Assessing the impact of climate change on Southeast Asia’s hydropower availability

<p>Southeast Asia&#8217;s electricity supply largely depends on the hydropower resources of the Mekong, Chao Phraya, Irrawaddy, and Salween River Basins. Uncertain precipitation patterns, rising temperature, and other climate-driven changes are exposing these resources to unprecedented risks, prompting decision makers to re-evaluate existing reservoir management strategies through climate change risk assessments. These assessments are important in shaping the operators&#8217; response to hydro-climatic variability and are necessary to ensure energy security in the region. In this study, we developed high-resolution, semi-distributed hydrological models to examine the potential changes of hydropower availability under projected future climate scenarios in the four largest river basins in South East Asia. Specifically, we relied on a novel variant of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model that integrates reservoir operations into the routing scheme, warranting a more accurate representation of cascade reservoir systems. Climate change impacts were derived from the outputs of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) forced by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 2.6 and 8.5) emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We find that hydropower generation would be altered significantly in all scenarios in terms of temporal variability and magnitude due to the changes in duration and magnitude of the summer monsoon. Our findings further stress the importance of exploring how the impact of climate change on hydropower availability propagates through water-energy systems and call for adaptive reservoir operation strategies.</p>

Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

Global NEST Journal ◽

10.30955/gnj.001658 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 594-606 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Catchment Area ◽

River Basins ◽

Weather Data ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Eastern India ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

<div> <p>The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems. </p> </div> <p> </p>

Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102141 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2141 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Saddique ◽

Usman ◽

Bernhofer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

High Elevation ◽

Climate Simulation ◽

Water Yield ◽

Research Station ◽

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061762 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1762 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nathan Rickards ◽

Thomas Thomas ◽

Alexandra Kaelin ◽

Helen Houghton-Carr ◽

Sharad K. Jain ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Large Scale ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL BY THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE TRANSFORMATION ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE RIVERS OF GEORGIA

World Science ◽

10.31435/rsglobal_ws/31102019/6712 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (10(50)) ◽

pp. 4-9

Author(s):

Grigol Khelidze ◽

Lena Shatakishvili ◽

Bachana Pipia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Content ◽

Quantitative Assessment ◽

River Basins ◽

Transformation Process ◽

Energy Potential ◽

Hydropower Potential ◽

The purpose of the work is the quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on the runoff of the rivers of Georgia and, consequently, on their hydropower potential. To this end, the sections of 19 river basins located in six regions of Georgia, where natural runoff is maintained, have been reviewed – it is not regulated. The results of the study confirm the change of the water content of the selected rivers and hence their hydro- energy potential, which is related to the climate transformation process.

Impact of Climate Change on the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Stream Flow and Sediment Yield of Darbandikhan Watershed, Iraq

Engineering and Technology Journal ◽

10.30684/etj.v38i2a.156 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 38 (2A) ◽

pp. 265-276

Author(s):

Mahmoud S. Al- Khafaji ◽

Rana D. Al- Chalabi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Base Period ◽

Time Step ◽

The impact of climate change on stream flow and sediment yield in Darbandikhan Watershed is an important challenge facing the water resources in Diyala River, Iraq. This impact was investigated using five Global Circulation Models (GCM) based climate change projection models from the A1B scenario of medium emission. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to compute the temporal and spatial distribution of streamflow and sediment yield of the study area for the period 1984 to 2050. The daily-observed flow recorded in Darbandikhan Dam for the period from 1984 to 2013 was used as a base period for future projection. The initial results of SWAT were calibrated and validated using SUFI-2 of the SWAT-CUP program in daily time step considering the values of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient of determination (R2) as a Dual objective function. Results of NSE and R2 during the calibration (validation) periods were equal to 0.61 and 0.62(0.53 and 0.68), respectively. In addition, the average future prediction for the five climate models indicated that the average yearly flow and sediment yield in the watershed would decrease by about 49% and 44%, respectively, until the year 2050 compared with these of the base period from 1984 to 2013. Moreover, spatial analysis shows that 89.6 % and 90 % of stream flow and sediment come from the Iranian part of Darbandikhan watershed while the remaining small percent comes from Iraq, respectively. However, the middle and southern parts of Darbandikhan Watershed contribute by most of the stream...

Evaluating Land Suitability and Potential Climate Change Impacts on Alfalfa (Medicago sativa) Production in Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11101124 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1124

Author(s):

Sintayehu Alemayehu ◽

Essayas K. Ayana ◽

Yihun T. Dile ◽

Teferi Demissie ◽

Yohannes Yimam ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Land Suitability ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Fodder Production ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Impact ◽

Suitable Land

Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa with 35 million tropical livestock units. The livestock system relies on natural open grazing which is affected by frequent droughts. However, little research exists that studies the suitability of the biophysical environment for fodder production and the risks due to climate change. The main objectives of the study are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa production in Ethiopia and to assess the extent of irrigation requirements for alfalfa growing under the adverse climate change projections. The impact of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa was evaluated using projected changes in rainfall and temperature based on three global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC5). A multi-criteria evaluation in GIS that uses biophysical, climatic and topography factors was applied to identify the suitable land. The highly suitable area under current climate scenarios covered ~472,000 km2, while moderately suitable and marginally suitable covered ~397,000 km2 and ~16,200 km2, respectively. The projected climate alters the suitable land for fodder production across Ethiopia. Expansion of suitable land occurred in the highlands where climate scenarios predict an increase in temperature and precipitation. Dryland regions showed a rainfall deficit for the three model projections. The research provides guidelines for growing alfalfa in Ethiopia considering ecological and climatic variability.

Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-96656-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sangam Shrestha ◽

Deg-Hyo Bae ◽

Panha Hok ◽

Suwas Ghimire ◽

Yadu Pokhrel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

River Basins ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Spatiotemporal Variability ◽

Climatic Extremes ◽

AbstractThe diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (− 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (− 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia

Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity ◽

10.13057/biodiv/d180448 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 1680-1695

Author(s):

AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽

JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽

DEDY DARNAEDI ◽

ROKHMATULOH ROKHMATULOH ◽

SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Medium ◽

Lower Altitude ◽

Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Darnaedi D, Rokhmatuloh, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I, Komala WR, Pradan P. 2017. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 18: 1680-1695. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges for all life on earth, as it may become the dominant driver of changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss at the global level. Selaginella is a group of spike-mosses that seem easily affected by global warming (climate change) due to requiring water medium for fertilization. However, some species have been adapted to dry condition and may grow as epiphytes, such as S. involvens and S. repanda. Both species are commonly found in opposing a range of elevation. S. involvens is often found in high-altitude regions, whereas S. repanda is often found at lower-altitude regions. The difference in this altitudinal distributions is expected to limit redistribution mechanism of each species to adapt the climate change projections. This study model examines the potential geographic distribution of S. involvens and S. repanda under current climatic conditions and models the impact of projected climate change on their potential distribution. Future climate predictions are made with four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) and three-time intervals (2030, 2050, 2080), which combine various climatic factors. In this modeling, it can be concluded that S. involvens and S. repanda can adapt to future climate change, and continue to be sustainable, although it is strongly influenced and shifting habitat distribution in some areas.

Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Indices Estimation in Some of Subbasins West of Iran

10.20944/preprints201705.0089.v2 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Hadi Nazaripouya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heavy Rainfall ◽

Climate Models ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Intensity Index ◽

Hamedan Province ◽

Relative Change ◽

Future projections from climate models and recent studies shows impact of climate change on rainfall indices estimation. This study assesses the simulations of rainfall indices based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP3 in the some of subbasin Hamedan Province West of Iran. The analysis of the rainfall indices are: simple rainfall intensity, very heavy rainfall days, maximum one-day rainfall and rainfall frequency has been carried out in this study to evaluating the impact of climate change on rainfall indices events. Relative change in three rainfall indices is investigated by GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarious A1B and B1 and RCP8.5, RCP8.5 scenarios for the future periods 2020–2045 and 2045-2065. The ﬁnal results show that each of rainfall indices differs in stations under the three GCMs model (GIAOM, MIHR, MPEH5) and emission scenarios A1B and B1, and RCP2.5, RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative change of daily intensity index varies from -9.93% - 25%, very heavy rainfall days 20.71% - 25.9% and yearly rainfall depth -15.71% - 13% can be observed at study area in 50y for future periods (2046–2065). Rainfall indices of sum wet days, nday >1mm and maximum one-day rainfall are projected to decrease under the senariuos B1,A1B and sum wet days, simple daily intensity and heavy Rainfall days>10 projected to decrease under the RCP2.6.

Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking

10.5194/wcd-2021-47 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sara Bacer ◽

Fatima Jomaa ◽

Julien Beaumet ◽

Hubert Gallée ◽

Enzo Le Bouëdec ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Atmospheric Blocking ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

The Impact ◽

Type Decomposition

Abstract. We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe focusing on the frequency, duration, and extension of blocking events. These events are identified via the weather type decomposition (WTD) methodology applied on the output of climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical simulations as well as two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are considered. The models are evaluated against the reanalysis and only a subset of climate models, which better represent the blocking weather regime in the recent-past climate, is considered for the analysis. We find that frequency and duration of blocking events remain relatively stationary over the 21st century. In order to quantify the extension of blocking events, we define a new methodology which relies on the WTD to identify blocking events. We show that the results are in agreement with previous studies that define blocking events with blocking indexes. We find that blocking extension will increase, especially in the worst-case scenario, due to a pressure increase driven by a thermodynamical warming during blocking events rather than atmospheric circulation changes.