scholarly journals Modelling and forecasting of the region’s environmental indicators

2020 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 13004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Ovchynnikova ◽  
Olha Dupliak ◽  
Olha Khan

The environmental situation in the Khmelnytskyi oblast has been analyzed, models and forecasts of indicators have been developed by methods of extrapolation, regression analysis and trend models, and the quality of forecasting has been estimated. Namely, the models of influence of selected factors on the environmental situation in the Khmelnytskyi oblast have been developed. Oneand multifactorial regression models have been constructed, conclusions about the degree of influence of factors have been made. Trend models of indicators of the ecological situation in the region have been constructed. Estimates of pollutant emissions, indicators of the creation and disposal of hazardous waste have been developed using different forecasting methods. These calculations can be used to carry out activities aimed at protecting the environment.

2019 ◽  
Vol 140 ◽  
pp. 09005
Author(s):  
Anton Radaev ◽  
Elena Korneeva

A model for substantiating the parameters of regression models for a comprehensive indicator of environmental pollution has been developed. A distinctive feature is the separate consideration of the influence of factors of the natural and industrial environment, as well as the linear nature of the interaction of nonlinear variables. The resulting model will allow us to analyze the current state of the environment depending on the quantity and quality of environmental indicators, and also identify critical changes in it. In the urban development industry, this model will help in planning the possibility of placing objects with a high environmental burden in a particular area.


Author(s):  
Aidin Pahlavan ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Kamani ◽  
Amir Hossein Elhamirad ◽  
Zahra Sheikholeslami ◽  
Mohammad Armin ◽  
...  

AbstractThis study was focused on the assessment of relationships among the properties of wheat and their resultant flour, dough and final bread. For this purpose, multivariate linear regression in the form of the step-wise algorithm was applied to evaluate the relation among the flour characteristics of wheat with quality of dough and the final breads (Barbari and Lavash). The results showed that variety of wheat (Orum, Pishgam, and Zareh) could not affect the moisture content and quantity of the flour residue; however, considerable variation was observed on protein content and Zeleny number. The multivariate regression analysis built appropriate models to predict the hardness of the Barbari bread (R2 = 0.98) and specific volume of the Lavash bread (R2 = 0.98). Overall, the results indicated that the regression models in the form of step-wise might be useful as a non-destructive technique for assessing quality of bread.


2019 ◽  
Vol 298 ◽  
pp. 00084
Author(s):  
I. A. Teterina ◽  
E. V. Parsaev

To assess the quality of road traffic organization on environmental indicators, two methods of five regulations operating in the Russian Federation, which take into account the parameters of traffic flow, affecting the volume of emissions Pollutants. The parameter that affects the results of calculations in both methods is the average speed of movement. In real-world conditions on urban highways there are areas where the traffic flow is uneven (braking, acceleration, stopping), which entails an increase in the amount of pollutants from vehicles. At the same time, this uneven traffic is largely due to the existing the road design and traffic engineering on certain elements of the road network. This is the basis for the development of a methodology for calculating pollutant emissions to assess the quality of the traffic engineering, taking into account the uneven flow of traffic.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Kingsley Okechukwu Dimuna ◽  
Abiodun Olukayode Olotuah

Poor housing and poor environmental quality have been associated with adverse effects on health of residents and their quality of life, emotional and psychological well-being. The quality of housing and building environment is therefore essential for residents’ residential satisfaction. This study analysises and examines the satisfaction levels of residents with housing and neighbourhood /building environment of six occupied housing estates in Benin City, Edo state, Nigeria. Data were collected in 2018 from six (6) housing estates located at; Oluku, Ugbowo, Oregbeni, Ikpoba Hill, Iyekogba-Ebo and Evbuoriaria. The data was obtained from sources within the study area using questionnaires, personal interviews and physical observations. The statistical tools used for analysis of data include: means, standard deviations, and categorical regression analysis. The results showed that there are variations in Relative Satisfaction Index (RSI) scores across the environmental dimensions examined for both the older and relatively newer estates. For the relatively newer estates such as Iyekogba, Oluku and Andrew Wilson result revealed that the residents are quite satisfied with Allocation for Recreation Centre (RCT) and Condition of Overcrowding (CO) with RSI scores ranging from 3.00-4.711; while those for the older estates such as Ikpoba Hill, BDPA and Oregbeni also appeared fairly satisfied 3.00-3.5. Regarding Condition of Overcrowding (CO), Refuse Disposal (RD), Level of Noise Pollution (LNP), Clean Kept Surrounding (CKS), Erosion Effect (EE), and Quality of Water (QW). Findings further revealed that RSI scores for the residents in Iyekogba, Andrew Wilson and Oluku are ranked higher indicating better satisfaction levels when compared to the RSI scores for the older estates. The results of Categorical Regression Analysis revealed that the estates environmental indicators impact positively and significantly at 5 percent (p= 0.003) on the satisfaction levels of residents. Hence efforts at improving environment of the state will directly influence residents’ satisfaction. Some measures that could enhance the quality of building environment and hence the satisfaction of residents were recommended. The study concludes that good planning and management of public housing estates are very vital because living in a decent housing and environment would lead to residents’ higher satisfaction level.


2019 ◽  
Vol 104 ◽  
pp. 01009
Author(s):  
Sergey Stradanchenko ◽  
Stanislav Maslennikov ◽  
Vladimir Dmitrienko ◽  
Irina Kokunko

The article presents the results of using information technologies in the study of changes of concrete characteristics at different hardening conditions. The use of the developed temperature measurement complexes made it possible to control the conditions of hardening of monolithic concrete structures directly under production conditions. The results by means of using regression analysis are obtained, regression models of the dependence of the compressive strength of concrete on time and hardening temperature are determined. A significant decrease in compressive strength and resistance to air penetration of concrete samples during their storage under conditions of significant temperature fluctuations has been established.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 686-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. V. Parsaev ◽  
P. N. Malyugin ◽  
I. A. Teterina

Introduction.Two methods among five in regulatory documents of the Russian Federation can be interested for assessing the quality of traffic management by environmental indicators. Only such methods take into account the parameters of the traffic flow that affect the volume of emissions. The parameter influencing the results of calculations in both methods is an average motion speed. Moreover, there are areas on urban highways, where traffic moves unevenly (braking, dispersal, stopping). Therefore, such factor entails an increase in the volume of emissions from vehicles. At the same time, this uneven movement is largely due to the existing organization of traffic (TO) on certain elements of the street-road network (SRN). Accordingly, the method for calculating pollutant emissions to assess the quality of TO, which take into account the unevenness of traffic flow, should be developed.Materials and methods. The paper proposes to take into account the average speed of traffic in those parts, where the traffic flow moves stationary, and on the elements of the main traffic line, where the traffic flow is non-stationary, and to take into account additional emissions. Moreover, the additional emission from the traffic flow should be considered separately in the following cases: if the cars stop (there are deceleration modes, idling and acceleration) and in the situation, when cars decrease their speed (slowdown and acceleration).Results.As a result, the difference between calculations of carbon monoxide emissions by the proposed method and by the GOST methodology is 57%, and for emissions of nitrogen oxides is 94%.Discussion and conclusion. The proposed methodology allows accurately assessing the quality of the TO on the section of the urban highway and its individual elements on environmental indicators. In addition, the proposed methodology would allow carrying out calculations for the evaluation of road traffic projects and activities, which aim to reduce the harmful impact of traffic on the environment of the highway areas.


Author(s):  
A. T. Kunakbaeva ◽  
A. M. Stolyarov ◽  
M. V. Potapova

Free-cutting steel gains specific working properties thanks to the high content of sulfur and phosphorus. These elements, especially sulfur, have a rather high tendency to segregation. Therefore, segregation defects in free-cutting steel continuously cast billets can be significantly developed. The aim of the work was to study the influence of the chemical composition of freecutting steel and casting technological parameters on the quality of the macrostructure of continuously cast billets. A metallographic assessment of the internal structure of cast metal made of free-cutting steel and data processing by application of correlation and regression analysis were the research methods. The array of production data of 43 heats of free-cutting steel of grade A12 was studied. Steel casting on a five-strand radial type continuous casting machine was carried out by various methods of metal pouring from tundish into the molds. Metal of 19 heats was poured with an open stream, and 24 heats – by a closed stream through submerged nozzles with a vertical hole. High-quality billets had a cross-sectional size of 150×150 mm. The macrostructure of high-quality square billets made of free-cutting steel of A12 grade is characterized by the presence of central porosity, axial segregation and peripheral point contamination, the degree of development of which was in the range from 1.5 to 2.0 points, segregation cracks and strips – about 1.0 points. In the course of casting with an open stream, almost all of these defects are more developed comparing with the casting by a closed stream. As a result of correlation and regression analysis, linear dependences of the development degree of segregation cracks and strips both axial and angular on the sulfur content in steel and on the ratio of manganese content to sulfur content were established. The degree of these defects development increases with growing of sulfur content in steel of A12 grade. These defects had especially strong development when sulfur content in steel was of more than 0.10%. To improve the quality of cast metal, it is necessary to have the ratio of the manganese content to the sulfur content in the metal more than eight.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-215
Author(s):  
Yoiz Shofwa Shafrani

Perkembangan dunia perbankan syariah tidak lepas dari peran para nasabah yang memberikan kepercayaan terhadap pihak perbankan untuk penyimpanan asset keuangannya. Faktanya banyak kelompok nasabah yang memutuskan untuk menjadi nasabah di perbankan syariah karena faktor religiusitasnya. Faktor lain yang dapat ikut mempengaruhi keputusan nasabah adalah kualitas produk. Di mana kualitas produk merupakan karakteristik yang melekat dari suatu produk. Kemungkinan yang terjadi bahwa kebanyakan nasabah pada perbankan syariah juga masih merupakan nasabah perbankan konvensional.Tujuan yang ingin dicapai dalam penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh kualitas produk dan tingkat religiusitas nasabah terhadap keputusan nasabah untuk menyimpan dananya atau tidak di BSM Cabang Purwokerto. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi linier berganda, dengan jumlah sampel 100 nasabah. Diperoleh hasil Y = 5,046 + 0,101X1 + 0,218X2. Berdasarkan uji F yang sudah dilakukan maka dapat diketahui bahwa variabel kualitas produk dan religiusitas secara bersama – sama berpengaruh terhadap keputusan nasabah untuk menyimpan dananya di BSM Cabang Purwokerto. Berdasarkan uji t yang sudah dilakukan dapat diketahui bahwa secara partial baik variabel kualitas produk maupun variabel religiusitas berpengaruh terhadap keputusan nasabah untuk menyimpan dananya di BSM Cabang Purwokerto. The progress of the Islamic bank cannot be separated from the role of its customers who give trust to the bank to deposit their financial assets. It is a fact many groups of customers decide to be the customers of the Islamic bank because of their religiosity. The other influences factor of a customer’s decision is the quality of the product. The aim of this research was to determine the effect of product quality and level of customers’ religiosity towards customers’ decision whether to keep their funds in Syariah Mandiri Bank, Branch of Purwokerto, or not. The analytical tool used was multiple linear regression analysis, with a sample of 100 customers. The results indicate Y = 5,046 + 0,101X1 + 0,218X2. Based on F, it can be seen that both variables of product quality and religiosity simultanously affect the customers’ decision to keep theirfunds in BSM Branch of Purwokerto. Based on t test, it can be seen that independently, either variable of product quality or variables of religiosityinfluences the customers’ decision to keep their funds in BSM Branch of Purwokerto.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 633-649
Author(s):  
G.T. Shkiperova ◽  
P.V. Druzhinin

Subject. Considering the existing environmental situation, it becomes especially important for the State to regulate the anthropogenic footprint on the environment in the Russian Federation. Current amendments to the legislative framework for environmental security are intended to ensure the innovative development of regions concurrently with a reduction in adverse environmental effects and more active environmental policy. Objectives. The research is to devise methodological tools to evaluate the efficiency of environmental policy in regions. Methods. The research employs qualitative and quantitative methods of economic analysis, including statistical and content analysis, rating, matrix zoning. The dataset proceeds from the Federal State Statistics Service, governmental reports on the current environmental situation and environmental protection in the Russian Federation. Results. We propose our own approach to evaluating the efficiency of environmental policy. It may help trace the correlation between the quality of strategic documents and changes in environmental indicators for a certain period, flag the challenging areas in terms of the environmental policy implementation and outline possible development paths. The approach extends the list of quantification indicators in line with those ones adopted internationally and presented in the Environmental Security Strategy of the Russian Federation up to 2025. We evaluated the efficiency of the environmental policy referring to the regions of the Northwestern Federal District for the period from 2012–2016. Conclusions. Having analyzed the evaluation results, most of the Northwestern regions tend to be controversial and ambivalent in setting environmental goals and achieving them. The findings may prove useful as the analytical and data basis for articulating the environmental and economic policy of the regions.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Coy ◽  
A.V. Shuravilin ◽  
O.A. Zakharova

Приведены результаты исследований по изучению влияния промышленной технологии возделывания картофеля на развитие, урожайность и качество продукции. Выявлена положительная реакция растений на подкормку K2SO4 в период посадки. Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ урожайности и качества клубней выявил высокую степень достоверности результатов опыта. Содержание нитратов и тяжелых металлов в клубнях было ниже допустимых величин.The results of studies on the impact of industrial technology of potato cultivation on growth, yield and quality of products. There was a positive response of plants to fertilizer K2SO4 in the period of planting. Correlation and regression analysis of yield and quality of tubers revealed a high degree of reliability of the results of experience. The contents of nitrates and heavy metals in tubers was below the permissible values.


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