scholarly journals A COVID-19-Based Modified Epidemiological Model and Technological Approaches to Help Vulnerable Individuals Emerge from the Lockdown in the UK

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (17) ◽  
pp. 4967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Ortega Anderez ◽  
Eiman Kanjo ◽  
Ganna Pogrebna ◽  
Omprakash Kaiwartya ◽  
Shane D. Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Smartphone Apps ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Vulnerable People ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
The Uk

COVID-19 has shown a relatively low case fatality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms. However, the severity of the disease among the elderly as well as in individuals with underlying health conditions has caused significant mortality rates worldwide. Understanding this variance amongst different sectors of society and modelling this will enable the different levels of risk to be determined to enable strategies to be applied to different groups. Long-established compartmental epidemiological models like SIR and SEIR do not account for the variability encountered in the severity of the SARS-CoV-2 disease across different population groups. The objective of this study is to investigate how a reduction in the exposure of vulnerable individuals to COVID-19 can minimise the number of deaths caused by the disease, using the UK as a case study. To overcome the limitation of long-established compartmental epidemiological models, it is proposed that a modified model, namely SEIR-v, through which the population is separated into two groups regarding their vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 is applied. This enables the analysis of the spread of the epidemic when different contention measures are applied to different groups in society regarding their vulnerability to the disease. A Monte Carlo simulation (100,000 runs) along the proposed SEIR-v model is used to study the number of deaths which could be avoided as a function of the decrease in the exposure of vulnerable individuals to the disease. The results indicate a large number of deaths could be avoided by a slight realistic decrease in the exposure of vulnerable groups to the disease. The mean values across the simulations indicate 3681 and 7460 lives could be saved when such exposure is reduced by 10% and 20% respectively. From the encouraging results of the modelling a number of mechanisms are proposed to limit the exposure of vulnerable individuals to the disease. One option could be the provision of a wristband to vulnerable people and those without a smartphone and contact-tracing app, filling the gap created by systems relying on smartphone apps only. By combining very dense contact tracing data from smartphone apps and wristband signals with information about infection status and symptoms, vulnerable people can be protected and kept safer.

A Modified Epidemiological Model to Understand the UnevenImpact of COVID-19 on Vulnerable Individuals and theApproaches Required to Help them Emerge from Lockdown (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiman Kanjo ◽  
Dario Anderez Ortega ◽  
John Hunt ◽  
Shane Johnson ◽  
Ganna Pogrebna
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Modified Epidemiological Model ◽  
Significant Mortality

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19 has shown a relatively low case fatality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms. However, the severity of the disease among the elderly as well as in individuals with underlying health conditions has caused significant mortality rates worldwide. Understanding this variance amongst different sectors of society and modelling this will enable the different levels of risk to be determined to enable strategies to be applied to different groups. Long established compartmental epidemiological models like SIR and SEIR do not account for the variability encountered in the severity of the SARS-CoV-2 disease across different population groups. To overcome this limitation, it is proposed that a modified model, namely SEIR-v, through which the population is separated into two groups regarding their vulnerability to SARS-CoV2 is applied. This enables the analysis of the spread of the epidemic when different contention measures are applied to different groups in society regarding their vulnerability to the disease. A Monte Carlo simulation adopting the proposed SEIR-v model indicates a large number of deaths could be avoided by slightly decreasing the exposure of vulnerable groups to the disease. From this modelling a number of mechanisms are proposed to limit the exposure of vulnerable individuals to the disease in order to reduce the mortality rate among this group. One option could be the provision of a wristband to vulnerable people and those without a smartphone and contact-tracing app, filling the gap created by systems relying on smartphone apps only.

scholarly journals Similarity in Case Fatality Rates (CFR) of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2 in Italy and China

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (02) ◽  
pp. 125-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rossella Porcheddu ◽  
Caterina Serra ◽  
David Kelvin ◽  
Nikki Kelvin ◽  
Salvatore Rubino
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Point Of Care ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Level Of Care ◽  
Large Clusters ◽  
Local Transmission ◽  
Potential Level

As of 28 February 2020, Italy had 888 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with most cases in Northern Italy in the Lombardia and Veneto regions. Travel-related cases were the main source of COVID-19 cases during the early stages of the current epidemic in Italy. The month of February, however, has been dominated by two large clusters of outbreaks in Northern Italy, south of Milan, with mainly local transmission the source of infections. Contact tracing has failed to identify patient zero in one of the outbreaks. As of 28 February 2020, twenty-one cases of COVID-19 have died. Comparison between case fatality rates in China and Italy are identical at 2.3. Additionally, deaths are similar in both countries with fatalities in mostly the elderly with known comorbidities. It will be important to develop point-of-care devices to aid clinicians in stratifying elderly patients as early as possible to determine the potential level of care they will require to improve their chances of survival from COVID-19 disease.

Hidden Threat During Quarantine and Transition Phase in Elderly: The Need for Special Precautions

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (10) ◽  
pp. 190-193
Author(s):  
Maggie Nathania ◽  
Diana Sunardi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Middle Age ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Severity Of The Disease

A global pandemic, COVID-19, has struck 216 countries with more than 9 million cases and 420.000 deaths. In Indonesia alone, 49.000 people have been infected with more than 2.000 deaths. To reduce the transmission rate and break the chain of transmission, various countries in the world require people to limit and mitigate activities outside the house, especially for high-risk groups: the elderly and groups with comorbidities. Although there is no age group protected from SARS-CoV-2 infection, the elderly group shows significantly higher mortality and severity of the disease when compared with young and middle age. Case fatality rate in the elderly ranges between 8% in patients aged ≥80 years, 8% in patients aged 70-79 years, and up to 49% in critical cases. Other studies also show that the average age of patients who need the intensive care unit (ICU) is older than patients who do not require ICU.

scholarly journals Near- and forecasting the SARS-COV-2 epidemic requires a global view and multiple methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daren Austin
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Global View ◽  
The Future ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Global Data

AbstractConventional epidemiological models require estimates of important parameters including incubation time and case fatality rate that may be unavailable in the early stage of an epidemic. For the ongoing SARS-COV-2 epidemic, with no previous population exposure, alternative prediction methods less reliant on assumptions may prove more effective in the near-term. We present three methods used to provide early estimates of likely SARS-COV-2 epidemic progression. During the first stage of the epidemic, growth rate charts revealed the UK, Italy and Spain as outliers, with differentially increasing growth of deaths over cases. A novel data-driven time-series model was then used to near-cast 7-day future cases and deaths with much greater precision. Finally, an epidemio-statistical model was used to bridge from near-casting to forecasting the future course of the global epidemic. By applying multiple approaches to global SARS-COV-2 data, coupled with mixed-effects methods, countries further ahead in the epidemic provide valuable information for those behind. Using current daily global data, we note convergence in near-term predictions for Italy signifying an appropriate call on the future course of the global epidemic. For the UK and elsewhere, prediction of peak and eventual time to resolution is now possible.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Epidemic in Malaysia: Epidemic Progression, Challenges, and Response

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamal Hisham Hashim ◽  
Mohammad Adam Adman ◽  
Zailina Hashim ◽  
Mohd Firdaus Mohd Radi ◽  
Soo Chen Kwan
Keyword(s):  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Nipah Virus ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Hospital System

COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest communicable disease outbreak to have hit Malaysia since the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed 34,644 people or 1% of the population of the then British Malaya. In 1999, the Nipah virus outbreak killed 105 Malaysians, while the SARS outbreak of 2003 claimed only 2 lives. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has so far claimed over 100 Malaysian lives. There were two waves of the COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. First wave of 22 cases occurred from January 25 to February 15 with no death and full recovery of all cases. The ongoing second wave, which commenced on February 27, presented cases in several clusters, the biggest of which was the Sri Petaling Tabligh cluster with an infection rate of 6.5%, and making up 47% of all cases in Malaysia. Subsequently, other clusters appeared from local mass gatherings and imported cases of Malaysians returning from overseas. Healthcare workers carry high risks of infection due to the daily exposure and management of COVID-19 in the hospitals. However, 70% of them were infected through community transmission and not while handling patients. In vulnerable groups, the incidence of COVID-19 cases was highest among the age group 55 to 64 years. In terms of fatalities, 63% were reported to be aged above 60 years, and 81% had chronic comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and heart diseases. The predominant COVID-19 strain in Malaysia is strain B, which is found exclusively in East Asia. However, strain A, which is mostly found in the USA and Australia, and strain C in Europe were also present. To contain the epidemic, Malaysia implemented a Movement Control Order (MCO) beginning on March 18 in 4 phases over 2 months, ending on May 12. In terms of economic impacts, Malaysia lost RM2.4 billion a day during the MCO period, with an accumulated loss of RM63 billion up to the end of April. Since May 4, Malaysia has relaxed the MCO and opened up its economic sector to relieve its economic burden. Currently, the best approach to achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 is through vaccination rather than by acquiring it naturally. There are at least two candidate vaccines which have reached the final stage of human clinical trials. Malaysia's COVID-19 case fatality rate is lower than what it is globally; this is due to the successful implementation of early preparedness and planning, the public health and hospital system, comprehensive contact tracing, active case detection, and a strict enhanced MCO.

Clinico-Haematological Alterations in Goats Affected with Ruminal Acidosis

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Chavelikar ◽  
G. C. Mandali ◽  
D. M. Patel
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Nasal Discharge ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Ruminal Acidosis ◽  
Reduced Body ◽  
Muscle Twitching ◽  
Haematological Profile ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Severity Of The Disease

Ruminal acidosis is one of the most important clinical emergencies in sheep and goats resulting into high mortality rate. In the present study, eight healthy farm goats and 24 goats presented to the TVCC of the college with clinical signs of ruminal acidosis like anorexia, tympany, increased pulse and respiratory rate, reduced body temperature, doughy rumen, enteritis, oliguria, grinding of teeth, purulent nasal discharge, muscle twitching, arched back, dehydration and recumbency with rumen liquor pH below 6 were examined for haematological alterations using autohaematoanalyzer. Among various haematological parameters evaluated from acidotic goats, the mean values of Hb (12.21±0.17 vs. 10.86±0.15 g/dl), TEC (14.28±0.16 vs. 12.04±0.36 ×106/ μl), TLC (13.43±0.11 vs. 11.11±0.27 ×103/μl), PCV (36.91±0.53 vs. 29.88±0.55%), neutrophils (64.54±0.93 vs. 28.13±0.92%), MCV (23.38±0.37 vs. 19.38±1.34 fl) and MCH (7.03±0.08 vs. 6.31±0.25 pg) were found significantly increased, while the mean values of lymphocytes (28.00±0.82 vs. 65.38±0.80%) and MCHC (24.55 ±0.26 vs. 34.88±0.97 g/dl) were decreased significantly from the base values of healthy goats. It was concluded that ruminal acidosis induced due to accidental heavy ingestion of readily fermentable carbohydrate rich grains and food waste significantly altered the haematological profile concurrent with clinical manifestations in goats, and hence can be used to assess the severity of the disease.

Development of a Mobile Time Banking system on Blockchain (MTBB) for Community Elderly Care (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hungyi Chen ◽  
Yuan-Chia Chu ◽  
Feipei Lai
Keyword(s):  
Care Service ◽  
Elderly Care ◽  
Banking System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Community Services ◽  
The Other ◽  
Smartphone App ◽  
Smartphone Apps ◽  
Member Service ◽  
Blockchain Technology

BACKGROUND Time banking is a good mechanism to provide elderly care in community services with members having mutual benefits, besides social welfare and out-of-pocket fee payment mechanisms. With further integration with off-line works, mobile time banking may provide a better way, compared to traditional web access. On the other hand, blockchain technology has been long encountering difficulty in integrating with real-world economies or activities. Development of a mobile time banking system on blockchain (MTBB) may provide a realistic solution for community elderly care. Besides, the tracking mechanism from blockchain technology itself may also help track the elderly care service transaction records in order to measure better Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by United Nations (UN). OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to develop the MTBB, which enables tracking service transaction records in community elderly care through mutual helps. METHODS The MTBB was developed to empower organizations, either Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) organizations, or Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), to issue time tokens of their proprietary token types to the members who participate in the volunteer activities organized by the organizations respectively. In the service activities, members sign in and sign out before and after the services by using a smartphone app, and then get the time tokens afterwards. Members with time tokens can then exchange time tokens for elderly care services using the same smartphone app. MultiChain is used as the blockchain technology stack, as one of its features to support multiple token types is critical. RESULTS Database applications with smartphone apps integrated with MultiChain were developed. The whole set of the database schema was integrated with two smartphone apps, one for members, and the other for organizations, in addition to the two backend operations modules, one for organizations, and the other for managing all organizations and members. The MultiChain wallet was also integrated into the member app, as well as the organization backend modules for keeping track of the service transactions and time tokens. Metadata with the service transaction information is stored in the MultiChain blocks so that the transaction records are immutable and can thus be analyzed in the future. CONCLUSIONS The twelve characteristics of Cahn’s time banking are the guidelines of developing this MTBB with integration of MultiChain blockchain technology for tracking service transaction records. The study also combines the 1-to-1 member service exchange with organizations holding volunteer activities and issuing proprietary time tokens. With the blockchain transaction tracking mechanism, all of the elderly care service records through or within organizations can be tracked and analyzed to align with UN’s five SDGs.

scholarly journals Role of efficient testing and contact tracing in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic: a network modelling study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. e045886
Author(s):  
Yiying Hu ◽  
Jianying Guo ◽  
Guanqiao Li ◽  
Xi Lu ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
World Data ◽  
Quantitative Evidence

ObjectivesThis study quantified how the efficiency of testing and contact tracing impacts the spread of COVID-19. The average time interval between infection and quarantine, whether asymptomatic cases are tested or not, and initial delays to beginning a testing and tracing programme were investigated.SettingWe developed a novel individual-level network model, called CoTECT (Testing Efficiency and Contact Tracing model for COVID-19), using key parameters from recent studies to quantify the impacts of testing and tracing efficiency. The model distinguishes infection from confirmation by integrating a ‘T’ compartment, which represents infections confirmed by testing and quarantine. The compartments of presymptomatic (E), asymptomatic (I), symptomatic (Is), and death with (F) or without (f) test confirmation were also included in the model. Three scenarios were evaluated in a closed population of 3000 individuals to mimic community-level dynamics. Real-world data from four Nordic countries were also analysed.Primary and secondary outcome measuresSimulation result: total/peak daily infections and confirmed cases, total deaths (confirmed/unconfirmed by testing), fatalities and the case fatality rate. Real-world analysis: confirmed cases and deaths per million people.Results(1) Shortening the duration between Is and T from 12 to 4 days reduces infections by 85.2% and deaths by 88.8%. (2) Testing and tracing regardless of symptoms reduce infections by 35.7% and deaths by 46.2% compared with testing only symptomatic cases. (3) Reducing the delay to implementing a testing and tracing programme from 50 to 10 days reduces infections by 35.2% and deaths by 44.6%. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. An analysis of real-world data showed that tests per case early in the pandemic are critical for reducing confirmed cases and the fatality rate.ConclusionsReducing testing delays will help to contain outbreaks. These results provide policymakers with quantitative evidence of efficiency as a critical value in developing testing and contact tracing strategies.

scholarly journals THE VALUE OF ROBUST STATISTICAL FORECASTS IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 19-43
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Castle ◽  
Jurgen A. Doornik ◽  
David F. Hendry
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Measurement ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Changing Trends ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Uk

The Covid-19 pandemic has put forecasting under the spotlight, pitting epidemiological models against extrapolative time-series devices. We have been producing real-time short-term forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths using robust statistical models since 20 March 2020. The forecasts are adaptive to abrupt structural change, a major feature of the pandemic data due to data measurement errors, definitional and testing changes, policy interventions, technological advances and rapidly changing trends. The pandemic has also led to abrupt structural change in macroeconomic outcomes. Using the same methods, we forecast aggregate UK unemployment over the pandemic. The forecasts rapidly adapt to the employment policies implemented when the UK entered the first lockdown. The difference between our statistical and theory based forecasts provides a measure of the effect of furlough policies on stabilising unemployment, establishing useful scenarios had furlough policies not been implemented.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in comparison with other emerging viral diseases: risk of geographic spread via travel

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Wilder-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Geographic Spread ◽  
Emerging Viral Diseases

Abstract Purpose of review The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major global health threat. The rapid spread was facilitated by air travel although rigorous travel bans and lockdowns were able to slow down the spread. How does COVID-19 compare with other emerging viral diseases of the past two decades? Recent findings Viral outbreaks differ in many ways, such as the individuals most at risk e.g. pregnant women for Zika and the elderly for COVID-19, their vectors of transmission, their fatality rate, and their transmissibility often measured as basic reproduction number. The risk of geographic spread via air travel differs significantly between emerging infectious diseases. Summary COVID-19 is not associated with the highest case fatality rate compared with other emerging viral diseases such as SARS and Ebola, but the combination of a high reproduction number, superspreading events and a globally immunologically naïve population has led to the highest global number of deaths in the past 20 decade compared to any other pandemic.

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