Towards detecting biogeochemical compound extremes in the surface ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friederike Fröb ◽  
Tatiana Ilyina
Keyword(s):  
Oxygen Concentration ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ion Concentration ◽  
Hydrogen Ion Concentration ◽  
Surface Ocean ◽  
Threshold Criterion ◽  
The Impact

<p>Long-term changes in ocean biogeochemistry that are projected under an evolving climate in the 21<sup>st</sup> century are superimposed by short-term extreme events. Of particular interest are compound events, where such extreme events occur successively or simultaneously, combining or amplifying the impact of multiple stressors on ocean ecosystems. The resilience of marine species to the simultaneous exposure of extremely high temperature, low pH and low oxygen concentration presumably depends on the magnitude and variability of the perturbation, which is likely to increase and intensify in response to rising global mean temperatures. However, changes in marine heat waves, ocean acidification and deoxygenation extremes, remain to be detected, in order to quantify their combined impact. Here, we use the Grand Ensemble of the fully coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-GE) that consists of 100 members forced by historical CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and those according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). The daily frequency of the simulation output for sea surface temperature, hydrogen ion concentration and oxygen concentration allows analysing spatio-temporal changes of marine extreme events between 1850 and 2100. We assess the number, duration, and intensity of extreme states using a moving threshold criterion, and aim to identify concurrent and consecutive driving mechanisms for such events in the surface ocean in order to evaluate potential risks for the marine ecosystem.</p>

Characterizing hydro-meteorological extremes from a societal perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Bogdanovich ◽  
Lars Guenther ◽  
Markus Reichstein ◽  
Georg Ruhrmann ◽  
René Orth
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Apparent Temperature ◽  
Temperature Threshold ◽  
Temperature Thresholds ◽  
The Impact

<p>Extreme hydro-meteorological events often affect the economy, social life, health, and well-being. One indicator for the impact of extreme events on society is the concurrently increased societal attention. Such increases can help to measure and understand the vulnerability of the society to extreme events, and to evaluate the relevance of an event, which is important for disaster research and risk management. In this study, we analyzed and characterized hydro-meteorological extreme events from a societal impact perspective. In particular, we investigated the impact of heat waves on societal attention in European countries with contrasting climate (Germany, Spain, and Sweden) using Google trends data during 2010–2019. Thus, we seek to answer two general research questions: (i) how and when do extreme events trigger societal attention, (ii) are there temperature thresholds at which societal attention increases? </p><p>To describe heat waves, we used maximum, minimum, average, and apparent temperature, aggregated to a weekly time scale. We analyzed the relationship between temperature and societal attention using piecewise regression to identify potential temperature-related thresholds in societal attention. The threshold is determined as the breaking point between two linear models fitted to data. We determined the corresponding goodness of fit by computing R<sup>2</sup> for each temperature variable. The variable with the highest R<sup>2</sup> is considered as the most influential one.</p><p>The overall relationship between temperature and Google attention to heat waves is significant in all countries and reveals clear temperature thresholds. The variable with the highest explanatory power is the weekly average of the daily maximum temperatures, which accounts for 71% of google attention in Germany, 51 % in Sweden, and 38 % in Spain. For Germany, similar results are found with media attention. In Sweden, with its colder climate, a lower temperature threshold is identified, indicating higher heat vulnerability. No significant impact of temperatures from the previous weeks is found. While further work is needed to improve the understanding of the attention-heat coupling, the demonstrated significant societal attention response to heat waves offers the opportunity to characterize heat waves from an impact perspective using the identified temperature variables, time scales, and thresholds.</p>

scholarly journals Environmental Factors Causing the Development of Microorganisms on the Surfaces of National Cultural Monuments Made of Mineral Building Materials—Review

Coatings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1203
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Stanaszek-Tomal
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Ion Concentration ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Hydrogen Ion Concentration ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Stone Concrete ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cultural Monuments

The ability of microorganisms to degrade building materials depends on several factors. Biological corrosion occurs in close dependence with chemical and physical factors affecting microorganisms. The growth and development of microorganisms is stimulated by external stimuli, i.e., environmental factors. Microorganisms have a relatively large tolerance range for changes in environmental conditions. Under the right conditions, microorganisms thrive very well. The adverse effects may cause the inhibition of cell growth, damage, or lead to the death of the microorganism. Considering the impact of environmental factors on microorganisms, it is not possible to identify the most important of them. The result effect of overlapping factors determines the possibility of the growth of certain microorganisms. The main factors affecting the growth are temperature, humidity, hydrogen ion concentration in the environment, oxidoreductive potential, water activity in the environment, and hydrostatic pressure. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the factors causing biodeterioration. The influence of external/internal environment on the surface of cultural monuments made of mineral building materials, i.e., stone, concrete, mortar, etc., is presented.

Forecasting climate extremes to aid decisions on multi-week timescales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine de Burgh-Day ◽  
Debbie Hudson ◽  
Oscar Alves ◽  
Morwenna Griffiths ◽  
Andrew Marshall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Defensive Responses ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

<p>Extreme events such as droughts, heat waves and floods can have significant and long lasting financial, infrastructural and environmental impacts. While probabilistic seasonal outlooks are commonplace, there are relatively few probabilistic outlooks available on multiweek timescales. Additionally, many services focus on the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes – e.g., forecasts of probability of above or below median, or probability of mean conditions exceeding some threshold. These do not encompass the types of extreme events that can be the most damaging, such as several consecutive days of extreme heat, unusually large numbers of cold days in a season, or an extended period where rainfall is in the lowest decile of historical years.</p><p>Advance warning of extreme events that impact particular industries enable managers to put in place response measures which can help to reduce their losses. This can involve:</p><ul><li>Active responses which aim to reduce the severity of the impact. For example, losses in dairy production due to extreme heat can be mitigated by adjusting grazing rotations such that cows are in shadier paddocks during these events</li> <li>Defensive responses which aim to account for any losses incurred due to an event. For example, the purchase of new farm equipment can be deferred if a forecast extreme event indicates a likely unavoidable financial loss in the near future</li> </ul><p>To meet this need, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is developing a suite of forecast products communicating risk of extreme events using data from the Bureau’s new seasonal forecasting system ACCESS-S. Each prototype forecast product is trialed with external users through a webpage to assess usefulness and popularity.</p>

scholarly journals Evidence for the Impact of Climate Change on Primary Producers in the Southern Ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew H. Pinkerton ◽  
Philip W. Boyd ◽  
Stacy Deppeler ◽  
Alex Hayward ◽  
Juan Höfer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Phytoplankton Biomass ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Recent Change ◽  
Key Species ◽  
The Impact

Within the framework of the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO), this paper brings together analyses of recent trends in phytoplankton biomass, primary production and irradiance at the base of the mixed layer in the Southern Ocean and summarises future projections. Satellite observations suggest that phytoplankton biomass in the mixed-layer has increased over the last 20 years in most (but not all) parts of the Southern Ocean, whereas primary production at the base of the mixed-layer has likely decreased over the same period. Different satellite models of primary production (Vertically Generalised versus Carbon Based Production Models) give different patterns and directions of recent change in net primary production (NPP). At present, the satellite record is not long enough to distinguish between trends and climate-related cycles in primary production. Over the next 100 years, Earth system models project increasing NPP in the water column in the MEASO northern and Antarctic zones but decreases in the Subantarctic zone. Low confidence in these projections arises from: (1) the difficulty in mapping supply mechanisms for key nutrients (silicate, iron); and (2) understanding the effects of multiple stressors (including irradiance, nutrients, temperature, pCO2, pH, grazing) on different species of Antarctic phytoplankton. Notwithstanding these uncertainties, there are likely to be changes to the seasonal patterns of production and the microbial community present over the next 50–100 years and these changes will have ecological consequences across Southern Ocean food-webs, especially on key species such as Antarctic krill and silverfish.

Occurrence and impacts of heat waves events in a glacierized basin in the subtropical Andes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Bravo ◽  
Pablo Paredes ◽  
Nicolás Donoso ◽  
Sebastián Cisternas
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Subtropical Andean glaciers are losing mass in response to the long-term atmospheric warming and precipitation decrease. Extreme events as heat waves, however, seems to potentially play a key role in the sustained ice loss detected in the last decades. Increased frequency of heat wave events have been detected in the central valley of Chile, however, the occurrence and impact of these events on the Andean cryosphere remain unknown. The main reason is associated with the lack of meteorological observations at higher elevations in the Andes. </p><p>In filling this gap, we present an assessment of the occurrence of heat waves in the glacierized Río Olivares basin (33°S), which comprise an elevation range between ~1500  and ~6000 m a.s.l. and where a strong ice loss has been detected during the last decades. The main aim is to analyse the correspondence of heat waves events occurred with those in the nearby city of Santiago located in the central valley of Chile and to assess the potential impacts of these events on the glaciers located in this basin. Using meteorological observations in Río Olivares basin and in Santiago between the years 2013 and 2020, heat wave events were determined. We estimated the heat wave events using the monthly 90th percentile and the adjustment of a harmonic function. An additional adjustment relative to the climate period 1981-2010 was also introduced. The results determined 66 events in the Río Olivares basin while in Santiago were 53 events. These results reveal high spatial variability in the occurrences of heat waves as only 49% of the events in Santiago were detected in the Río Olivares basin. Ongoing work is focused on analysing the impacts of these events over the glaciers of the basin. Here, through the use of the computed basin-scale 0°C isotherm, the relation between glacier area under melt (i.e. glacier area located below the 0°C isotherm) and the heat wave events will be shown. The findings of this works reinforce the need for more observational efforts over high elevations in the Andes in order to robustly assess and at a basin scale, the impact of extreme events on the Andean cryosphere.</p>

An approach towards addressing meteorological factors for extreme event impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uwe Ulbrich ◽  
Jens Grieger
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
The Impact

<p>The ClimXtreme program funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research is designed to address Physics and Processes, Statistics, and Impacts of meteorological extreme events, considering both the past period covered by instrumental measurements, and future climate scenarios. In its branch on impacts, the impact of hazards in Europe (convective events, severe precipitation, heat waves and droughts, and large scale storms) shall be considered in order to identify the underlying relevant weather situations and the antecedent meteorological factors. The specific characteristics of the extreme events shall also be explored. Aiming at a better understanding of the impacts of the extremes, investigations shall go beyond quantification of the local severity of a hazard. The assumption is that there is also an influence of weather and climate on exposure and vulnerability. These factors for the occurrence and the magnitude of damaging impacts  thus depend on local climatology, the occurrence of specific weather sequences augmenting vulnerability, or the occurrence of specific combinations of factors which individually needn’t be extreme (compound events).  One starting point are thus already existing impact models, which do not take (all of) these factors into account. Results from numerical climate models will be used to estimate the future change of risks under climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Navigating the Future V: Marine Science for a Sustainable Future

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
European Marine Board ◽  
Ferdinando Boero ◽  
Valerie Cummins ◽  
Jeremy Gault ◽  
Geir Huse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Common Good ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
The State ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Marine Research ◽  
Sustainable Future ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Navigating the Future is a publication series produced by the European Marine Board providing future perspectives on marine science and technology in Europe. Navigating the Future V (NFV) highlights new knowledge obtained since Navigating the Future IV (2013). It is set within the framework of the 2015 Paris Agreement and builds on the scientific basis and recommendations of the IPCC reports. NFV gives recommendations on the science required during the next decade to deliver the ocean we need to support a sustainable future. This will be important for the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021 – 2030), the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the European Commission’s next framework programme, Horizon Europe (2021 - 2027). There is a growing need to strengthen the links between marine science, society and policy since we cannot properly manage what we do not know. In recent years, the ocean and seas have received new prominence in international agendas. To secure a safe planet a priority is the management of the ocean as a “common good for humanity”, which requires smarter observations to assess of the state of the ocean and predictions about how it may change in the future. The ocean is a three-dimensional space that needs to be managed over time (thus four-dimensional), and there is a need for management and conservation practices that integrate the structure and function of marine ecosystems in these four dimensions. This includes understanding the dynamic spatial and temporal interplay between ocean physics, chemistry and biology. Multiple stressors including climate change, pollution and over-fishing affect the ocean and we need to better understand and predict their interactions and identify tipping points to decide on management priorities. This should integrate our understanding of land-ocean-atmosphere processes and approaches to reducing impacts. An improved science base is also needed to help predict and minimize the impact of extreme events such as storm surges, heat waves, dynamic sea-floor processes and tsunamis. New technologies, data handling and modelling approaches will help us to observe, understand and manage our use of the four-dimensional ocean and the effect of multiple stressors. Addressing these issues requires a strategic, collective and holistic approach and we need to build a community of sustainability scientists that are able to provide evidence-based support to policy makers within the context of major societal challenges. We outline the new frontiers, gaps and recommendations needed to manage the ocean as a common good and to develop solutions for a sustainable future. The governance of sustainability should be at the core of the marine research agenda through co-production and collaboration with stakeholders to identify priorities. There is need for a fully integrated scientific assessment of resilience strategies, associated trade-offs and underlying ethical concepts for the ocean, which should be incorporated into decision support frameworks that involve stakeholders from the outset. To accurately assess the state of the ocean and make predictions for the future, research programmes should be co-designed with stakeholders. Achieving the ocean we need for a sustainable future by 2030 will require sustainability science, which is holistic and transdisciplinary. To allow the collection, processing and access to all data, a key priority is the development of a business model that ensures the long-term economic sustainability of ocean observations.

scholarly journals Effects of Extreme Ambient Temperature on Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shandiz Moslehi ◽  
Mohsen Dowlati
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Cardiovascular Outcomes ◽  
Cold Wave ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Extreme weather or climate, including heat waves and cold waves, is considered a health issue causing adverse effects on health, such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), mortality and morbidity. Thus, this systematic review aimed to study the impacts of extreme ambient temperature on cardiovascular outcomes. Material and Methods: This study was carried out based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol. Papers about the ambient temperature and cardiovascular outcomes were searched in the scientific database, including ISI, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar, from January 1970 up to the end of 2020. We used the key terms, such as “heat wave”, “cold wave”, “extreme event”, “cardiovascular disease”, “mortality”, and “morbidity”. The thematic analysis method was used to determine all themes and analyze the data. Results: Among the 7631 searched and extracted papers, 20 articles met the eligibility criteria for including the process of final analysis. Effects of extreme events included mortality, morbidity, and hospitalization due to CVD. A relationship between extreme events and CVD mortality was confirmed for cerebrovascular diseases, including congestive heart failure (CHF), ischemic heart diseases (IHD), myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrhythmia, coronary heart disease (CHD), out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and blood pressure. Conclusion: The present study indicated the impact of extreme ambient temperature on CVD outcomes. The findings provided adaptation and preventive measures and strategies which can be used for CVD patients and managers to prevent CVD due to ambient temperature.

scholarly journals Coastal oceanographic signatures of heat waves and extreme events of dense water formation during the period 2002-2012 (Barcelona, NW Mediterranean)

2019 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Guillén ◽  
Laura Arin ◽  
Jordi Salat ◽  
Pere Puig ◽  
Marta Estrada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Additional Tool ◽  
Dense Water ◽  
Western Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Water Formation ◽  
Dense Water Formation

In a global context of climate change affecting the marine environment, it is important to consider the effect of extreme events in driving ecological change and to gain a better understanding of conditions to be expected under future scenarios. In this study we focus on monthly oceanographic data collected off Barcelona city during the period 2002-2012, in which extreme air temperatures and exceptional oceanographic events were reported in the western Mediterranean basin. These included two extreme heat waves and major episodes of dense water formation that produced unusually large deep-water contributions, induced oceanographic changes in the coastal zone and caused significant alterations to the marine ecosystem. To determine whether routine monitoring of oceanographic variables in a coastal zone can provide information for recognizing such large-scale events, temperature, salinity, turbidity and fluorescence were analysed to identify their signatures. The results provide an additional tool for monitoring oceanographic events and improving forecasts and future projections.

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