A Study of Crime Predictive Modeling Using a Variable

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 2159-2161
Author(s):  
Young Suk Chung ◽  
Hae Gill Choi ◽  
Jin Mook Kim ◽  
Koo Rock Park

Modern society is experiencing a variety of crimes, and the damage caused by crime is increasing. So, to prevent crime, to understand the various studies are in progress. However, due to the change of time to predict the incidence of crime research and crime happens there are few studies on the social environment. In this paper, predictive modeling for time changes the crime was investigated. And social changes in the environment a variable predictive modeling to improve accuracy by applying the crime that was investigated. In this paper, the change of social environment, crime, apply predictive modeling to forecast the exact crime is expected to be used.

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 915-919
Author(s):  
Krasimira Stefanova Petrova

Pre-school age is an intensive period in the life of a person which offers great potential for development. The dimensions of the impact of the social environment (children, parents and other adults) on the child’s personality are multifaceted. This accounts for the emphasis on social norms, goals and ideals. Education is the one factor that can best provide the socialization of adolescents.The changes in modern society have led to redefining the parenting patterns for bringing up children. The role of the family as an environment for transferring social experience has never lost its significance. Children need continuous care in order to handle societal failures; they need support for mastering the culture of behavior, as well as timely and appropriate help for ensuring conflict-free communication and for enabling them to take responsibility for their own choices and actions.Psychological studies show that various factors influence both the upbringing of children as well as the parents’ attitudes towardsthem. The relevant factors include: the childhood experiences of the parents; the unrealized needs of the parents; interpersonal relations in the family that are characterized by emotional depth and style that are considered to have established "a standard".The parameters of the actuality of the research problem are based on the interrelationship of the social and educational aspects that are related to the position of the child and his personal assertion in society:- Atpre-schoolage, thechildgraduallyfitsintothesocialsystem, whichistheresult of learningexperiences, actionsandrelationships, awarenessandrediscovery of theselfandtheworld of otherpeople.- Thechildbecomesaware of thenorms of behaviorandthemeaning of actions–their ownandother people’s - andlearns to takeresponsibilityfortheiractions.- Oneyearbeforeschool starts, the childdevelopstheability to accepttheposition of othersand to takeintoaccounttheirownandothers’perspective.- For a successfulpersonalrealization, itisimportantforchildren to havetheskills to worktogetherandcommunicatein a group. Thisisthecompetencethatdirectstheirbehaviortowardsco-ordination, co-operationandsynergy.The abovementioned specific features of the child's personality are the result of the intentional educational interactions between the kindergarten and the family and are related to the acquisition of knowledge, rules and norms, and of value-oriented patterns that define behavior. The foundations for thisare laid during the pre-school age and are considered the most stable and lasting, often referred to as the "basic personality structure". Along with them, the "behavioral potential" of the child, which is demonstrated at different ages, is shaped and developedthrough upbringing. Consequently, behavior is seen as a specific manifestation of the personality associated with its selective attitude towards the influence of various factors in the social environment. The direction of the educational activitiesinspires the motivation for personal behavior aiming at growth and self-actualization. Hence, the presence of a certain skill level which imposes a new approach to learning - replacing the mechanical reproduction with the acquisition of competences for and attitudes towards interaction in a changing environment. What is appropriate for achieving these goals is the applicationof functional models for cooperation, individualization and differentiation of the educational process. These ensure that the child is provided with conditions for activity and for mastering basic, sustainable rules for conscious participation and development that are important for the success of each of his activities. This is a type of social education that is achieved through exploring the social fabric andacquiring the skills for learning, choosing and communicating.


Author(s):  
Monika Frąckowiak-Sochańska ◽  
◽  
Marcin Hermanowski

This paper aims to analyze the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the individuals’ mental conditions, focusing on psychotherapy clients. The sources of knowledge about mental condition changes analyzed here are psychotherapists’ reports. One of the research purposes was to examine to what extent the problems resulting from the pandemic are visible from the perspective of psychotherapists’ offices. Moreover, the authors explore the changes in psychotherapists’ functioning and the adjustments of psychotherapy understood as one of the expert systems in a late modern society affected by social changes’ trauma. Adopting the theory of social trauma (Alexander 2004, Sztompka 2002) as the frame of analysis enables examining the relation between personal but repeatable experiences of emotional crises and their global context determined by the pandemic. This paper’s empirical foundation is the survey research on a sample of 384 Polish psychotherapists carried out between August 10 and September 30 as a part of the project „Psychotherapeutic work in the pandemic time” supported by the Faculty of Sociology at Adam Mickiewicz University. The research results enable registering the increased intensity of problems resulting from social stress among people searching for psychotherapeutic support and those working in the helping professions. Simultaneously, changes in the functioning of the whole expert system of psychotherapy may be interpreted as the attempts to compensate for the social order destabilization that results in the growing stress and overburden of individuals.


Monitor ISH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-94
Author(s):  
Karmen Medica

The interaction between media and migrants is an integral part of the everyday social context at all levels of modern society, institutional and non-institutional alike. Such dynamism promotes a wide range of social changes and processes. These processes have recently come to be marked by a transition from mediation to mediatisation. While mediation is simply a transfer or transmission of communication by the media, mediatisation involves the active impact of the media on communication in the social and cultural contexts within which this impact can be understood and interpreted. Mediatisation refers to the broader (meta)changes of the media and forms of communication, which in turn cause changes in daily life and in personal and collective identities, as well as in social relations and in society as a whole. Mediatisation is increasingly changing the relationship between the media and society. In the context of the EU, the reporting on migrants tends to be depersonalised. This encourages generalisation, which in its turn reinforces stereotypes and fails to convey a realistic picture of the situation. Another problem identified is the lack of distinctly profiled individuals who could function as representatives of the migrant communities. Moreover, both media and journalists often neglect information coming from direct immigrant sources. The result of this vicious circle is confirmed by the general opinion that migrants typically appear only in cases diverging from the standard, with a strong emphasis on sensational presentation. The integration of migrant communities largely depends on how much they are recognised, identified and found attractive at least by a part of the public. Changes in the form and means of communication further change the forms of grouping and forms of social power. The changes in dealing with migrant issues become evident at three levels: in the media, in politics, and in everyday life.


Author(s):  
G. Yaschenko

The article considers the peculiarities of innovations in the social sphere of commercial organizations, proposes a classification of innovations in the social sphere of a commercial organization. Management, organizational, educational and economic innovation directions were identified as the main result of the empirical study. Identify the scope of innovation in the enterprise. Identify the factors that are the reasons for the need to introduce changes, in particular: increase in profits and productivity, changes in society as a whole. Analyzed the reasons that promote and hinder the effective introduction of social changes, including insufficient motivation of staff and the preparation of managers for implementing change. Relevant forms of work for the implementation of psychological support for the process of introduction of changes are found. In our opinion, in order to improve the methods of implementing social innovations in commercial organizations, a clear understanding of the place of social innovations in the system of their innovation development is necessary. Moreover, an understanding of the structural and functional division of social innovations with a view to their conscious design and implementation, which will provide innovation-led result. In order to better understand the peculiarities of introducing innovations in the social sphere of organizations, we conducted an empirical study aimed at identifying the type of innovations in the social sphere of commercial organizations that are most commonly encountered at the moment, as well as factors that determine the necessity of introducing such innovations and the factors contributing to and impede the effective implementation of social change. The main purpose of our article is to study socio-psychological conditions for the implementation of social innovations in commercial organizations .The research carried out proved the fact of existing social innovation in modern commercial organizations. In addition: 1. In modern commercial organizations, the introduction of social changes that affect various spheres of the social environment of the organization, have an uneven distribution. In particular, the most innovative changes in the managerial, organizational, educational and economic component of the social environment of the organization. 2. Among the motives for introducing changes, the motive for gaining more profit, increasing productivity and satisfaction of employees with their work are the first place. An important place among the motives is also the compliance of the needs of employees with the new needs that arise in society as a whole. The biggest obstacles are ignoring the actual needs of employees and the formality of the changes introduced. 3. The initiators of such changes are, in most cases, the management of the company, which is guided by both the needs of a purely commercial nature and the requirements of modern changes in society. 4. The readiness of the employees to participate in the innovation processes and the conditions contributing to it, namely, the motivation of the personnel and the special training of the persons responsible for these processes are revealed. 5. It has been found that appropriate forms of work on the implementation of psychological support for the process of introducing changes are socio-psychological training and counseling, both group and individual. The prospects for further research are to analyze the readiness of the leaders of organizations to implement social changes, to develop practical ways of training employees and responsible for introducing changes in the social sphere of commercial organizations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Umi Hanifah

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan yang terjadi pada masyarakat Samin Bojonegoro dengan menggunakan teori Pembagian Kerja dan Solidaritas Sosial Emile Durkheim. Yaitu perubahan sosial dari masyarakat tradisional menuju masyarakat modern. Menurut Emile Durkheim, peningkatan sistem pembagian kerja pada masyarakat berimplikasi pada perubahan tipe solidaritas sosialnya, yaitu pada masyarakat dengan sistem pembagian kerja yang sangat sedikit akan menghasilkan tipe soli-daritas mekanik, sedangkan pada masyarakat dengan pembagian kerja yang kompleks akan menghasilkan tipe solidaritas organik. Dimulai dengan mendeskripsikan kehidupan masyarakat Samin dari asal usul, ajaran yang diikuti dan perubahan sosial yang terjadi pada mereka. Bentuk kajian ini adalah penelitian kualitatif. Data dalam kajian ini digunakan untuk memahami dan menafsirkan makna peristiwa serta pola tingkah laku masyarakat Samin Bojonegoro. Adapun data yang diperoleh berasal dari dokumen sejarah Samin dan bahan kepustakaan berupa buku, video film maupun jurnal ilmiah. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dapat diketahui bahwa kondisi masyarakat Samin Bojonegoro telah mengalami transformasi dari tradisional menuju masyarakat modern. Meskipun telah mengalami perubahan dan modernisasi di segala bidang, masyarakat Samin masih identik dengan masyarakat mekanik dalam hal solidaritas. Hal tersebut dikarenakan masyarakat Samin masih menjunjung tinggi ajaran Saminisme dan mengamalkannya sampai sekarang yang berimplikasi pada kesadaran kolektif yang tinggi., meskipun mengalami berbagai transformasi, masyarakat Samin masih memegang teguh ajaran leluhurnya, yaitu Saminisme.Kata Kunci: Transformasi Sosial; Suku Samin; Pembagian Kerja Emile Durkheim; Solidaritas Organik; Solidaritas MekanikThis study aims to analyze the changes that occur in the Samin Bojonegoro community by using Emile Durkheim’s Division of Work and Social Solidarity. Namely the social change from traditional society to modern society. According to Durkheim, an increase in the system of division of labor in society has implications for changes in the type of social solidarity, that is, in societies with very little division of labor will produce a type of mechanical solidarity, whereas in societies with complex division of labor will produce types of organic solidarity. It starts by describing the lives of the Samin people from their origins, the teachings that are followed and the social changes that occur in them. The form of this study is qualitative research. The data in this study are used to understand and interpret the meaning of events and the behavior patterns of the Samin Bojonegoro community. The data obtained comes from historical documents Samin and literature materials in the form of books, video films and scientific journals. Based on the results of the study it can be seen that the condition of the Samin Bojonegoro community has undergone a transformation from traditional to modern society. Although it has undergone changes and modernization in all fields, the Samin community is still synonymous with a mechanical society in terms of solidarity. That is because the Samin community still upholds the teachings of Saminism and practices it until now which has implications for high collective consciousness., Despite undergoing various transformations, the Samin community still upholds the teachings of its ancestors, namely Saminism.Keywords: Social Transformation; Samin Tribe; Emile Durkheim Division of Work, Organic Solidarity; Mechanical Solidarity


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 169
Author(s):  
Meng-Chueh Hsu ◽  
Shang-Yung Yen

Nonprofit organizations take important roles and functions in our modern society. However, because of the fierce competitions in market and the rapid social changes, nonprofit organizations are facing the same management issues with profit making organizations, such as financial difficulties or lack of resources. In this qualitative research, in order to discuss the issue about nonprofit organization transformation from the prospective of nonprofit management and organization transformation, we interviewed a large nonprofit organization in Taiwan, analyzed the results and provided case studies. We also considered about the social enterprise model to explain the concept between nonprofit organization and social enterprise. In our conclusion, we found that when nonprofit organization transformation took a place and changed the service model into the social enterprise model, the reasons are not limited to the management needs but included to provide the more appropriate services and working approaches. Therefore, the difference between the nonprofit organization and the social enterprise is clarified through this research.


Author(s):  
Марина Александровна Сулоева

Статья посвящена византийскому обряду как одному из ключевых маркеров определения идентичности арбрешской диаспоральной группы, проживающей на территории Сицилии. В условиях быстрого развития коммуникации, растущей мобильности людей наблюдается ослабление социальных связей, размывание этнических границ и снижение ценностных ориентиров. Проблема сохранения самобытности арбрешей и укрепления чувства их этнической принадлежности породила насыщенную культурную жизнь. Итало-албанские приходы в течение долгих лет накапливали информацию об истории, традициях и обычаях своей общины, укрепляли внешние и внутренние связи, благодаря чему между представителями арбрешской диаспоры возникло чувство внутренней сплоченности. Византийский обряд по-прежнему остаётся наиболее устойчивым к трансформации, поскольку местное духовенство отвечает за сохранность религиозной культуры, тесно связанной с социальной средой в целом, а также направляет свою деятельность на культивирование и сохранение арбрешской идентичности. Итало-албанская церковь представляет значительный институт, который движется к новым формам организации или изменяет роль существующих, чтобы реагировать на вызовы современного общества. Итало-албанская церковь высоко ценится своими прихожанами, и все больше воспринимается как религиозный, социальный и культурный институт, ответственный за сохранение ценностей религиозной культуры, тесно связанной с социальной средой в целом. The article is devoted to the Byzantine rite as one of the key markers for the development of the Arbresh diaspora identity in Sicily. Rapid development of communications and increasing mobility of population lead to a weakening of social ties, blurring of ethnic borders and a decrease in values. The fear of losing the identity has given rise to a rich cultural life of the Arbresh. Over the years, parishes of the Italo-Albanian Church have been accumulating information about the history, traditions and customs of their community, strengthening external and internal ties, which inspired a feeling of internal cohesion inside the Arbresh diaspora. The Byzantine rite stays most resistant to transformation, since the local clergy are responsible for the preservation of the religious culture, which is closely related to the social environment as a whole, and directs its activities towards the cultivation and preservation of the Arbresh identity. The Italo-Albanian Church represents a significant institution that moves towards new forms of organization or changes the role of existing ones in order to respond to the challenges of modern society. The Italo-Albanian Church is highly valued by its parishioners and is increasingly perceived as a religious, social and cultural institution responsible for preserving the values ​​of the religious culture, which is closely related to the social environment as a whole.


Author(s):  
Georgi Berikashvili

The article is devoted to the issues of the influence of modern social changes on the social effectiveness of the law. Social values and institutions are changing dramatically, and this must find expression in the rule of law. According to the author, modern social structure is characterized by an unprecedented increase in the complexity of the social organization, the strengthening of cultural and exchange ties, increasing cultural diversity, the formation of standards typical of the era of mass industrial society, and their corresponding personality, trying to realize their creative potential. At the same time, the author notes that in modern society, people often become a mass tool for resolving social conflicts. According to the author, in modern conditions, the social structure has also undergone significant transformations, but the existing social reality is very contradictory. On the one hand, economic efficiency is increasing and the most highly-paid and privileged strata are expanding. On the other hand, for the majority of the population, economic stagnation persists and the socio-economic situation is deteriorating. Keywords: transformation, globalization, social effectiveness of the law.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 54-68
Author(s):  
Anna Zorina ◽  
Alla Mozgovaya

The object of research, the results of which are analyzed in the article, are employees of a number of industries with harmful production, where the risks are fixed at the legislative level. This category is commonly referred to as «risk consumers». The empirical base consists of data 27th «waves» (2018) «The Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Population Health, HSE (RLMS-HSE)». The purpose of the study was to identify factors that may be related to, or even determine, interaction strategies with changes in the social environment of employees of harmful industries. In the aggregate of employees of industries with harmful working conditions, two target groups were formed: those who actually experience harmful effects of risk factors and-conditionally, after working in an industry with harmful production («real» and «conditional» risk consumers). The methodological approach to data analysis in the article is based on the basic attitude of respondents about the strategy of behavior in a situation of risk imposed by the external environment. The preferred strategy of respondents’ behavior in each target group is determined. Further analysis is devoted to identifying signs and factors that can explain the fact that «real risk consumers» are mainly passive adaptants, «conditional risk consumers» are not just active, but actionly-active adaptants. The main conclusion that the analysis allows to make is that the level of adaptation of employees of harmful industries in the social environment and in the sphere of work to a greater extent than personal factors affects the choice of passive or active behavior in a situation of risk imposed by the environment.


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