quartz (5.3 × 10−10 cm−2) and hematite (4.1 × 10−9 cm−2).

scholarly journals A Scale Interaction Study on East Asian Cyclogenesis Using a General Circulation Model Coupled with an Interactively Nested Regional Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (9) ◽  
pp. 2851-2868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaru Inatsu ◽  
Masahide Kimoto
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Mesh Size ◽  
The Sea Of Japan ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Anticyclonic Circulation

Abstract This study newly developed the interactively nested climate model (INCL) using a general circulation model (GCM) interactively nested with a regional atmospheric model (RAM). One interactive experiment with finer RAM topography and another with coarser topography, as well as offline versions of each experiment, were performed to investigate the effects of subsynoptic-scale eddies and subsynoptic-scale mountains in northeast Asia on the larger-scale climate, using the GCM with T42 atmosphere and the RAM with 40-km mesh size in the INCL system. The subsynoptic-scale eddy effect restrictively increased synoptic-scale eddy activity within the RAM domain. In contrast, subsynoptic-scale mountains had the effect of robust anticyclonic circulation around the Sea of Japan and effectively forced larger-scale circulation. The effect was positively fed back to the mean field and amplified the anticyclonic circulation accompanied by suppressed storm activity in northeast Asia. The results suggest that subsynoptic-scale mountains affect not only subsynoptic-scale eddies but also the global climate.

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