P4151Changes in incidence and risk factors for heart failure over a 21-year follow-up period in two cohorts of middle aged men born 30 years apart

Background Several characteristics or conditions are associated with increased risk for heart failure (HF). In recent years we have witnessed gradually improved cardiovascular prevention and treatment. However, how the risk profile of HF has changed during the last decades remains inadequately studied. Purpose To compare risk factors for heart failure in two generations of middle-aged men from the general population born 30 years apart. Methods Two cohorts of randomly selected men born in 1913 (n=855) and in 1943 (n=798) and resident in Gothenburg, Sweden were first examined at 50 years of age in 1963 and 1993, respectively, and followed longitudinally over 21 years until age 71. Data about medical history, concomitant diseases and general health were collected by questionnaires, repeated medical examinations and review of individual medical records. The outcome was defined as hospitalization with HF as a discharge diagnosis or HF reported on the death certificate. Cox-regression analysis was used to examine the impact of baseline characteristics and time-updated atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease (IHD) and diabetes mellitus (DM) on the outcome. Furthermore the incidence of HF overall between the two cohorts was also compared. Significance was defined as p<0.05 for all two-sided tests, except for interaction terms where p<0.10 was applied. Results During a 21-year follow up, 80 men born in 1913 (9.4%) and 36 men born in 1943 (4.6%) developed HF. Men born in 1943 had a 52% lower risk for HF (adjusted HR 0.48 95% CI 0.29–0.77 p=0.003) compared to men born in 1913. Baseline characteristics associated with higher HF risk in both cohorts were higher body mass index (BMI) and the use of antihypertensive medication. Higher heart rate was associated with an increased risk only in men born 1913 whereas higher systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, higher glucose levels and higher total cholesterol levels were associated with higher risk in men born 1943. Onset of AF, IHD or DM was associated with higher HF risk in both cohorts. Multivariable models using stepwise regression showed that AF, IHD, higher BMI (continuous variable), use of antihypertensive medication and higher heart rate (piecewise linear) were independent predictors for HF in men born in 1913 whereas AF, higher glucose levels, IHD and higher SBP (piecewise linear) in men born in 1943. Finally, interaction analyses showed that in comparison with those born in 1913, the relative importance as risk factors for HF among those born in 1943 has decreased for AF whereas it has increased for systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. Of note, impact of IHD as risk factor decreased numerically, and that of physical activity increased, but for both without reaching statistical significance. Cox proportional hazard analysis Conclusions The incidence of HF in middle aged men living in Gothenburg has decreased during the last decades, and in the meantime risk profile for incident HF has also changed.