scholarly journals A pragmatic approach for analysis of long-term climate trends for apple growing regions of Himachal Pradesh, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1445-1451
Author(s):  
Arundhati ◽  
R. M. Bhagat
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Himachal Pradesh ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Chilling Hours ◽  
The Impact

The study assessed the long-term climate as well as the area and production trends for four representative decades (1985-2020) in three apple growing districts of Himachal Pradesh, India with the objective of understanding the impact of climate change on apple crop. A long term database was prepared for minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and rainfall, besides area and production for four decades for three districts of Himachal Pradesh, India. Trend analysis indicated that the temperature in apple growing regions of generally showed an increasing trend, whereas, decreasing trend was observed in the precipitation. The minimum temperature in apple growing regions of Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur districts has shown an increase of 0.82º C, 1.09 º C and 0.03 ºC, respectively and the precipitation (rainfall) in the Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur districts has shown a decrease by 5.3 mm, 3.3 mm and 0.9 mm, respectively. Increased warming in the mountain regions is elevating temperatures resulting in the reduction of chilling hours,  pre-requisite for apple fruiting. However, in the higher elevation of Shimla, Kullu and Kinnaur districts, in spite of the increase in temperature, the areas are still suitable for apple farming. The study indicated that the area and production of all three districts of study are increasing because growers are slowly shifting to low chilling varieties (Varieties having chilling hours requirement less than 1000 hours).  Also, the present ecosystem at lower elevations will not support high chilling requirement varieties and apple growers will have to shift to either low chilling varieties or alternate crops.

scholarly journals Towards New Horizons: Climate Trends in Europe Increase the Environmental Suitability for Permanent Populations of Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Natalia Fernández-Ruiz ◽  
Agustín Estrada-Peña
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
Hyalomma Marginatum ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing their current distribution, presumably due to the impact of the climate trends. On a large scale, these trends are changing the environmental suitability of Hyalomma marginatum, the main vector of several pathogens affecting human health. We generated annual models of environmental suitability for the tick in the period 1970–2018, using harmonic regression-derived data of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, soil moisture and water vapor deficit. The results demonstrate an expansion of the suitable area in Mediterranean countries, southeast central Europe and south of the Balkans. Also, the models allowed us to interpret the impact of the ecological variables on these changes. We deduced that (i) maximum temperature was significant for all of the biogeographical categories, (ii) soil humidity has an influence in the Mediterranean climate areas, and (iii) the minimum temperature and deficit water vapor did not influence the environmental suitability of the species. The conclusions clearly show that climate change could create new areas in Europe with suitable climates for H. marginatum, while keeping its “historical” distribution in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore possible risk areas for H. marginatum and its associated pathogens.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trend Analysis in Annual and Seasonal Precipitation, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Southwest United States

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Koffi Djaman ◽  
Komlan Koudahe ◽  
Ansoumana Bodian ◽  
Lamine Diop ◽  
Papa Malick Ndiaye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Crop Season ◽  
Southwest United States ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Increasing Trend

The objective of this study is to perform trend analysis in the historic data sets of annual and crop season [May–September] precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperatures across the southwest United States. Eighteen ground-based weather stations were considered across the southwest United States for a total period from 1902 to 2017. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test method was used for the significance of the trend analysis and the Sen’s slope estimator was used to derive the long-term average rates of change in the parameters. The results showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation at 44.4% of the stations with the Sen’s slopes varying from −1.35 to −0.02 mm/year while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Crop season total precipitation showed non-significant variation at most of the stations except two stations in Arizona. Seventy-five percent of the stations showed increasing trend in annual maximum temperature at the rates that varied from 0.6 to 3.1 °C per century. Air cooling varied from 0.2 to 1.0 °C per century with dominant warming phenomenon at the regional scale of the southwest United States. Average annual minimum temperature had increased at 69% of the stations at the rates that varied from 0.1 to 8 °C over the last century, while the annual temperature amplitude showed a decreasing trend at 63% of stations. Crop season maximum temperature had significant increasing trend at 68.8% of the stations at the rates varying from 0.7 to 3.5 °C per century, while the season minimum temperature had increased at 75% of the stations.

scholarly journals Trends Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature over Nagwan Watershed, Hazaribagh District, Jharkhand

2020 ◽  
pp. 112-128
Author(s):  
Raj Bahadur ◽  
R. K. Jaiswal ◽  
A. K. Nema ◽  
Anshu Gangwar ◽  
Sandeep Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Z Value ◽  
The Impact

Trend analysis is performed to find the pattern that prevails in Nagwan watershed area located in Hazaribagh district of Jharkhand (India) having very high average annual rainfall in the range of 1146 mm. The study aims to investigated the impacts of global warming by examine precipitation and temperature change over a period. Non-parametric MK test and Sen’s Slope estimator were used to assess the trend in long-term rainfall and temperature time series (1981-2019). The analysis has been carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual scale to identify meso-scale climate change effect on hydrological regime. The precipitation in the summer showed an increasing trend (Z value +1.67) and there was increasing trend in the seasonal rainfall which influences the total water availability in the watershed. There was increase in minimum temperature during summer season which shows the impact of global warming and may results in increasing the duration of the summer season. The annual average minimum temperature in the watershed showed an increasing trend (Z value +2.08) at 0.05 level of significance indicated hot nights in the summer. The annual average maximum temperature in the watershed showed a decreasing trend (Z value -1.26). Fluctuation and change in trend of rainfall and temperature possess potential risk hence it is important to understand and identify the pattern of rainfall and temperature for assessing impact of climate change and it is necessary to adopt appropriate steps for agriculture crop planning and improving farmer’s capability to cope with challenging situations due to environmental and climate changes.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Miyuru B. Gunathilake ◽  
Yasasna V. Amaratunga ◽  
Anushka Perera ◽  
Imiya M. Chathuranika ◽  
Anura S. Gunathilake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
The Impact

Water resources in Northern Thailand have been less explored with regard to the impact on hydrology that the future climate would have. For this study, three regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to project future climate of the upper Nan River basin. Future climate data of ACCESS_CCAM, MPI_ESM_CCAM, and CNRM_CCAM under Representation Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were bias-corrected by the linear scaling method and subsequently drove the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate future streamflow. This study compared baseline (1988–2005) climate and streamflow values with future time scales during 2020–2039 (2030s), 2040–2069 (2050s), and 2070–2099 (2080s). The upper Nan River basin will become warmer in future with highest increases in the maximum temperature of 3.8°C/year for MPI_ESM and minimum temperature of 3.6°C/year for ACCESS_CCAM under RCP8.5 during 2080s. The magnitude of changes and directions in mean monthly precipitation varies, with the highest increase of 109 mm for ACESSS_CCAM under RCP 4.5 in September and highest decrease of 77 mm in July for CNRM, during 2080s. Average of RCM combinations shows that decreases will be in ranges of −5.5 to −48.9% for annual flows, −31 to −47% for rainy season flows, and −47 to −67% for winter season flows. Increases in summer seasonal flows will be between 14 and 58%. Projection of future temperature levels indicates that higher increases will be during the latter part of the 20th century, and in general, the increases in the minimum temperature will be higher than those in the maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset negative impacts of future changes in climate. In addition, the results will also be valuable for agriculturists and hydropower planners.

scholarly journals Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennert B. Stap ◽  
Peter Köhler ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of climate models is calculated as the equilibrium global mean surface air warming resulting from a simulated doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. In these simulations, long-term processes in the climate system, such as land ice changes, are not incorporated. Hence, climate sensitivity derived from paleodata has to be compensated for these processes, when comparing it to the ECS of climate models. Several recent studies found that the impact these long-term processes have on global temperature cannot be quantified directly through the global radiative forcing they induce. This renders the prevailing approach of deconvoluting paleotemperatures through a partitioning based on radiative forcings inaccurate. Here, we therefore implement an efficacy factor ε[LI] that relates the impact of land ice changes on global temperature to that of CO2 changes in our calculation of climate sensitivity from paleodata. We apply our refined approach to a proxy-inferred paleoclimate dataset, using ε[LI]=0.45-0.20+0.34 based on a multi-model assemblage of simulated relative influences of land ice changes on the Last Glacial Maximum temperature anomaly. The implemented ε[LI] is smaller than unity, meaning that per unit of radiative, forcing the impact on global temperature is less strong for land ice changes than for CO2 changes. Consequently, our obtained ECS estimate of 5.8±1.3 K, where the uncertainty reflects the implemented range in ε[LI], is ∼50 % higher than when differences in efficacy are not considered.

scholarly journals Long term monthly and inter-seasonal weather variability analysis for the lower Shivalik foothills of Punjab

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-180
Author(s):  
NAVNEET KAUR ◽  
M.J. SINGH ◽  
SUKHJEET KAUR
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Sunshine Hours ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Weather Parameters

This paper aims to study the long-term trends in different weather parameters, i.e., temperature, rainfall, rainy days, sunshine hours, evaporation, relative humidity and temperature over Lower Shivalik foothills of Punjab. The daily weather data of about 35 years from agrometeorological observatory of Regional Research Station Ballowal Saunkhri representing Lower Shivalik foothills had been used for trend analysis for kharif (May - October), rabi (November - April), winter (January - February), pre-monsoon (March - May), monsoon (June - September) and post monsoon (October - December) season. The linear regression method has been used to estimate the magnitude of change per year and its coefficient of determination, whose statistical significance was checked by the F test. The annual maximum temperature, morning and evening relative humidity has increased whereas rainfall, evaporation sunshine hours and wind speed has decreased significantly at this region. No significant change in annual minimum temperature and diurnal range has been observed. Monthly maximum temperature revealed significant increase except January, June and December, whereas, monthly minimum temperature increased significantly for February, March and October and decreased for June. Among different seasons, maximum temperature increased significantly for all seasons except winter season, whereas, minimum temperature increased significantly for kharif and post monsoon season only. The evaporation, sunshine hours and wind speed have also decreased and relative humidity decreased significantly at this region. Significant reduction in kharif, monsoon and post monsoon rainfall has been observed at Lower Shivalik foothills. As the region lacks assured irrigation facilities so decreasing rainfall and change in the other weather parameters will have profound effects on the agriculture in this region so there is need to develop climate resilient agricultural technologies.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Heatwaves in Recent Decades over China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 3824
Author(s):  
Jinping Liu ◽  
Yanqun Ren ◽  
Hui Tao ◽  
Masoud Jafari Shalamzari
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Technological Support ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact

Global warming and rapid socioeconomic development increased the risk of regional and global disasters. Particularly in China, annual heatwaves (HWs) caused many fatalities and substantial property damage, with an increasing trend. Therefore, it is of great scientific value and practical importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of HW in China for the sustainable development of regional socioeconomic and disaster risk management. In this study, based on gridded maximum temperature product and specific humidity dataset, an HW evaluation algorithm, considering the impact of humidity on the human body and the characteristics of HW in China, was employed to generate daily HW state at light, moderate, and severe levels for the period 1979–2018. Consequently, the regional differences at three HW levels were revealed, and the changing trend of HW onset, termination, and duration in each subregion was analyzed. The results show that in the three levels, the frequency and duration of HW in China had a significant increasing trend, generally characterized by the advancement of HW onset and the postponement of HW termination. The HW influence at light, moderate and severe levels decreased gradually, with the light level occurring the earliest and terminating the latest. Among the seven subregions, the largest HW frequency happened to be mainly in XJ (Xinjiang), SC (Southern China), and NC (Northern China), while the variations of HW onset and termination had noticeable regional differences at the three levels. The findings presented in this study can provide the essential scientific and technological support for national and regional disaster prevention mitigation and adaptation to extreme climate events.

scholarly journals Spring Weather and COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed M. Karimi ◽  
Mahdi Majbouri ◽  
Kelsey White ◽  
Bert Little ◽  
W. Paul McKinney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ultraviolet Light ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
State Level ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Average Minimum Temperature ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study used statistically robust regression models to control for a large set of confounders (including county-level time-invariant factors and time trends, regional-level daily variation, state-level social distancing measures, ultraviolet light, and levels of ozone and fine particulate matter, PM2.5) to estimate a reliable rather than simple regression for the impact of weather on the most accurately measured outcome of COVID-19, death. When the average minimum temperature within a five-day window increased by one degree Fahrenheit in spring 2020, daily death rates in northern U.S. counties increased by an estimated 5.1%. When ozone concentration over a five-day window rose by one part per billion, daily death rates in southern U.S. counties declined by approximately 2.0%. Maximum temperature, precipitation, PM2.5, and ultraviolet light did not significantly associate with COVID-19 mortality. The mechanism that may drive the observed association of minimum temperature on COVID-19 deaths in spring months may be increased mobility and contacts. The effect of ozone may be related to its disinfectant properties, but this requires further confirmation.

scholarly journals Modeling and Trend Analysis of Climatic Variables of Ranchi District, Jharkhand

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-128
Author(s):  
PAWAN JEET ◽  
KN SINGH ◽  
RAJEEV RANJAN KUMAR ◽  
BISHAL GURANG ◽  
AK SINGH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Increasing Trend

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall, and average annual maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1901-2015 over Ranchi district of Jharkhand, India. Long-term changes in rainfall, temperature was determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and Sen’s slope, and forecasting of time series was determined by ARIMA model. The results revealed that there was significant decrease of average rainfall in the month of February and August while increase in month May and Pre-monsoon season. Average rainfall in the month of February, May, August and Pre-monsoon season showing insignificant increasing as well as decreasing rainfall trend. The average annual maximum and minimum temperature showing decreasing and increasing trend over Ranchi district during the period 1901 to 2015. This paper also describes five-year prediction of rainfall and temperature climatic variables.

scholarly journals Vertical Differences in the Long-Term Trends and Breakpoints of NDVI and Climate Factors in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4707
Author(s):  
Hui Ping Tsai ◽  
Geng-Gui Wang ◽  
Zhong-Han Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Long Term Trends

This study explored the long-term trends and breakpoints of vegetation, rainfall, and temperature in Taiwan from overall and regional perspectives in terms of vertical differences from 1982 to 2012. With time-series Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and Taiwan Climate Change Estimate and Information Platform (TCCIP) gridded monthly climatic data, their vertical dynamics were investigated by employing the Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) algorithm, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and the Durbin–Watson test. The vertical differences in NDVI values presented three breakpoints and a consistent trend from positive (1982 to 1989) to negative at varied rates, and then gradually increased after 2000. In addition, a positive rainfall trend was discovered. Average and maximum temperature had similar increasing trends, while minimum temperature showed variations, especially at higher altitudes. In terms of regional variations, the vegetation growth was stable in the north but worse in the central region. Higher elevations revealed larger variations in the NDVI and temperature datasets. NDVI, along with average and minimum temperature, showed their largest changes earlier in higher altitude areas. Specifically, the increasing minimum temperature direction was more prominent in the mid-to-high-altitude areas in the eastern and central regions. Seasonal variations were observed for each region. The difference between the dry and wet seasons is becoming larger, with the smallest difference in the northern region and the largest difference in the southern region. Taiwan’s NDVI and climatic factors have a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05), but the maximum and minimum temperatures have significant positive effects at low altitudes below 500 m. The northern and central regions reveal similar responses, while the south and east display different feedbacks. The results illuminate climate change evidence from assessment of the long-term dynamics of vegetation and climatic factors, providing valuable references for establishing correspondent climate-adaptive strategies in Taiwan.

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