The ambiguous fault geometry derived from InSAR measurements of buried thrust earthquakes: a synthetic data based study

2021 ◽  
Vol 225 (3) ◽  
pp. 1799-1811
Author(s):  
Yingfeng Zhang ◽  
Xinjian Shan ◽  
Wenyu Gong ◽  
Guohong Zhang

SUMMARY The challenge of ruling out potential rupture nodal planes with opposite dip orientations during interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-based kinematic inversions has been widely reported. Typically, slip on two or more different fault planes can match the surface deformation measurements equally well. The ambiguous choice of the nodal plane for the InSAR-based models was thought to be caused by InSAR's 1-D measurement and polar orbiting direction, leading to its poor sensitivity to north–south crustal motion. Through synthetic experiments and simulations, this paper quantitatively demonstrates the main reason of the ambiguous InSAR-based models, which confuse researchers in the small-to-moderate thrust earthquake cases investigation. We propose the inherent 1-D measurement is not the principle cause of the fault plane ambiguity, since models derived from the same InSAR data predict similar, but not identical, 3-D deformation patterns. They key to differentiating between these different models is to be able to resolve the small asymmetry in the surface deformation pattern, which may be smaller in amplitude than the typical noise levels in InSAR measurements. We investigate the fault geometry resolvability when using InSAR data with different noise levels through ‘R’ value. We find that the resolvability does not only rely on the InSAR noise, but also on the fault geometry itself (i.e. depth, dips angle and strike). Our result shows that it is impossible to uniquely determine the dip orientation of thrust earthquakes with Mw < 6.0 and depth > 5.0 km with InSAR data at a noise level that is typical for mountain belts. This inference is independent from the specific data set (i.e. interferogram or time-series) and allows one to assess if one can expect to be able to resolve the correct fault plane at all.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eszter Szűcs ◽  
Sándor Gönczy ◽  
István Bozsó ◽  
László Bányai ◽  
Alexandru Szakacs ◽  
...  

Abstract. Rocksalt has remarkable mechanical properties and a high economic importance, however, this strength of salt compared to other rocks makes it a rather vulnerable material. Human activities could lead to acceleration of the dissolution of soluble rocksalt and collapse of subsurface caverns. Although sinkhole development can be considered local geological disaster regarding the characteristic size of surface depressions the deformations can result in catastrophic events. In this study we report the spatiotemporal evolution of surface deformation in Solotvyno salt mine area in Ukraine based on Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements. Although the mining operations were finished in 2010 several sinkholes have been opened up since then. Our results show that even though the enormous risk managing efforts the sinkholes continue to expand with a maximum line-of-sight deformation rate of 5 cm/yr. The deformation time series show a rather linear feature and unfortunately no slowdown of the processes can be recognized based on the investigated 4.5 year-long data set. We utilized both ascending and descending satellite passes to discriminate the horizontal and vertical deformations and our results revealed that vertical deformation is much more dominant in the area. With the 6-day repetition time of Sentinel-1 observations the evolution of surface changes can be detected in quasi real-time which can facilitate disaster response and recovery.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Håvard Svanes Bertelsen ◽  
Frank Guldstrand ◽  
Sigmundsson Freysteinn ◽  
Rikke Pedersen ◽  
Karen Mair ◽  
...  

<p><span>Geodetic modelling has become an established procedure to interpret the dynamics of active volcanic plumbing systems. Most established geodetic models implemented for inverting geodetic data share similar physical assumptions: (1) the Earth's crust is modelled as an infinite, homogeneous elastic half-space with a flat surface, (2) there is no anisotropic horizontal stress to simulate tectonic stresses, (3) the source boundary conditions are kinematic, i.e., they account for an instantaneous inflation or deflation of the source. Field and geophysical observations, however, provide evidence that significant inelastic shear deformation of the host rock can accommodate the propagation of dykes and sills. We show that inelastic processes accommodating the emplacement of dykes in the brittle crust have large implications for dyke-induced surface deformation patterns. </span></p><p><span>We present two quantitative laboratory experiments that simulate two distinct dyke emplacement mechanisms, in agreement with geological and geophysical observations: (1) dyke propagation as a tensile fracture through a dominantly elastic host in gelatin, and (2) dyke propagation in the silica flour as viscous indenter, which pushes its ahead plastic host that dominantly fails in shear. The syn-emplacement surface deformation is monitored during each experiment. Each dyke emplacement mechanism triggers drastically distinct surface deformation patterns: two uplifting bulges separated by a trough in the gelatin experiment, in good agreement with the expected dyke-induced deformation predicted by the rectangular dislocation model, versus a single uplifting elongated bulge above the apex of the dyke in the silica flour experiment. This first-order difference shows that (1) the rheology of the host and the emplacement mechanisms of dykes are key factors for interpreting dyke-induced geodetic data at active volcanoes, and (2) static, kinematic geodetic models, such as the rectangular dislocation model, have limitations for revealing the physics and dynamics of volcanic plumbing systems. </span></p><p><span>There is no geodetic model associated with dyke emplacement able to reproduce the single uplifting bulge measured in our silica flour experiment. Instead, such surface deformation pattern is usually fitted with geodetic models of inflating spherical, ellipsoidal or horizontal planar sources. Our silica flour experiment thus shows that (1) a successful data fit is not sufficient and does not imply a physically relevant interpretation, and (2) dykes emplaced as viscous indenters should be considered as an alternative interpretation of single uplifting bulges measured at active volcanoes. This implies that novel geodetic models accounting for dykes emplaced as viscous indenters should be designed to interpret dyke-induced surface deformation patterns in favorable geological settings, e.g. felsic volcanoes. </span></p><p><span>In summary, our study motivates the design of new geodetic models that move beyond elasticity, i.e. that account for the realistic elasto-plastic mechanical behavior we know occurs in the Earth's brittle crust. In addition, it highlights the added value of our </span><span><em>laboratory volcano geodesy</em></span><span> approach, which can be the foundation for designing novel geodetic models that accounts for processes that cannot be implemented in numerical models. </span></p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Spang ◽  
Tobias Baumann ◽  
Boris Kaus

<p>For the past decades, several numerical studies have successfully reproduced the concentric uplift pattern observed above the Altiplano-Puna Magma Body (APMB) in the central Andes. However, the temperature- and strain rate-dependent viscoelastoplastic rheology of rocks, the buoyancy of magma, the effects of modelling in 3D as well as the shape of the magma body have often been simplified or neglected.</p><p>Here, we use a joint interpretation of seismic imaging and gravity anomalies to constrain location, 3D shape and density of the magma body. With the help of the thermo-mechanical finite difference code LaMEM, we then model the surface deformation and test our results against observations made by Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) missions. This way, we gain insights into the dynamics and rheology of the present-day magmatic system and can test how a change to the current conditions (e.g., magma influx) could impact it.</p><p>We find that only an APMB with a maximum thickness of 14 to 18 km and a corresponding density contrast to the surrounding host rock of 100 to 175 kg/m<sup>3</sup> satisfies both tomography and Bouguer data. Based on that and the chemistry of eruption products, we estimate the melt content of the APMB to be on the order of 20 - 25%. We also find that the observed uplift can be reproduced by magma-induced buoyancy forces without the need for an additional pressure source or magma injection within the mush, and that the geometry of the top of the magma body exerts a major control on the deformation pattern at the surface.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 977-993
Author(s):  
Eszter Szűcs ◽  
Sándor Gönczy ◽  
István Bozsó ◽  
László Bányai ◽  
Alexandru Szakacs ◽  
...  

Abstract. Rock salt has remarkable mechanical properties and high economic importance; however, the strength of salt compared to other rocks makes it a rather vulnerable material. Human activities could lead to acceleration of the dissolution of soluble rock salt and collapse of subsurface caverns. Although sinkhole development can be considered a local geological disaster regarding the characteristic size of surface depressions, the deformations can result in catastrophic events. In this study we report the spatiotemporal evolution of surface deformation in the Solotvyno salt mine area in Ukraine based on Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements. Although the mining operations were finished in 2010, several sinkholes have been opened up since then. Our results show that despite the enormous risk management efforts, the sinkholes continue to expand with a maximum line-of-sight deformation rate of 5 cm/yr. The deformation time series show a rather linear feature, and unfortunately no slowdown of the processes can be recognized based on the investigated 4.5-year-long data set. We utilized both ascending and descending satellite passes to discriminate the horizontal and vertical deformations, and our results revealed that vertical deformation is much more pronounced in the area. Analytical source modeling confirmed that the complex deformation pattern observed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry has a direct connection to the former mining activity and is confined to the mining territory. With the 6 d repetition time of Sentinel-1 observations, the evolution of surface changes can be detected in quasi real time, which can facilitate disaster response and recovery.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanja Kastelic ◽  
Simone Atzori ◽  
Michele M. C. Carafa ◽  
Marin Marin Govorčin ◽  
Davorka Herak ◽  
...  

<p>The ongoing Petrinja earthquake sequence interests a structurally complex area characterized by the transition between the Dinarides and the Pannonian Basin structural units. The sequence mainshock (December 29, 2020; Mw = 6.4) struck in the vicinity of the Petrinja town and caused significant damage in the human and in the natural environments. The preliminary seismological and geodetic analyses indicated a dextral strike-slip NW-SE oriented fault as the event source. Numerous geologic surface deformation patterns have been identified in the aftermath of the main event, including collapsed sinkholes, liquefaction, different forms of landslides, and surface fractures which nature and causative process require further detailed studies.<br>The aim of our contribution is to apply a multitude of different geophysical, geodetic and geologic methodologies to decipher the Petrinja seismogenic fault geometry in the light of its ongoing earthquake sequence. We will show how the different datasets converge in delineating the fault geometry and discuss their diverging aspects and implications. Our preliminary analyses on the geometric and kinematic characteristics of the mainshock (as well as those of the foreshocks and aftershocks) point to an important structural complexity. This aspect helps us to better understand the seismotectonic framework of the Petrinja seismogenic fault and other regional seismogenic faults of similar geologic and geodynamic setting.</p>


Author(s):  
Z. Jing ◽  
F. Bihong ◽  
S. Pilong ◽  
G. Qiang

The western Mongolia is a seismically active intracontinental region, with ongoing tectonic deformation and widespread seismicity related to the far-field effects of India-Eurasia collision. During the 20th century, four earthquakes with the magnitude larger than 8 occurred in the western Mongolia and its surrounding regions, providing a unique opportunity to study the geodynamics of intracontinental tectonic deformations. The 1957 magnitude 8.3 Gobi-Altai earthquake is one of the largest seismic events. The deformation pattern of rupture zone associated with this earthquake is complex, involving left-lateral strike-slip and reverse dip-slip faulting on several distinct geological structures in a 264&amp;thinsp;×&amp;thinsp;40&amp;thinsp;km wide zone. To understand the relationship between the observed postseismic surface deformation and the rheological structure of the upper lithosphere, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data are used to study the 1957 earthquake. Then we developed a postseismic model in a spherical, radially layered elastic-viscoelastic Earth based on InSAR results, and further analysed the dominant contribution to the surface deformation. This work is important for understanding not only the regional tectonics, but also the structure and dynamics of the lithosphere. <br><br> SAR data were acquired from the ERS1/2 and Envisat from 1996 to 2010. Using the Repeat Orbit Interferometry Package (ROI_PAC), 124 postseismic interferograms are produced on four adjacent tracks. By stacking these interferograms, the maximum InSAR line-of-sight deformation rate along the Gobi-Altai fault zone is obtained. The main results are as follows: (1) The maximum InSAR line-of-sight deformation velocity along this large fault zone is about 6&amp;thinsp;mm/yr; (2) The modelled surface deformation suggests that the viscoelastic relaxation is the most reasonable mechanism to explain the observed surface motion; (3) The optimal model cover the Gobi-Altai seismogenic thickness is 10&amp;thinsp;km; (4) The lower bound of Maxwell viscosity of lower crust and upper mantle is approximately 9&amp;thinsp;×&amp;thinsp;10<sup>19</sup>&amp;thinsp;Pa&amp;thinsp;s, and the Maxwell relaxation time corresponding to this viscosity is 95.13 years.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuela Valerio ◽  
Pietro Tizzani ◽  
Eugenio Carminati ◽  
Carlo Doglioni ◽  
Susi Pepe ◽  
...  

We investigate the Mw 6.5 Norcia (Central Italy) earthquake by exploiting seismological data, DInSAR measurements, and a numerical modelling approach. In particular, we first retrieve the vertical component (uplift and subsidence) of the displacements affecting the hangingwall and the footwall blocks of the seismogenic faults identified, at depth, through the hypocenters distribution analysis. To do this, we combine the DInSAR measurements obtained from coseismic SAR data pairs collected by the ALOS-2 sensor from ascending and descending orbits. The achieved vertical deformation map displays three main deformation patterns: (i) a major subsidence that reaches the maximum value of about 98 cm near the epicentral zones nearby the town of Norcia; (ii) two smaller uplift lobes that affect both the hangingwall (reaching maximum values of about 14 cm) and the footwall blocks (reaching maximum values of about 10 cm). Starting from this evidence, we compute the rock volumes affected by uplift and subsidence phenomena, highlighting that those involved by the retrieved subsidence are characterized by significantly higher deformation values than those affected by uplift (about 14 times). In order to provide a possible interpretation of this volumetric asymmetry, we extend our analysis by applying a 2D numerical modelling approach based on the finite element method, implemented in a structural-mechanic framework, and exploiting the available geological and seismological data, and the ground deformation measurements retrieved from the multi-orbit ALOS-2 DInSAR analysis. In this case, we consider two different scenarios: the first one based on a single SW-dipping fault, the latter on a main SW-dipping fault and an antithetic zone. In this context, the model characterized by the occurrence of an antithetic zone presents the retrieved best fit coseismic surface deformation pattern. This result allows us to interpret the subsidence and uplift phenomena caused by the Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake as the result of the gravitational sliding of the hangingwall along the main fault plane and the frictional force acting in the opposite direction, consistently with the double couple fault plane mechanism.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Spang ◽  
Tobias Baumann ◽  
Boris Kaus

Continuous Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) monitoring (> 25 years) has revealed a concentric surface deformation pattern above the Altiplano-Puna magma body (APMB) in the central Andes. Here, we use a joint interpretation of seismic imaging, gravity anomalies and InSAR data to constrain location, 3D geometry and density of the magma body. By combining gravity modelling, thermomechanical modelling, scaling law analysis and Bayesian inference, we are able to create a relationship between the geometry of a mid-crustal magma body and surface observations. Furthermore, we can estimate the uncertainties associated with the geometry of the APMB and identify the most important parameters that control the dynamics of the system. We constrain the density contrast between the APMB and the surrounding host rock to 90 - 130 kg m−3 (2σ) and the associated melt fraction to 15 - 22 %. Our visco-elasto-plastic 3D thermomechanical model reproduces the observed surface deformation self-consistently by buoyancy driven magma transport without the need for additional pressure sources. The flow pattern is controlled by a central rise at the top of the APMB whose geometry can be constrained with the help of InSAR observations while Bouguer anomalies constrain the deeper parts of the APMB. Automated scaling law analysis shows that the rheology of the upper crust and the magma mush as well as the density contrast between the two are the most important parameters in the system and need to be constrained for a better understanding of the subsurface processes.


Author(s):  
Raul E. Avelar ◽  
Karen Dixon ◽  
Boniphace Kutela ◽  
Sam Klump ◽  
Beth Wemple ◽  
...  

The calibration of safety performance functions (SPFs) is a mechanism included in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) to adjust SPFs in the HSM for use in intended jurisdictions. Critically, the quality of the calibration procedure must be assessed before using the calibrated SPFs. Multiple resources to aid practitioners in calibrating SPFs have been developed in the years following the publication of the HSM 1st edition. Similarly, the literature suggests multiple ways to assess the goodness-of-fit (GOF) of a calibrated SPF to a data set from a given jurisdiction. This paper uses the calibration results of multiple intersection SPFs to a large Mississippi safety database to examine the relations between multiple GOF metrics. The goal is to develop a sensible single index that leverages the joint information from multiple GOF metrics to assess overall quality of calibration. A factor analysis applied to the calibration results revealed three underlying factors explaining 76% of the variability in the data. From these results, the authors developed an index and performed a sensitivity analysis. The key metrics were found to be, in descending order: the deviation of the cumulative residual (CURE) plot from the 95% confidence area, the mean absolute deviation, the modified R-squared, and the value of the calibration factor. This paper also presents comparisons between the index and alternative scoring strategies, as well as an effort to verify the results using synthetic data. The developed index is recommended to comprehensively assess the quality of the calibrated intersection SPFs.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Elahe Jamalinia ◽  
Faraz S. Tehrani ◽  
Susan C. Steele-Dunne ◽  
Philip J. Vardon

Climatic conditions and vegetation cover influence water flux in a dike, and potentially the dike stability. A comprehensive numerical simulation is computationally too expensive to be used for the near real-time analysis of a dike network. Therefore, this study investigates a random forest (RF) regressor to build a data-driven surrogate for a numerical model to forecast the temporal macro-stability of dikes. To that end, daily inputs and outputs of a ten-year coupled numerical simulation of an idealised dike (2009–2019) are used to create a synthetic data set, comprising features that can be observed from a dike surface, with the calculated factor of safety (FoS) as the target variable. The data set before 2018 is split into training and testing sets to build and train the RF. The predicted FoS is strongly correlated with the numerical FoS for data that belong to the test set (before 2018). However, the trained model shows lower performance for data in the evaluation set (after 2018) if further surface cracking occurs. This proof-of-concept shows that a data-driven surrogate can be used to determine dike stability for conditions similar to the training data, which could be used to identify vulnerable locations in a dike network for further examination.


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