Multiplicative Hazard Models for Studying the Evolution of Mortality

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Guillen ◽  
J. P. Nielsen ◽  
A. M. Perez-Marin

ABSTRACTAlmost all over the world, decreasing mortality rates and increasing life expectancy have led to greater interest in estimating and predicting mortality. Here we describe some of the pitfalls which can result from the use of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) while evaluating the development of mortality over time, in particular when SMRs are applied to insurance portfolios varying dramatically over time. Although an excellent comparative study of a single-figure index for a number of countries was recently done by Macdonald et al. (1998), we advocate care when attempting to extend this type of method to insurance data. Here we promote the use of genuine multiplicative modelling such as in Felipe et al. (2001), who compared the mortality rates in Denmark and Spain. The starting point for our study was the two-dimensional mortality estimator of Nielsen & Linton (1995), which considers mortality as a function of chronological time and age. From the principle of marginal integration (see Nielsen & Linton, 1995, and Linton et al., 2003), estimators of the multiplicative model can be obtained from this two-dimensional estimator. An application of the method is provided for mortality data of the United States of America, England & Wales, France, Italy, Japan and Russia.

2011 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 913-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Miech ◽  
Fred Pampel ◽  
Jinyoung Kim ◽  
Richard G. Rogers

This article examines how educational disparities in mortality emerge, grow, decline, and disappear across causes of death in the United States, and how these changes contribute to the enduring association between education and mortality over time. Focusing on adults age 40 to 64 years, we first examine the extent to which educational disparities in mortality persisted from 1989 to 2007. We then test the fundamental cause prediction that educational disparities in mortality persist, in part, by shifting to new health outcomes over time. We focus on the period from 1999 to 2007, when all causes of death were coded to the same classification system. Results indicate (1) substantial widening and narrowing of educational disparities in mortality across causes of death, (2) almost all causes of death with increasing mortality rates also had widening educational disparities, and (3) the total educational disparity in mortality would be about 25 percent smaller today if not for newly emergent and growing educational disparities since 1999. These results point to the theoretical and policy importance of identifying social forces that cause health disparities to widen over time.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 5944-5944
Author(s):  
Eric M Maiese ◽  
Kristin A Evans ◽  
Debra E Irwin

Abstract Introduction: Approximately 27,000 new cases of multiple myeloma (MM) are diagnosed in the United States each year, and over 11,000 deaths annually are attributed to MM (http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@editorial/documents/document/acspc-044552.pdf). In the past decade, the introduction of new drugs has markedly changed the treatment paradigm and outcomes for patients with MM (Kumar et al. Leukemia 2014;28:1122-1128). However, it is not clear whether the improvements have been sustained in more recent years and if improvements were also experienced by patients with additional risk factors for death. This study examined temporal changes in MM survival among patients with additional factors known to be associated with death (i.e. older age and cardiac conditions). Methods: This was a retrospective observational cohort study using the Truven Health MarketScan® Commercial and Medicare Supplemental Databases. Study patients included those with at least 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient claims with an MM diagnosis between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2014, who were at least 18 years old at diagnosis, were continuously enrolled in a health plan for at least 12 months before and at least 30 days after the first diagnosis, and had no prior history of any malignancies. Patients were followed from the date of the first MM diagnosis through the earliest event including death, end of enrollment, or end of the study period (September 30, 2015). All-cause mortality data were obtained from inpatient admissions with a discharge status of "death," and from Social Security Administration death records. Mortality rates were calculated overall, for patients <65 years-old and ≥65 years-old, and for patients with and without a cardiac comorbidity (heart failure, dysrhythmia, myocardial infarction, other ischemic heart disease) indicated in the 12-month baseline period grouped within two time periods according to the date of MM diagnosis (2006-2010 and 2011-2014). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were created for each group and compared using log-rank tests. Results: A total of 5,199 MM patients met all eligibility criteria and were included in the analysis. There were significant differences in survival between patients stratified by age and time period of diagnosis (Figure 1). The overall mortality rate was substantially lower among all patients <65 years-old, compared to those ≥65 (0.18 vs. 0.43 per 1,000 person-days, p<0.05), and mortality rates improved among both age groups from the 2006-2010 to the 2011-2014 time period (<65 years: 0.19 vs. 0.15 per 1,000 person-days, p<0.05; ≥65 years: 0.47 vs. 0.35 per 1,000 person-days, p<0.05). Over 41% of MM patients ≥65 years-old had a cardiac comorbidity, compared to approximately 17% of those <65 years-old. There were significant differences in survival between patients stratified by the presence of a cardiac comorbidity and time period of diagnosis (Figure 2). The mortality rates improved from the 2006-2010 to the 2011-2014 time period among both groups (no cardiac comorbidity: 0.26 vs. 0.20 per 1,000 person-days, p<0.05; cardiac comorbidity: 0.48 vs. 0.37 per 1,000 person-days, p<0.05) (Table 1). Patients who were ≥65 and with a cardiac comorbidity had the worst survival in both time periods; however, mortality rates improved from the 2006-2010 to 2011-2014 time period for all groups stratified by age and presence of a cardiac comorbidity (Table 1). Conclusion: This real-world analysis showed improved survival over time in patients with MM. Improvements in survival were most pronounced for older patients with a cardiac comorbidity, suggesting that changes in disease management over time may have contributed to better outcomes even among the most vulnerable MM patients. With the recent FDA approval of new MM treatment options, tailoring treatment plans for patients based on specific risk factors is even more feasible and may help to further optimize disease management and continue the improvements in survival. Disclosures Maiese: Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC: Employment. Evans:Truven Health Analytics: Employment. Irwin:Truven Health Analytics: Employment.


2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (15) ◽  
pp. 2625-2634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm A. Smith ◽  
Nita L. Seibel ◽  
Sean F. Altekruse ◽  
Lynn A.G. Ries ◽  
Danielle L. Melbert ◽  
...  

Purpose This report provides an overview of current childhood cancer statistics to facilitate analysis of the impact of past research discoveries on outcome and provide essential information for prioritizing future research directions. Methods Incidence and survival data for childhood cancers came from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 9 (SEER 9) registries, and mortality data were based on deaths in the United States that were reported by states to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by underlying cause. Results Childhood cancer incidence rates increased significantly from 1975 through 2006, with increasing rates for acute lymphoblastic leukemia being most notable. Childhood cancer mortality rates declined by more than 50% between 1975 and 2006. For leukemias and lymphomas, significantly decreasing mortality rates were observed throughout the 32-year period, though the rate of decline slowed somewhat after 1998. For remaining childhood cancers, significantly decreasing mortality rates were observed from 1975 to 1996, with stable rates from 1996 through 2006. Increased survival rates were observed for all categories of childhood cancers studied, with the extent and temporal pace of the increases varying by diagnosis. Conclusion When 1975 age-specific death rates for children are used as a baseline, approximately 38,000 childhood malignant cancer deaths were averted in the United States from 1975 through 2006 as a result of more effective treatments identified and applied during this period. Continued success in reducing childhood cancer mortality will require new treatment paradigms building on an increased understanding of the molecular processes that promote growth and survival of specific childhood cancers.


2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
Ximo Mengual ◽  
France Gimnich ◽  
Hannah Petersen ◽  
Jonas J. Astrin

Abstract We examined the effects of different types of specimen labels and tags on pH of different concentrations of ethanol typically used for fluid preservation in natural history collections. Labels were immersed in three different concentrations of ethanol, 96% pure undenatured ethanol (EtOH), 96% EtOH denatured with methyl-ethyl ketone (MEK), and 99.8% pure undenatured EtOH, with or without the presence of insect specimens, and the solutions were evaluated after 26 months for changes over time in pH reading. In general, pH readings of all label trials with 96% and 99.8% ethanol increased over time, except for trials of denatured alcohol, which demonstrated lower pH readings in almost all treatments, regardless of label type. Samples that contained labels with ordinary, nonstandardized, not explicitly acid-free printing paper had higher pH readings compared after the trial. Our observations are a good starting point for further experiments to answer research questions related to chemical interactions with labels in ethanol-preserved specimens, including tissue samples for molecular analyses, which can guide collection staff in their daily work.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (29) ◽  
pp. eaba5908
Author(s):  
Nick Turner ◽  
Kaveh Danesh ◽  
Kelsey Moran

What is the relationship between infant mortality and poverty in the United States and how has it changed over time? We address this question by analyzing county-level data between 1960 and 2016. Our estimates suggest that level differences in mortality rates between the poorest and least poor counties decreased meaningfully between 1960 and 2000. Nearly three-quarters of the decrease occurred between 1960 and 1980, coincident with the introduction of antipoverty programs and improvements in medical care for infants. We estimate that declining inequality accounts for 18% of the national reduction in infant mortality between 1960 and 2000. However, we also find that level differences between the poorest and least poor counties remained constant between 2000 and 2016, suggesting an important role for policies that improve the health of infants in poor areas.


Author(s):  
Mark D. Davis ◽  
Scott Spreat ◽  
Ryan Cox ◽  
Matthew Holder ◽  
Kathryn M. Burke ◽  
...  

People with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) appear to have an increased probability of death from COVID-19 once infected. We report infection and mortality rates for people with IDD compared to the general population of eight states at two time points during the COVID-19 pandemic. Note that these eight states contain approximately 1/3 of the population of the United States. These data suggest individuals with IDD are less likely to be infected with the COVID-19 virus (5.62%) than the general public (7.57%). However, while mortality rates for both groups have declined over time, people with IDD are over twice as likely (2.29) to die from the infection as members of the general public.


Author(s):  
Jon Zelner ◽  
Rob Trangucci ◽  
Ramya Naraharisetti ◽  
Alex Cao ◽  
Ryan Malosh ◽  
...  

Background. As of August 5, 2020, there were more than 4.8M confirmed and probable cases and 159K deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, with these numbers undoubtedly reflecting a significant underestimate of the true toll. Geographic, racial-ethnic, age and socioeconomic disparities in exposure and mortality are key features of the first and second wave of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic. Methods. We used individual-level COVID-19 incidence and mortality data from the U.S. state of Michigan to estimate age-specific incidence and mortality rates by race/ethnic group. Data were analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian regression models, and model results were validated using posterior predictive checks. Findings. In crude and age-standardized analyses we found rates of incidence and mortality more than twice as high than Whites for all groups other than Native Americans. Of these, Blacks experienced the greatest burden of confirmed and probable COVID-19 infection (Age- standardized incidence = 1,644/100,000 population) and mortality (age-standardized mortality rate 251/100,000). These rates reflect large disparities, as Blacks experienced age-standardized incidence and mortality rates 5.6 (95% CI = 5.5, 5.7) and 6.9 (6.5, 7.3) times higher than Whites, respectively. We also found that the bulk of the disparity in mortality between Blacks and Whites is driven by dramatically higher rates of COVID-19 infection across all age groups, particularly among older adults, rather than age-specific variation in case-fatality rates. Interpretation. This work suggests that well-documented racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality in hard-hit settings, such as the U.S. state of Michigan, are driven primarily by variation in household, community and workplace exposure rather than case-fatality rates. Funding. This work was supported by a COVID-PODS grant from the Michigan Institute for Data Science (MIDAS) at the University of Michigan. The funding source had no role in the preparation of this manuscript.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hauer ◽  
Alexis R Santos-Lozada

Scientists and policy makers rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance due to the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts – the principal denominators for calculating age-specific mortality rates – will be subject to noise infusion in the United States with the 2020 Census via a disclosure avoidance system based on differential privacy. Using COVID-19 mortality curves from the CDC, we show that differential privacy will introduce substantial distortion in COVID-19 mortality rates – sometimes causing mortality rates to exceed 100\% -- hindering our ability to understand the pandemic. This distortion is particularly large for population groupings with fewer than 1000 persons – 40\% of all county-level age-sex groupings and 60\% of race groupings. The US Census Bureau should consider a larger privacy budget and data users should consider pooling data to increase population sizes to minimize differential privacy’s distortion.


2019 ◽  
Vol 111 (8) ◽  
pp. 863-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana R Withrow ◽  
Amy Berrington de González ◽  
Susan Spillane ◽  
Neal D Freedman ◽  
Ana F Best ◽  
...  

Abstract Disparities in cancer mortality by county-level income have increased. It is unclear whether these widening disparities have affected older and younger adults equally. National death certificate data were utilized to ascertain cancer deaths during 1999–2015. Average annual percent changes in mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by county-level income quintile and age (25–64 vs ≥65 years). Among 25- to 64-year-olds, cancer mortality rates were 30% higher (RR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.31) in the lowest-vs the highest-income counties in 1999–2001 and 56% higher (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.57) in 2013–2015; the disparities among those 65 years and older were smaller but also widened over time (RR1999–2001 = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.05; RR2013–2015 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.14). Widening disparities occurred across cancer sites. If all counties had the mortality rates of the highest-income counties, 21.5% of cancer deaths among 25- to 64-year-olds and 7.3% of cancer deaths in those 65 years and older would have been avoided in 2015. These results highlight an ongoing need for equity-focused interventions, particularly among younger adults.


Author(s):  
Chacha D Mangu ◽  
Susan F Rumisha ◽  
Emanuel P Lyimo ◽  
Irene R Mremi ◽  
Isolide S Massawe ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Globally, large numbers of children die shortly after birth and many of them within the first 4 wk of life. This study aimed to determine the trends, patterns and causes of neonatal mortality in hospitals in Tanzania during 2006–2015. Methods This retrospective study involved 35 hospitals. Mortality data were extracted from inpatient registers, death registers and International Classification of Diseases-10 report forms. Annual specific hospital-based neonatal mortality rates were calculated and discussed. Two periods of 2006–2010 and 2011–2015 were assessed separately to account for data availability and interventions. Results A total of 235 689 deaths were recorded and neonatal deaths accounted for 11.3% (n=26 630) of the deaths. The majority of neonatal deaths (87.5%) occurred in the first week of life. Overall hospital-based neonatal mortality rates increased from 2.6 in 2006 to 10.4 deaths per 1000 live births in 2015, with the early neonates contributing 90% to this rate constantly over time. The neonatal mortality rate was 3.7/1000 during 2006–2010 and 10.4/1000 during 2011–2015, both periods indicating a stagnant trend in the years between. The leading causes of early neonatal death were birth asphyxia (22.3%) and respiratory distress (20.8%), while those of late neonatal death were sepsis (29.1%) and respiratory distress (20.0%). Conclusion The majority of neonatal deaths in Tanzania occur among the early newborns and the trend over time indicates a slow improvement. Most neonatal deaths are preventable, hence there are opportunities to reduce mortality rates with improvements in service delivery during the first 7 d and maternal care.


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