scholarly journals Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1055-1088
Author(s):  
G. Aðalgeirsdóttir ◽  
S. Guðmundsson ◽  
H. Björnsson ◽  
F. Pálsson ◽  
T. Jóhannesson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeast coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1986, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936–1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by DGPS and correlation of SPOT5 images. The 21% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895–2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios from a study of the effect of climate change on energy production in the Nordic countries (the CES project). If the average climate of 2000–2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century, and the glacier will almost disappear if the climate warms as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30–40 years and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area.

scholarly journals Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 961-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Aðalgeirsdóttir ◽  
S. Guðmundsson ◽  
H. Björnsson ◽  
F. Pálsson ◽  
T. Jóhannesson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Differential Gps ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of the ice cap Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeastern coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1989, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936–1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by kinematic and differential GPS surveys and correlation of SPOT5 images. The approximately 20% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895–2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios derived from 10 global and 3 regional climate model simulations using the A1B emission scenario. If the average climate of 2000–2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century. If the climate warms, as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios, the model projects this glacier to almost disappear by the end of the 21st century. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30–40 yr and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lander Van Tricht ◽  
Chloë Marie Paice ◽  
Oleg Rybak ◽  
Rysbek Satylkanov ◽  
Victor Popovnin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Specific Mass ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mean

The mean specific mass balance of a glacier represents the direct link between a glacier and the local climate. Hence, it is intensively monitored throughout the world. In the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, glaciers are of crucial importance with regard to water supply for the surrounding areas. It is therefore essential to know how these glaciers behave due to climate change and how they will evolve in the future. In the Soviet era, multiple glaciological monitoring programs were initiated but these were abandoned in the nineties. Recently, they have been re-established on several glaciers. In this study, a reconstruction of the mean specific mass balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor glaciers is obtained using a surface energy mass balance model. The model is driven by temperature and precipitation data acquired by combining multiple datasets from meteorological stations in the vicinity of the glaciers and tree rings in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan between 1750 and 2020. Multi-annual mass balance measurements integrated over elevation bands of 100 m between 2013 and 2020 are used for calibration. A comparison with WGMS data for the second half of the 20th century is performed for Kara-Batkak glacier. The cumulative mass balances are also compared with geodetic mass balances reconstructed for different time periods. Generally, we find a close agreement, indicating a high confidence in the created mass balance series. The last 20 years show a negative mean specific mass balance except for 2008–2009 when a slightly positive mass balance was found. This indicates that the glaciers are currently in imbalance with the present climatic conditions in the area. For the reconstruction back to 1750, this study specifically highlights that it is essential to adapt the glacier geometry since the end of the Little Ice Age in order to not over- or underestimate the mean specific mass balance. The datasets created can be used to get a better insight into how climate change affects glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan and to model the future evolution of these glaciers as well as other glaciers in the region.

Modelling climate change impacts on glaciers and water resources in China  using OGGM and FUSE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Goldberg ◽  
Louis Kinnear ◽  
Florian Kobierska-Baffie ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
Helen He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountainous Regions

<p>Hundreds of millions of people depend strongly on hydrological inputs in the mountainous regions of China and central Asia. Glacier runoff is a major contributor to this hydrological forcing, yet many glaciers in the region have undergone mass loss in recent years and this mass loss is expected to continue or increase in response to climatological change. As such it is important to assess the large-scale response of High Mountain Asia glaciers to climate change , and its effects on hydrology. We present here preliminary modelling investigations of glacier change and hydrological impacts in response to high-resolution climate model projections over the 21st century as a component of the project SWARM (Impacts Assessment to Support WAter Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation for China). Our model chain consists of i) Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which allows for high-resolution glacier flowline modelling of multiple glaciers, and ii) the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) a modular framework for snow and hydrology modelling, which we used to assemble and run three hydrological models over the whole of China. Both FUSE and OGGM are forced by an ensemble of bias-corrected CORDEX-East Asia regional climate models (in turn forced by CMIP5 general circulation models), and outputs of OGGM are provided to FUSE. We discuss our application of OGGM to 80,000 glaciers in Chinese river catchments; our efforts to calibrate the mass balance model using an expanded set of geodetic mass balance constraints; and finally the projections of glacier, snow and streamflow changes in the 21st century. In particular, we discuss the robustness and uncertainties in the projections as sampled by our multi-model ensemble.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 281-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henning Åkesson ◽  
Kerim H. Nisancioglu ◽  
Rianne H. Giesen ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Length Changes

Abstract. Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions. In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300–1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume–area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity. We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balance–altitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance–altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling the evolution of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since the Little Ice Age and into the future

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (224) ◽  
pp. 1155-1168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Johannes Jakob Fürst ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
The Future

AbstractWe use a 3-D higher-order glacier flow model for Vadret da Morteratsch, Engadin, Switzerland, to simulate its strong retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and to project its future disintegration under a warming climate. The flow model, coupled to a 2-D energy-balance model, is initialized with the known maximum glacier extent during the LIA and subsequently forced with mean monthly precipitation and temperature records. To correctly reproduce the observed retreat of the glacier front for the period 1864–2010, additional mass-balance perturbations are required to account for uncertainties in the initial state, the mass-balance model and climate variations not captured by the ambient meteorological records. Changes in glacier volume and area are in good agreement with additional information from historical topographic maps. Under constant 2001–10 climate conditions, a strong retreat and mass loss continue and Vadret da Morteratsch disconnects from its main tributary, Vadret Pers, before 2020. The future glacier evolution is analysed in detail to understand the timing and rate of retreat, and to assess the role of ice dynamics. Assuming a linearly increasing warming of >3°C by 2100, only isolated and largely stagnant ice patches remain at high elevation.

scholarly journals Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3661-3677 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Lutz ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
A. Gobiet ◽  
F. Pellicciotti ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

scholarly journals Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 100206
Author(s):  
Connie A. Woodhouse ◽  
Rebecca M. Smith ◽  
Stephanie A. McAfee ◽  
Gregory T. Pederson ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Upper Colorado River Basin ◽  
The Future

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

scholarly journals Glacier dynamics at Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq glaciers, southeast Greenland, since the Little Ice Age

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1497-1507 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Khan ◽  
K. K. Kjeldsen ◽  
K. H. Kjær ◽  
S. Bevan ◽  
A. Luckman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Velocity Change ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Episodic Events ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Speed Up

Abstract. Observations over the past decade show significant ice loss associated with the speed-up of glaciers in southeast Greenland from 2003, followed by a deceleration from 2006. These short-term, episodic, dynamic perturbations have a major impact on the mass balance on the decadal scale. To improve the projection of future sea level rise, a long-term data record that reveals the mass balance beyond such episodic events is required. Here, we extend the observational record of marginal thinning of Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq glaciers from 10 to more than 80 years. We show that, although the frontal portion of Helheim Glacier thinned by more than 100 m between 2003 and 2006, it thickened by more than 50 m during the previous two decades. In contrast, Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier underwent minor thinning of 40–50 m from 1981 to 1998 and major thinning of more than 100 m after 2003. Extending the record back to the end of the Little Ice Age (prior to 1930) shows no thinning of Helheim Glacier from its maximum extent during the Little Ice Age to 1981, while Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier underwent substantial thinning of 230 to 265 m. Comparison of sub-surface water temperature anomalies and variations in air temperature to records of thickness and velocity change suggest that both glaciers are highly sensitive to short-term atmospheric and ocean forcing, and respond very quickly to small fluctuations. On century timescales, however, multiple external parameters (e.g. outlet glacier shape) may dominate the mass change. These findings suggest that special care must be taken in the projection of future dynamic ice loss.

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1525-1557
Author(s):  
K. O'Driscoll ◽  
B. Mayer ◽  
J. Su ◽  
M. Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Pollutants ◽  
North Sea ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Persistent Organic Pollutants ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

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