scholarly journals Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Mónica Rodrigues ◽  
Paula Santana ◽  
Alfredo Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
Related Mortality

Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period.

scholarly journals Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónica Rodrigues ◽  
Paula Santana ◽  
Alfredo Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Hot Temperature ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
The Future

Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045–2065 and −0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.

scholarly journals Changes in Six-Month Prevalence of Circulatory System Diseases among People Aged 20 Years and Older between 2013 and 2018 in Hunan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2599
Author(s):  
Zhenzhen Rao ◽  
Junjie Hua ◽  
Ruotong Li ◽  
Yanhong Fu ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors

Recent changes in population-based prevalence for circulatory system diseases (CSDs) remain unreported either nationally or locally for China. Data were from the two-round health service household interview survey of Hunan Province, China, in 2013 and 2018. A Rao–Scott chi-square test was performed to examine prevalence differences across socio-demographic variables. The overall age-standardized prevalence of CSDs increased substantially between 2013 and 2018 for inhabitants aged 20 years and older (14.25% vs. 21.25%; adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.24–2.04). Hypertensive disease was the most prevalent type of CSD, accounting for 87.24% and 83.83% of all CSDs in 2013 and in 2018, respectively. After controlling for other socio-demographic factors, the prevalence of CSDs was significantly higher in 2018 (adjusted OR = 1.40), urban residents (adjusted OR = 1.43), females (adjusted OR = 1.12) and older age groups (adjusted OR = 5.36 for 50–59 years, 9.51 for 60–69 years, 15.19 for 70–79 years, and 12.90 for 80 years and older) than in 2013, rural residents, males and the youngest age group (20–49 years). The recent increase in the overall age-standardized CSD prevalence and the large prevalence disparities across urban/rural residents, sex and age groups merit the attention of policymakers and researchers. Further prevention efforts are needed to curb the increasing tendency and to reduce the prevalence of disparities across socio-demographic groups.

scholarly journals Characteristics of mortality in the Orenburg region population in 2011-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-104
Author(s):  
Evgenii L. Borschuk ◽  
Dmitrii N. Begun ◽  
Tatyana V. Begun
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Orenburg Region ◽  
The Third ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
External Causes

Objectives - to study the mortality indicators, their dynamics and structure, in the population of the Orenburg region in the period of 2011-2017. Material and methods. The study was conducted using the data from the territorial authority of statistics in the Orenburg region in the period from 2011 to 2017. The analytical, demographic and statistical methods were implemented for the study of the demographic indicators. Results. Cities and municipal settlements of the Orenburg region with high mortality indicators were included in the second and fourth clusters during the cluster analysis. The first and third clusters included cities and municipal settlements with an average mortality. The most favorable position has the Orenburg area with the lowest mortality rate in the region in 2017 - 8.4%. The dynamics of mortality rates among the male and female population tends to decrease, more pronounced dynamics is in men. Though, the male population is characterized by higher mortality rates in all age groups. The leading position among the causes of death is taken by diseases of the circulatory system (46.3% of the total mortality). The second position is occupied by tumors (17.2%), the third - by external causes (8.4%). Mortality from circulatory system diseases and from external causes has reduced. The dynamics of mortality from tumors does not change significantly. The rank of leading causes of death is not identical in the clusters: in the third and fourth clusters, the other causes occupy the second place in the structure of mortality, while tumors occupy the third. Conclusion. In the Orenburg region, the mortality rate is higher than overage in the Russian Federation by 0.9 per 1000 people. The study revealed significant territorial differences in the mortality rates. In general, the mortality among men in all age groups is higher than the mortality of women. The mortality rate from diseases of the circulatory system plays the leading role in the structure of mortality, but has the tendency for decline. Until 2006, the mortality from external causes ranked the second place, now the second place is taken by death from tumors The mortality from external causes is decreasing; mortality from tumors does not change significantly. The obtained results could be used by local authorities in developing the program of public health protection and assessing its effectiveness.

ASSESSMENT OF THE PREVALENCE OF DISEASES OF THE CIRCULATORY SYSTEM IN TRANSPORT INDUSTRY WORKERS IN VARIOUS AGE GROUPS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.G. Khotuleva ◽  
◽  
A.V. Karpushina ◽  
L.P. Kuzmina
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular System ◽  
Gradual Increase ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Permanent Disability ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Transport Industry ◽  
Medical Examinations

Abstract. Summary. The leading cause of mortality, temporary and permanent disability is "age-dependent" (age-associated) diseases, the main of which are pathologies of the cardiovascular system. The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of diseases of the circulatory system in workers of the transport industry in various age groups. Materials and methods. The data of objective periodic and preliminary medical examinations conducted in the FSBSI «Izmerov Research Institute of Occupational Health», among Metro employees for people, were analyzed. The assessment was carried out in various age groups, starting from the age of 30 to 70 years (in increments of 5 years). The prevalence of diseases of the circulatory system in workers of different ages was analyzed. Results. There is a pronounced tendency to increase the prevalence of diseases of the cardiovascular system with age in Metro workers. There was a significant increase in the relative risk of diseases characterized by high blood pressure in all age groups relative to the previous age group, except for the 70-74 year group, in which the risk does not increase relative to the 65-69 year group, which indicates a gradual increase in the prevalence of the disease with increasing age. The prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) was also estimated. An increase in the frequency of occurrence of this pathology has been shown from the age of 55-59 years.

An Examination of Climate Change on Extreme Heat Events and Climate–Mortality Relationships in Large U.S. Cities

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Greene ◽  
Laurence S. Kalkstein ◽  
David M. Mills ◽  
Jason Samenow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Synoptic Classification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract This study examines the impact of a changing climate on heat-related mortality in 40 large cities in the United States. A synoptic climatological procedure, the spatial synoptic classification, is used to evaluate present climate–mortality relationships and project how potential climate changes might affect these values. Specifically, the synoptic classification is combined with downscaled future climate projections for the decadal periods of 2020–29, 2045–55, and 2090–99 from a coupled atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model. The results show an increase in excessive heat event (EHE) days and increased heat-attributable mortality across the study cities with the most pronounced increases projected to occur in the Southeast and Northeast. This increase becomes more dramatic toward the end of the twenty-first century as the anticipated impact of climate change intensifies. The health impact associated with different emissions scenarios is also examined. These results suggest that a “business as usual” approach to greenhouse gas emissions mitigation could result in twice as many heat-related deaths by the end of the century than a lower emissions scenario. Finally, a comparison of future estimates of heat-related mortality during EHEs is presented using algorithms developed during two different, although overlapping, time periods, one that includes some recent large-scale significant EHE intervention strategies (1975–2004), and one without (1975–95). The results suggest these public health responses can significantly decrease heat-related mortality.

scholarly journals Mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory system in Karachay-Cherkess republic in 2006 and 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-618
Author(s):  
I V Samorodskaya ◽  
E V Bolotova ◽  
F Y Bidzhieva
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Recurrent Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
Causes Of Deaths ◽  
Standardized Mortality Rate

Aim. To study mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory system and certain nosological forms in Karachay-Cherkess Republic in 2006 and 2014.Methods. The data of the Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service on the number of deaths according to a short nomenclature of causes of deaths were analyzed. The nosological structure was studied, proportion of each of the causes of death in the total number of deaths from circulatory system diseases was defined. The names of groups of short nomenclature of causes of deaths in 2006 and 2014 were compared. Non-standardized and standardized mortality rates were calculated.Results. Standardized mortality rate due to circulatory diseases decreased by 29.3% in 2014 in comparison with 2006. The decline in mortality due to circulatory system diseases was noted in all age groups, except for the age group 25-29 years (+18.5%) and 60-64 years (+4.2%). Deaths due to primary and recurrent myocardial infarction decreased (by 46.2%) in all age groups except the age of 40-44 years and 80-84 years, in which the mortality rate due to primary and recurrent myocardial infarction increased by 12.5 and 49.4%, respectively. The mortality from ischemic heart disease increased in age 35-39 years (by 11.3%) and 40-44 years (39.4%). In other age groups, the mortality from ischemic heart disease decreased, the maximum reduction was reported in age 65-69 years (54.8%). Standardized mortality rate due to cerebrovascular diseases decreased by 44.06% in 2014 in comparison with 2006.Conclusion. Taking into account significant contribution to the mortality structure due to circulatory system diseases number of deaths, causes of which are not clearly classified and cause problems with clinical interpretation, this issue requires attention of cardiologists, in terms of both health care delivery and specification of the patients’ health status.

scholarly journals Temporal Changes in Alcohol-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Germany

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 262-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludwig Kraus ◽  
Alexander Pabst ◽  
Daniela Piontek ◽  
Gerrit Gmel ◽  
Kevin D. Shield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care Access ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Care Access ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
Attributable Fractions ◽  
Per Capita Consumption ◽  
Related Mortality

Aims: Trends in morbidity and mortality, fully or partially attributable to alcohol, for adults aged 18-64 were assessed for Germany. Methods: The underestimation of population exposure was corrected by triangulating survey data with per capita consumption. Alcohol-attributable fractions by sex and two age groups were estimated for major disease categories causally linked to alcohol. Absolute numbers, population rates and proportions relative to all hospitalizations and deaths were calculated. Results: Trends of 100% alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality over thirteen and eighteen years, respectively, show an increase in rates of hospitalizations and a decrease in mortality rates. Comparisons of alcohol-attributable morbidity including diseases partially caused by alcohol revealed an increase in hospitalization rates between 2006 and 2012. The proportion of alcohol-attributable hospitalizations remained constant. Rates of alcohol-attributable mortality and the proportion among all deaths decreased. Conclusions: The increasing trend in mortality due to alcohol until the mid-1990s has reversed. The constant proportion of all hospitalizations that were attributable to alcohol indicates that factors such as improved treatment and easier health care access may have influenced the general increase in all-cause morbidity. To further reduce alcohol-related mortality, efforts in reducing consumption and increasing treatment utilization are needed.

scholarly journals Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Sanchez Martinez ◽  
Michela Baccini ◽  
Koen De Ridder ◽  
Hans Hooyberghs ◽  
Wouter Lefebvre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Related Mortality

scholarly journals The Swedish Randomised Mammography Screening Trials: Analysis of Their Effect on the Breast Cancer Related Excess Mortality

1996 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 129-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars-Gunnar Larsson ◽  
Lennarth Nyström ◽  
Stig Wall ◽  
LarsErik Rutqvist ◽  
Ingvar Andersson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Mammography Screening ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Randomised Trials ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Screening Trials

Objective –To apply an indirect method for estimation of the breast cancer related excess mortality in the Swedish randomised mammography screening trials. Setting –Randomised trials on mammography screening have, in Sweden, been performed in the counties of Kopparberg (W) and Östergötland (E), the so called WE study, and in the three largest cities in Sweden, Stockholm (southern part), Gothenburg, and Malmö. An overview of the trials was presented in the Lancet in 1993 and included 156 911 women in the invited group and 125 866 in the control group. Methods –The excess mortality in the breast cancer subgroups was estimated by indirect standardisation using official national cause of death statistics according to Statistics Sweden as a reference. Results—The estimated reduction of the breast cancer related mortality was 24% for the whole group (40–74 years at randomisation). The corresponding figures for the age groups 40–49, 50–59, and 60–69 years were 6%, 28%, and 34% respectively. Conclusion –The results are very similar to those presented earlier based on the traditional comparison of the breast cancer mortality in the invited and in the control group. This analysis further strengthens previous reports on a beneficial effect of mammography screening, which is especially pronounced in the age group 50–69.

scholarly journals Analysis of pathologies among workers of a large enterprise of housing and communal services based on the results of periodic medical examinations

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 695-700
Author(s):  
G Ya Bendyuk ◽  
M A Dokhov ◽  
A A Sidorov
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Pathological Process ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Mastoid Process ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Preventive Work ◽  
Medical Examinations

Aim. The determination of age-specific coefficients of pathologies in the team of SUE “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg” for 2015–2017. Methods. The study was conducted in the Medical unit of SUE “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg” in 2015–2017. 8600 people were followed up for 3 years. During the study, extensive indicators of the structure of the pathological process and intensive indicators characterizing its prevalence were calculated. Results. As a result of the study, it was found that the first place (27.1%) in the structure of pathologies both in men and women is occupied by diseases of the eye and its adnexa. At the second ranked place (25.7%) there were diseases of the circulatory system. As a result of the study, age groups with a high rate of increase in morbidity were identified. Thus, the rate of increase in the detection of pathology of the circulatory system at the transition from the age group below 25 years to the age group 25–29 years was 73.7% among men and 80.4% among women. It was found that diseases of the ear and mastoid process were more common among men, and the greatest increase in the incidence was recorded in the age group 25–29 years. At the same time, diseases of the genitourinary system were more common in women, and the highest incidence rate was revealed in the age group 40–44 years. Conclusion. Тhe results indicate the need for a differentiated approach to planning the volume of preventive work in different age groups of employees of the housing and communal services enterprise.

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