Synopsis

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. O. Emery ◽  
David Neev
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Global Oceans ◽  
North And South ◽  
Lisan Formation

The two large lakes named Samra and Lisan existed in the Dead Sea graben from 350,000 to 120,000B.p. and 60,000 to 12,000B.p. Their sediments tentatively are correlated with the European Riss and Würm glacial epochs. Thick marls are the chief sediments in the deep water north basin. Rocksalt deposition dominated within the troughs of both north and south basins throughout the intervening Riss-Würm Interglacial stage. Lithology of Lisan Formation (Würm) in that basin indicates rapid and extreme fluctuations of level. Eight major climatic cycles are recorded during Würm glaciation when the level fluctuated between -180 m m.s.l. and probably lower than -400 m m.s.l. Rocksalt was deposited within both basins during warm dry phases of the Lisan stage. At the present state of knowledge no specific tectonic or volcanic activities can be tied to these climatic events. The Holocene Period was similar lithologically to that of the Lisan Formation and transition between them was gradual. Primarily the difference between the two was change in relative time span between alternate wet and dry phases. Dry phases of Holocene gradually became longer while wet ones with Dead Sea transgressions became shorter. Tectonic regimes during the first part—the Natufian age to Early Bronze III, 12,000 to 4400 B.P.—seem to have been milder than later ones, end of Early Bronze III to the present. The severe earthquake that destroyed Sodom and Gomorrah in 4350 B.P. was followed by a 300-year long subphase of gradually warming climate that became extremely dry during the latter part of the Intermediate Bronze age. Climatic Wet Phase III began about 3900 B.P. It was the longest, about 800 years, and most intense wet phase of Holocene and it probably was associated with volcanism. No abrupt cultural or demographic changes are known during transition from Epi-Paleolithic or Geometric Kebaran from the last glacial phase of the Pleistocene Period through Natufian to the early part of Holocene Pre-Pottery Neolithic. The reason for this stability is not clear especially because average temperatures of global oceans during the latest Pleistocene glaciation were appreciably lower than those during Early Holocene (Emiliani, 1978).

scholarly journals Radiocarbon Reservoir Ages as Freshwater-Brine Monitors in Lake Lisan, Dead Sea System

Radiocarbon ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 1050-1057 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mordechai Stein ◽  
Boaz Lazar ◽  
Steven L Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Lower Layer ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Brine Solution ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Reservoir Age ◽  
Lisan Formation ◽  
Apparent Age ◽  
The Last Glacial

A continuous and high-resolution record of the radiocarbon reservoir age (RA) has been recovered from the primary aragonites that were deposited from the last glacial Lake Lisan. The RA is calculated as the difference between the measured 14C “apparent” age in the aragonite and the atmospheric age at any particular time. The RA shows temporal decreases during the time interval of ≃28 to ≃18 ka cal BP. This behavior is attributed to a continuous addition of low RA-high bicarbonate freshwater into the high RA-Ca-chloride (low bicarbonate) brine solution filling the lake. The mixing of the brine with freshwater drives the precipitation of CaCO3 in the form of aragonite from the lake epilimnion (surface layer). The runoff-brine mixture in Lake Lisan is also reflected by the Sr/Ca ratios that are positively correlated with the RA. Nevertheless, the 14C content in the epilimnion did not drop at the same rate as the atmospheric value but rather remained nearly constant. We suggest that turbulent mixing with the much saltier hypolimnion (lower layer) across the hypolimnion/epilimnion interface at a depth of about 390 m below sea level, buffered the 14C content as well as the Sr and Ca concentrations in the aragonite precipitating solution. The RA-Sr/Ca related limnological model developed here opens the way to determine the reservoir-age-corrected atmospheric ages of Lisan Formation aragonites beyond 28 ka cal BP.

Smart Estimation Ver-H.1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Weight Factor ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Value ◽  
The Difference

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.

scholarly journals Efficacy of BRAF and MEK Inhibition in Patients with BRAF-Mutant Advanced Melanoma and Germline CDKN2A Pathogenic Variants

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2440
Author(s):  
Francesco Spagnolo ◽  
Bruna Dalmasso ◽  
Enrica Tanda ◽  
Miriam Potrony ◽  
Susana Puig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Suppressor Gene ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Clinical Activity ◽  
P Value ◽  
Pathogenic Variants ◽  
Phase Iii Trials ◽  
The Difference ◽  
First Time

Inherited pathogenic variants (PVs) in the CDKN2A tumor suppressor gene are among the strongest risk factors for cutaneous melanoma. Dysregulation of the p16/RB1 pathway may intrinsically limit the activity of MAPK-directed therapy due to the interplay between the two pathways. In our study, we assessed, for the first time, whether patients with germline CDKN2A PVs achieve suboptimal results with BRAF inhibitors (BRAFi)+/−MEK inhibitors (MEKi). We compared the response rate of nineteen CDKN2A PVs carriers who received first-line treatment with BRAFi+/−MEKi with an expected rate derived from phase III trials and “real-world” studies. We observed partial response in 16/19 patients (84%), and no complete responses. The overall response rate was higher than that expected from phase III trials (66%), although not statistically significant (p-value = 0.143; 95% CI = 0.60–0.97); the difference was statistically significant (p-value = 0.019; 95% CI = 0.62–0.97) in the comparison with real-world studies (57%). The clinical activity of BRAFi+/−MEKi in patients with germline CDKN2A PV was not inferior to that of clinical trials and real-world studies, which is of primary importance for clinical management and genetic counseling of this subgroup of patients.

Q-TWiST analysis of tivozanib (T) versus sorafenib (S) in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in the TIVO-3 study.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 298-298
Author(s):  
Michael Szarek ◽  
Michael N. Needle ◽  
Brian I. Rini ◽  
Sumanta K. Pal ◽  
David F. McDermott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Progression Free Survival ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
P Value ◽  
Patient Centered ◽  
Health States ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Phase Iii Study ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Similar Survival ◽  
Mean Differences

298 Background: In the randomized phase III study TIVO-3, the VEGFR-TKI tivozanib (TIVO) increased progression-free survival with better tolerability but no difference in overall survival (OS) relative to sorafenib (SORA) as third- or fourth-line therapy in patients with metastatic RCC. These results provide motivation to apply quality-adjusted time without symptoms of disease and toxicity (Q-TWiST) methods to quantify the net health benefits of TIVO, in the presence of similar survival, when compared to SORA. Methods: In application of Q-TWiST, patient-level OS was subdivided into three mutually exclusive states: time with toxicity (TOX), time without symptoms and toxicity (TWiST), and time after progression/relapse (REL). Mean Q-TWiST was calculated by applying utility coefficients of 0.5, 1.0, and 0.5 to the restricted mean (max 36 months follow-up) health states of TOX, TWiST, and REL, respectively; 95% CIs for the means and mean differences were estimated by bootstrap distributions. Relative Q-TWiST gain was defined as the mean absolute Q-TWiST difference divided by the SORA mean OS. Results: Mean TWiST was significantly longer for TIVO than for SORA (10.30 months v.5.35 months; Table). Mean REL time was significantly shorter for TIVO, with no difference in mean TOX time. Mean Q-TWiST was 15.04 and 12.78 months for TIVO and SORA, respectively, a statistically significant difference (p=0.0493). The relative gain for TIVO was 11.2%. Clinical trial information: NCT02627963 . Values in table are mean (95% CI) in months or p-value for difference in treatment group means. Conclusions: The difference in Q-TWiST in TIVO-3 was primarily driven by benefits of TIVO in TWiST, partially offset by superiority of SORA in REL time. As a third- or fourth-line treatment for RCC, TIVO significantly increased Q-TWiST relative to SORA, primarily through an increase in TWiST, which is generally considered to be the state with highest utility to patients. Consequently, Q-TWiST may be considered an alternative patient-centered measure of benefit of TIVO in these settings. [Table: see text]

The Difference of Being Overweight or Obese between the North and South of China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisheng Tang ◽  
Tao Bu ◽  
Yahong Liu ◽  
Xuefan Dong
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Nutrition Survey ◽  
High Intake ◽  
Related Information ◽  
The North ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Difference ◽  
North And South

Abstract Objectives: The geographical environment, dietary culture, food patterns, and obesity rates are substantially different between the North and South of China. Determining the geographical distribution and local dietary patterns involved in being overweight or obese is useful for designing intervention strategies. Methods: Residents between 18 and 65 years old (n=10,863) from 11 Chinese provinces (five Northern provinces and six Southern provinces) were selected to compare dietary patterns, BMI, and health-related information from the China Health and Nutrition Survey packages in 2011. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the strength of the association among geographic variables, the obesity problem, and dietary patterns. Results: The overall prevalence of being overweight or obese was 10.51% higher in the North than in the South. Northern dietary patterns feature a high intake of wheat and soybeans, whereas Southern dietary patterns feature a high intake of rice, vegetables, meat, and poultry. The estimated coefficient of regional variables surrounding dietary score is 1.494; surrounding the odds ratio for being overweight is 1.681, whereas surrounding the odds ratio for obesity is 2.035. Multivariate logistic regression including both the variable of South–North areas and Northern dietary patterns showed a significant correlation with being overweight or obese. Conclusion: Northern areas and their local dietary patterns are more likely to contribute to being overweight or obese. These findings provide support for tracking the progression of obesity, epidemics, and policies that target the ‘‘obesogenic’’ environment, promoting opportunities for persons to access healthy dietary patterns and nutritional balance.

scholarly journals Measuring the local dark matter density with LAMOST DR5 and Gaia DR2

2020 ◽  
Vol 495 (4) ◽  
pp. 4828-4844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Guo ◽  
Chao Liu ◽  
Shude Mao ◽  
Xiang-Xiang Xue ◽  
R J Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dark Matter ◽  
Azimuthal Angle ◽  
Matter Density ◽  
Dwarf Stars ◽  
Dark Matter Density ◽  
The North ◽  
Vertical Data ◽  
Data Release ◽  
The Difference ◽  
North And South

ABSTRACT We apply the vertical Jeans equation to the kinematics of Milky Way stars in the solar neighbourhood to measure the local dark matter density. More than 90 000 G- and K-type dwarf stars are selected from the cross-matched sample of LAMOST (Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope) fifth data release and Gaia second data release for our analyses. The mass models applied consist of a single exponential stellar disc, a razor thin gas disc, and a constant dark matter density. We first consider the simplified vertical Jeans equation that ignores the tilt term and assumes a flat rotation curve. Under a Gaussian prior on the total stellar surface density, the local dark matter density inferred from Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations is $0.0133_{-0.0022}^{+0.0024}\ {\rm M}_{\odot }\, {\rm pc}^{-3}$. The local dark matter densities for subsamples in an azimuthal angle range of −10° < ϕ < 5° are consistent within their 1σ errors. However, the northern and southern subsamples show a large discrepancy due to plateaux in the northern and southern vertical velocity dispersion profiles. These plateaux may be the cause of the different estimates of the dark matter density between the north and south. Taking the tilt term into account has little effect on the parameter estimations and does not explain the north and south asymmetry. Taking half of the difference of σz profiles as unknown systematic errors, we then obtain consistent measurements for the northern and southern subsamples. We discuss the influence of the vertical data range, the scale height of the tracer population, the vertical distribution of stars, and the sample size on the uncertainty of the determination of the local dark matter density.

Mid-Holocene drylands: A multi-model analysis using Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations

The Holocene ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 1425-1438
Author(s):  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Dabang Jiang ◽  
Xianmei Lang
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Collective Effects ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ◽  
Paleoclimate Modelling

This study examines changes in aridity levels during the mid-Holocene (approximately 6000 cal. yr ago) using multi-model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III. Overall, there is little difference in the total area of drylands from the preindustrial period; global drylands are 8% wetter than during the preindustrial period as measured by an aridity index; and 16% of preindustrial drylands convert to a wetter climate subtype, double the sum of zones that are replaced by a drier category. Considerable variations are present among regions with major contractions of each dryland subtype from northern Africa to South Asia and the main expansions of arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid climates in southern hemisphere continents. The difference in precipitation is the leading factor of the aforementioned changes. The second factor is the altered potential evapotranspiration as mainly induced by relative humidity, which contributes to additional aridity changes in a same direction as precipitation does. The collective effects of precipitation and relative humidity account for more than 80% of the dryland variations. In comparison, the simulated aridity change is in reasonable agreement with reconstructions, while there are model–data discrepancies for Australia and uncertainties across proxies for southern Africa.

scholarly journals Time-dependent prediction degredation assessment of neural-networks-based TEC forecasting models

2003 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 585-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Th. D. Xenos ◽  
S. S. Kouris ◽  
A. Casimiro
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Faraday Rotation ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Error Margin ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Tec Variability

Abstract. An estimation of the difference in TEC prediction accuracy achieved when the prediction varies from 1 h to 7 days in advance is described using classical neural networks. Hourly-daily Faraday-rotation derived TEC measurements from Florence are used. It is shown that the prediction accuracy for the examined dataset, though degrading when time span increases, is always high. In fact, when a relative prediction error margin of ± 10% is considered, the population percentage included therein is almost always well above the 55%. It is found that the results are highly dependent on season and the dataset wealth, whereas they highly depend on the foF2 - TEC variability difference and on hysteresis-like effect between these two ionospheric characteristics.

RADIOCARBON RESERVOIR AGES IN THE HOLOCENE DEAD SEA

Radiocarbon ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 1453-1473
Author(s):  
Nurit Weber ◽  
Boaz Lazar ◽  
Ofra Stern ◽  
George Burr ◽  
Ittai Gavrieli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Radiocarbon Age ◽  
The Past ◽  
Organic Debris ◽  
The Dead ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Continuous Deposition

ABSTRACTThe sources and fate of radiocarbon (14C) in the Dead Sea hypersaline solution are evaluated with 14C measurements in organic debris and primary aragonite collected from exposures of the Holocene Ze’elim Formation. The reservoir age (RA) is defined as the difference between the radiocarbon age of the aragonite at time of its precipitation (representing lakeʼs dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC]) and the age of contemporaneous organic debris (representing atmospheric radiocarbon). Evaluation of the data for the past 6000 yr from Dead Sea sediments reveal that the lakeʼs RA decreased from 2890 yr at 6 cal kyr BP to 2300 yr at present. The RA lies at ~2400 yr during the past 3000 yr, when the lake was characterized by continuous deposition of primary aragonite, which implies a continuous supply of freshwater-bicarbonate into the lake. This process reflects the overall stability of the hydrological-climate conditions in the lakeʼs watershed during the late Holocene where bicarbonate originated from dissolution of the surface cover in the watershed that was transported to the Dead Sea by the freshwater runoff. An excellent correlation (R2=0.98) exists between aragonite ages and contemporaneous organic debris, allowing the estimation of ages of various primary deposits where organic debris are not available.

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