scholarly journals Sustaining the Ogallala Aquifer: From the Wells to People, A Holistic CNH Model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Aistrup ◽  
Tom Bulatewicz ◽  
Laszlo J. Kulcsar ◽  
Jeffrey M. Peterson ◽  
Stephen M. Welch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Policy ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
System Level ◽  
Ogallala Aquifer ◽  
Conservation Policies ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of water policy on sustaining the Ogallala Aquifer is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use tendencies, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we 1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural-human system (CNH), 2) forecast future outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic and natural components of the integrated system, and 3) communicate model projections to inform public policies for enhanced sustainability while minimizing the economic pain for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage will reduce the impact of an increasingly dryer climate on the region's economy and create greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. The primary negative aspect of more extensive conservation policies are on the net present value of farmers' current investments in their operations. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.

scholarly journals Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural–human model

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 6167-6183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Aistrup ◽  
Tom Bulatewicz ◽  
Laszlo J. Kulcsar ◽  
Jeffrey M. Peterson ◽  
Stephen M. Welch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Policy ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
System Level ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Ogallala Aquifer ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural–human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.

7. Lakes and us

2018 ◽  
pp. 109-130
Author(s):  
Warwick F. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Cyanobacterial Blooms ◽  
System Level ◽  
Lake Ecosystem ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
The Face ◽  
Dam Building ◽  
Water Plants ◽  
The Impact

Humans are not only part of the lake ecosystem through activities including lake shore development and transportation of goods and people, but we can also do great damage to a lake and its ability to provide essential services. ‘Lakes and us’ considers the impact of dam-building and the threats facing lakes due to the proliferation of algae and water plants caused by eutrophication and toxins formed by cyanobacterial blooms. It asks whether a eutrophic ‘dead lake’ can be restored to its original, near-pristine condition; and concludes that an integrated, system-level perspective on lakes is now vital in managing the world’s freshwater resources in the face of rapid, global, climate change.

Integrated system health management-based condition assessment for manned spacecraft avionics

2012 ◽  
Vol 227 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiuping Xu ◽  
Lei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Condition Assessment ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
System Level ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
Manned Spacecraft ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analytical Approaches

This article presents a condition assessment model to evaluate the health condition of manned spacecraft avionics that enables the essential capabilities of a manned spacecraft and guarantees the mission success of space flight. Condition assessment based on the integrated system health management is introduced into manned spacecraft avionics to cope with the safety and maintenance necessity. Due to the complexity and the uncertainty of the system, it is a tough task before modular avionics emerged, and there is a rare research-concerning condition assessment for manned spacecraft avionics with fuzziness and simultaneous consideration in system level. A numerical example illustrates the proposed fuzzy evaluation model which takes all criteria into account from a holistic perspective, combines objective tests with subjective judgments and incorporates fuzziness and uncertainty into ranking the manned spacecraft avionics health level using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with quantitative reliability analytical approaches. The proposed model is demonstrated to solve the condition assessment problem and the impact condition factors for the manned spacecraft avionics health management are revealed.

Evaluation of the Shortcomings of Current Engine Technology Stack-Up Methods and Suggestions for Improvement

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Perullo ◽  
Brian K. Kestner ◽  
Jimmy C. M. Tai ◽  
Jeff S. Schutte ◽  
Dimitri N. Mavris
Keyword(s):  
Technology Development ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
System Level ◽  
Strong Interactions ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Conventional Technology ◽  
Relative Design ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Technology Ranking

There are currently numerous government and industry entities engaging in aviation technology development programs [1,2,3]. Due to the number of technologies being investigated there exists an understandable desire to rank technologies in order to identify the most beneficial ones. Historically, this has been done through the use of “waterfall” or technology stack-up charts [4].One purpose of such waterfall charts is to show the amount of benefit each technology provides to the integrated system. This approach is valid, and extremely useful, for verifying the modeling of such technologies; however, there are shortcomings in using a waterfall chart to assess the relative contribution of individual technologies to the overall system level benefit. This is due to several considerations that are not taken into account when developing conventional technology ranking charts. For example, the relative impact of each technology can be highly dependent on the order in which technologies are applied, the system the technology is applied to, the relative design changes that occur either before or after the technology is applied, and other technologies that are present on the system. In order to explore these characteristics this paper uses propulsion technologies since there are strong interactions between the various components of an engine. Engine technologies also commonly rely upon enabling technologies which provide less benefit, but without them the larger “bigger hitting” technologies are not feasible. This research explores and quantifies the issues associated with several conventional methods of creating technology ranking charts. Propulsion technologies targeting both thermal and propulsive efficiency are applied to a baseline aircraft and engine configuration. Several conventional technology ranking and stack-up techniques are applied in order to evaluate how the relative impacts of individual technologies vary greatly depending on the assessment method. In all cases the same technology packages are applied such that the final benefit is the same, regardless of ranking method. It is suggested that a range of currently used ranking techniques all used to determine a more robust estimate of the impact.

Comparative assessment of morphological mechanisms of maintaining structural liver homeostasis in the dynamics of exposure to coal-rock dust and sodium fluoride on the body

2020 ◽  
pp. 189-194
Author(s):  
M. S. Bugaeva ◽  
O. I. Bondarev ◽  
N. N. Mikhailova ◽  
L. G. Gorokhova
Keyword(s):  
Sodium Fluoride ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
The Body ◽  
System Level ◽  
Production Factor ◽  
Coal Rock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Homeostasis ◽  
Rock Dust

Introduction. The impact on the body of such factors of the production environment as coal-rock dust and fluorine compounds leads to certain shift s in strict indicators of homeostasis at the system level. Maintaining the relative constancy of the internal environment of the body is provided by the functional consistency of all organs and systems, the leading of which is the liver. Organ repair plays a crucial role in restoring the structure of genetic material and maintaining normal cell viability. When this mechanism is damaged, the compensatory capabilities of the organ are disrupted, homeostasis is disrupted at the cellular and organizational levels, and the development of the main pathological processes is noted.The aim of the study is to compare the morphological mechanisms of maintaining structural homeostasis of the liver in the dynamics of the impact on the body of coal-rock dust and sodium fluoride.Materials and methods. Experimental studies were conducted on adult white male laboratory rats. Features of morphological mechanisms for maintaining structural homeostasis of the liver in the dynamics of exposure to coal-rock dust and sodium fluoride were studied on experimental models of pneumoconiosis and fluoride intoxication. For histological examination in experimental animals, liver sampling was performed after 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 weeks of the experiment.Results. The specificity of morphological changes in the liver depending on the harmful production factor was revealed. It is shown that chronic exposure to coal-rock dust and sodium fluoride is characterized by the development of similar morphological changes in the liver and its vessels from the predominance of the initial compensatory-adaptive to pronounced violations of the stromal and parenchymal components. Long-term inhalation of coal-rock dust at 1–3 weeks of seeding triggers adaptive mechanisms in the liver in the form of increased functional activity of cells, formation of double-core hepatocytes, activation of immunocompetent cells and endotheliocytes, ensuring the preservation of the parenchyma and the general morphostructure of the organ until the 12th week of the experiment. Exposure to sodium fluoride leads to early disruption of liver compensatory mechanisms and the development of dystrophic changes in the parenchyma with the formation of necrosis foci as early as the 6th week of the experiment.Conclusions. The study of mechanisms for compensating the liver structure in conditions of long-term exposure to coal-rock dust and sodium fluoride, as well as processes that indicate their failure, and the timing of their occurrence, is of theoretical and practical importance for developing recommendations for the timely prevention and correction of pathological conditions developing in employees of the aluminum and coal industry.The authors declare no conflict of interests.

Water in the economy of Tamil Nadu, India: more flexible water allocation policies offer a possible way out of water-induced economic stagnation and will be good for the environment and the poor

Water Policy ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Bhatia ◽  
John Briscoe ◽  
R. P. S. Malik ◽  
Lindy Miller ◽  
Smita Misra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Allocation ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
The State ◽  
Allocation Policy ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
State Income ◽  
Important Exception ◽  
The Impact

The state of Tamil Nadu, India, is in the grips of a water crisis, with demand far outstripping supply. As the economy of the state grows, this crisis is going to become ever more serious. To date the focus of state water policy has been on trying to augment supplies, from within the state (even from desalinization) and from neighboring states. In addition, the water use is regulated in a way that does not encourage the highest value uses. International experience shows that supply-side measures must be complemented by demand-side measures and that practice must move away from fixed, command-and-control allocation policies towards flexible allocation mechanisms, which facilitate the voluntary movement of water from low to high-value uses. This study addresses the question of whether such a change in allocation policies is worth doing. It addresses this question by developing optimization models for each of the 17 river basins in Tamil Nadu (including an assessment of the economic value of water in different end-uses – agriculture, domestic and industry), then using an input–output model embedded in a social accounting matrix (SAM), to assess the impact of these changes on the state economy and on different rural and urban employment groups. The results suggest that a shift to a flexible water allocation system would bring major environmental, economic and social benefits to the state. Compared with the current “fixed sectoral allocation” policy, a flexible allocation policy would, in 2020, result in 15% less overall water used; 24% less water pumped from aquifers; 20% higher state income; with all strata, rich and poor, benefiting similarly, with one important exception, that of agricultural laborers.

Design of a Robust Memristive Spiking Neuromorphic System with Unsupervised Learning in Hardware

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Md Musabbir Adnan ◽  
Sagarvarma Sayyaparaju ◽  
Samuel D. Brown ◽  
Mst Shamim Ara Shawkat ◽  
Catherine D. Schuman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unsupervised Learning ◽  
Recognition Task ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Process Variations ◽  
Spike Timing ◽  
System Level ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Digital Pulse ◽  
Neuromorphic System ◽  
The Impact

Spiking neural networks (SNN) offer a power efficient, biologically plausible learning paradigm by encoding information into spikes. The discovery of the memristor has accelerated the progress of spiking neuromorphic systems, as the intrinsic plasticity of the device makes it an ideal candidate to mimic a biological synapse. Despite providing a nanoscale form factor, non-volatility, and low-power operation, memristors suffer from device-level non-idealities, which impact system-level performance. To address these issues, this article presents a memristive crossbar-based neuromorphic system using unsupervised learning with twin-memristor synapses, fully digital pulse width modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity, and homeostasis neurons. The implemented single-layer SNN was applied to a pattern-recognition task of classifying handwritten-digits. The performance of the system was analyzed by varying design parameters such as number of training epochs, neurons, and capacitors. Furthermore, the impact of memristor device non-idealities, such as device-switching mismatch, aging, failure, and process variations, were investigated and the resilience of the proposed system was demonstrated.

scholarly journals A Conceptual Framework Integrating “Building Back Better” and Post-Earthquake Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5608
Author(s):  
Manjiang Shi ◽  
Qi Cao ◽  
Baisong Ran ◽  
Lanyan Wei
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Recovery ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
International Consensus ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
The People ◽  
Policy Guidance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Global disasters due to earthquakes have become more frequent and intense. Consequently, post-disaster recovery and reconstruction has become the new normal in the social process. Through post-disaster reconstruction, risks can be effectively reduced, resilience can be improved, and long-term stability can be achieved. However, there is a gap between the impact of post-earthquake reconstruction and the needs of the people in the disaster area. Based on the international consensus of “building back better” (BBB) and a post-disaster needs assessment method, this paper proposes a new (N-BBB) conceptual model to empirically analyze recovery after the Changning Ms 6.0 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China. The reliability of the model was verified through factor analysis. The main observations were as follows. People’s needs focus on short-term life and production recovery during post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction. Because of disparities in families, occupations, and communities, differences are observed in the reconstruction time sequence and communities. Through principal component analysis, we found that the N-BBB model constructed in this study could provide strong policy guidance in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction after the Changning Ms 6.0 earthquake, effectively coordinate the “top-down” and “bottom-up” models, and meet the diversified needs of such recovery and reconstruction.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the oncologic care continuum: urgent need to restore patients care to pre-COVID-19 era

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ernest Osei ◽  
Ruth Francis ◽  
Ayan Mohamed ◽  
Lyba Sheraz ◽  
Fariba Soltani-Mayvan
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Care ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
System Level ◽  
Care Continuum ◽  
Cancer Services ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
Screening And Prevention ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Globally, cancer is the second leading cause of death, and it is estimated that over 18·1 million new cases are diagnosed annually. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted almost every aspect of the provision and management of cancer care worldwide. The time-critical nature of COVID-19 diagnosis and the large number of patients requiring hospitalisation necessitated the rerouting of already limited resources available for cancer services and programmes to the care of COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, the stringent social distancing, restricted in-hospital visits and lockdown measures instituted by various governments resulted in the disruption of the oncologic continuum including screening, diagnostic and prevention programmes, treatments and follow-up services as well as research and clinical trial programmes. Materials and Methods: We searched several databases from October 2020 to January 2021 for relevant studies published in English between 2020 and 2021 and reporting on the impact of COVID-19 on the cancer care continuum. This narrative review paper describes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cancer patient care continuum from screening and prevention to treatments and ongoing management of patients. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted cancer care and the management of cancer services and patients. Nevertheless, the oncology healthcare communities worldwide have done phenomenal work with joint and collaborative efforts, utilising best available evidence-based guidelines to continue to give safe and effective treatments for cancer patients while maintaining the safety of patients, healthcare professionals and the general population. Nevertheless, several healthcare centres are now faced with significant challenges with the management of the backlog of screening, diagnosis and treatment cases. It is imperative that governments, leaders of healthcare centres and healthcare professionals take all necessary actions and policies focused on minimising further system-level delays to cancer screening, diagnosis, treatment initiation and clearing of all backlogs cases from the COVID-19 pandemic in order to mitigate the negative impact on cancer outcomes.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4392
Author(s):  
Jia Zhou ◽  
Hany Abdel-Khalik ◽  
Paul Talbot ◽  
Cristian Rabiti
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Initial Guess ◽  
Reduced Order ◽  
The Impact

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

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