scholarly journals PENGARUH PDB, INFLASI, KURS DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilham Tri Murdo ◽  
Junaidi Affan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract   This study is to determine the extent to which the independent variable factors (GDP, Inflation, Exchange and Interest Rates) affect the dependent variable (Trade Balance) in the last 20 years. Quantitative research aims to obtain empirical evidence regarding the effect of the variables of GDP, Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on the Trade Balance, and also to test hypotheses to strengthen or even reject the hypothesis. With the following results: GDP has a negative and insignificant effect on the Trade Balance, Inflation has a negative and significant effect on the Trade Balance, the Exchange Rate has no and no significant effect on the Trade Balance, Interest Rates have no and no significant effect on the Trade Balance and GDP, INflation , Exchange and Interest Rates together (simultaneously) have a significant and significant effect on the Trade Balance

PENGARUH PERUBAHAN SUKU BUNGA SBI DAN PERUBAHAN KURS USD/IDR TERHADAP HARGA PASAR SAHAM PT. BANK CENTRAL ASIA (BCA) TBK

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Maswir Mutakhir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Independent Variable

This study aims to determine whether changes in SBI interest rates and changes in the USD / IDR exchange rate have an influence on the PT BCA Stock Market Price during the period January 2015-December 2019. The data used are secondary data provided by relevant institutions. The research method uses multiple linear regression models. To test the significance of the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable partially, the t test is used. The partial test results on changes in the independent variable on changes in the dependent variable note that changes in SBI Interest Rates have a negative and insignificant effect on the Stock Market Price of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, while The USD / IDR exchange rate has a positive and insignificant effect on the Stock Market Price of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. The value of the coefficient of determination is 4.2%, which means that the proportion of changes in the PT BCA Stock Market Price which can be explained by variations in changes in SBI interest rates and changes in the exchange rate of USD / IDR is 4.2%, while the remaining 95.8% is explained. by other variables. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah perubahan Suku Bunga SBI dan perubahan Kurs USD/IDR mempunyai pengaruh terhadap Harga Pasar Saham PT BCA selama periode Januari 2015–Desember 2019. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang disediakan lembaga yang relevan. Metode penelitian  menggunakan model regresi linier berganda. Untuk menguji signifikansi pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen secara parsial digunakan uji t.Hasil pengujian secara parsial atas  perubahan variabel independen terhadap perubahan variabel dependen diketahui bahwa perubahan Suku Bunga SBI mempunyai pengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap Harga Pasar Saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, sedangkan Kurs USD/IDR mempunyai pengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap Harga Pasar Saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. Nilai Koefisien Determinasi adalah sebesar 4,2% yang artinya besarnya proporsi variasi perubahan Harga Pasar Saham PT BCA yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi perubahan tingkat Suku Bunga SBI dan perubahan Kurs USD/IDR adalah sebesar 4,2% sedangkan sisanya sebesar 95,8% dijelaskan oleh variabel lainnya.

scholarly journals Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Y. Aharon ◽  
Zaghum Umar ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Static Analysis ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
The Exchange Rate

AbstractThis study examines the connectedness between the US yield curve components (i.e., level, slope, and curvature), exchange rates, and the historical volatility of the exchange rates of the main safe-haven fiat currencies (Canada, Switzerland, EURO, Japan, and the UK) and the leading cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin. Results of the static analysis show that the level and slope of the yield curve are net transmitters of shocks to both the exchange rate and its volatility. The exchange rate of the Euro and the volatility of the Euro and the Canadian dollar exchange rate are net transmitters of shocks. Meanwhile, the curvature of the yield curve and the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound act mainly as net receivers. Our static connectedness analysis shows that Bitcoin is mainly independent of shocks from the yield curve’s level, slope, and curvature, and from any main currency investigated. These findings hint that Bitcoin might provide hedging benefits. However, similar to the static analysis, our dynamic analysis shows that during different periods and particularly in stressful times, Bitcoin is far from being isolated from other currencies or the yield curve components. The dynamic analysis allows us to observe Bitcoin’s connectedness in times of stress. Evidence supporting this contention is the substantially increased connectedness due to policy shocks, political uncertainty, and systemic crisis, implying no empirical support for Bitcoin’s safe-haven property during stress times. The increased connectedness in the dynamic analysis compared with the static approach implies that in normal times and especially in stressful times, Bitcoin has the property of a diversifier. The results may have important implications for investors and policymakers regarding their risk monitoring and their assets allocation and investment strategies.

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate and Dow Jones Index to Indonesia Composite Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange on the Year 2013-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 50-60
Author(s):  
Hasanudin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Work Motivation ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the influence of inflation, currency exchange rates, SBI interest rates, and the Dow Jones index on the Jakarta Composite Index on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2018. Methods of quantitative research utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analytic techniques in conjunction with the use of SmartPLS 3. The findings of this study indicate that inflation has a substantial negative influence on the CSPI. This indicates that as inflation increases, the JCI decreases. The exchange rate has a substantial negative effect on the JCI. This demonstrates that the exchange rate variable has a direct effect on the direction of the high exchange rate, lowering the JCI in the process. The SBI interest rate has no effect on the JCI and is rather detrimental to it. This indicates that when the number of SBI interest rates increases, the CSPI remains same. The Dow Jones index has a sizable positive correlation with the CSPI. This indicates that the Dow Jones index's rise has an effect on the JCI. By a factor of 0.982, the Dow Jones Index has the greatest effect on work motivation, followed by inflation, exchange rates, and SBI interest rates on the IHSG on the 2013-2018 Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and World Oil Prices on Gold Prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar Exchange Rate as an Intermediary Variable

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Path Coefficient ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar exchange rate as an intermediary variable. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. Hypothesis testing in this study uses path analysis, is a development technique of multiple linear regression. This technique is used to test the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between cariables X1, X2, and X3 on and its impact on Z. The results of this study indicate that the effect of inflation, interest rates and worl oil prices on exchange rates individually has very little effect. The effect of inflation, interest rates, world oil prices and the exchange rate on gold prices individually shows a negative value for inflation and interest rates means that the effect is small, while for the world oil price and the dollar exchange rates shows a positive value which means that it has a large effect on the price of gold. The effect of inflation, interest rates and world oil prices on gold prices through the exchange rate, all variable show a negative value, this indicates that the effect is very small.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of the Exchange Rate and Extension of Monetary Trilemma

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-49
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Allahyarifard ◽  
Mostafa Karimzadeh ◽  
Mohammad Ali Falahi ◽  
Ali Akbar Naji Meidani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
General Level ◽  
External Imbalances ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Assets

Simultaneous making policy of interest rates, exchange rates and capital accounts can be extended to trilemma theory, contrary to its earlier theories, provided that the imbalances of the private sector, the government and the capital account adjusted through the policy variables such as the government expenditures, the interest rates on domestic deposits, the interest rates on domestic loans, effective exchange rates, foreign prices and foreign interest rates. On the other hand, the components of the extension of trilemma theory in the form of internal and external imbalances affect the exchange rate. In other words, if the real sector markets of the economy are not cleared through the aforementioned trilemma components, and policy variables, internal and external imbalances will be affected by opposite direction of net domestic assets (ΔNDA) and net foreign assets (ΔNFA) of the banking system. This is in accordance with the fundamental principles of the monetary approach balance of payments and exchange rate. Policy variables do not put pressure on the unofficial exchange rate as long as they have the same effect on the net changes in the domestic and foreign assets of the banking system. The purpose of this study is to consider the effect of internal and external imbalances on exchange rate through the simultaneous equations system, generating impulses in policy variables, and examining reactions in Iranian economy. In this paper, the monetary exchange rate determination model is analyzed and examined by using the extension of trilemma theory for macroeconomic data of Iran in the form of internal and external imbalances. The results of this study suggest that policy variables can stabilize the unofficial exchange rate (with other conditions being constant) through trading off internal and external imbalances. Thus, the economic policymaker can, while independently policing interest rates, capital accounts and government expenditures and other policy variables in this research, maintain exchange rate stability as a strategic variable and anchor the general level of prices.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-209
Author(s):  
Muslihul Umam ◽  
Isabela Isabela
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstrak Inflasi merupakan salah satu indikator perekonomian yang penting, laju perubahannya selalu diupayakan rendah dan stabil. Inflasi yang tinggi dan tidak stabil merupakan cerminan akan kecenderungan naiknya tingkat harga barang dan jasa secara umum dan terus menerus sehingga akan melemahkan daya beli masyrakat yang nantinya akan berdampak pada penurunan pendapatan nasional. Oleh karena itu diharapkan adanya pengendalian laju inflasi yang akhir-akhir ini menunjukkan grafik yang meningkat. Penelitian ini membahas tentang “Analisis Pengaruh Suku bunga dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 1985-2014”, bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh suku bunga, dan nilai kurs terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan error correction model (ECM). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia, nilai kurs RP/US Dollar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia.   Keywords: tingkat inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai kurs.   Abstract Inflation is one of the important economic indicators, the rate of change is always besought low and stable. High and unstable inflation is a reflection of the tendency to increase the level of prices of goods and services in general and continuously so that it will weaken the purchasing power of the people which will reduce national incomelater. Therefore, it is expected to control the inflation rate, which lately shows an increasing graph. This study discusses "The analysis of the Influence of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates to the Inflation Rate in Indonesia for the Period 1985-2014", aims to determine the effect of interest rates, and the exchange rate on the inflation rate in Indonesia using the error correction model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia, the exchange rate of Rupiah / US dollar has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia.   Keywords: Inflation Rate, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates.

scholarly journals Estimasi model neraca perdagangan Indonesia dalam periode 1998-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Liza Azizah ◽  
Syamsurijal Tan ◽  
Emilia Emilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Balance Dynamics ◽  
Descriptive Method

This study aims to analyze Indonesia's trade balance dynamics and the factors that influence fluctuations in Indonesia's trade balance in the period 1998-2017. The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method. The data used in this study is time-series data on Indonesia's trade balance, exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates from 1998-2017. The data is processed through multiple regression analysis and development model analysis. The results showed that the variables of the exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates simultaneously significantly affected Indonesia's trade balance. Partially, the exchange rate, GDP, and interest rates have a significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance. In contrast, inflation does not substantially impact Indonesia's trade balance during the study period. R-square is 0.6882 or 68.82%, which means that Indonesia's trade balance for 1998-2017 is influenced by exchange rates, GDP, inflation, and interest rates, while other factors outside the estimation model influence the remaining 31.18%. Keywords: Trade balance, Exchange rate, GDP, Inflation, Interest rates.

scholarly journals The effect of interest rates, exchange rates and capital structure on banking profitability of BUMN and Private Go Public in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-351
Author(s):  
Debby Wulandari ◽  
Agus Harjito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to examine and analyze the influence of interest rates, exchange rates and capital structure on profitability in state-owned and private banking go public in Indonesia. This research is quantitative research based on the study of empirical rational principles. Collecting data using secondary data with purposive sampling technique, the sample consists of Commercial Banks Business Group (BUKU IV) with core capital > Rp 30 trillion. The data analysis technique used panel data regression analysis using EVIEWS version 11 software. The results showed that the interest rate had a positive and significant effect on banking profitability; Exchange Rate has a negative and significant effect on Banking Profitability; Capital Structure has a positive and significant effect on Banking Profitability; Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Capital Structure simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on Banking Profitability

scholarly journals ANALISIS HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA,TINGKAT INFLASI, DAN HARGA SAHAM DENGAN KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 571
Author(s):  
Resti Junia Sari ◽  
Sri Ulfa Sentosa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The aim of this study is to see and analyze the relationship of causality between:1. The interest rate with IDR (Indonesian Rupiah) towards USD (United States Dollar). (2) the inflation rate with IDR towards USD (3) The stock prices with IDR towards UDS.This study was conducted by using qualitative with descriptive and associative, where the data was used secondary data in the form of time series from the year 2006, first quarter to the year 2016 first quarter that was obtained from the relevant institutions. To analyze the data, this study have used vector autoregressive (VAR) in order to see the relation between casuallity and variable.The finding has shown that the exchange rate and interest rate do not have a causal relationship rather than a unidirectional correlation, it means thatthe exchange rates ,both it is high or low, have no influence to interest rates  however the interest rates will give an effect to exchange rate movements. Moreover, the exchange rates as well as the inflation do not have a causal relationship even one-way relationship, thus the changes in inflation have no effects to exchange rate movements and vice versa. While the exchange rates along with stock prices do not have a causal relation but stock prices have a one-way connection with the exchange rate. By this, the exchange rate movements do not have a relation with stock price movements but movements in stock prices have a relation to exchange rate movements.

scholarly journals The Relationship between the Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation: The Case of Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-275
Author(s):  
Ercan Özen ◽  
Letife Özdemir ◽  
Simon Grima
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The purpose of the study is to measure the effects of changes in exchange rates and interest rates on inflation and to determine which of the exchange rates or interest rates has a greater impact on inflation rate following the July 15, 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. Our expectation is that similar to most authors is to find that there is a long-term relationship between the inflation rates and both the exchange rate and interest rates and that the effect of the exchange rate on the Producer Price Index (PPI) is greater than that of the interest rates. Moreover, we expect to find a unidirectional causality relationship between the Interest Rate of Commercial Banks Credit (IRBC), Over Night Interest Rate (O/N) and United States Dollar (USD) and the PPI, but not between the IRBC, O/N, USD and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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