scholarly journals Forecasting the Anti-Rabies Vaccine Demand at Jawaharlal Medical College and Hospital, Ajmer, Rajasthan: A Comparative Analysis based on Time Series Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-455
Author(s):  
Renu Bedi ◽  
Narendra Verma ◽  
Kunal Gautam ◽  
Varun Agiwal

Background: In India, high mortality and morbidity rates of human rabies is observed. Hence, a structured surveillance system is yet to be put in place for public health discussion. At the tertiary care hospital and all public health centres, requirement of anti-rabies vaccine is needed in advance to predict the upcoming months coverage so that wastage of vaccine is minimum. Objective: To find a suitable model for forecasting the appropriate stock of anti-rabies vaccines to avoid shortage and over-supply at anti rabies clinic. Methods and Material: This was a record based cross sectional study, conducted at anti rabies clinic of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College and Hospital, Ajmer. Data of used anti rabies vaccine was taken from immunization inventory during the period from 2017 to 2020. Time series analysis based on Holt-Winter and Box-Jenkins methods were carried out to predict the need of vaccine. Results: Study series was not stationary and stationarity was observed by taken difference in the observation between two consequent months. Residuals of the series were normally distributed and independent to each other. ARIMA(0, 1, 1) was the best model in comparison to Holt-Winter model for prediction because of low value of model selection criterion.  The forecasted value for anti-rabies vaccine was done for the year 2021. Conclusions: The following study concluded that time series can be used as a tool to forecast anti-rabies vaccine coverage and will help the policy makers to formulate appropriate plans and strategies and improve the management of vaccination resources and inventory.

Author(s):  
Anusha P ◽  
Bankar Nandkishor J ◽  
Karan Jain ◽  
Ramdas Brahmane ◽  
Dhrubha Hari Chandi

INTRODUCTION: India being the second highly populated nation in the world. HIV/AIDS has acquired pandemic proportion in the world. Estimate by WHO for current infection rate in Asia. India has the third largest HIV epidemic in the world. HIV prevalence in the age group 15-49 yrs was an estimate of 0.2%. India has been classified as an intermediate in the Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) endemic (HBsAg carriage 2-7%) zone with the second largest global pool of chronic HBV infections. Safety assessment of the blood supply, the quality of screening measures and the risk of transfusion transmitted infectious diseases (TTIs) in any country can be estimated by scrutinizing the files of blood donors. After the introduction of the blood banks and improved storage facilities, it became more extensively used. Blood is one of the major sources of TTIs like hepatitis B, hepatitis C, HIV, syphilis, and many other blood borne diseases. Disclosure of these threats brought a dramatic change in attitude of physicians and patients about blood transfusion. The objective of this study is to determine the seroprevalence of transfusion transmitted infections amidst voluntary blood donors at a rural tertiary healthcare teaching hospital in Chhattisgarh. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective study was carried out in Chandulal Chandrakar Memorial Medical College, Kachandur, Durg. Blood donors were volunteers, or and commercial donors who donated the blood and paid by patients, their families, or friends to replace blood used or expected to be used for patients from the blood bank of the hospital. After proper donation of blood routine screening of blood was carried out according to standard protocol. Laboratory diagnosis of HIV 1 and HIV 2 was carried out by ELISA test. Hepatitis B surface antigen was screened by using ELISA. RESULTS: A total of 1915 consecutive blood donors’ sera were screened at Chandulal Chandrakar Memorial Medical College, blood bank during study period. Of these 1914 were male and 1 female. The mean age of patients was found to be 29.34 years with standard deviation (SD) of 11.65 Years. Among all blood donors in present study, 759(39.63%) were first time donors and 1156(60.37%) were repeated donors. 1 patient was HIV positive in first donation group while 3 (75%) were positive in repeat donation group. 7 (38.9%) were HBsAg positive in in first donation group while 11(61.1%) were positive in repeat donation group. Two patients in first donation group had dual infection of HIV and HBsAg. CONCLUSION: Seropositivity was high in repeated donors as compared to first time donors. The incidence of HIV is observed to be 0.2% and that of HBsAg is 0.94%. Strict selection of blood donors should be done to avoid transfusion-transmissible infections during the window period.


Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 480
Author(s):  
Rania Kousovista ◽  
Christos Athanasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Liaskonis ◽  
Olga Ivopoulou ◽  
George Ismailos ◽  
...  

Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most difficult-to-treat pathogens worldwide, due to developed resistance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of widely prescribed antimicrobials and the respective resistance rates of A. baumannii, and to explore the relationship between antimicrobial use and the emergence of A. baumannii resistance in a tertiary care hospital. Monthly data on A. baumannii susceptibility rates and antimicrobial use, between January 2014 and December 2017, were analyzed using time series analysis (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models) and dynamic regression models. Temporal correlations between meropenem, cefepime, and ciprofloxacin use and the corresponding rates of A. baumannii resistance were documented. The results of ARIMA models showed statistically significant correlation between meropenem use and the detection rate of meropenem-resistant A. baumannii with a lag of two months (p = 0.024). A positive association, with one month lag, was identified between cefepime use and cefepime-resistant A. baumannii (p = 0.028), as well as between ciprofloxacin use and its resistance (p < 0.001). The dynamic regression models offered explanation of variance for the resistance rates (R2 > 0.60). The magnitude of the effect on resistance for each antimicrobial agent differed significantly.


2021 ◽  
pp. 51-53
Author(s):  
Saryu Sain ◽  
Tupakula Sharmila ◽  
Uttam Kumar ◽  
Anita Anita

Introduction: Placenta is a temporary structure, developed during Pregnancy and discarded at Parturition. Human Placenta is of Discoid and Haemo-Chorial type. It connects the foetus with the mother's womb. It is formed by the contribution of two Individuals - both Mother and Baby. At 1 term four- fth of Placenta is of foetal origin and one- fth is of maternal. Along with Amnion, Chorion, Allantois and Yolk sac, Placenta can also be considered as one of the foetal membranes, which acts as Nutritive and Protective to the developing Embryo. Method: - The present study was done on morphology and morphometry of 150 placentae carried at the Department of Anatomy, Basaveshwara Medical College & Hospital (BMCH), Chitradurga. The placentae were collected with prior ethical clearance and proper consent. Soon after the delivery the placental surface was washed thoroughly under running tap water which were then weighed, tagged and brought to the department of Anatomy, BMCH. The parameters like size, shape and attachment of umbilical cord were noted down. Gross examination was carried out according to the proforma. Result: - The maximum number of placentae belong to the range of 501-600 gms (38.7%). Least placental weight is recorded as 205 gms, showing dispersal pattern. The maximum recorded weight is 835 gms and the average being 491.4 gms. The majority of the placentae are discoid (63.3%). The minimum length recorded is 8.9 cms, maximum as 23.80 cms and the average being 18.3 cms. Conclusion: - Careful examination of Placenta can help in explaining adverse outcomes, their management in subsequent pregnancies and assessment of new born risk.


2021 ◽  
pp. 12-15
Author(s):  
Smarajit Banik ◽  
Sandip Saha ◽  
Sudipan Mitra ◽  
Ujjwal Pattanayak ◽  
Rajib Sikder ◽  
...  

Background: Diabetes mellitus is one of the important causes of morbidity and mortality. With a rise in non communicable diseases in India, diabetes has become a modern epidemic showing a rising trend in West Bengal also. A large number of diabetes patients come to the diabetes clinic of our tertiary care hospital in North Bengal Medical College and Hospital, Darjeeling, West Bengal. The large proportion of patients presenting with this condition prompted us to study the Sociodemographic and Anthropometric Prole of such patients. Methods: This was a descriptive hospital based cross sectional study involving a total of 344 diabetic patients enrolled in the diabetes clinic of a tertiary care teaching hospital from December 2019 to February 2020. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data and was analyzed in Microsoft excel sheet and using SPSS 20.0 software. Results: Among the 344 study participants, we found that 220 (63.95%) were males and 124 (36.05%) were females. Diabetes was more common among those aged 51-60 years 108 (31.40%). Family history was present among 188 (54.65%) of the diabetic patients. Almost 160 (46.51%) patients have diabetes 1.1 – 5 years. Hypertension was present among 216 (62.79%) patients. Almost 218 (63.37%) of the patients were overweight and 84 (24.42%) were obese. Conclusions: The diabetic patients presenting to this tertiary care hospital belong lower socioeconomic strata and having limited education in their age group. There is high proportion of obesity and hypertension among them.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-12
Author(s):  
Shikha Paul ◽  
Sanya Tahmina Jhora ◽  
Prashanta Prasun Dey ◽  
Bilkis Ara Begum

Detection of Extended spectrum beta lactamase (ESBL) enzyme producing bacteria in hospital settings is vital as ESBL genes are transmissible. This study was carried out to determine the distribution of ESBL producing gram negative isolates at a tertiary care hospital in Dhaka city which deals with the patients hailing from relatively low socioeconomic status.Onehundred and twenty four gram negative bacteria isolated from different clinical specimens from outpatient and inpatient departments of Sir Salimullah Medical College and Mitford Hospital (SSMC & MH) were tested for ESBL by E test ESBL method in the department of microbiology of Sir Salimullah medical college (SSMC) from March 2013 to August 2013.Out of 124 gram negative bacteria 69 (55.65%) were positive for ESBL. Among the ESBL producers, Esch.coli was the highest (46.38%) which was followed by Serratia spp (11.59%), Enterobacter spp (10.14%), Proteus spp, (8.70%), Acinetobacter spp.(7.24%) and Klebsiella spp.(5.79%). Out of 32 Esch.coli isolated from outpatient department, 10 (31.25%) were positive for ESBL. On the other hand out of 27 Esch. coli isolated from inpatient department, 22 (81.48%) were positive for ESBL. The difference was statistically significant (p<0.001).So the present study reveals that the distribution of ESBL producers is more among the hospitalized patients than the patients of the community.Bangladesh J Med Microbiol 2016; 10 (1): 8-12


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-47
Author(s):  
Mirza Md Ziaul Islam ◽  
M Mizanur Rahman

Cerebral malaria (CM) is the most severe neurological presentation of acute falciparum malaria. It is a medical emergency, the hallmark of which is the presence of coma probably due to diffuse encephalopathy. A compromised microcirculation with sequestration of parasitized erythrocytes is central to the pathogenesis of cerebral malaria. The death is unacceptably high even with effective antimalarials in tertiary care hospital. The mainstay of treatment of cerebral malaria include prompt diagnosis and early institution of effective antimalarial therapy, recognition of complications, and appropriate supportive management in an ICU. Neurological sequlae are increasingly recognized, but further research on the pathogenesis of coma and neurological damage is required to develop other ancillary treatmentsNorthern International Medical College Journal Vol.6(2) 2015: 45-47


2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-159
Author(s):  
Md. Mostaque Mahmud ◽  
Lubna Khandker ◽  
Md. Shahadat Hossain ◽  
Md. Mostafizur Rahman ◽  
Mohammad Zaid Hossain

J Dhaka Medical College, Vol. 21, No. 2, October, 2012, Page 156-159 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jdmc.v21i2.15338


Author(s):  
Vijoy S. Kairi ◽  
Pinaki Chakravarty ◽  
Arun Kumar Sipani

Background: The mainstay of treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is the use of the disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Methotrexate, sulfasalazine and hydroxychloroquine are some of the DMARDs which are used in combination for the treatment of RA. The current study was undertaken to assess the adverse drug reactions (ADRs) of DMARDs that are commonly encountered with the treatment of RA.Methods: The present study was designed as a prospective, observational study on newly diagnosed patients with RA. Patients diagnosed with RA above 18 years (excluding pregnant women) of either sex who were prescribed DMARDs in combination were included. ADRs reported spontaneously by the patients and also responses obtained in a questionnaire related to likely ADRs from the patients was recorded in the case record form. Statistical analysis was done using graph pad and p value <0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.Results: A total of 47 patients attending the Outpatient Department of Orthopaedics, Silchar Medical College and Hospital, Silchar, Assam, India were screened for the study. ADRs were monitored up to the last visit on 41 patients excluding the patients who were lost and who were not able to adhere to the treatment. A total of 27 ADRs were reported from 19 ADR forms. Gastrointestinal manifestations were the most common adverse effects of combination DMARDs seen in 10 patients (24.39%). Severity assessment done using modified Hartwig and Siegel scale that showed majority of the ADRs were mild (74.07%).Conclusions: Present study showed that DMARDs are well-tolerated and have an acceptable toxicity profile as majority of ADRs seen were mild. It was however difficult to prevent the occurrence of ADRs. Proper monitoring of therapy is needed for early recognition of ADRs.


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