Price Analysis and Forecasting for Bitcoin Using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model

This paper investigated Bitcoin daily closing price using time series approach to predict future values for financial managers and investors. Daily data were sourced from CoinDesk, with Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) for 5 years (January 1, 2016 to May 31, 2021) extracted. Data analysis and modelling of price trend using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was carried out, and a suitable model for forecasting was proposed. Results showed that ARIMA(6,1,12) model was the most suitable based on a combination of number of significant coefficients and values of volatility, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). A two-month test window was used for forecasting and prediction. Results showed a decline in prediction accuracy as number of days of the test period increased; from 99.94% for the first 7 days, to 99.59 % for 14 days and 95.84% for 30 days. For the two-month test period, percentage accuracy was 84.75%. The study confirms that the ARIMA model is a veritable planning tool for financial managers, investors and other stakeholders; especially for short-term forecasting. It is however imperative that the influence of external factors, such as investors’/influencers’ comments and government intervention, that may affect forecasting be taken into consideration.

Phytoconstituents from Markhamia Tomentosa Bind To HPV Oncoprotein with Apoptogenic Potential: A Molecular Modeling Approach

Markhamia tomentosa crude extract and fractions exhibited potent growth inhibitory effects capable to induce apoptosis in cervical (HeLa) cancer cell line via in vitro model. Presently, interaction of M. tomentosa phytoconstituents with molecular drug targets to exert its anticancer property is evaluated via in silico study. Identified phytoconstituents from M. tomentosa were retrieved from PubChem database and docked in active sites of HPV 16 E6, caspase -3 and caspase -8 targets using AutoDockVina from PyRx software. Screening for druglikeness; and absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) predictions was carried out with the use of SwissADME and pkCSM web servers. Standard melphalan and co-crystallized ligands of caspases -3 and -8 enzymes were used to validate protein-ligand interactions. Molecular dynamic simulation was used to validate the stability of the hit molecules complexed with caspases -3 and -8. All identified phytoconstituents from M. tomentosa showed binding affinity for HPV with docking scores range of - 5.4 to -2.6 kcal/mol. Ajugol, carnosol, luteolin and phytol showed good docking energy range of -6.8 to -3.6 kcal/mol; and -4.8 to -1.9 kcal/mol for the active sites of caspases -3 and -8 targets respectively. Based on docking scores; drug-likeliness; and ADMET predictions; luteolin and carnosol were selected as hit compounds. These molecules were found to be stable within the binding site of caspase -3 target throughout the 40ns simulation time. These findings identified hit ligands from M. tomentosa phytoconstituents that inhibit HPV 16 E6 oncogene expression with stimulation of caspases -3 and -8 targets.

Efficacy of Tobacco Leaves (Nicotiana tabacum) as Anaesthetic Agent on the Juveniles and Adults of African Catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell 1822)

Various fisheries and aquacultural practices such as handling, transportation, tagging and so on stress fish. To minimise the stress, fish should be anaesthetise using agents that is safe, cheap in cost and extraction, effective and readily available and which should induce anaesthesia and recovery within few minutes as compared to synthetic anaesthetics. This study investigated the efficacy of tobacco leaves extract (Nicotiana tabacum) as an anaesthetic agent on Clarias gariepinus juveniles and adults. Ethanolic extracts of the leaves at 50 mg L−1, 100 mg L−1, 150 mg L−1 and 200 mg L−1 were used to anaesthetise juveniles and adults of the fish in order to vary the effects of increasing concentrations on the fish. Least induction time in juveniles was 166.72 ±7.15s recorded in 200 mg L−1, while highest induction time of 476.32 ±3.29s was in 50 mg L−1. In adult, least induction time was 440.99 ±2.42s in 200 mg L−1 concentration, and highest was 916.75 ±6.65s in 50.00 mg L−1. Highest and lowest recovery times in juveniles were 1078.68 ±19.80s and 751.21 ±7.65s in 200 mg L−1 and 50.00 mg L−1 respectively. In adult, least recovery time was 361.83 ±5.14s in 50.00 mg L−1, while 200.00 mg L−1 produced the highest recovery time at 548.45 ±7.78s. 200 mg L−1 concentration of tobacco extract was the effective concentration, as it induces anaesthesia within 3 minutes and recovery within 9 minutes with no mortality. These high induction and recovery times may be due to scalessness and well vascularised skin of the fish and its high body lipid content which make nicotine to diffuse faster in and out of the body. 200.00 mg L−1 ethanolic extracts of tobacco leaves could be used to anaesthetise fish as it is safe, low cost in terms of purchase and extraction, readily available, biodegradable (without residual effect), eco-friendly and efficient. It can serve as an alternative to expensive, toxic, scarce MS-222 or clove oil in fisheries and aquaculture.

Immediate and Residual Haematotoxicity in Mice Exposed to Wastewater from a Cocoa Processing Industry

This study investigated the constituents and haematotoxic potential of wastewater collected from a cocoa processing industry in mice. The mice were intraperitoneally injected for 5 consecutive days with 0.3mL of 1, 5, 10, 25 and 50% concentrations of the wastewater. Blood was collected from some mice on the last day of the injection to assess the immediate effect of the wastewater on selected haematological parameters while blood was collected from others 21 days after the last injection to assess its residual effect. Blood collected were analyzed using an Abacus Reflotron machine. Haematological parameters including packed cell volume (PCV), white blood cells (WBC), red blood cells (RBC), heamaglobin (HGB), lymphocytes, erythrocyte indices: Mean corpuscular heamaglobin count (MCHC), mean corpuscular heamablobin (MCH), mean corpuscular volume (MCV); leucocyte differential count: Neutrophils, Monocytes, Basophils and Eosinophils were analyzed. A significant decrease in basophils, MCH, MCHC, HGB, and PCV; and a significant increase in neutrophils, monocytes, eosinophils, MCV, total WBC count, and lymphocytes were observed in mice exposed to the wastewater compared to the negative control after 5 days. A similar trend of the alterations of the heamatological parameters was observed in mice 21 days after exposure, even though the values were numerically lower than in the 5 days exposed mice. Results further showed the presence of Zn, Cd, As, Mg, Ni, Cu, Fe, Cr, BOD, COD, and EC at concentrations higher than allowable limit by standard organization. Cocoa industry wastewater is capable of inducing hematotoxicity, therefore, proper waste management should be followed in the disposal of such toxic waste.

Effect of Lambda-Cyhalothrin and Dimethoate on the Growth Response of Cowpea Plants and the Surrounding Soil

Insecticides are used widely to control insect pests affecting cowpea and their residues are often deposited in the soil. This may impact the physico-chemical characteristics of the soil and the plant health. This study was designed to investigate the growth response of cowpea treated with lambda-cyhalothrin and dimethoate and the insecticides influence on the physico-chemical characteristics of the soil. Three cowpea seeds were planted per polyethylene bag containing top soil, and later thinned to two plants. The insecticides were assayed singly or combined. The insecticides were applied at the pre-flowering (30th day), flowering (50th day) and at podding (70th day) stages of cowpea growth. The physico-chemical parameters of treated soils were assayed. Treated soils with lambdacyhalothrin and dimethoate and the control were slightly acidic with pH varying from 5.78 to 6.55. Soil organic matter and soil nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium and sodium had lowest values in untreated soil; they had highest values in soil treated with combined insecticides. Lambda-cyhalothrin and dimethoate treatments elicited diverse response from the cowpea plant. Generally, there were slight increase in the vegetative parameters, yield and pod dimensions of treated plants when compared with the control. These insecticides also increased the root nodules, root length and dry weight of cowpea at different concentrations. The combination of these insecticides had positive effect on cowpea without adverse influence on the yield and as well as the soil physicochemical properties.

Inhibition of Haemoglobin Glycosylation, Glucose Uptake and In Vitro Antidiabetic Activities of Solvent Fractions from Daucus carota Seed

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder which result from either absolute or relative insulin deficiency and may lead to dysfunction in some organ systems. Pancreatic α- glucosidase and α- amylase inhibition are an effective strategy to decrease levels of postprandial hyperglycemia through starch control breakdown. The aim of the study is to assess the in vitro antidiabetic activities of fractions from Daucus carota seed extract, a plant used traditionally for the treatment of diabetes mellitus. The aqueous extract (AQE) of Daucus carota seed was partitioned in ethyl acetate (EAE), n – hexane (HEX) and diethyl ether (DEE) to obtain the various fractions. The AQE and EAE expressed significant α – amylase inhibitory activity with IC50 values of 637.0±18.6 μg/mL and 603.0±25.8 μg/mL respectively. AQE, EAE, HEX and DEE expressed α – glucosidase inhibitory activity with IC50 value of 135.85±1.21, 147.59±0.57, 132.64±1.17, and 143.56±0.49 μg/mL respective compared with acarbose (ACA) with 5.42±0.20 μg/mL. Furthermore, DEE fraction expressed inhibitory effects on % glucose uptake in yeast cell comparable with metronidazole. All Daucus carota fractions expressed various inhibitory effects on haemoglobin glycosylation at a concentration of 200 – 1000 μg/mL. The results show that fractions from the aqueous seed extract of Daucus carota possess in vitro antidiabetic potentials with EAE and HEX fractions having most promising inhibitory activities against α-amylase and α-glucosidase respectively.

Immune Response and Bone Marker Enzyme Activities of Broiler Birds Fed Graded Level Taurine-Supplemented-Diets

Taurine, a derived amino acid has been proven to play an important biological roles in enhancing bone strength and immune activities of broiler birds. This research investigated the effect of the different concentrations of graded level dietary taurine supplement on immune response of birds against Newcastle Disease Virus (NCDV) and Infectious Bursal Disease Virus (IBDV), as well as on enzymatic markers of bone metabolism and effect on mineral composition. A total of 300 unsexed day-old arbor acre broiler birds were used for this research. The birds were randomly distributed using a completely randomized design into five dietary treatment of six replicates with 10 birds per replicate. Treatment one (T1) served as the control group with 0% taurine supplement. Treatments 2, 3, 4, and 5 contained dietary taurine supplements at 0.002, 0.004, 0.006, and 0.008%. Antibody titre against NCDV and IBDV were determined according to standard procedures. The study lasted 42 days. Birds on 0.002% taurine had the highest antibody titre (128.38) against NCDV, while birds on the 0.006% taurine-supplemented-diet also portrayed a distinct (p<0.05) titre value (1029) against IBDV. Serum alkaline phosphatase and bone specific alkaline phosphatase (132.74 and 150.66) at the 42nd day were highest (p<0.05) for birds on 0.004 and 0.002% dietary taurine supplement respectively. The activity of serum tartrate resistant acid phosphatase (44.94) was notably highest (p<0.05) for birds on 0.008% taurine. Bone mineral contents showed that birds fed with 0.002% taurinesupplemented- diet had the highest percentage (p<0.05) of phosphorous (9.50), calcium (32.18) and phosphate (21.77) composition. Conclusively, inclusion of taurine as dietary supplement has proven useful not only in enhancing the birds’ immunity against NCDV an IBDV, but also in boosting bone mineral composition of meat type poultry birds.

Interest Rate Modelling in the Presence of Discontinuities and its Sensitivities

Interest rate paths experience discontinuities in the presence of certain factors. Much of the work on interest rate modelling has no consideration for effects of such unexpected occurrences in real life. A good risk manager needs to have a better model that considers possibility of unexpected occurrences. In this paper, we discuss step by step extension of Vasicek model to both jump model and jumpdiffusion model using Itô’s formula as the major tool. We also derive the greeks ‘delta’ and ‘vega’ that measure sensitivity of the interest rate with respect to both changes in its initial interest rate and volatility in an interbank rate.

Geophysical Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability to Diesel Contamination at a Telecommunication Mast in Adebayo Area, Ado-Ekiti, Southwestern Nigeria

An appraisal of the groundwater vulnerability to contamination risk at Adebayo in Ado-Ekiti, Southwestern Nigeria, was carried out using the electrical resistivity method of geophysical prospecting. Two traverses of length 100 m each were established for both vertical electrical sounding (VES) and dipole-dipole. Six (6) Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) and 2-D dipole-dipole profiling techniques of the electrical resistivity method were adopted for the geophysical investigation. The results show variations in resistivity values, depicting four to five geologic layers: the topsoil, laterite, weathered layer, fractured, and the fresh basement. It was observed from the correlation of the geoelectric section and 2-D resistivity image along traverse 1 (TR1) that the groundwater in the study area flows towards the southwestern part, and the fractured basement serves as a migration pathway to the diesel oil in the same direction as groundwater flow. The fractured basement (Well 2) with no lateritic cover has higher resistivity values compare to the fracture zone that was found directly under the mast which was overlain by the laterite. Comparing the resistivity values of Well 1 and 2, Well 2 that was drilled into the fractured basement has more traces of the contaminant than Well 1.

Chemical and Phytochemical Analyses of Extracts from the Leaves of Acalypha wilkesiana, “an Herbal Plant used for the Treatment of Various Skin Disorders”

Acalypha wilkesiana is a tropical herb used for the treatment of skin disorders. Phytochemical studies carried out on the pulverized dried leaves of the plant revealed the presence of alkaloids, cardiac glycosides, anthraquinones, saponins, flavonoids and tannins. The crude 50% methanol extract obtained from the dried leaves was sequentially partitioned into three fractions. Thin layer chromatography of the fractions revealed three (3) components each in hexane fraction; ethyl acetate fraction and butanol fraction of the plant extract. Column chromatography of the fractions was carried out. The infrared analyses of the components revealed the presence of alkenes, hydroxyl group, conjugate carbonyls, esters in the hexane fraction components. Those from the ethyl acetate and butanol fractions contained aliphatic amides or amines with carbonyl and esters attached in the two fractions. Essential oil was extracted from the dried leaves using hydro-distillation method. GC-MS analysis of the essential oil revealed the presence of major compounds which included: n-Hexadecanoic acid 4-Hexen-2-one-3-methyl, Pyrrole and 6-Benzamido-4-benzoyl-1,2,4-triazine-3,5. The presence of the functional groups inferred from IR and GC-MS analyses with the antimicrobial potential of the essential oil may support the use of the plant in the management of skin infections, gastrointestinal disorders and other ailments.