scholarly journals Simulation of Climate Change Impact on A Coastal Aquifer under Arid Climate. The Tadjourah Aquifer (Republic of Djibouti, Horn of Africa)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moumtaz Razack ◽  
Mohamed Jalludin ◽  
Abdourahman Houmed-Gaba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seawater Intrusion ◽  
Coastal Aquifer ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Intensive Exploitation ◽  
The Impact

The Republic of Djibouti has an area of 23,000 km2, a coastline 370 km long and a population of 820,000 inhabitants. It experiences an arid climate characterized by high daytime temperatures and low and irregular rainfall (average of 140 mm/year), resulting in continuous periods of drought. These difficult climatic conditions and the absence of perennial surface water have progressively led to an intensive exploitation of groundwater to meet increasing water demands in all sectors (drinking water, agriculture and industries). In coastal areas, seawater intrusion constitutes a significant additional risk of groundwater degradation. This study is focused on the coastal aquifer of Tadjourah which supplies water to the city of Tadjourah, currently comprising 21,000 inhabitants. The main objective of this work is to assess the current resources of this aquifer; its capacity to satisfy, or not, the projected water demands during coming years; and to analyze its vulnerability to seawater intrusion within the frame of climate change. Three RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathway) were used to simulate different climate scenarios up to 2100. The simulated rainfall series allowed to deduce the aquifer recharge up to 2100. The code Seawat was used to model seawater intrusion into the aquifer, using the recharge data deduced from the climate scenarios. The results indicate that the risk of contamination of the Tadjourah coastal aquifer by seawater intrusion is high. The long-term and sustainable exploitation of this aquifer must take into consideration the impact of climate change.

Impact of climate change on soil erosion and the efficiency of soil conservation practices in Austria

2010 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. KLIK ◽  
J. EITZINGER
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe goal of the present study was to assess the impact of selected soil protection measures on soil erosion and retention of rainwater in a 1·14 km2 watershed used for agriculture in the north-east of Austria. Watershed conditions under conventional tillage (CT), no-till (NT) and under grassland use were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model. The period 1961–90 was used as a reference and results were compared to future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2 (2040–60).The simulations for the NT and grassland options suggested runoff would decrease by 38 and 75%, respectively, under the current climatic conditions. The simulation results suggest that, under future climate scenarios, the effectiveness of the selected soil conservation measures with respect to runoff will be similar, or decreased by 16–53%.The actual average net soil losses in the watershed varied from 2·57 t/ha/yr for conventional soil management systems to 0.01 t/ha/yr for grassland. This corresponds to a maximum average annual loss of about 0·2 mm, which is considered to be the average annual soil formation rate and therefore an acceptable soil loss. The current soil/land use does not exceed this limit, with most of the erosion occurring during spring time. Under future climate scenarios, the simulations suggested that CT would either decrease soil erosion by up to 55% or increase it by up to 56%. Under these conditions, the acceptable limits will partly be exceeded. The simulations of NT suggested this would reduce annual soil loss rates (compared to CT) to 0·2 and 1·4 t/ha, i.e. about the same or slightly higher than for NT under actual conditions. The simulation of conversion to grassland suggested soil erosion was almost completely prevented.The selected soil conservation methods maintain their protective effect on soil resources, independent of the climate scenario. Therefore, with small adaptations, they can also be recommended as sustainable soil/land management systems under future climatic conditions.However, based on the available climate scenarios, climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainstorms were only considered in a limited way in the present work. As the general future trend indicates a strong increase of rainstorms with high intensity during summer months, the results of the present study may be too optimistic.

scholarly journals Odour Impact Assessment in a Changing Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Piringer ◽  
Werner Knauder ◽  
Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer ◽  
Ivonne Anders ◽  
Konrad Andre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stability Classification ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

(1) Background: The impact of odour sources as stock farms on neighbouring residential areas might increase in the future because the relevant climatic parameters will be modified due to climate change. (2) Methodology: Separation distances are calculated for two Central European sites with considerable livestock activity influenced by different orographic and climatic conditions. Furthermore, two climate scenarios are considered, namely, the time period 1981–2010 (present climate) and the period 2036–2065 (future climate). Based on the provided climatic parameters, stability classes are derived as input for local-scale air pollution modelling. The separation distances are determined using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model LASAT. (3) Results: Main findings comprise the changes of stability classes between the present and the future climate and the resulting changes in the modelled odour impact. Model results based on different schemes for stability classification are compared. With respect to the selected climate scenarios and the variety of the stability schemes, a bandwidth of affected separation distances results. (4) Conclusions: The investigation reveals to what extent livestock husbandry will have to adapt to climate change, e.g., with impacts on today’s licensing processes.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals Assessing the Uncertainty of Hydropower-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2114
Author(s):  
Yuni Xu ◽  
Yu Hui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Optimal Operation ◽  
Environmental Conflict ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Environmental Conflict Resolution ◽  
Decision Behaviors

To balance the water demands of different departments and produce a win–win result for reservoir operation, a series of conflict-resolution methods have been developed to define the socio-optimal operation strategy for specific conflict problems. However, given the inherent uncertainty of reservoir operation brought by climate change, the compromised strategies selected by conflict-resolution methods can vary. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of climate change on the decision characteristics of conflict-resolution methods can help to address questions about whether conflict-resolution decisions are sustainable given unforeseen changes. In this study, the Yangtze River is regarded as study area. As a world-class hydropower project located on the midstream of Yangtze River, Three Gorges Hydroelectric Power Station can transfer plenty of water energy into electricity. To alleviate the ecological water shortage caused by hydropower operation, sustainable and balanced operation strategies considering the water demands of two departments needs to be studied. In the context of hydropower-environmental conflict-resolution management, the decision behaviors of two fuzzy social choice methods and four game-theoretical bargaining methods under 25 kinds of future climate scenarios are analyzed. Comparing the strategy selection results of different methods for a future period (2021–2082) shows that in all proposed climate scenarios, the decisions of the Nash bargaining method, alternating offer method, and unanimity fallback bargaining method in game-theoretical bargaining methods are more stable than other studied methods, which means that climate change affects the decision behaviors of these three methods slightly. In addition, balanced strategies selected by these three methods could formulate adaptable reservoir operation policies that would satisfy the interests of hydropower and environmental stakeholders equally, and avoid a very low satisfaction level of individual stakeholder and whole stakeholders in the water-conflict year. Therefore, against the background of an increasing demand for environmental protection, these three methods can provide socio-optimal strategies considering social and economic benefits for water resource management.

Opportunities for harnessing the increased contribution of glacier and snowmelt flows in the Ganges basin

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 9-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bharat R. Sharma ◽  
Devaraj de Condappa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Ganges Basin ◽  
Additional Water ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Tehri Dam ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Himalaya

The topography of the Ganges basin is highly variable, with the steep mountainous region of the Himalaya upstream and the large fertile plains in eastern India and Bangladesh downstream. The contribution from the glaciers to streamflows is supposed to be significant but there is uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate change on glaciers. An application of the Water Evaluation and Planning model was set up which contained an experimental glaciers module. The model also examined the possible impacts of an increase in temperature. The contribution from glaciated areas is significant (60–75%) in the Upper Ganges but reduces downstream, falling to about 19% at Farakka. Climate change-induced rise in temperature logically increases the quantity of snow and ice that melts in glaciated areas. However, this impact decreases from upstream (+8% to +26% at Tehri dam) to downstream (+1% to +4% at Farakka). Such increases in streamflows may create flood events more frequently, or of higher magnitude, in the upper reaches. Potential strategies to exploit this additional water may include the construction of new dams/reservoir storage and the development of groundwater in the basin through managed aquifer recharge. The riparian states of India, Nepal and Bangladesh could harness this opportunity to alleviate physical water scarcity and improve productivity.

On Approaches to Taking into Account the Risks of Changing Climatic Conditions when Planning and Implementing Oil and Gas Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-65
Author(s):  
P. N. Mikheev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses issues related to the impact of climate change on the objects of the oil and gas industry. The main trends in climate change on a global and regional (on the territory of Russian Federation) scale are outlined. Possible approaches to the identification and assessment of climate risks are discussed. The role of climatic risks as physical factors at various stages of development and implementation of oil and gas projects is shown. Based on the example of oil and gas facilities in the Tomsk region, a qualitative assessment of the level of potential risk from a weather and climatic perspective is given. Approaches to creating a risk management and adaptation system to climate change are presented.

scholarly journals Spatial-temporal changes in river runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Zhai ◽  
Fulu Tao ◽  
Zhihui Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 ℃ above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 ℃, it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios by four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on river runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR) in China. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, river runoff and TEWR were analysed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that there were large uncertainties in climate scenarios from the different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in the impact assessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differences between the two warming scenarios. The interannual variability of river runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from 1.5 ℃ warming scenario to 2.0 ℃ warming scenario. By contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable. Both extreme low and high river runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas in China, with high river runoff increasing more. And the risk of extreme river runoff events would be higher under 2.0 ℃ warming scenario than under 1.5 ℃ warming scenario in term of both extent and intensity. River runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum temperature would generally cause river runoff to decrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation also played a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our findings highlight climate change mitigation and adaptation should be taken to reduce the risks of hydrological extreme events.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

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