Mathematical modeling and impact analysis of the use of COVID Alert SA app

<abstract> <p>The human life-threatening novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has lasted for over a year escalating and posing simultaneous anxiety day-by-day globally since its first report in the late December 2019. The scientific arena has been kept animated via continuous investigations in an effort to understand the spread dynamics and the impact of various mitigation measures to keep this pandemic diminished. Despite a lot of research works having been accomplished this far, the pandemic is still deep-rooted in many regions worldwide signaling for more scientific investigations. This study joins the field by developing a modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) compartmental deterministic model whose key distinct feature is the incorporation of the COVID Alert SA app use by the general public in prolific intention to control the spread of the epidemic. Validation of the model is performed by fitting the model to the Republic of South Africa's COVID-19 cases reported data using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package. The model's sensitivity analysis and simulations stipulate that gradual to complete use of the app would be perfect in contact tracing and substantially reduce the plateau number of COVID-19 infections. This would consequentially contribute remarkably to the eradication of the SARS-CoV-2 over time. Proportional amalgamation of the app use and test for COVID-19 on individuals not using the app would also reduce the peak number of infections apart from the 50 – 50% ratio which spikes the plateau number beyond any other proportion. The study establishes that at least 30% implementation of the app use with gradual increase in tests conducted for individuals not using the app would suffice to stabilize the disease free equilibrium resulting to gradual eradication of the pandemic.</p> </abstract>

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Modeling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil

10.1101/2021.10.22.21264706 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marcelo Eduardo Borges ◽

Leonardo Souto Ferreira ◽

Silas Poloni ◽

Ângela Maria Bagattini ◽

Caroline Franco ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Demographic Data ◽

School Closure ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

School Closures ◽

Infection Transmission ◽

The Impact

Among the various non–pharmaceutical interventions implemented in response to the Covid–19 pandemic during 2020, school closures have been in place in several countries to reduce infection transmission. Nonetheless, the significant short and long–term impacts of prolonged suspension of in–person classes is a major concern. There is still considerable debate around the best timing for school closure and reopening, its impact on the dynamics of disease transmission, and its effectiveness when considered in association with other mitigation measures. Despite the erratic implementation of mitigation measures in Brazil, school closures were among the first measures taken early in the pandemic in most of the 27 states in the country. Further, Brazil delayed the reopening of schools and stands among the countries in which schools remained closed for the most prolonged period in 2020. To assess the impact of school reopening and the effect of contact tracing strategies in rates of Covid–19 cases and deaths, we model the epidemiological dynamics of disease transmission in 3 large urban centers in Brazil under different epidemiological contexts. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings – school, home, work, and elsewhere, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening. Our model shows that reopening schools results in a non–linear increase of reported Covid-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. While low rates of within[&ndash]school transmission resulted in small effects on disease incidence (cases/100,000 pop), intermediate or high rates can severely impact disease trends resulting in escalating rates of new cases even if other interventions remain unchanged. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects of reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Our results suggest that policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. Also, although contact tracing strategies are essential to prevent new infections and outbreaks within school environments, our data suggest that they are alone not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission in the context of school reopening in settings with high and sustained transmission rates.

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Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Nepal and the importance of social distancing to contain the virus

Applied Science and Technology Annals ◽

10.3126/asta.v1i1.30268 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 15-25

Author(s):

Amod K. Pokhrel ◽

Yadav P. Joshi ◽

Sopnil Bhattarai

Keyword(s):

Mitigation Measures ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Limited Information ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Epidemiological Trend ◽

Reproduction Numbers ◽

The Government ◽

Testing Case ◽

The Impact

There is limited information on the epidemiology and the effects of mitigation measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Nepal. Using publicly available databases, we analyzed the epidemiological trend, the people's movement trends at different intervals across different categories of places and evaluated implications of social mobility on COVID-19. We also estimated the epidemic peak. As of June 9, 2020, Provinces 2 and 5 have most of the cases. People between 15 and 54 years are vulnerable to becoming infected, and more males than females are affected. The cases are growing exponentially. The growth rate of 0.13 and >1 reproduction numbers (R0) over time (median: 1.48; minimum: 0.58, and maximum: 3.71) confirms this trend. The case doubling time is five days. Google's community mobility data suggest that people strictly followed social distancing measures for one month after the lockdown. By around the 4th week of April, the individual's movement started rising, and social contacts increased. The number of cases peaked on May 12, with 83 confirmed cases in one day. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model suggests that the epidemic will peak approximately on day 41 (July 21, 2020), and start to plateau after day 80. To contain the spread of the virus, people should maintain social distancing. The Government needs to continue active surveillance, more PCR-based testing, case detection, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. The Government should also provide financial support and safety-nets to the citizen to limit the impact of COVID-19.

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COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by case investigation and contact tracing in the United States

10.1101/2021.11.19.21266580 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gabriel Rainisch ◽

Seonghye Jeon ◽

Danielle Pappas ◽

Kimberly Spencer ◽

Leah S Fischer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

The United States ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Federally Funded ◽

Us States ◽

Incidence Data ◽

Case Investigation ◽

The Us ◽

Potential Benefits ◽

Reported Data ◽

The Impact

Importance: Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 Case Investigation and Contact Tracing (CICT) programs is lacking. Policymakers need this evidence to assess its value. Objective: Estimate COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted nationwide by US states' CICT programs. Design: We combined data from US CICT programs (e.g., proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days to case and contact notification) with incidence data to model CICT impacts over 60 days period (November 25, 2020 to January 23, 2021) during the height of the pandemic. We estimated a range of impacts by varying assumed compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. Setting: US States and Territories Participants: Fifty-nine state and territorial health departments that received federal funding supporting COVID-19 pandemic response activities were eligible for inclusion. Of these, 22 states and 1 territory reported all measures necessary for the analysis. These 23 jurisdictions covered 42.5% of the US population (140 million persons), spanned all 4 census regions, and reported data that reflected all 59 federally funded CICT programs. Intervention: Public health case investigation and contact tracing Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases and hospitalizations averted; percent of cases averted among cases not prevented by vaccination and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (other NPIs). Results: We estimated 1.11 million cases and 27,231 hospitalizations were averted by CICT programs under a scenario where 80% of interviewed cases and monitored contacts, and 30% of notified contacts fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidance, eliminating their contributions to future transmission. As many as 1.36 million cases and 33,527 hospitalizations could have been prevented if all interviewed cases and monitored contacts had entered into and fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines upon being interviewed or notified. Across all scenarios and jurisdictions, CICT averted a median of 21.2% (range: 1.3% - 65.8%) of the cases not prevented by vaccination and other NPIs. Conclusions and Relevance: CICT programs likely had a substantial role in curtailing the pandemic in most jurisdictions during the winter 2020-2021 peak. Differences in impact across jurisdictions indicate an opportunity to further improve CICT effectiveness. These estimates demonstrate the potential benefits from sustaining and improving these programs.

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Problematika Kebijakkan Pendidikan di Tengah Pandemi dan Dampaknya Terhadap Proses Pembelajaran di Sekolah Dasar

Jurnal Qiroah ◽

10.33511/qiroah.v10n2.73-81 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 73-81

Author(s):

Syariful Anam ◽

Elya Umi Hanik

Keyword(s):

Learning Process ◽

Human Life ◽

Ministry Of Education ◽

Research Libraries ◽

Work From Home ◽

Library Research ◽

The Republic ◽

Learning Policies ◽

Teachers And Parents ◽

The Impact

The Covid pandemic has changed the entire order of human life, especially in the world of education. This requires education to change and adapt quickly to continue the learning process. The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of the Ministry of Education and Culture of the Republic of Indonesia policy on Work From Home (WFH) in education, especially among elementary schools. This article was written by reviewing articles and related references about online learning policies that are considered a solution to continue the learning process when schools are closed to avoid spreading the virus. However, on the other hand, this policy has had an impact on the process of transforming knowledge both for students, teachers and parents or families. This study uses a qualitative method based on library research (libraries).

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The Changes of Mangrove Area in Pati Regency of the Year 2011 - 2015 and Their Impact Analysis: A Literature Review

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/201912501018 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 125 ◽

pp. 01018

Author(s):

Achmad Nur Prihantoro ◽

Sutrisno Anggoro ◽

Fuad Muhammad

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Human Life ◽

Complex Function ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Land Conversion ◽

Mangrove Area ◽

The Media ◽

The Impact ◽

Group Association

Mangrove vegetation has a very complex function for human life now and in the future. Therefore protecting mangrove areas by preventing damage and reforesting in mangrove areas that have improved degradation must continue. The purpose of this study is to identify changes in mangrove areas for five years, as well as their impact. A literature review of previous research studies used to assess the impact of a decrease in the mangrove area, along with conservation strategies. The results showed that the degradation of mangroves for land conversion can result in decreased carbon stocks in sediments, changes in abiotic conditions in the media, a decrease in the number of fish catches, the occurrence of abrasion and a decrease infauna of the Mollusca group association. Integrated coastal management should pay attention to the sectoral dimension, dimensions of science and ecological dimensions.

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Remote Sensing for Monitoring and Mapping Karst Groundwater Flooding in the Republic of Ireland

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18921 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Joan Campanyà i Llovet ◽

Ted McCormack ◽

Owen Naughton

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Rural Communities ◽

Remote Sensing Data ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

Trinity College Dublin ◽

Monitoring And Forecasting ◽

The Republic ◽

Institute Of Technology ◽

The Impact

<p>Karst related groundwater flooding represents a significant hazard in many rural communities in Ireland. A series of unprecedented flood events in recent years have reinforced the need to improve our ability to quantify the location and likelihood of flood occurrence. Geological Survey Ireland, in collaboration with Carlow Institute of Technology and Trinity College Dublin, has established a collaborative project to investigate groundwater flooding, with particular emphasis on seasonal karst lakes known as turloughs. There are over 400 recorded turloughs across Ireland, the majority of which located on limestone lowlands. Turloughs can completely dry during summer months but extend to hundreds of hectares during the winter flood season. The practical limitations of establishing and maintaining a network of over 400 turloughs supported the use of remote sensing and GIS techniques to delineate flood extents and monitor flood prone areas using satellite imagery such as of the ESA Copernicus programme. Measurements at 50 sites for over 18 months were used to calibrate and validate results from satellite data. With limited recorded groundwater flood data in Ireland, the use of remote sensing data provides historical archives of images to look at past flood conditions to optimise the detection of groundwater and delineate maximum groundwater flood maps. These new data improve the fundamental hydrological understanding of groundwater flooding in Ireland, enabling key stakeholders to develop appropriate flood mitigation measures and allow for informed flood assessments to be made in future. Additionally, it is a first step towards implementation of near-real time monitoring and forecasting of groundwater levels, and the evaluation of the impact of climate change to groundwater systems in Ireland.</p>

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The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.625499 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Valentina Costantino ◽

Chandini Raina MacIntyre

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Face Mask ◽

Control Measures ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Epidemic Size ◽

Community Transmission ◽

Age Structured ◽

The Impact ◽

Mask Effectiveness

Objective(s): To estimate the impact of universal community face mask use in Victoria, Australia along with other routine disease control measures in place.Methods: A mathematical modeling study using an age structured deterministic model for Victoria, was simulated for 123 days between 1 June 2020 and 1 October 2020, incorporating lockdown, contact tracing, and case findings with and without mask use in varied scenarios. The model tested the impact of differing scenarios of the universal use of face masks in Victoria, by timing, varying mask effectiveness, and uptake.Results: A six-week lockdown with standard control measures, but no masks, would have resulted in a large resurgence by September, following the lifting of restrictions. Mask use can substantially reduce the epidemic size, with a greater impact if at least 50% of people wear a mask which has an effectiveness of at least 40%. Early mask use averts more cases than mask usage that is only implemented closer to the peak. No mask use, with a 6-week lockdown, results in 67,636 cases and 120 deaths by 1 October 2020 if no further lockdowns are used. If mask use at 70% uptake commences on 23 July 2020, this is reduced to 7,961 cases and 42 deaths. We estimated community mask effectiveness to be 11%.Conclusion(s): Lockdown and standard control measures may not have controlled the epidemic in Victoria. Mask use can substantially improve epidemic control if its uptake is higher than 50% and if moderately effective masks are used. Early mask use should be considered in other states if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask wearing mandates.

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Analysis of globalization determinants impact on human resources development

University Economic Bulletin ◽

10.31470/2306-546x-2018-38-104-112 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 104-112

Author(s):

Anna Pereverzieva

Keyword(s):

Human Resources ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Human Life ◽

Development Economic ◽

Human Resources Development ◽

Present Stage ◽

Work Activity ◽

The Impact ◽

Resources Development

Subject, objective of the study. The role of human resources at the present stage of society development is revealed. Globalization determinants are distinguished. Adjustment of the role of human resources amid intensification of globalization impact on all components of human life is illustrated. The influence of modern globalization tendencies on labour activity is determined. Hereupon industrial and informational approaches to the definition of the subsence of labour are figured out. The analysis of globalization factors influence on the development of human resources is made. The objective of the study is to analyze globalization determinants impact on human resources development. Method and methodology of research design. General scientific and specific methods and techniques of scientific research are used: induction and deduction, when determining the role of human resources at the present stage of society development; analysis and synthesis, when determining the impact of modern globalization tendencies on labour and human resources development; scientific abstraction and systematic analysis, when emphasizing globalization factors. Study findings. Findings of the impact analysis of globalization factors on human resources development are presented. Globalization factors are identified. The peculiarities of their effect are characterized. Conclusions. Taking into account current tendencies in the development of society, the role of human resources is being increased. They determine the potential opportunities, ensure competitiveness rate and shape the future trajectories of development. Intensification of globalization process effect leads to the need for constant development and self-improvement of a person in order to meet modern requirements and increase individual competitiveness rate. We identify some key globalization determinants, which affect human resources development: economic, political, technological, educational, social and cultural. These factors peculiarities mean the chain reaction which cause the factor`s performance initiated by other`s impact. Nowadays there are significant changes in the work activity, the nature of labor, in which the highest creative activity of a person is considered to be the most important. The result is the creation of a unique product that simultaneously satisfies the needs of a person in the development of abilities, self-realization, and at the same time satisfies the needs of others.

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Data-Driven Deep-Learning Algorithm for Asymptomatic COVID-19 Model with Varying Mitigation Measures and Transmission Rate

Epidemiologia ◽

10.3390/epidemiologia2040033 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (4) ◽

pp. 471-489

Author(s):

K. D. Olumoyin ◽

A. Q. M. Khaliq ◽

K. M. Furati

Keyword(s):

Learning Algorithm ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

The United States ◽

Data Driven ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Deep Learning Algorithm ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Neural Network Algorithm ◽

The Impact

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In this paper, an Epidemiology-Informed Neural Network algorithm is introduced to learn the time-varying transmission rate for the COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of various mitigation scenarios. There are asymptomatic infectives, mostly unreported, and the proposed algorithm learns the proportion of the total infective individuals that are asymptomatic infectives. Using cumulative and daily reported cases of the symptomatic infectives, we simulate the impact of non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures such as early detection of infectives, contact tracing, and social distancing on the basic reproduction number. We demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination on the transmission of COVID-19. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated using error metrics in the data-driven simulation for COVID-19 data of Italy, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

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Keabsahan Klausula Perpanjangan Periode dalam Restrukturisasi Kredit Akibat Pandemi Covid-19

Notaire ◽

10.20473/ntr.v4i2.26120 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 313

Author(s):

Tamara Teguh

Keyword(s):

Natural Disaster ◽

Financial Services ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Human Life ◽

Loan Repayment ◽

Corona Virus ◽

Presidential Decree ◽

The Republic ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak was determined by the President as a non-natural disaster through Presidential Decree Number 12 of 2020 concerning the Designation of Non-Natural Disaster for the Spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a National Disaster. Its rapid spread has an impact on all aspects of human life, especially in the economic sector, many business actors have suffered losses and a number of banks are experiencing credit risk, which debtors or customers are unable to make credit installments on the pretext of being affected by the pandemic. The Presidential Decree cannot automatically cancel existing agreements, so that the Government makes policies in order to stimulate economic growth. This policy was issued by the Financial Services Authority through Regulation of the Financial Services Authority of the Republic of Indonesia Number 11/POJK.03/2020 concerning National Economic Stimulus as a Countercyclical Policy on the Impact of the Spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019 which has been extended by the Financial Services Authority Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia Number 48/POJK.03/2020 as an effort to avoid default. The debtor is given loan repayment relief at the Bank or Leasing with terms determined by the Bank. This payment relief is known as credit restructuring, which there is a renegotiation process to change existing loans. One of the changes in the agreement is by rescheduling, namely extending the installment payment period. Keywords: COVID-19 Disease Outbreak; Credit Restructuring; Rescheduling.Wabah penyakit Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ditetapkan oleh Presiden sebagai bencana non alam melalui Keputusan Presiden Republik Indonesia Nomor 12 Tahun 2020 Tentang Penetapan Bencana Non Alam Penyebaran Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Sebagai Bencana Nasional. Penyebarannya yang begitu pesat berdampak pada segala aspek kehidupan manusia terutama di bidang ekonomi, banyak pelaku usaha yang mengalami kerugian dan sejumlah perbankan mengalami risiko kredit, dimana debitur atau nasabah tidak mampu untuk melakukan pembayaran cicilan kredit dengan dalih terkena dampak pandemi. Dengan adanya Keputusan Presiden itu tidak dapat serta merta membatalkan perjanjian yang sudah ada, sehingga Pemerintah membuat kebijakan dalam rangka menstimulus pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kebijakan tersebut dikeluarkan oleh Otoritas Jasa Keuangan melalui Peraturan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Republik Indonesia Nomor 11/POJK.03/2020 Tentang Stimulus Perekonomian Nasional Sebagai Kebijakan Countercyclical Dampak Penyebaran Corona Virus Disease 2019 yang telah diperpanjang dengan Peraturan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Republik Indonesia Nomor 48/POJK.03/2020 sebagai upaya agar tidak terjadinya wanprestasi. Debitur diberikan keringanan pembayaran cicilan pinjaman di Bank atau Leasing dengan persyaratan-persyaratan yang ditentukan oleh Bank. Keringanan pembayaran ini dikenal dengan restrukturisasi kredit, dimana terdapat proses renegosiasi atau negosiasi ulang untuk merubah perjanjian kredit yang sudah ada. Perubahan perjanjian tersebut salah satunya ialah dengan penjadwalan kembali atau rescheduling, yaitu memperpanjang periode pembayaran cicilan.Kata Kunci: Wabah Penyakit COVID-19; Restrukturisasi Kredit; Penjadwalan Kembali.

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