scholarly journals Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Soybeans Water Use and Yields in Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 593
Author(s):  
Oludare Sunday Durodola ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to reliance on rainfed agriculture. In this regard, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of soybean in the Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria, were evaluated for the baseline period (1986–2015) and future period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using AquaCrop Version 6.1. Future climate projections from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s climate models (HadGEM2-ES and RCA4) were used in simulating the future scenarios. The results show that for the baseline period, CWR and yield are increasing while CWP shows a slight increase. For the future period, the CWR is projected to fluctuate and depend on the rainfall pattern. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide fertilization has positive effects on yield and is projected to increase up to 40% under RCP 8.5. The results of this study certainly offer useful information on suitable adaption measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to improve soybean productivity in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Modelling Maize Yield and Water Requirements under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Oludare Sunday Durodola ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to large dependence on rainfed agriculture and to several uncertainties in the responses of crop production to climate change. The impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), irrigation water requirements (IWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of rainfed maize in Ogun-Osun River Basin, Nigeria were evaluated for a baseline period (1986–2015) and future projection period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For the baseline period, there is no significant trend within the variables studied. However, IWR is projected to increase significantly by up to 140% in the future period, while yield might likely decline under both scenarios up to −12%. This study shows that in the future periods, supplemental irrigation has little impact in improving yields, but an increase in soil fertility can improve yields and CWP by up to 80% in 2099. This paper offers useful information on suitable adaptation measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to counterbalance the effects of climate change on crop production.

scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Lotfirad ◽  
Arash Adib ◽  
Jaber Salehpoor ◽  
Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

scholarly journals Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Liu ◽  
Zezhong Guo ◽  
Guanhua Huang ◽  
Ruotong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Hexi Corridor ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021–2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012–2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021–2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.

scholarly journals A comparison between direct and indirect frameworks to evaluate impacts of climate change on streamflows: case study of Karkheh River basin in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Nasseri ◽  
Banafsheh Zahraie ◽  
Leila Forouhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Karkheh River Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract In this paper, two approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflows have been used. In the first approach (direct), a statistical downscaling technique was utilized to predict future streamflows based on large-scale data of general circulation models (GCMs). In the second approach (indirect), GCM outputs were downscaled to produce local climate conditions which were then used as inputs to a hydrological simulation model. In this article, some data-mining methods such as model-tree, multivariate adaptive regression splines and group method of data handling were utilized for direct downscaling of streamflows. Projections of HadCM3 model for A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were also used to simulate future climate conditions. These evaluations were done over three sub-basins of Karkheh River basin in southwest Iran. To achieve a comprehensive assessment, a global uncertainty assessment method was used to evaluate the results of the models. The results indicated that despite simplifications included in the direct downscaling, this approach is accurate enough to be used for assessing climate change impacts on streamflows without computational efforts of hydrological modeling. Furthermore, comparing future climate projections, the uncertainty associated with elimination of hydrological modeling is estimated to be high.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the water regime of the Inn River basin – extracting adaptation-relevant information from climate model ensembles and impact modelling

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Korck ◽  
J. Danneberg ◽  
W. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential hydrological impacts of climate change and cross boundary water management tasks in the Alpine Space. Regional analyses in this catchment were performed within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp. Objective of the study was to gain scientifically based knowledge about impacts of climate change on the water balance and runoff regime for the Inn River basin, this being fundamental for the derivation of adaptation measures. An ensemble of regional climate projections is formed by combinations of global and regional climate models on the basis of both statistical and bias-corrected dynamical downscaling procedures. Several available reference climate datasets for the study region are taken into account. As impact model, the process-oriented hydrological model WaSiM-ETH is set up. As expected, regional climate projections indicate temperature increases for the future in the study area. Projections of precipitation change are less homogenous, especially regarding winter months, though most indicate a decrease in the summer. Hydrological simulation results point towards climate induced changes in the water regime of the study region. The analysis of hydrological projections at both ends of the ensemble bandwidth is a source of adaptation relevant information regarding low-flow and high-flow conditions. According to a "drought-prone scenario", mean monthly low flow could decrease up to −40% in the time frame of 2071–2100. A "high-flow-increase-scenario" points towards an increase in mean monthly high flow in the order of +50% in the winter, whilst showing a decrease in autumn.

Streamflow Changes in the Duero River Basin using an Ensemble of Euro-CORDEX Projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricio Yeste ◽  
Juan José Rosa-Cánovas ◽  
Emilio Romero-Jiménez ◽  
Matilde García-Valdecasas-Ojeda ◽  
Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Vic Model

<p>Climate change has lead to a generalized decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature in the Iberian Peninsula during the last decades. These changes will be more intense over the course of the 21<sup>th</sup> century according to global climate projections. As a consequence, water resources are expected to decrease, particularly in the Duero River Basin.</p><p>This study is focused on the hydrological response of the Duero River Basin to the climate change. For this end, firstly, the implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in this Basin has been carried out. The VIC model has been calibrated for the period 2000-2009 with a dataset of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow. Precipitation and temperature data are extracted from SPREAD/STEAD, a dataset that covers the Peninsular Spain at 0.05º of spatial resolution. Streamflow data are provided by the Spanish Center for Public Work Experimentation and Study (CEDEX, Centro de Estudios y Experimentación de ObrasPúblicas). Subsequently, the VIC model has been validated for the period 2009-2011in order to verify that the model outputs fit well with the observational data.</p><p>After the validation of the VIC model for present climate, secondly, the impacts of climate change in the Duero River Basin have been analyzed by developing several future simulations using an ensemble of 18 members from the Euro-CORDEX database and three study periods: 1975-2005 as the historical period; 2020-2050 as the short-term future period, and 2070-2100 as the long-term future period. The Euro-CORDEX simulations for the two future periods are driven under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.</p><p>The first results of this work show that the VIC model outputs are in good agreement with the observed streamflow, for both the calibration and validation periods. In the context of climate change, a generalized decrease of the streamflow is expected in the Duero River Basin. The results from this study could be of interest for water policy makers and practitioners in the next decades.</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>Duero River Basin, VIC model, climate change, streamflow, projections.</p><p>ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: All the simulations were conducted in the ALHAMBRA cluster (http://alhambra.ugr.es/) of the University of Granada. This work was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness projects CGL2013-48539-R and CGL2017-89836-390-R, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER). The first author was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport of Spain (FPU grant FPU17/02098).</p>

scholarly journals Agricultural Water Productivity-Based Hydro-Economic Modeling for Optimal Crop Pattern and Water Resources Planning in the Zarrine River Basin, Iran, in the Wake of Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzad Emami ◽  
Manfred Koch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
The Future ◽  
Crop Area

For water-stressed regions/countries, like Iran, improving the management of agricultural water-use in the wake of climate change and increasingly unsustainable demands is of utmost importance. One step further is then the maximization of the agricultural economic benefits, by properly adjusting the irrigated crop area pattern to optimally use the limited amount of water available. To that avail, a sequential hydro-economic model has been developed and applied to the agriculturally intensively used Zarrine River Basin (ZRB), Iran. In the first step, the surface and groundwater resources, especially, the inflow to the Boukan Dam, as well as the potential crop yields are simulated using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model, driven by GCM/QM-downscaled climate predictions for three future 21th-century periods under three climate RCPs. While in all nine combinations consistently higher temperatures are predicted, the precipitation pattern are much more versatile, leading to corresponding changes in the future water yields. Using the basin-wide water management tool MODSIM, the SWAT-simulated water available is then optimally distributed across the different irrigation plots in the ZRB, while adhering to various environmental/demand priority constraints. MODSIM is subsequently coupled with CSPSO to optimize (maximize) the agro-economic water productivity (AEWP) of the various crops and, subsequently, the net economic benefit (NEB), using crop areas as decision variables, while respecting various crop cultivation constraints. Adhering to political food security recommendations for the country, three variants of cereal cultivation area constraints are investigated. The results indicate considerably-augmented AEWPs, resulting in a future increase of the annual NEB of ~16% to 37.4 Million USD for the 65%-cereal acreage variant, while, at the same time, the irrigation water required is reduced by ~38%. This NEB-rise is achieved by augmenting the total future crop area in the ZRB by about 47%—indicating some deficit irrigation—wherefore most of this extension will be cultivated by the high AEWP-yielding crops wheat and barley, at the expense of a tremendous reduction of alfalfa acreage. Though presently making up only small base acreages, depending on the future period/RCP, tomato- and, less so, potato- and sugar beet-cultivation areas will also be increased significantly.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis Related to Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Hydropower Production in the Lusatian Neisse River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Adynkiewicz-Piragas ◽  
Bartłomiej Miszuk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hydropower Production

Water resources are one of the most important issues affected by climate change. Climate scenarios show that in the upcoming decades, further climate change can occur. It concerns especially air temperature and sunshine duration, whose prognosis indicates a significant rising trend till the end of the century. The goal of the paper was the evaluation of water resources and hydropower production in the future, depending on climate scenarios with a consideration of risk analysis. The analysis was carried out on the basis of observation data for the Lusatian Neisse river basin (Poland) for 1971–2015 and climate projections till 2100 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways) scenarios. The results of the research showed that, especially in terms of RCP8.5, very high risk of decrease in water resources and hydropower production is expected in the future. Therefore, recommendations for mitigation of the possible effects are presented.

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