scholarly journals Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (272) ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Bannister ◽  
Harald Finger ◽  
Yosuke Kido ◽  
Siddharth Kothari ◽  
Elena Loukoianova

While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.

Subject Ivory Coast economic update. Significance The post-civil war growth spurt is expected to taper to around 7% per annum over the medium-term, from an average of 9% during 2012-16. While this partly reflects a gradual slowdown in productivity, it also underscores the influence of public investment on Ivory Coast's growth. With public investment expected to decline, the most likely source of near-term growth is foreign direct investment (FDI), which picked up last year, albeit from a low base. Impacts Government revenues may decline as petrol taxes are reduced to absorb the impact on pump prices of a recent spike in oil prices. Ivory Coast-Ghana proposals on synchronising cocoa production will likely be overshadowed by smuggling and a lack of political will. Apart from Niger, all countries in WAEMU will meet the bloc's fiscal targets on time.


2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.


Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  

Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.


FEDS Notes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (2463) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan M. Londono ◽  
◽  
Sai Ma ◽  
Beth Anne Wilson ◽  
◽  
...  

In this note, we construct a measure of real economic uncertainty (REU)--based on the predictability of near-term economic performance--for the major advanced economies.


2019 ◽  
pp. 46-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Klimanov ◽  
Sofiya М. Kazakova ◽  
Anna A. Mikhaylova

The article examines the impact of various socio-economic and financial indicators on the resilience of Russian regions. For each region, the integral index of resilience is calculated, and its correlation dependence with the selected indicators is revealed. The study confirms the relationship between fiscal resilience and socio-economic resilience of the regions. The analysis of panel data for 75 regions from 2007 to 2016 shows that there are significant differences in the dynamics of indicators in different periods. In particular, the degree of exposure to the negative effects of the crises of 2008—2009 and 2014—2015 in non-resilient regions is higher than in resilient ones.


1973 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-439
Author(s):  
G. M. Radhul

The book under review deals with economic integration among deve¬loping countries from the point of view of planning. The author believes that it is useful to approach economic integration from a planning point of view and to develop planning models for it, because the theory of economic integration relevant for developing countries should be directed towards the impact of integration on future investments and future production. The type of models used in the book are the multisector linear programming models and the method of analysis is essentially a comparison of two situations; one with economic integration and the other without. For each prospective partici¬pant a medium term planning model is drawn up taking account of its economic situation in some base year. The results of these single country planning models are analysed and compared to those of a similar planning model for the integration area as a whole. The consequences of the integration policy are then evaluated.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.


2019 ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
V. L. Harutyunyan ◽  
S. V. Dokholyan ◽  
A. R. Makaryan

The presented study discusses the issues of applying the Common Customs Tariff (CCT) rates of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on rough diamonds and the impact thereof on the exports of stones cut and polished inArmeniaand then exported toRussia.Aim. The study aims to identify the possible strategies Armenian diamond cutting and polishing companies could adopt as a response to the application of the CCT rates on rough diamonds and how it would affect exports to various destinations, namely to Russia.Tasks. The authors analyze the current state of the gems and jewelry sector and substantiate the need to either integrate it into the jewelry manufacturing sector or to apply various strategies to facilitate exports to either Russia or other destinations in the medium term in response to the application of the CCT rates.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, including analytical and methodological approaches and elements of forecasting. Possible strategies the Armenian diamond cutting and polishing companies could adopt in the medium term in response to the application of the EAEU CCT rates are determined using the analytical research method, forecasts in the context of the developments in the Armenian gem processing and jewelry market and global trends, statistical data on the imports and exports of cut and polished gems and jewelry for 2014–2018 published by the UN Comtrade Statistics.Results. Statistics on the exports of processed diamonds from 2014 to 2018 highlights the issue associated with the loss of competitiveness suffered by Armenian companies (mainly in comparison with Indian diamond cutters). The major global trends in the diamond cutting and polishing business indicate that it could be virtually impossible for Armenian cutters and polishers to compete with Indian companies in the medium term if they do not comes to investing in new technology to achieve operational efficiency. For these companies, it is important not to lose the Russian market due to an increase in the tariff rate and concentrate on the processing of gems that are larger than 1 carat. Another strategy to avoid an increase in the customs tariff rates would depend on the Armenian government’s ability to negotiate with Russia in respect of direct imports of diamond stones from Russian manufactures. Two other options for Armenian cutters involve focusing on cutting and polishing of rubies, sapphires, emeralds, etc. or integrating into the jewelry sector either by being the primary supplier or by considering this business as a channel to sell processed diamond stones by setting up their own jewelry manufacturing companies.Conclusions. With CCT going into effect in January 2021 and India’s dominant role in the diamond cutting and polishing business, Armenia needs to carefully consider all of the strategies the Armenian companies could adopt, as discussed above. As a member state of the EAEU, Armenia freely exports to Russia, however, further exports to Russia would depend on Armenia’s ability to ensure that cost-effective operations are in place, or to concentrate on the processing of precious gems rather than diamonds, or to switch to the manufacturing of jewelry items as a major export item.Practical Implication. The findings of this study could be of interest to the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Armenia and Business Armenia that could be used in elaborating the strategy for the development of Armenian gems and jewelry sector of the economy.


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