Climatic Suitability of the Geographic Distribution of Stipa breviflora in Chinese Temperate Grassland under Climate Change

Stipa breviflora, a dominant species of Chinese temperate grassland, is vulnerable to climate change. A quantitative description of the changes in the geographic distribution of S. breviflora under climate change can provide a reference for potential changes in Chinese temperate grassland and the necessary countermeasures to cope with climate change. In this study, the relationship between the geographic distribution of S. breviflora and the climate, and its inter-decadal change in geographic distribution and climatic suitability from 1961 to 2040 were investigated. The results showed that S. breviflora’s geographic distribution could be simulated very well by the MaxEnt model, and its climatic suitability could be divided into four levels—most suitable, medium suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable areas—based on its existence probability from the MaxEnt model. In the past 50 years, the total climate-suitable area for S. breviflora’s potential geographical distribution exhibited an obvious increase and a trend of northward expansion, which was larger than the current distribution area. The total climate-suitable area would increase by about 6.7% and decrease by 11.5% from 2011–2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively; however, the most suitable area increased and moved to western areas of Tibet, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The results revealed that the distribution area of S. breviflora still has greater potential for expansion.

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Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus Based on Species Redundancy

10.22541/au.163299108.87031097/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jian Chen ◽

Yuan Feng ◽

Wu Kui ◽

Dai Dong ◽

Wang Dong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Distribution Pattern ◽

Host Plants ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Range Shift ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Pattern Similarity ◽

Caterpillar Fungus ◽

Suitable Area

The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds. We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area (HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m (2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution. The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to distribution expansion of the CCF.

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MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12060752 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 752

Author(s):

Yichen Zhou ◽

Zengxin Zhang ◽

Bin Zhu ◽

Xuefei Cheng ◽

Liu Yang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Critical Role ◽

Cunninghamia Lanceolata ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Timber Species ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

The Future ◽

Suitable Area

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% of the overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays a critical role in soil and water conservation; however, its suitability is subject to climate change. For this study, the appropriate distribution area of C. lanceolata was analyzed using the MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed that (1) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the mean diurnal range (bio2) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of C. lanceolata; (2) the currently suitable areas of C. lanceolata were primarily distributed along the southern coastal areas of China, of which 55% were moderately so, while only 18% were highly suitable; (3) the projected suitable area of C. lanceolata would likely expand based on the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs spanning 2041–2060. The increased area estimated for the future ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 million km2, where the total suitable area of C. lanceolata attained a maximum value of 2.50 million km2 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a lowest value of 2.39 million km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) in combination with land use and farmland protection policies of China, it is estimated that more than 60% of suitable land area could be utilized for C. lanceolata planting from 2041–2060 under different SSP scenarios. Although climate change is having an increasing influence on species distribution, the deleterious impacts of anthropogenic activities cannot be ignored. In the future, further attention should be paid to the investigation of species distribution under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities.

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Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

Plants ◽

10.3390/plants9081015 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (8) ◽

pp. 1015

Author(s):

Xiaotao Huang ◽

Li Ma ◽

Chunbo Chen ◽

Huakun Zhou ◽

Buqing Yao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Habitat Destruction ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Co2 Concentrations ◽

River Region ◽

Temperature Seasonality

Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km2, accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from −5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041–2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km2) > RCP45 (6017 km2) > RCP80 (4238 km2) > RCP60 (2505 km2). In future (2061–2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km2) > RCP60 (11,977 km2) > RCP45 (10,354 km2) > RCP80 (7539 km2). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.

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Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects12100874 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 874

Author(s):

Jinyue Song ◽

Hua Zhang ◽

Ming Li ◽

Wuhong Han ◽

Yuxin Yin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Factors ◽

Solenopsis Invicta ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Fire Ant ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

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Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genusTityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina

10.7287/peerj.preprints.2829 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Martinez ◽

Mayane A Andrade ◽

Claudio Juan Bidau

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Temporal Pattern ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Buenos Aires Province ◽

Accident Risk ◽

Human Beings ◽

Risk Maps ◽

The Impact

BACKGROUND: The knowledge of the factors that affect the geographic distribution of species permits us to infer where they can be found. Human beings, through the expansion of their own distribution area and their contribution to climate alteration have modified the geographic distribution of other biological species. As a consequence, the temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is being modified. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic along time. The aim of this work was to analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution constructing risk maps. METHODS: Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we constructed risk maps for the analyzed species. RESULTS: Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina, showed significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated federal district in Argentina thus liable to become the one most affected by T. trivittatus. DISCUSSION: Then, these alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies.

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Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distributions of Codonopsis pilosula in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution ◽

10.3389/fevo.2021.773396 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Huyong Yan ◽

Jiao He ◽

Xiaochuan Xu ◽

Xinyu Yao ◽

Guoyin Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Distribution Area ◽

Last Interglacial ◽

Modeling Tools ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Codonopsis Pilosula ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Suitable Area ◽

The Impact

Species distribution models are widely used in conservation biology and invasive biology. MaxEnt models are the most widely used models among the existing modeling tools. In the MaxEnt modeling process, the default parameters are used most often to build the model. However, these models tend to be overfit. Aiming at this problem, this study uses an optimized MaxEnt model to analyze the impact of past, present and future climate on the distributions of Codonopsis pilosula, an economic species, to provide a theoretical basis for its introduction and cultivation. Based on 264 distribution records and eight environmental variables, the potential distribution areas of C. pilosula in the last interglacial, middle Holocene and current periods and 2050 and 2070 were simulated. Combined with the percentage contribution, permutation importance, and jackknife test, the environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution area of this species were discussed. The results show that the parameters of the optimal model are: the regularization multiplier is 1.5, and the feature combination is LQHP (linear, quadratic, hinge, product). The main temperature factors affecting the distribution of C. pilosula are the annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and isothermality. The main precipitation factors are the precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the wettest quarter, and precipitation in the driest quarter, among which the annual average temperature contributes the most to the distribution area of this species. With climate warming, the suitable area of C. pilosula exhibits a northward expansion trend. It is estimated that in 2070, the suitable area of this species will expand to its maximum, reaching 2.5108 million square kilometers. The highly suitable areas of C. pilosula are mainly in Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan Provinces. Our findings can be used to provide theoretical support related to avoiding the blind introduction of C. pilosula.

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Identifying Potentially Climatic Suitability Areas for Arma custos (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China under Climate Change

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects11100674 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 674

Author(s):

Shiyu Fan ◽

Chao Chen ◽

Qing Zhao ◽

Jiufeng Wei ◽

Hufang Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spodoptera Frugiperda ◽

Future Application ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Optimal Range ◽

Forest Pests ◽

The North ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Major Factors ◽

Suitable Area

Spodoptera frugiperda is a notorious pest that feeds on more than 80 crops, and has spread over 100 countries. Many biological agents have been employed to regulate it, such as Arma custos. A. custos is a polyphagous predatory heteropteran, which can effectively suppress several agricultural and forest pests. Thus, in order to understand where A. custos can survive and where can be released, MaxEnt was used to predict the potentially suitable areas for A. custos in China under climate change conditions. The results show that the annual mean temperature (bio1) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the major factors influencing the distribution of A. custos. The optimal range of the two are 7.5 to 15 °C, 750 to 1200 mm, respectively. The current climate is highly suitable for A. custos in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces. Under the future climatic scenarios, the suitable area will decrease and shift towards the north. Overall, this result can provide a reference framework for future application of A. custos for biological control.

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Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genusTityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina

10.7287/peerj.preprints.2829v1 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Martinez ◽

Mayane A Andrade ◽

Claudio Juan Bidau

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Temporal Pattern ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Buenos Aires Province ◽

Accident Risk ◽

Human Beings ◽

Risk Maps ◽

The Impact

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Effects of climate change on the distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata

10.22541/au.163253295.59246689/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jun-Ming Zhang ◽

Xiang-Yong Peng ◽

Min-Li Song ◽

Zhen-Jian Li ◽

Xin-Qiao Xu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Evolutionary Relationship ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Gas Emission ◽

The Impact

Understanding the impacts and constraints of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata is crucial for its sustainable management and economic development as a medicinal material or fruit. In this study, according to the first-hand information obtained on-the-spot investigation, the geographic distribution and response to climate factors of Akebia trifoliata were studied by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The genetic diversity and population structure of 21 natural populations of Akebia trifoliata were studied by SSR markers. The results showed that precipitation and temperature were the two most important climatic factors that restrict the geographic distribution of Akebia trifoliata. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable growth regions of Akebia trifoliata in China were 91.7-121.9 °E and 21.6-37.5 °N. Combined with the evolutionary relationship and prediction results, 21 populations of Akebia trifoliata tended to migrate to the north. In the scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) of higher greenhouse gas emission concentration, the distribution area of Akebia trifoliata continued to expand, while in the low concentration greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), the distribution area of Akebia trifoliata remained stable. The distribution center of Akebia trifoliata in China will shift to high latitude regions with the increase of temperature in the future. The results evaluated the impact of climate factors on the spatial distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata, displayed the possible changes of geographical distribution of Akebia trifoliata under different climate scenarios, and provided scientific evidence for durative protection and supervise of Akebia trifoliata.

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Two Varieties of Litsea coreana (Leopard-Skin Camphor) in China under Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11111159 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 1159

Author(s):

Jinwen Pan ◽

Xin Fan ◽

Siqiong Luo ◽

Yaqin Zhang ◽

Shan Yao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Raw Material ◽

Vegetation Growth ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

Huai River ◽

Suitable Area

Climate change considerably affects vegetation growth and may lead to changes in vegetation distribution. Leopard-skin camphor is an endangered species, and the main raw material for hawk tea, and has various pharmacodynamic functions. Studying the potential distribution of two leopard-skin camphor varieties under climate change should assist in the effective protection of these species. We collected the distribution point data for 130 and 89 Litsea coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa, respectively, and data for 22 environmental variables. We also predicted the potential distribution of the two varieties in China using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Results showed that the two varieties are mainly located in the subtropical area south of the Qinling Mountains–Huai River line in the current and future climate scenarios, and the potentially suitable area for L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa is larger than that of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis. Compared with current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable areas of the two leopard-skin camphor varieties will move to high-latitude and -altitude areas and the total suitable area will increase slightly, while moderately and highly suitable areas will be significantly reduced under future climatic scenarios. For example, under a 2070-RCP8.5 (representative of a high greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2070s) climatic scenario, the highly suitable areas of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa are 6900 and 300 km2, and account for only 10.27% and 0.21% of the current area, respectively. Temperature is the key environmental factor affecting the potential distribution of the two varieties, especially the mean daily diurnal range (Bio2) and the min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The results can provide a reference for relevant departments in taking protective measures to prevent the decrease or extinction of the species under climate change.

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