scholarly journals Will there be any more classical scrapie cases in sheep in Great Britain? A modelling study to predict future cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.E. Arnold ◽  
B. Rajanayagam
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Classical Scrapie ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Back Calculation ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Rate Of Decline

Abstract The aim of this study was to apply a back-calculation model to Great Britain (GB) classical scrapie surveillance data, and use this model to estimate how many more cases might be expected, and over what time frame these cases might occur. A back-calculation model was applied to scrapie surveillance data between 2005 and 2019 to estimate the annual rate of decline of classical scrapie. This rate was then extrapolated to predict the number of future cases each year going forward. The model shows that there may be yet further cases of classical scrapie in GB. These will most likely occur in the fallen stock scheme, with approximately a 25% probability of at least 1 further scrapie positive, with a very low probability (~0.2%) of having up to three additional scrapie positives. This highlights the difficulty of completely eliminating all further cases, even in the presence of very effective control measures.

Prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie in Great Britain, 1993–2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
pp. 787-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. GUBBINS ◽  
K. M. McINTYRE
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Classical Scrapie ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Back Calculation ◽  
Clinical Cases

SUMMARYExtensive surveillance for classical scrapie has been carried out in Great Britain since 1993, the results of which can be used for monitoring the effect of control measures introduced since 2001. A back-calculation approach was used to estimate the prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie, which integrates data on reported clinical cases (1993–2007) and the results of fallen stock and abattoir surveys (2002–2007). The prevalence of classical scrapie in GB was fairly constant until 2003, although the estimates depended on assumptions made about the performance of diagnostic tests used in the surveys. If infected animals could be detected in the final quarter of the incubation period, the estimated prevalence was 0·6–0·7%, while if they could be detected in the final half of the incubation period, it was 0·3–0·4%. Between 2003 and 2007 the prevalence declined by around 40%, and the magnitude of the reduction was independent of assumptions made about the diagnostic tests.

scholarly journals Uso de la Estructura de tallas como evidencia del establecimiento poblacional del pez león Pterois volitans (Scorpaeniformes: Scorpaenidae) en el sur del Caribe Mexicano.

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Mateo Sabido-Itzá ◽  
Alejandro Medina-Quej ◽  
Alberto De Jesús-Navarrete ◽  
Jorge Manuel Gómez-Poot ◽  
María Del Carmen García-Rivas
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Mexican Caribbean ◽  
Back Calculation ◽  
Continuous Population ◽  
Negative Impacts

The lionfish (P. volitans) has now invaded all the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with the potential to cause negative impacts on the reefs. In the South Mexican Caribbean was firstly reported in July 2009, and six years after this report, some control measures such as fish tournament and local marketing have been implemented. However, information on its biology and invasion is still-lacking, so this study analyzed the population structure of 2 164 organisms collected from 2009 to 2012. An increase was observed in sizes for each year averaging Total length (Tl): 118 ± 34.8, 133 ± 56.3, 187 ± 74.8 and 219 ± 72.4 mm, respectively. Lionfish establishment at the study site is shown for the presence of juveniles’ sizes 20 mm TL up to 375 mm TL. When the back-calculation was obtained, we estimated that the larger fish could have recruited in early 2006, three years before the first report was made. A continuous population monitoring and an ecological study, will allow us to clarify the real impact in the ecosystems of the region and so to propose the most effective control actions.

scholarly journals Zoonotic Tuberculosis in Humans: Control, Surveillance, and the One Health Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-144
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Macedo Couto ◽  
Otavio T Ranzani ◽  
Eliseu Alves Waldman
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
One Health ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
And Control

Abstract Zoonotic tuberculosis is a reemerging infectious disease in high-income countries and a neglected one in low- and middle-income countries. Despite major advances in its control as a result of milk pasteurization, its global burden is unknown, especially due the lack of surveillance data. Additionally, very little is known about control strategies. The purpose of this review was to contextualize the current knowledge about the epidemiology of zoonotic tuberculosis and to describe the available evidence regarding surveillance and control strategies in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. We conducted this review enriched by a One Health perspective, encompassing its inherent multifaceted characteristics. We found that the burden of zoonotic tuberculosis is likely to be underreported worldwide, with higher incidence in low-income countries, where the surveillance systems are even more fragile. Together with the lack of specific political commitment, surveillance data is affected by lack of a case definition and limitations of diagnostic methods. Control measures were dependent on risk factors and varied greatly between countries. This review supports the claim that a One Health approach is the most valuable concept to build capable surveillance systems, resulting in effective control measures. The disease characteristics and suggestions to implement surveillance and control programs are discussed.

scholarly journals Combining genomic and epidemiological data to compare the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineages

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary E. Petrone ◽  
Jessica E. Rothman ◽  
Mallery I. Breban ◽  
Isabel M. Ott ◽  
Alexis Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
New York ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Virus Genotype ◽  
The Public ◽  
New Variant

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have shaped the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the public health discourse around effective control measures. Evaluating the public health threat posed by a new variant is essential for appropriately adapting response efforts when community transmission is detected. However, this assessment requires that a true comparison can be made between the new variant and its predecessors because factors other than the virus genotype may influence spread and transmission. In this study, we develop a framework that integrates genomic surveillance data to estimate the relative effective reproduction number (Rt) of co-circulating lineages. We use Connecticut, a state in the northeastern United States in which the SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.526 co-circulated in early 2021, as a case study for implementing this framework. We find that the Rt of B.1.1.7 was 6-10% larger than that of B.1.526 in Connecticut in the midst of a COVID-19 vaccination campaign. To assess the generalizability of this framework, we apply it to genomic surveillance data from New York City and observe the same trend. Finally, we use discrete phylogeography to demonstrate that while both variants were introduced into Connecticut at comparable frequencies, clades that resulted from introductions of B.1.1.7 were larger than those resulting from B.1.526 introductions. Our framework, which uses open-source methods requiring minimal computational resources, may be used to monitor near real-time variant dynamics in a myriad of settings.

scholarly journals Exploiting Scanning Surveillance Data to Inform Future Strategies for the Control of Endemic Diseases: The Example of Sheep Scab

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eilidh Geddes ◽  
Sibylle Mohr ◽  
Elizabeth Sian Mitchell ◽  
Sara Robertson ◽  
Anna M. Brzozowska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Positive Skin ◽  
Sheep Scab ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
The Impact

Scanning surveillance facilitates the monitoring of many endemic diseases of livestock in Great Britain, including sheep scab, an ectoparasitic disease of major welfare and economic burden. There is, however, a drive to improve the cost-effectiveness of animal health surveillance, for example by thoroughly exploiting existing data sources. By analysing the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) database, this study aimed to enhance the use of existing scanning surveillance data for sheep scab to identify current trends, highlighting geographical “hotspots” for targeted disease control measures, and identifying a denominator to aid the interpretation of the diagnostic count data. Furthermore, this study collated and assessed the impact of past targeted disease control initiatives using a temporal aberration detection algorithm, the Farrington algorithm, to provide an evidence base towards developing cost-effective disease control strategies. A total of 2,401 positive skin scrapes were recorded from 2003 to 2018. A statistically significant decline in the number of positive skin scrapes diagnosed (p < 0.001) occurred across the study period, and significant clustering was observed in Wales, with a maximum of 47 positive scrapes in Ceredigion in 2007. Scheduled ectoparasite tests was also identified as a potential denominator for the interpretation of positive scrapes by stakeholders. Across the study period, 11 national disease control initiatives occurred: four in Wales, three in England, and four in Scotland. The majority (n = 8) offered free diagnostic testing while the remainder involved knowledge transfer either combined with free testing or skills training and the introduction of the Sheep Scab (Scotland) Order 2010. The Farrington algorithm raised 20 alarms of which 11 occurred within a period of free testing in Wales and one following the introduction of the Sheep Scab (Scotland) Order 2010. In summary, our analysis of the VIDA database has greatly enhanced our knowledge of sheep scab in Great Britain, firstly by identifying areas for targeted action and secondly by offering a framework to measure the impact of future disease control initiatives. Importantly this framework could be applied to inform future strategies for the control of other endemic diseases.

The use of conceptual and categorical apparatus in the cross-national comparative researches

2017 ◽  
pp. 71-76
Author(s):  
Dariya Logvinova
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Migration Policies ◽  
Cultural Conditions ◽  
Social Discourses ◽  
Cross National

At the beginning of the XXI century a noticeable transformation of migration processes is observed under the influence of globalization, which effect the change of social, cultural, spiritual and economic models of different countries and world regions more and more actively. This stipulates the necessity for host countries to improve migration policies for more effective control over economic, social and cultural advantages or, vice versa, disadvantages, which international migration brings with it. Consequently, the necessity of constant examination of this problem seems logical, including the level of cross-national comparative researches, during which the study of the same phenomenon in two or more countries in various socio-cultural conditions with the usage of the same tools takes place. Taking into consideration the variable and unpredictable nature of the problem, the necessity of the stable basis for such researches is transparent, first of all, the need of permanent generally accepted and used conceptual and categorical apparatus, which predetermines primary importance of the research of this apparatus in the field of migration; in this context, the analysis of using of the terms “migrant” and “ethnic minority” in the scientific political and social discourses of such countries, as Canada, Great Britain and Germany is given in the case of this article. Keywords: Migration, migrant, ethnic minority, cross-national comparative researches, conceptual and categorical apparatus

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Epidemic Preventive Policies and Hospital Strategies in Combating COVID-19 Outbreak in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3456
Author(s):  
Ting Wan Tan ◽  
Han Ling Tan ◽  
Man Na Chang ◽  
Wen Shu Lin ◽  
Chih Ming Chang
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Polymerase Chain Reaction Test ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Preventive Strategies ◽  
Epidemic Control

(1) Background: The implementation of effective control measures in a timely fashion is crucial to control the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we aimed to analyze the control measures implemented during the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as evaluating the responses and outcomes at different phases for epidemic control in Taiwan. (2) Methods: This case study reviewed responses to COVID-19 and the effectiveness of a range of control measures implemented for epidemic control in Taiwan and assessed all laboratory-confirmed cases between 11 January until 20 December 2020, inclusive of these dates. The confirmation of COVID-19 infection was defined as the positive result of a reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction test taken from a nasopharyngeal swab. Test results were reported by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The incidence rate, mortality rate, and testing rate were compiled, and the risk ratio was provided to gain insights into the effectiveness of prevention measures. (3) Results and Discussion: This study presents retrospective data on the COVID-19 incidence rate in Taiwan, combined with the vital preventive control measures, in a timeline of the early stage of the epidemic that occurred in Taiwan. The implementation of multiple strategy control measures and the assistance of technologies to control the COVID-19 epidemic in Taiwan led to a relatively slower trend in the outbreak compared to the neighboring countries. In Taiwan, 766 confirmed patients were included, comprised of 88.1% imported cases and 7.2% local transmission cases, within the studied period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 in Taiwan during the studied period was 32 per million people, with a mortality rate of 0.3 per million people. Our analysis showed a significantly raised incidence risk ratio in the countries of interest in comparison to Taiwan during the study period; in the range of 1.9 to 947.5. The outbreak was brought under control through epidemic policies and hospital strategies implemented by the Taiwan Government. (4) Conclusion: Taiwan’s preventive strategies resulted in a drastically lower risk for Taiwan nationals of contracting COVID-19 when new pharmaceutical drug or vaccines were not yet available. The preventive strategies employed by Taiwan could serve as a guide and reference for future epidemic control strategies.

scholarly journals Molecular Identification of Mushroom Species in Italy: An Ongoing Project Aimed at Reinforcing the Control Measures of an Increasingly Appreciated Sustainable Food

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 238
Author(s):  
Alice Giusti ◽  
Enrica Ricci ◽  
Laura Gasperetti ◽  
Marta Galgani ◽  
Luca Polidori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Winning Strategy ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Mushroom Poisoning ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Similar Species ◽  
Mushroom Species ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Genotypic Analysis

Proper investment in mushroom production (farming and wild mushroom picking activities) may represent a winning strategy for many countries, including Italy, to better face the problems of food security and environmental impact, and to break away from imports, enhancing the local products. However, the risk related to the consumption of poisoning species requires governments to implement or reinforce effective control measures to protect consumers. Mushroom identification by phenotype observation is hardly applicable if morphologically-similar species, non-whole specimens, or clinical samples are involved. Genotypic analysis is a valid alternative. An ongoing research project involving the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of Lazio and Tuscany, the regional Mycological Inspectorate, the Tuscany Mycological Groups Association, and the Department of Veterinary Sciences of the University of Pisa aims to reinforce the collaboration among institutions for the management of mushroom poisoning. The core’s project aims to develop an internal genetic database to support the identification of wild and cultivated mushroom species in the Italian territory. The database will include Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) sequences retrieved from official databases (the NCBI GenBank and the BOLD system) which are considered to be reliable, after a proper selection process, and sequences from specimens collected directly and identified by expert mycologists. Once it is validated, the database will be available and further implementable by the official network of national laboratories.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document