scholarly journals Statistical Estimates of the Pulsar Glitch Activity

Universe ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Alessandro Montoli ◽  
Marco Antonelli ◽  
Brynmor Haskell ◽  
Pierre Pizzochero

A common way to calculate the glitch activity of a pulsar is an ordinary linear regression of the observed cumulative glitch history. This method however is likely to underestimate the errors on the activity, as it implicitly assumes a (long-term) linear dependence between glitch sizes and waiting times, as well as equal variance, i.e., homoscedasticity, in the fit residuals, both assumptions that are not well justified from pulsar data. In this paper, we review the extrapolation of the glitch activity parameter and explore two alternatives: the relaxation of the homoscedasticity hypothesis in the linear fit and the use of the bootstrap technique. We find a larger uncertainty in the activity with respect to that obtained by ordinary linear regression, especially for those objects in which it can be significantly affected by a single glitch. We discuss how this affects the theoretical upper bound on the moment of inertia associated with the region of a neutron star containing the superfluid reservoir of angular momentum released in a stationary sequence of glitches. We find that this upper bound is less tight if one considers the uncertainty on the activity estimated with the bootstrap method and allows for models in which the superfluid reservoir is entirely in the crust.

1986 ◽  
Vol 16 (S1) ◽  
pp. S99-S113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Ashe

AbstractThe variance of statistical estimates of outstanding claim payments for long-tailed general insurance portfolios is examined. The variance's three components are discussed. As there is no accepted technique for measuring this variance three methods are investigated empirically for its measurement—a parametric method, the jackknife method, and the bootstrap method. No method stands out as superior to the others and it is recommended that all three be evaluated and used to gauge the possible errors in the estimation of outstanding claims.


d'CARTESIAN ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Mitha Febby R. Donggori ◽  
Adi Setiawan ◽  
Hanna Arini Parhusip

Abstract The Consumer Price Index is used as a measure of inflation. Consumer Price Index data is time series data are often not stationary, causing decision-making related to the data becomes invalid. Consumer Price Index has a different rate of change in each region, as well as for the city of Jayapura, Sorong and Manokwari in Papua. In this paper, Error Correction Model is used to correct short-term imbalances and establish a long term relationship models Consumer Price Index cities - cities in Papua. We use time period : January 2009 to May 2013. To test stationarity  of the data, we use Phillips - Perron unit root test. Engle - Granger cointegration test is performed to determine whether there is a long-term relationship among cities in Papua. Furthermore, the model established by using the Error Correction Method by Domowitz - Elbadawi to correct short- term imbalances and establish long-term relationships model. The obtained Error Correction Models were compared to the results obtained with the bootstrap method . . Keywords : consumer price index, stationarity test, co integration test, error correction model, the bootstrap method Abstrak Indeks Harga Konsumen digunakan sebagai tolok ukur inflasi. Data Indeks Harga Konsumen merupakan data runtun waktu yang seringkali tidak stasioner sehingga menyebabkan pengambilan keputusan yang berkaitan dengan data menjadi tidak valid. Indeks Harga Konsumen memiliki tingkat perubahan yang berbeda di setiap daerah, begitu juga untuk kota Jayapura, Sorong dan Manokwari di Papua. Model koreksi kesalahan digunakan untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek dan membentuk model hubungan jangka panjang Indeks Harga Konsumen kota – kota di Papua pada makalah ini. Periode waktu yang diamati adalah bulan Januari 2009 sampai dengan bulan Mei 2013. Uji stasioneritas data dengan uji akar unit Phillips-Perron, uji kointegrasi Engle-Granger yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya hubungan jangka panjang di antara kota – kota tersebut. Lebih lanjut, dibentuk model koreksi kesalahan dengan metode Domowitz-Elbadawi untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek dan membentuk model hubungan jangka panjang. Model koreksi kesalahan yang diperoleh dibandingkan dengan hasil yang diperoleh dengan metode bootstrap.   Kata kunci: indeks harga konsumen, uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi, model koreksi kesalahan, metode bootstrap


Author(s):  
Oscar D. Guillamondegui

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a serious epidemic in the United States. It affects patients of all ages, race, and socioeconomic status (SES). The current care of these patients typically manifests after sequelae have been identified after discharge from the hospital, long after the inciting event. The purpose of this article is to introduce the concept of identification and management of the TBI patient from the moment of injury through long-term care as a multidisciplinary approach. By promoting an awareness of the issues that develop around the acutely injured brain and linking them to long-term outcomes, the trauma team can initiate care early to alter the effect on the patient, family, and community. Hopefully, by describing the care afforded at a trauma center and by a multidisciplinary team, we can bring a better understanding to the armamentarium of methods utilized to treat the difficult population of TBI patients.


Author(s):  
Sergey Kovalenko

The management of surface watercourses is an urgent scientific task. The article presents the results of statistical processing of long-term monthly data of field observations of hydrological and hydrochemical parameters along the Upper Yerga small river in the Vologda region. Sampling estimates of statistical parameters are obtained, autocorrelation and correlation analyzes are performed. The limiting periods from the point of view of pollution for water receivers receiving wastewater from drained agricultural areas are identified.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-28
Author(s):  
Sunardi Sunardi ◽  
Dina Fitria Murad

BINUS Center is the informal educational institution that organizes IT and language training. Inrecent years the revenue BINUS Center continues to decrease, it is evident from the outlet  BINUS Center decreased from year to year. The purpose of making this research is to make strategy planning Business & ICT, create new models of learning supported by ICT strategy,test and measure the results obtained, and then made some strategic ideas at the moment and will come in the form of short-term priorities, medium and long term. The result is a cost that can be in the efficiency, a more flexible, first-class runs with a minimal number of participants, participant satisfaction, and competitive advantage.  Keywords: business strategy, ICT strategy, business process improvement, priority.


Author(s):  
Дмитрий Валериевич Судаков ◽  
Олег Валериевич Судаков ◽  
Людмила Валентиновна Кретинина ◽  
Наталья Владимировна Якушева ◽  
Артём Николаевич Шевцов

Статья посвящена построению прогноза эффективности реконструктивных вмешательств на магистральных нервах предплечья в зависимости от протяженности дефекта нервной ткани и особенностей последующего периода реабилитации пациентов. Данная тематика является весьма актуальной, так как с каждым годом во всем мире наблюдается определенный рост случаев травм различного генеза магистральных нервных стволов, которые затем нередко приводят к временной нетрудоспособности и даже инвалидности пациентов. Реконструктивная микрохирургия многие десятилетия пытается решить целый ряд проблем аутотрансплантации нервных стволов и повысить ее общую эффективность. Но из-за определенных проблем связанных с финансированием, некоторые вопросы трансплантологии и реабилитации остаются нерешенными и в настоящий момент. Все это придает представленной работе важное значение не только медицинского, но и социально - экономического плана. Целью работы стала попытка построения прогноза восстановительных операций на нервной ткани, с учетом объема пораженных структур и периода реабилитации. Объектами исследования стало 180 больных, которым по той или иной причине, осуществлялась реконструктивная операция на одном из магистральных нервов предплечья. Все пациенты были разделены на 3 группы по 60 человек, в зависимости от протяженности дефекта магистрального нерва: до 4 см, от 4 до 8 см и от 8 до 12 см. Последующее разделение внутри каждой группы на подгруппы производилось в зависимости от определенного поврежденного нерва (лучевой, локтевой, срединный). В работе изучалось течение раннего послеоперационного воспалительного процесса, с определением бактериальной микрофлоры в ране. Изучались и отдаленные последствия оперативного вмешательства. Своеобразной новизной для данной тематики в целом, стало выявление последующего установления инвалидности пациентов. Кроме того, важные данные были получены и по срокам реабилитации и частичного или полного восстановления утраченных функций по срокам в зависимости от размеров восстанавливаемого дефекта и от наличия или отсутствия необходимой реабилитации. Полученные в работе данные могут представлять интерес не только для врачей хирургов и травматологов, но и для организаторов здравоохранения, позволяя производить прогнозы по выздоровлению пациентов в каждой определенной клинической ситуации The article is devoted to the construction of a forecast of the effectiveness of reconstructive interventions on the main nerves of the forearm, depending on the length of the defect in the nervous tissue and the characteristics of the subsequent period of rehabilitation of patients. This topic is very relevant, since every year all over the world there is a certain increase in cases of injuries of various origins of the main nerve trunks, which then often lead to temporary disability and even disability of patients. For many decades, reconstructive microsurgery has been trying to solve a number of problems of autotransplantation of nerve trunks and improve its overall efficiency. But due to certain problems associated with funding, some issues of transplantation and rehabilitation remain unresolved at the moment. All this gives the presented work important not only medical, but also socio - economic importance. The aim of this work was to attempt to predict restorative operations on the nervous tissue, taking into account the volume of the affected structures and the period of rehabilitation. The objects of the study were 180 patients who, for one reason or another, underwent a reconstructive operation on one of the main nerves of the forearm. All patients were divided into 3 groups of 60 people, depending on the length of the main nerve defect: up to 4 cm, from 4 to 8 cm, and from 8 to 12 cm. Subsequent division within each group into subgroups was performed depending on the specific damaged nerve ( radial, ulnar, median). The work studied the course of the early postoperative inflammatory process, with the determination of bacterial microflora in the wound. The long-term consequences of surgery were also studied. A peculiar novelty for this topic as a whole was the identification of the subsequent establishment of disability in patients. In addition, important data were obtained on the timing of rehabilitation and partial or complete restoration of lost functions in terms of timing, depending on the size of the restored defect and on the presence or absence of the necessary rehabilitation. The data obtained in this work may be of interest not only for surgeons and traumatologists, but also for healthcare organizers, allowing them to make predictions about the recovery of patients in each specific clinical situation


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6313
Author(s):  
Ramona Ciolac ◽  
Tiberiu Iancu ◽  
Ioan Brad ◽  
Tabita Adamov ◽  
Nicoleta Mateoc-Sîrb

The agritourism activity can be a characteristic reality of the present, considering rural area’s sustainability, being at the same time a business reality for rural entrepreneurs and a “must have” for rural communities that have tourism potential. It is a form of tourism, through which the tourist can receive a qualitative product at a reasonable price, but also a field that can ensure sustainable development over time, being at the same time environmentally friendly. The purpose of this scientific paper is to identify the aspects that make agritourism “a possible business reality of the moment”, for Romanian rural area’s sustainability. We take into account the following areas: Bran-Moieciu area—considered “the oldest” in terms of agritourism experience, and Apuseni Mountains area, with a great inclination and potential for this activity. The study conducted for these two areas is focused on several aspects: the degree of involvement in agritourism activities, considering the number of years and managerial experience, the analysis of the types of activities/experiences offered by agritourism structures, the identification of the main reasons/motivations for the orientation towards agritourism and the manner in which this field is perceived. Aspects related to the marketing-finance part of the agritourism business are also taken into account: customers, distribution channels, financial sources, shortcomings observed by agritourism business owners and possible action directions so as to improve the activity/agritourism product. Agritourism may be “a possible business reality of the moment” for the studied areas and not only, but in the future, the entrepreneur/farmer must be constantly updated because of the changing situations that appear on the market, be able to make sustainable decisions for his/her own business, which in the future will ensure its viability and obviously its long-term profitability and development, and in the same time rural area’s sustainability.


2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-278
Author(s):  
Adrián González Casanova ◽  
Juan Carlos Pardo ◽  
José Luis Pérez

AbstractIn this paper, we introduce a family of processes with values on the nonnegative integers that describes the dynamics of populations where individuals are allowed to have different types of interactions. The types of interactions that we consider include pairwise interactions, such as competition, annihilation, and cooperation; and interactions among several individuals that can be viewed as catastrophes. We call such families of processes branching processes with interactions. Our aim is to study their long-term behaviour under a specific regime of the pairwise interaction parameters that we introduce as the subcritical cooperative regime. Under such a regime, we prove that a process in this class comes down from infinity and has a moment dual which turns out to be a jump-diffusion that can be thought as the evolution of the frequency of a trait or phenotype, and whose parameters have a classical interpretation in terms of population genetics. The moment dual is an important tool for characterizing the stationary distribution of branching processes with interactions whenever such a distribution exists; it is also an interesting object in its own right.


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