scholarly journals Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 267-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenbin Liu ◽  
Fubao Sun ◽  
Wee Ho Lim ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Hong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
South Asia ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Rural Populations ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Urban Populations ◽  
Impact Reduction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 ∘C instead of 2 ∘C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 ∘C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 ∘C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 ∘C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 ∘C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 ∘C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 ∘C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 ∘C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

scholarly journals Global meteorological drought and severe drought affected population in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenbin Liu ◽  
Fubao Sun ◽  
Wee Ho Lim ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Hong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In Paris Agreement of 2015, a more ambitious climate change mitigation target, on limiting the global warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, has been proposed. Scientific investigations are necessary to investigate environmental risks associated with these warming targets. This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global meteorological drought and the impact of severe drought on population at 1.5 °C and 2 °C additional warming conditions using the CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models. Our results highlight the risk of meteorological drought at the globe and in several hotspot regions such as Amazon, Northeastern Brazil, South Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period. Correspondingly, more people would be exposed to severe droughts in many regions (i.e., total and urban population in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Europe and rural population in Central Asia, South Africa and South Asia). By keeping the warming at 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial levels instead of 2 °C, the risks of meteorological drought would decrease (i.e., less drought duration, drought intensity and drought severity but relatively more frequent severe drought) and the affected total and urban population would decrease (the exposed rural population would increase in most regions) at global and sub-continental scales. Whilst challenging for the rural areas, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C are significant for reducing the risks and societal impacts of global meteorological drought.

scholarly journals Increased Drought Risk in South Asia under Warming Climate: Implications of Uncertainty in Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2979-2996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saran Aadhar ◽  
Vimal Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Warming Climate

AbstractObserved and projected changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and drought are not well constrained in South Asia. Using five PET estimates [Thornthwaite (PET-TH), Hargreaves–Samani (PET-HS), Penman–Monteith (PET-PM), modified Penman–Monteith (PET-MPM), and energy (PET-EN)] for the observed (1979–2018, from ERA5) and future warming climate, we show that significant warming has occurred in South Asia during 1979–2018. PET changes show considerable uncertainty depending on the method used. For instance, PET-TH has increased significantly while all the other four methods show a decline in PET in the majority of South Asia during the observed period of 1979–2018. The increase in PET-TH is substantially higher than PET-HS, PET-PM, and PET-MPM due to a higher (3–4 times) sensitivity of PET-TH to warming during the observed period. Under the 1.5°, 2.0°, and 2.5°C warming worlds, global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 GCMs) project increases in PET and drought frequency over the majority of the regions. Drought estimates based on PET-EN and PET-MPM are consistent with soil moisture–based drought estimates and project a substantial increase in the frequency of severe droughts under warming climate in South Asia. In addition, the projected frequency of severe drought based on PET-TH, which is an outlier, is about 5 times higher than PET-EN and PET-MPM. Methods to estimate PET contribute the most in the overall uncertainty of PET and drought projections in South Asia, primarily due to PET-TH. Drought estimates based on PET-TH are not reliable for the observed and projected future climate. Therefore, future drought projections should be either based on PET-EN/PET-MPM or soil moisture.

Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change Projections for the South Asian Monsoon: Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes and Physics Parameterization Impacts

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2311-2331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiling Huo ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% °C−1 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role.

Arabic in contact with English in Asia

English Today ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azirah Hashim ◽  
Gerhard Leitner ◽  
Mohammed Al Aqad
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Fifth Century ◽  
Seventh Century ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
History Of ◽  
Global Language ◽  
The Impact

Arabic has a long history of contact with languages outside the Middle East (Lapidus, 2015; Beg, 1979). In Asia, the spread of Arabic began with the trade network that connected the Middle East with South Asia, South-East, East Asia and East Africa from the fifth century. It intensified with the rise of Islam from the seventh century onwards (Morgan & Reid, 2010; Azirah & Leitner, 2016). In this paper we investigate the impact of Arabic on today's English in the context of Asian Englishes. More specifically we ask if the contact of Arabic with English in Asia has led to the creation of an Arabic-Islamic layer of English in countries that have a majority or a significant minority of Muslims. Would such a layer add a new dimension to the texture of English and be integrative across national Englishes? Or would it be divisive inside individual countries? In order to explore such issues we created a corpus of Arabic loanwords in Asian Englishes. Such a database will contribute to a better coverage of the impact of Arabic in dictionaries and to the study of English as a (multiple) national, regional and global language.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1573-1591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Crochemore ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Charles Perrin
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
Prediction Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Many fields, such as drought-risk assessment or reservoir management, can benefit from long-range streamflow forecasts. Climatology has long been used in long-range streamflow forecasting. Conditioning methods have been proposed to select or weight relevant historical time series from climatology. They are often based on general circulation model (GCM) outputs that are specific to the forecast date due to the initialisation of GCMs on current conditions. This study investigates the impact of conditioning methods on the performance of seasonal streamflow forecasts. Four conditioning statistics based on seasonal forecasts of cumulative precipitation and the standardised precipitation index were used to select relevant traces within historical streamflows and precipitation respectively. This resulted in eight conditioned streamflow forecast scenarios. These scenarios were compared to the climatology of historical streamflows, the ensemble streamflow prediction approach and the streamflow forecasts obtained from ECMWF System 4 precipitation forecasts. The impact of conditioning was assessed in terms of forecast sharpness (spread), reliability, overall performance and low-flow event detection. Results showed that conditioning past observations on seasonal precipitation indices generally improves forecast sharpness, but may reduce reliability, with respect to climatology. Conversely, conditioned ensembles were more reliable but less sharp than streamflow forecasts derived from System 4 precipitation. Forecast attributes from conditioned and unconditioned ensembles are illustrated for a case of drought-risk forecasting: the 2003 drought in France. In the case of low-flow forecasting, conditioning results in ensembles that can better assess weekly deficit volumes and durations over a wider range of lead times.

scholarly journals Case study of a water bioengineering construction site in Austria. Ecological aspects and application of an environmental life cycle assessment model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. von der Thannen ◽  
S. Hoerbinger ◽  
C. Muellebner ◽  
H. Biber ◽  
H. P. Rauch
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Environmental Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

AbstractRecently, applications of soil and water bioengineering constructions using living plants and supplementary materials have become increasingly popular. Besides technical effects, soil and water bioengineering has the advantage of additionally taking into consideration ecological values and the values of landscape aesthetics. When implementing soil and water bioengineering structures, suitable plants must be selected, and the structures must be given a dimension taking into account potential impact loads. A consideration of energy flows and the potential negative impact of construction in terms of energy and greenhouse gas balance has been neglected until now. The current study closes this gap of knowledge by introducing a method for detecting the possible negative effects of installing soil and water bioengineering measures. For this purpose, an environmental life cycle assessment model has been applied. The impact categories global warming potential and cumulative energy demand are used in this paper to describe the type of impacts which a bioengineering construction site causes. Additionally, the water bioengineering measure is contrasted with a conventional civil engineering structure. The results determine that the bioengineering alternative performs slightly better, in terms of energy demand and global warming potential, than the conventional measure. The most relevant factor is shown to be the impact of the running machines at the water bioengineering construction site. Finally, an integral ecological assessment model for applications of soil and water bioengineering structures should point out the potential negative effects caused during installation and, furthermore, integrate the assessment of potential positive effects due to the development of living plants in the use stage of the structures.

scholarly journals Prioritizing smallholder animal health needs in East Africa, West Africa, and South Asia using three approaches: Literature review, expert workshops, and practitioner surveys

2021 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 105279
Author(s):  
Zoë Campbell ◽  
Paul Coleman ◽  
Andrea Guest ◽  
Peetambar Kushwaha ◽  
Thembinkosi Ramuthivheli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
West Africa ◽  
South Asia ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Health Needs

scholarly journals Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 239980832199870
Author(s):  
Sheree A Pagsuyoin ◽  
Joost R Santos
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
National Capital Region ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

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