scholarly journals Inter-Zone Differences of Convective Development in a Convection Outbreak Event over Southeastern Coast of China: An Observational Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Yipeng Huang ◽  
Murong Zhang ◽  
Yuchun Zhao ◽  
Ben Jong-Dao Jou ◽  
Hui Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Southeastern Coast ◽  
Freezing Level ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Environmental Variations ◽  
Wind Shears

Among the densely-populated coastal areas of China, the southeastern coast has received less attention in convective development despite having been suffering from significantly increasing thunderstorm activities. The convective complexity under such a region with extremely complex underlying and convective conditions deserves in-depth observational surveys. This present study examined a high-impact convection outbreak event with over 40 hail reports in the southeastern coast of China on 6 May 2020 by focusing on contrasting the convective development (from convective initiation to supercell occurrences) among three adjacent convection-active zones (north (N), middle (M), and south (S)). The areas from N to S featured overall flatter terrain, higher levels of free convection, lower relative humidity, larger convective inhibition, more convective available potential energy, and greater vertical wind shears. With these mesoscale environmental variations, distinct inter-zone differences in the convective development were observed with the region’s surveillance radar network and the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. Convection initiated in succession from N to S and began with more warm-rain processes in N and M and more ice-phase processes in S. The subsequent convection underwent more vigorous vertical growth from N to S. The extremely deep convection in S was characterized by the considerably strong precipitation above the freezing level, echo tops of up to 18 km, and a great amount of deep (even overshooting) and thick convective clouds with significant cloud-top glaciation. Horizontal anvil expansion in convective clouds was uniquely apparent over S. From N to S, more pronounced mesocyclone and weak-echo region signatures indicated high risks of severe supercell hailstorms. These results demonstrate the strong linkage between the occurrence likelihood of severe convection and associated weather (such as supercells and hailstones) and the early-stage convective development that can be well-captured by high-resolution observations and may facilitate fine-scale convection nowcasting.

scholarly journals Cloud-Resolving Simulations of Deep Convection over a Heated Mountain

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 361-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Kirshbaum
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Background Wind ◽  
Black Forest ◽  
Mountain Ridge ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Initial Flow ◽  
Freezing Level ◽  
Shallow Cumulus ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Rapid Ascent

Abstract Cloud-resolving numerical simulations of airflow over a diurnally heated mountain ridge are conducted to explore the mechanisms and sensitivities of convective initiation under high pressure conditions. The simulations are based on a well-observed convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) during summer 2007, where an isolated afternoon thunderstorm developed over the Black Forest mountains of central Europe, but they are idealized to facilitate understanding and reduce computational expense. In the conditionally unstable but strongly inhibited flow under consideration, sharp horizontal convergence over the mountain acts to locally weaken the inhibition and moisten the dry midtroposphere through shallow cumulus detrainment. The onset of deep convection occurs not through the deep ascent of a single updraft but rather through a rapid succession of thermals that are vented through the mountain convergence zone into the deepening cloud mass. Emerging thermals rise through the saturated wakes of their predecessors, which diminishes the suppressive effects of entrainment and allows for rapid glaciation above the freezing level as supercooled cloud drops rime onto preexisting ice particles. These effects strongly enhance the midlevel cloud buoyancy and enable rapid ascent to the tropopause. The existence and vigor of the convection is highly sensitive to small changes in background wind speed U0, which controls the strength of the mountain convergence and the ability of midlevel moisture to accumulate above the mountain. Whereas vigorous deep convection develops for U0 = 0 m s−1, deep convection is completely eliminated for U0 = 3 m s−1. Although deep convection is able to develop under intermediate winds (U0 = 1.5 m s−1), its formation is highly sensitive to small-amplitude perturbations in the initial flow.

scholarly journals Supersaturation, buoyancy, and deep convection dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 13997-14018
Author(s):  
Wojciech W. Grabowski ◽  
Hugh Morrison
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Freezing Level ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Adjustment Scheme

Abstract. Motivated by recent discussions concerning differences of convective dynamics in polluted and pristine environments, the so-called convective invigoration in particular, this paper provides an analysis of factors affecting convective updraft buoyancy, such as the in-cloud supersaturation, condensate and precipitation loading, and entrainment. We use the deep convective period from simulations of daytime convection development over land discussed in our previous publications. An entraining parcel framework is used in the theoretical analysis. We show that for the specific case considered here, finite (positive) supersaturation noticeably reduces pseudo-adiabatic parcel buoyancy and cumulative convective available potential energy (cCAPE) in the lower troposphere. This comes from keeping a small fraction of the water vapor in a supersaturated state and thus reducing the latent heating. Such a lower-tropospheric impact is comparable to the effects of condensate loading and entrainment in the idealized parcel framework. For the entire tropospheric depth, loading and entrainment have a much more significant impact on the total CAPE. For the cloud model results, we compare ensemble simulations applying either a bulk microphysics scheme with saturation adjustment or a more comprehensive double-moment scheme with supersaturation prediction. We compare deep convective updraft velocities, buoyancies, and supersaturations from all ensembles. In agreement with the parcel analysis, the saturation-adjustment scheme provides noticeably stronger updrafts in the lower troposphere. For the simulations predicting supersaturation, there are small differences between pristine and polluted conditions below the freezing level that are difficult to explain by standard analysis of the in-cloud buoyancy components. By applying the piggybacking technique, we show that the lower-tropospheric buoyancy differences between pristine and polluted simulations come from a combination of temperature (i.e., latent heating) and condensate loading differences that work together to make polluted buoyancies and updraft velocities slightly larger when compared to their pristine analogues. Overall, the effects are rather small and contradict previous claims of a significant invigoration of deep convection in polluted environments.

scholarly journals Numerical Investigations of Convective Initiation in Barbados

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Whitehall ◽  
Sen Chiao ◽  
Margarette Mayers-Als
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Resource Managers

Localized convection in Barbados accounts for hazardous conditions and a significant percentage of the island’s annual rainfall. The feature results in rainfall accumulations exceeding 50 mm in 3 hours or less, over isolated locations. Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations are conducted for a rapid convective initiated and heavy precipitation event of 26 August 2008 over Barbados. The simulation results from the 1 km grid resolution domain depict that the shallow topography on the island plays a significant role in enhancing convective activity under weak synoptically disturbed conditions. The model results also demonstrate that the driving forces for the development of deep convective clouds include low-level moisture convergence that form as a result of the temperature differential between the land and the ocean and forced low-level uplift as a result of the blocking by the topography. The high-resolution WRF simulations demonstrate its capability to accurately capture the low-level flow over the island, as well as the orientation of the divergence and convergence patterns throughout the depth of the atmosphere. These results are heartening to use the WRF as a resource for studying deep convection in Barbados for disaster managers and water resource managers.

scholarly journals An Intercomparison of UW Cloud-Top Cooling Rates with WSR-88D Radar Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 463-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Hartung ◽  
Justin M. Sieglaff ◽  
Lee M. Cronce ◽  
Wayne F. Feltz
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Cooling Rates ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Radar Signatures ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The University

Abstract The University of Wisconsin Convective Initiation (UWCI) algorithm utilizes geostationary IR satellite data to compute cloud-top cooling (UW-CTC) rates and assign CI nowcasts to vertically growing clouds. This study is motivated by National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster reviews of the algorithm output, which hypothesized that more intense cloud-top cooling corresponds to more vigorous short-term (0–60 min) convective development. An objective validation of UW-CTC rates using a satellite-based object-tracking methodology is presented, along with a prognostic evaluation of such cloud-top cooling rates for use in forecasting the growth and development of deep convection. In general, both a cloud object’s instantaneous and maximum cooling rate(s) are shown to be useful prognostic tools in predicting future radar intensification. UW-CTC rates are shown to be most skillful in detecting convective clouds that achieved intense radar signatures. The UW-CTC rate lead time ahead of the various radar fields is also shown, along with an illustration of the benefit of UW-CTC rates in operational forecasting. The results of this study suggest that convective clouds with the strongest UW-CTC rates are more likely to achieve significant near-term (0–60 min) radar signatures in such fields as composite reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid (VIL), and maximum estimated size of hail (MESH) compared to clouds that exhibit only weak UW-CTC rates.

Early Warnings of Severe Convection Using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 857-871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Tsonevsky ◽  
Charles A. Doswell ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Two Parameters

Abstract ECMWF provides the ensemble-based extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) products to facilitate forecasting severe weather in the medium range. Exploiting the ingredients-based method of forecasting deep moist convection, two parameters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a composite CAPE–shear parameter, have been recently added to the EFI/SOT, targeting severe convective weather. Verification results based on the area under the relative operating characteristic curve (ROCA) show high skill of both EFIs at discriminating between severe and nonsevere convection in the medium range over Europe and the United States. In the first 7 days of the forecast ROCA values show significant skill, staying well above the no-skill threshold of 0.5. Two case studies are presented to give some practical considerations and discuss certain limitations of the EFI/SOT forecasts and how they could be overcome. In particular, both convective EFI/SOT products are good at providing guidance for where and when severe convection is possible if there is sufficient lift for convective initiation. Probability of precipitation is suggested as a suitable ensemble product for assessing whether convection is likely to be initiated. The model climate should also be considered when determining whether severe convection is possible; EFI and SOT values are related to the climatological frequency of occurrence of deep, moist convection over a given place and time of year.

scholarly journals Thermal structure of intense convective clouds derived from GPS radio occultations

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5309-5318 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Biondi ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
S.-P. Ho ◽  
T. Neubert ◽  
S. Syndergaard
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Strong Inversion ◽  
Cloud Tops

Abstract. Thermal structure associated with deep convective clouds is investigated using Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation measurements. GPS data are insensitive to the presence of clouds, and provide high vertical resolution and high accuracy measurements to identify associated temperature behavior. Deep convective systems are identified using International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) satellite data, and cloud tops are accurately measured using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO) lidar observations; we focus on 53 cases of near-coincident GPS occultations with CALIPSO profiles over deep convection. Results show a sharp spike in GPS bending angle highly correlated to the top of the clouds, corresponding to anomalously cold temperatures within the clouds. Above the clouds the temperatures return to background conditions, and there is a strong inversion at cloud top. For cloud tops below 14 km, the temperature lapse rate within the cloud often approaches a moist adiabat, consistent with rapid undiluted ascent within the convective systems.

scholarly journals Ocean Convective Available Potential Energy. Part II: Energetics of Thermobaric Convection and Thermobaric Cabbeling

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 1097-1115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Su ◽  
Andrew P. Ingersoll ◽  
Andrew L. Stewart ◽  
Andrew F. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Center Of Mass ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
Energy Part ◽  
Different Temperatures ◽  
Simplifying Assumptions ◽  
Diabatic Processes

AbstractThe energetics of thermobaricity- and cabbeling-powered deep convection occurring in oceans with cold freshwater overlying warm salty water are investigated here. These quasi-two-layer profiles are widely observed in wintertime polar oceans. The key diagnostic is the ocean convective available potential energy (OCAPE), a concept introduced in a companion piece to this paper (Part I). For an isolated ocean column, OCAPE arises from thermobaricity and is the maximum potential energy (PE) that can be converted into kinetic energy (KE) under adiabatic vertical parcel rearrangements. This study explores the KE budget of convection using two-dimensional numerical simulations and analytical estimates. The authors find that OCAPE is a principal source for KE. However, the complete conversion of OCAPE to KE is inhibited by diabatic processes. Further, this study finds that diabatic processes produce three other distinct contributions to the KE budget: (i) a sink of KE due to the reduction of stratification by vertical mixing, which raises water column’s center of mass and thus acts to convert KE to PE; (ii) a source of KE due to cabbeling-induced shrinking of the water column’s volume when water masses with different temperatures are mixed, which lowers the water column’s center of mass and thus acts to convert PE into KE; and (iii) a reduced production of KE due to diabatic energy conversion of the KE convertible part of the PE to the KE inconvertible part of the PE. Under some simplifying assumptions, the authors also propose a theory to estimate the maximum depth of convection from an energetic perspective. This study provides a potential basis for improving the convection parameterization in ocean models.

scholarly journals A Unified Convection Scheme (UNICON). Part I: Formulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (11) ◽  
pp. 3902-3930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungsu Park
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Vertical Transport ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Convection Scheme ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Turbulent Eddies

Abstract The author develops a unified convection scheme (UNICON) that parameterizes relative (i.e., with respect to the grid-mean vertical flow) subgrid vertical transport by nonlocal asymmetric turbulent eddies. UNICON is a process-based model of subgrid convective plumes and mesoscale organized flow without relying on any quasi-equilibrium assumptions such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) or convective inhibition (CIN) closures. In combination with a relative subgrid vertical transport scheme by local symmetric turbulent eddies and a grid-scale advection scheme, UNICON simulates vertical transport of water species and conservative scalars without double counting at any horizontal resolution. UNICON simulates all dry–moist, forced–free, and shallow–deep convection within a single framework in a seamless, consistent, and unified way. It diagnoses the vertical profiles of the macrophysics (fractional area, plume radius, and number density) as well as the microphysics (production and evaporation rates of convective precipitation) and the dynamics (mass flux and vertical velocity) of multiple convective updraft and downdraft plumes. UNICON also prognoses subgrid cold pool and mesoscale organized flow within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that is forced by evaporation of convective precipitation and accompanying convective downdrafts but damped by surface flux and entrainment at the PBL top. The combined subgrid parameterization of diagnostic convective updraft and downdraft plumes, prognostic subgrid mesoscale organized flow, and the feedback among them remedies the weakness of conventional quasi-steady diagnostic plume models—the lack of plume memory across the time step—allowing UNICON to successfully simulate various transitional phenomena associated with convection (e.g., the diurnal cycle of precipitation and the Madden–Julian oscillation).

CHAOTIC GRAPH THEORY APPROACH FOR IDENTIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) PATTERNS REQUIRED FOR THE GENESIS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 413-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
SUTAPA CHAUDHURI
Keyword(s):  
Graph Theory ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Pressure Level ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Conditional Instability

Severe thunderstorms are a manifestation of deep convection. Conditional instability is known to be the mechanism by which thunderstorms are formed. The energy that drives conditional instability is convective available potential energy (CAPE), which is computed with radio sonde data at each pressure level. The purpose of the present paper is to identify the pattern or shape of CAPE required for the genesis of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata (22°32′N, 88°20′E) confined within the northeastern part (20°N to 24°N latitude, 85°E to 93°E longitude) of India. The method of chaotic graph theory is adopted for this purpose. Chaotic graphs of pressure levels and CAPE are formed for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. Ranks of the adjacency matrices constituted with the union of chaotic graphs of pressure levels and CAPE are computed for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The results reveal that the rank of the adjacency matrix is maximum for non-thunderstorm days and a column with all zeros occurs very quickly on severe thunderstorms days. This indicates that CAPE loses connectivity with pressure levels very early on severe thunderstorm days, showing that for the genesis of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata short, and therefore broad, CAPE is preferred.

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