Analysis of the Development Situation and Forecasting of Development of Emergency Situations in Socio-Technical Systems

2017 ◽  
pp. 76-107
Author(s):  
Yuliya Sikirda ◽  
Tetiana Shmelova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Dynamic Instability ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Markov Network ◽  
Structural Hierarchy ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Technical Systems

In this chapter, socio-technical analysis of Air Navigation System (ANS) has hold in the result of which the heterogeneous factors of professional and non-professional activities influencing on the decision-making (DM) of ANS's human-operator (Н-О) in expected and unexpected aircraft's (АС) operating conditions have classified, systematically compiled and formalized. The method of generalization of heterogeneous factors, which allows taking into account the structural hierarchy, heterogeneity, dynamic instability of factors of professional and non-professional activity influencing on the ANS's H-O DM has developed, the conditions for their evaluation have determined. The vector of actions of the ANS's H-O in the expected and unexpected AC operating conditions, taking into account the model of the operator's behaviour, has considered. The authors have obtained the models of bipolar choice of operator of Socio-Technical System (STS) for using of reflexion theory and Markov network. They present the results of choosing in the direction of positive, negative pole, a mixed choice and forecasting of development of the situation. The authors demonstrate the methodology for analysis of flight situation development using GERT's and Markov's networks.

Analysis of the Development Situation and Forecasting of Development of Emergency Situations in Socio-Technical Systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 827-851
Author(s):  
Yuliya Sikirda ◽  
Tetiana Shmelova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Dynamic Instability ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Markov Network ◽  
Structural Hierarchy ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Technical Systems

In this chapter, socio-technical analysis of Air Navigation System (ANS) has hold in the result of which the heterogeneous factors of professional and non-professional activities influencing on the decision-making (DM) of ANS's human-operator (Н-О) in expected and unexpected aircraft's (АС) operating conditions have classified, systematically compiled and formalized. The method of generalization of heterogeneous factors, which allows taking into account the structural hierarchy, heterogeneity, dynamic instability of factors of professional and non-professional activity influencing on the ANS's H-O DM has developed, the conditions for their evaluation have determined. The vector of actions of the ANS's H-O in the expected and unexpected AC operating conditions, taking into account the model of the operator's behaviour, has considered. The authors have obtained the models of bipolar choice of operator of Socio-Technical System (STS) for using of reflexion theory and Markov network. They present the results of choosing in the direction of positive, negative pole, a mixed choice and forecasting of development of the situation. The authors demonstrate the methodology for analysis of flight situation development using GERT's and Markov's networks.

scholarly journals Probabilistic-deterministic approach of controlling the functionality of a technical system in normal and emergency operation modes

2018 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. 04008
Author(s):  
Vladimir M. Zababurin ◽  
Marina A. Egorova ◽  
Yuliya A. Polyakova
Keyword(s):  
Open Systems ◽  
System Development ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Emergency Operation ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Recovery Processes ◽  
Current State ◽  
Self Organized Criticality ◽  
Technical Systems

The main disadvantages of the existing methods of managing the current state of technical systems are revealed. A non-standard approach is proposed for managing the functionality of the system in emergency situations. The character of the dynamics of the recovery processes of the technical system is determined as its state approaches the emergency one on the basis of the recommendations of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC). The physical criteria for assessing the current state of the technical system are revealed. The rationale for using the physical indicator of the functional destabilization of the system is given. The signs of the pre-emergency state of the technical system are considered. A grapho-analytical model for the development of an emergency situation has been developed. The fact of the inevitable increase in the entropy of the system upon its transition to an emergency state is established. Structuring of the system development process in an emergency situation is carried out in three stages. The methodology for estimating the pre-emergency state of complex open systems is presented. The advantages of the proposed approach to managing the state of technical systems in comparison with traditional ones are established.

scholarly journals Συμμετοχική και προσαρμοζόμενη διαχείριση

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Βασιλική Κλεφτογιάννη
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Local People ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Primary Sector ◽  
Management Policies

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of successful participatory and adaptive management in the protected area of Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas estuaries, based on local people‟s perceptions in relation to protection, as well as on main elements considered to be critical for successful participatory processes. Participatory and adaptive management of protected areas includes involvement of stakeholders in decision making and the ability to adjust management policies to emerging needs, associated with complex and dynamic socio-natural systems. The area of the Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas estuaries is protected under national, European and international environmental legislation. Simultaneously, the area is one of the most dynamic agro-ecosystems of Greece. Agriculture and fishing/mussel culture are well-developed activities of the primary sector of economy resulting in a number of environmental pressures on the protected area. Until recently, there was no substantial institutional protection of the area. The Common Ministerial Decision designating the area protected, pending for several years, was finally published in 2009. This delay was considered associated with reactions of the local people to potential restrictions imposed on their professional activities. The first part of this study attempts to record perceptions of the local population regarding important issues related with the protected area and explore how they are influenced by age and education of respondents, their economic dependence on it and distance of their residence from its borders. Using a questionnaire, the survey was conducted to a total sample of 822 respondents. The first part reveals a strong spatial variation in the views of local people, which requires special management policies. In general, a positive attitude towards protection was recorded, although there was a part of respondents that expressed negative attitude to protection, associated exclusively with economic interests. This study coincided with a pilot application of adaptive management in the area by the Managing Authority of Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas estuaries. The Managing Authority applied an evaluating method of the main environmental threats to the area by a group of experts. Given the absence of stakeholders of the primary sector from this process, we decided to explore their views regarding threats by applying a similar approach. To this aim, ten focus groups were formed, seven representing agricultural cooperatives and three representing fishing cooperatives. The results of the second part show that stakeholders of the primary sector tend to underestimate specific threats related to their professional activities. However, most groups recognized the wetland‟s value; also, in a number of cases, their assessment of threats approached the experts‟ assessment. It appears that the conditions for implementing participatory and adaptive management in the region are generally favorable, provided the effective tackling of issues which incite conflict or impede management efforts. Important among them are the disparity between different regions and the association of professional activity and financial interests with the attitude to protection. Active and effective involvement of major stakeholders in early decision making stages, that is the process of participatory and adaptive management itself, can help in addressing these issues.

Semantic Analysis and Text Summarization in Socio-Technical Systems

2017 ◽  
pp. 243-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Rizun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Text Mining ◽  
Semantic Analysis ◽  
Text Summarization ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Synergy Effect ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Technical Systems

In this chapter, the authors present the results of the development the text-mining methodology for increasing the reliability of the functioning of Socio-technical System (STS). Taking into account revealed strengths and weaknesses of Discriminant and Probabilistic approaches of Latent Semantic Relations analysis in of the abstracting and summarization projection, the Methodology of Two-level Single Document Summarization was developed. The Methodology assumes the following elements of novelty: based on obtaining a multi-level topical framework of the document (abstracting); uses the synergy effect of consistent usage the combination of two approaches for identification of conceptually significant elements of the text (summarization). The examples demonstrating the basic workability of proposed Methodology were presented. Such approaches should help human to increase the quality of supporting the decision-making processes of STS in real time.

Models of Decision-Making Operators of Socio-Technical System

2017 ◽  
pp. 33-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetiana Shmelova ◽  
Yuliya Sikirda
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Behavioral Activity ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Markov Network ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Tree Models ◽  
Aerial Vehicle

In this chapter, the authors present Air Navigation System (ANS) as a Socio-technical System (STS). The authors present models of decision making (DM) operators of STS, such as the deterministic models obtained for using network planning; the stochastic models obtained for using decision-tree; models in uncertainty obtained for using criteria Vald, Laplace, Savage, Hurwicz and other. The authors presented also DM models of operators in ANS, such as the neural network models, fuzzy models, the Markov network models, GERT-models for modelling and forecasting of behavioral activity of ANS's Human-operator (H-O) in flight emergencies situation. The scenarios of developing a flight situation in case of selecting either the positive or negative pole in accordance with the reflexive theory have been obtained. They demonstrate some examples with DM's deterministic and stochastic models for engineers, pilots, air traffic controllers, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operators, managers etc. In addition, the chapter presents some examples of DM models developed by the author and students at National Aviation University.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the development level of several professionally significant psychological qualities of future specialists in extreme professions

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-441
Author(s):  
Екатерина Игоревна Гермацкая
Keyword(s):  
Self Regulation ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Motivational Orientation ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Development Level ◽  
High Level ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The University

Purpose. Studying the level of development of certain professionally significant psychological qualities of future specialists in extreme professions, such as volitional self-regulation, propensity to take risks, motivation to achieve success or overcome failure. Methods. Carrying out an ascertaining experiment: psychological testing using the techniques: «Motivation of success and fear of failure» (questionnaire by A.A. Rean), «Research of the propensity to take risks» (questionnaire of A.G. Shmelev), «Level of volitional self-regulation» (questionnaire A.V. Zverkov and E.V. Eydman). Findings. The results of studying the level of development of volitional self-regulation, self-control and perseverance, motivational orientation and propensity to risk of the 1st and 3rd year students of the University of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Belarus are presented. The conditions of professional activity of specialists in extreme professions are briefly considered. Strong-willed efforts for workers in extreme activities are necessary to overcome such external obstacles as difficulties in professional activities, various hindrances, confronting with other people or life circumstances. It can be concluded that the majority of respondents are characterized by a high level of volitional self-regulation, perseverance and self-control. The overwhelming majority of the first and third year students were diagnosed with pronounced motivation to achieve success. It has been found that almost all respondents participating in the study had an average level of propensity to take risks. Application field of research. The presented results can be used to work out a program for the development of professionally important psychological qualities, skills and abilities of extreme profile specialists aimed at forecasting the main conditions and regularities of their formation.

scholarly journals Decision making in specialist forensic psychiatric (the psychological aspect)

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-71
Author(s):  
E.V. Shmakova ◽  
E.M. Popova ◽  
E.S. Shekhovtsova ◽  
T.N. Kabanova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Subjective Evaluation ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Personal Factors ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric ◽  
The Relationship

The article presents the results of a study of psychological factors of decision making amongforensic psychiatric specialists. Given the survey data of10 medical psychologists and 10 psychiatrists carrying out compulsory treatment in the psychiatric hospital №5, Moscow Department of Public Health, in comparison with the control group, consisting of professionals working in the field of education, manufacturing, services and technology. Methodical complex included: 1. The Epstein questionnaire of the intuitive style (adaptation Kornilova T. V., Kornilov S. A.); A new questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty (Kornilova T. V.); Melbourne questionnaire of decision making (adaptation T. V.Kornilova); The questionnaire «Personal factors of decision making»(T.V. Kornilova); TheV. Smecalo and V. M. Kucher method; The Tsvetkova Method; 7. The questionnaire «Styles of thinking» by R. Bramsonand Harrison (adaptation of A. A. Alekseev); 8.The questionnaire «Scale of base convictions» (R.Yanov-Boulemane, adaptation M.A. Padun, A.V. Kotelnikov); 9. The check-list aimed to identify the type of decisions taken by the expert in professional activity, their frequency, importance, subjective evaluation is necessary for decision making qualities and to evaluate the most significant opinions of other persons in the decision-making process. There were defined the characteristics of decision making depending on gender. The relationships between type of activity and frequency of occurrence of different types of decisions in professional activities of specialists were revealed. Analyzed the relationship between consideration of the views of others when making decisions and activity.

scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PSYCHOLOGICAL FEATURES OF PERSONALITY AND DECISION-MAKING STYLE IN PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (45) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
A. V. Timakova ◽  
D. I. Fedorenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Uncertainty Intolerance ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Decision Making Styles ◽  
Psychological Features ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Selection Of

Third year student, D. I. Fedorenko D. I. Relationship between psychological features of personality and decision-making style in professional activity / Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Ukraine Kyiv. The article reveals the content of the concept and theoretical approaches to the selection of decision-making styles in professional activities. The psychological features of the personality that determine the choice of a certain style of decision making are considered. The results of an empirical study of the relationship between psychological characteristics of personality and decision-making style in professional activities are highlighted.Key words: decision-making style, psychological features of personality, locus-control, internality, externality, tolerance to uncertainty, intolerance to uncertainty, vigilance, avoidance, hypervigilance, procrastination.

Self-regulation as a mechanism for ensuring the professional reliability of the subject

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Talashmanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Self Regulation ◽  
Performance Standards ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Professional Requirements ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

The need for developing a reliability theory arose as a result of errors and failures in the operation of technical systems which have been caused by a “human factor” in over 50% of cases. Non-compliance of the subject’s professional qualities and competencies with the performance standards and norms triggered identifying the problem of the formation and maintenance of professional reliability. As a result, the issue of identifying mechanisms to ensure professional reliability is considered, and it is caused by the need to maintain the effectiveness of the subject’s professional activity and working capacity at the proper level. Professional reliability is defined as an important integrative quality that is focused on maintaining the unmistakable performance of professional actions for a certain time in the conditions of regular and emergency situations. Self-regulation is considered as one of the main components of the subject’s professional reliability which affects the level of professional reliability. It was revealed that demonstrating all indicators of professional reliability directly depends on the reliability of self-regulation. The previous studies on the relationship of conscious self-regulation and professional reliability were analyzed. As part of the study on the professional reliability of forestry workers, a program was implemented to develop special regulatory mechanisms, which in turn increased the success of professional activities. The impact mechanisms of selfregulation reliability on professional reliability were identified based on the example of visa centers’ managers who have been experiencing excessively prolonged stress and the new professional requirements. Also, by researching the professional reliability of power structures specialists, the importance of developing an individual style of self-regulation was described and proved, which overcomes situational psychological “barriers” in the process of professional activity.

ISO 9001 International Standard, a Tool to Enhance Data Quality in Durable Socio-Technical Systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 809-810 ◽  
pp. 1528-1534
Author(s):  
Alexandre Sava ◽  
Kondo Adjallah ◽  
Valentin Zichil
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Quality Management System ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Iso 9001 ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
International Standard ◽  
Technical Systems

The quality of data is recognized to be a key issue for the assets management in enterprises as data is the foundation of any decision making process. Recent research work has established that the quality of data is highly dependent on the knowledge one has on the socio-technical system being considered. Three modes of knowledge have been identified: knowing what, knowing how and knowing why. In this paper we focus on how to manage these modes of knowledge in durable socio-technical systems to enhance the data quality face to technological progress and employees turnover. We believe that an organization based on ISO 9001 international standard can provide a valuable framework to provide the data quality needed to an efficient decision making process. This framework has been applied to design the data quality management system within a high education socio-technical system. The most important benefits that have been noticed are: 1) a shared vision on the external clients of the system with a positive impact on the definition of the strategy and the objectives of the system and 2) a deep understanding of the data client-supplier relationship inside the socio-technical system. A direct consequence of these achievements was the increasing knowledge on “know-what” data to collect, “know-why” to collect that data and “know-how” to collect it.

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